Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing
ParameterValue
alpha0.0304170259767769
beta0.0307214113242084
gamma0.111940615200318


Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing
tObservedFittedResiduals
1356.822553.16083014957273.66166985042734
1442.547738.93899265387773.60870734612229
1532.410629.74022345053962.67037654946039
1632.164430.96594710894281.19845289105722
1732.413531.63177745958330.781722540416734
184.868632.446650929384782.42197907061522
196.784362.743263519289384.04109648071062
203.380382.617705230817550.762674769182455
217.381524.1295964551131-16.7480964551131
2216.340229.4012117710454-13.0610117710455
2337.622728.52343482333859.09926517666153
2459.971922.101210439637137.8706895603629
2515.990158.0091055053814-42.0190055053814
2627.701342.3832906209164-14.6819906209164
2732.93232.50047978698930.431520213010728
285.3079633.4704051079181-28.1624451079181
2920.23533.142555027402-12.907555027402
300.406353.65089669311515-3.24454669311515
310.191283.87741627198021-3.68613627198021
320.497353.08030574281442-2.58295574281442
3319.623822.5060754730855-2.88227547308546
3420.237828.5287718725979-8.2909718725979
3523.995930.1348679049508-6.13896790495081
3629.847826.29123052627313.55656947372691
3741.71952.3718036321921-10.6528036321921
3841.902440.58370470750861.31869529249141
3915.526232.7595016926428-17.2333016926428
4034.279730.00370108605954.27599891394048
4115.108632.2635965073305-17.1549965073305
423.493923.6329202227192-0.1390002227192
432.061013.85027011171972-1.78926011171972
440.52663.17666100748788-2.65006100748788
4518.992322.5139096140075-3.52160961400746
4661.287227.875532112894933.4116678871051
474.8642330.9680463790199-26.1038163790199
4813.891927.5351722001166-13.6432722001166
4940.535851.5000027873141-10.9642027873141
502.1018440.951126205223-38.849286205223
5121.290729.8034022622014-8.51270226220139
5221.198129.5673565241649-8.36925652416489
531.1252429.0247489278161-27.8995089278161
549.67891.812216042094787.86668395790523
550.194481.99956003769839-1.80508003769839
5612.43371.137624454271511.2960755457285
5762.843420.723093286660242.1203067133398
5867.852131.442851454819336.4092485451807
5925.367328.1310533448526-2.76375334485263
6042.575126.74640450054415.828695499456
6140.551651.9118755693623-11.3602755693623
6275.55438.337470225282937.2165297747171
6343.483932.880171052638410.6037289473616
6431.786433.3431487629302-1.5567487629302
6523.347730.9963829440324-7.64868294403242
6616.7688.409008179199898.35899182080011
673.318327.68933385570705-4.37101385570706
6810.48198.296634689535372.18526531046463
6920.809531.0673373038581-10.2578373038581
7017.494539.641936937764-22.147436937764
717.7518230.3105129365236-22.5586929365236
7211.338830.3363722474454-18.9975722474454
7332.573551.4536805028339-18.8801805028339
7412.683142.877956372552-30.194856372552
759.9470832.373867200376-22.426787200376
7630.605730.37354644733260.232153552667405
773.2294527.2829106763806-24.0534606763806
787.674965.781535660569821.89342433943018
790.330633.32507584466934-2.99444584466934
8014.06234.528662671891419.53363732810859
8167.737326.022051034080241.7152489659198
8251.212834.785328806583416.4274711934166
8334.815826.51690691622388.29889308377623
8436.93127.83101008702989.0999899129702
8521.529849.8050987813878-28.2752987813878
8618.147939.6961723218092-21.5482723218092
8715.661430.286894953163-14.625494953163
8823.415330.9791560774312-7.56385607743116
8913.857625.0042328137445-11.1466328137445
905.657286.71237008917754-1.05509008917754
910.000373.63372276503921-3.63335276503921
929.984676.17502938951933.8096406104807
9324.136630.979225185435-6.84262518543497
9448.130435.467574883712712.6628251162873
9528.743826.14556980995792.59823019004206
9618.121127.3110635671465-9.18996356714648
9783.508244.593021665878538.9151783341215
9823.147337.2414877871879-14.0941877871878
9924.352928.8008110581956-4.44791105819557
1005.2431730.5690954894489-25.3259254894489
1016.6109723.6484572811632-17.0374872811632
1023.627416.25061396737524-2.62320396737524
1038.342752.820879253598685.52187074640132
1044.10086.43348984202686-2.33268984202686
10513.532829.873961895492-16.341161895492
10610.333136.1608153604558-25.8277153604558
10758.242424.510089893914433.7323101060856
10839.709625.306658479091414.4029415209086
10917.936148.5129237643725-30.5768237643725
11018.861733.2148585706562-14.3531585706562
1115.2876125.7336464127971-20.4460364127971
11215.90424.6547318763169-8.7507318763169
11330.812519.0587687244811.75373127552
1149.682554.048952659610385.63359734038962
1150.557011.70993185722664-1.15292185722664
1162.069464.21631253988469-2.14685253988469
1177.9366226.0914891236023-18.1548691236023
11849.146731.241321760352717.9053782396473
1199.4876127.3738600373319-17.8862500373319
12016.140224.4428267111665-8.30262671116645
12144.187141.99573586723032.19136413276973
12223.11729.4050396516613-6.28803965166129
1239.0229621.4651971177011-12.4422371177011
12415.75721.8639193124207-6.10691931242072
12532.559118.541136882623714.0179631173763
1263.215432.905351972767940.310078027232061
1270.18363-0.3677356829889330.551365682988933
1286.143132.04863844202074.0944915579793
12922.624722.34807994167320.276620058326774
1304.4559331.961455067673-27.505525067673
13118.265722.7747110564717-4.50901105647168
13235.158221.249891665153613.9083083348464
1338.5012340.5972720041881-32.0960420041881
13413.247425.9912045131481-12.7438045131481
13517.093117.1288817736477-0.0357817736477237
13619.972218.5460081311821.42619186881804
13722.275717.59709682437094.67860317562912
1383.185370.1411818434509553.04418815654904
1394.99307-3.068258498480028.06132849848002
14014.3119-0.077584739270420814.3894847392704
14114.807120.091557822551-5.28445782255097
14219.488326.4861633511459-6.99786335114585
14357.623820.404044793767837.2197552062323
14428.373622.17132119529146.20227880470863
14580.30636.307884969617843.9981150303822
14644.151526.204583816268917.9469161837311
14715.453819.771534381611-4.31773438161103
14844.495321.329570068826723.1657299311733
14914.213621.5277054782847-7.31410547828467
1502.901523.65120076743548-0.749680767435476
1511.263880.9889411350645330.274938864935467
1520.385354.54037102245706-4.15502102245706
15339.26322.103554453128317.1594455468717
15438.96229.1092788718849.85272112811604
15526.503628.4690496956662-1.9654496956662
15692.599625.771461852616966.8281381473831
15732.032146.00447125097-13.97237125097
1585.8466131.406413268557-25.559803268557
15945.784321.288872473223224.4954275267768
16025.363226.7885442814707-1.42534428147072
16112.870522.9898503918412-10.1193503918412
16212.21615.797180389367336.41891961063267
1631.402743.52756220081455-2.12482220081455
1642.828076.58633328116781-3.75826328116781
16520.275126.5364801642882-6.26138016428818
16618.036732.0764008808439-14.0397008808439
16747.418829.44404401762617.974755982374
16838.431634.85547469890743.57612530109265
16925.140944.3716344113661-19.2307344113661
17044.530428.327898206911816.2025017930882
17113.424924.9243634861402-11.4994634861402
17229.967826.49315341237073.47464658762926
1733.6892821.8817764664136-18.1924964664136
1749.364986.212878299716153.15210170028385
1752.391562.88787938878303-0.49631938878303
17610.43215.791707033194654.64039296680535
17719.860925.70629568622-5.84539568622005
17811.949130.3956897387148-18.4465897387148
17921.758631.080928263658-9.32232826365799
18064.492534.050717173292730.4417828267073
18185.354841.885216211359743.4695837886403
18224.629731.629524126855-6.99982412685502
1839.6792224.5270248534386-14.8478048534386
18411.986827.6294988547909-15.6426988547909
18522.956420.07741090603752.8789890939625
1863.152237.37822685596933-4.22599685596933
1872.550283.43806062416813-0.887780624168134
1889.410526.892368610358042.51815138964196
18929.393725.60720996667883.78649003332123
19025.84729.2337858349007-3.38678583490067
19130.725431.3933678381628-0.667967838162753
19264.950938.976270760100325.9746292398997
1934.1050148.1187475029617-44.0137375029617
19426.740529.6724641165053-2.93196411650531
19561.743321.793836486140939.9494635138591
19640.652726.47993719495114.172762805049
1978.4832821.8760038920752-13.3927238920752
19817.81277.926525168333829.88617483166618
1990.650154.80689925856616-4.15674925856616
2003.439158.55735985019225-5.11820985019225
20117.51627.196369665619-9.68036966561903
20243.789429.640966745973414.1484332540266
20312.309632.6515923287429-20.3419923287429
20456.132542.531944289957713.6005557100423
20519.163543.6944391572263-24.5309391572263
2066.7861730.3104480023925-23.5242780023925
20725.601526.4512310638888-0.849731063888775
2085.2878727.052125258066-21.764255258066
20914.471218.2831497353328-3.81194973533283
2106.68847.08052915754898-0.392129157548977
2113.323732.043351986682961.28037801331704
2125.710625.77916473209413-0.0685447320941277
21329.076724.00565547119285.07104452880721
21424.097729.4280497750269-5.3303497750269
21524.747628.027370616654-3.27977061665403
21626.905142.0512520821204-15.1461520821204
21786.39438.114434828913848.2795651710862
21822.588927.0361257093414-4.44722570934142
21930.2426.2177450943014.02225490569901
22046.993524.700981403059922.2925185969401
22118.689419.2658408705425-0.576440870542541
2220.280258.58112360104132-8.30087360104132
2230.929173.52583842922468-2.59666842922468
2246.627227.03461946000823-0.407399460008233
22552.052425.845618396924726.2067816030753
22622.044130.8387127318197-8.79461273181969
2278.4423329.6087214081738-21.1663914081738
22813.267441.8374039853524-28.5700039853524
22928.215744.400469767566-16.184769767566
23015.412425.6026095587341-10.1902095587341
23123.976725.4874212194822-1.51072121948216
23237.219325.738802297760811.4804977022392
23314.72117.4360553734501-2.7150553734501
2346.615015.789274534553260.825735465446739
2352.552331.580595598157780.971734401842222
2363.609235.38875715657189-1.77952715657189
23721.850126.9985534737005-5.14845347370052
23841.843527.161657702673314.6818422973267
23942.935825.247552388545317.6882476114547
24015.896237.8354109265216-21.9392109265216
24128.014241.931491908745-13.917291908745
24238.702523.84243031148114.860069688519
24331.345625.44384457153655.90175542846352
24431.265127.35024212742053.9148578725795
24521.813117.28911645418244.52398354581762
2467.299046.266062474231791.0329775257682
2477.378282.098961542169845.27931845783016
2485.693575.76299031473333-0.0694203147333292
2497.8396327.0842056442653-19.2445756442653
25074.580728.982722377404945.5979776225951
25126.628628.3760653051545-1.74746530515452
25228.858836.0943599506905-7.23555995069048
25328.279741.5446940870485-13.2649940870485
25437.581626.635801604509810.9457983954902
25538.585827.179157276483511.4066427235165
25621.666829.0757907932666-7.40899079326662
2574.9284718.7642006030399-13.8357306030399
2584.574626.81450497194372-2.23988497194372
2591.563363.01637968852961-1.45301968852961
2607.970825.896457256602072.07436274339793
26118.935925.205049856108-6.26914985610796
26223.540234.5514571971606-11.0112571971606
26310.931327.0468292430067-16.1155292430067
2648.8461733.6815947113764-24.8354247113764
26520.156737.8748969690789-17.7181969690789
26627.47425.38683825640522.08716174359483
26723.303625.6310319220106-2.3274319220106
26828.02624.97518694994343.05081305005663
2694.5005814.2014357381213-9.70085573812134
2701.473643.55715159637289-2.08351159637289
2712.98536-0.2295906632547123.21495066325471
27219.12953.1009052815234616.0285947184765
27324.018621.86700023099642.15159976900357
27432.449730.90134774181161.5483522581884
27546.552923.182980336223923.3699196637761
27640.687330.067483373654410.6198166263456
27722.480536.1399610478683-13.6594610478683
27815.673325.9569974945588-10.2836974945588
27954.996225.366257059344229.6299429406558
2808.0310526.3165464698003-18.2854964698003
28111.647513.5402133135804-1.8927133135804
2826.683383.997896503008192.68548349699181
2834.893160.9734546554686253.91970534453137
2840.927215.75895309348475-4.83174309348475
28510.048722.4077239547278-12.3590239547278
28629.253130.9450029494613-1.69190294946134
28723.926625.5032435621055-1.57664356210549
28833.737830.228540911523.50925908848004
28928.620433.4263594494079-4.80595944940785
29072.906923.864148812820349.0427511871797
29137.84629.45050064950218.39549935049791
2920.8276624.5750250251705-23.7473650251705
2936.2515413.4273166849062-7.17577668490617
2943.445994.23182206096865-0.78583206096865
2955.701361.243125883557934.45823411644207
29623.26255.1030389009923818.1594610990076
29738.333921.663518077852316.6703819221477
29829.779632.2980385774501-2.51843857745005
29934.148926.89936554608867.24953445391141
3004.7863332.5090960688037-27.7227660688037
30116.133833.8892112190724-17.7554112190724
30211.918629.8003045132418-17.8817045132418
30325.065928.899476547108-3.83357654710804
30421.00520.11209417007180.892905829928196
30528.233511.484218090725216.7492819092748
3063.663963.70408598713001-0.0401259871300073
3070.428481.30203345428544-0.873553454285443
3080.989316.47665251565655-5.48734251565655
30938.949122.123961834247116.8251381657529
31012.872830.6483756799608-17.7755756799609
31120.303525.7994012205804-5.49590122058043
31265.66827.167401218353138.5005987816469


Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing
tForecast95% Lower Bound95% Upper Bound
31331.6472221962694-0.46188482596203863.7563292185009
31428.1048406136581-4.0200427990060460.2297240263222
31529.3095198073866-2.8320860044651461.4511256192384
31621.1921931524915-10.967107585625553.3514938906084
31714.2977638450519-17.880230719801646.4757584099054
3184.2098897848654-27.987823727986436.4076032977172
3191.74261038546785-30.475873257037533.9610940279732
3206.46786501362006-25.772465832290838.7081958595309
32124.7337372377437-7.5295436011267556.9970180766141
32229.0051981292401-3.2821610235679261.2925572820482
32326.0605284301146-6.2520626964957658.373119556725
32432.40686600295240.067864104548100164.7458679013567