Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.0304170259767769 |
beta | 0.0307214113242084 |
gamma | 0.111940615200318 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 56.8225 | 53.1608301495727 | 3.66166985042734 |
14 | 42.5477 | 38.9389926538777 | 3.60870734612229 |
15 | 32.4106 | 29.7402234505396 | 2.67037654946039 |
16 | 32.1644 | 30.9659471089428 | 1.19845289105722 |
17 | 32.4135 | 31.6317774595833 | 0.781722540416734 |
18 | 4.86863 | 2.44665092938478 | 2.42197907061522 |
19 | 6.78436 | 2.74326351928938 | 4.04109648071062 |
20 | 3.38038 | 2.61770523081755 | 0.762674769182455 |
21 | 7.3815 | 24.1295964551131 | -16.7480964551131 |
22 | 16.3402 | 29.4012117710454 | -13.0610117710455 |
23 | 37.6227 | 28.5234348233385 | 9.09926517666153 |
24 | 59.9719 | 22.1012104396371 | 37.8706895603629 |
25 | 15.9901 | 58.0091055053814 | -42.0190055053814 |
26 | 27.7013 | 42.3832906209164 | -14.6819906209164 |
27 | 32.932 | 32.5004797869893 | 0.431520213010728 |
28 | 5.30796 | 33.4704051079181 | -28.1624451079181 |
29 | 20.235 | 33.142555027402 | -12.907555027402 |
30 | 0.40635 | 3.65089669311515 | -3.24454669311515 |
31 | 0.19128 | 3.87741627198021 | -3.68613627198021 |
32 | 0.49735 | 3.08030574281442 | -2.58295574281442 |
33 | 19.6238 | 22.5060754730855 | -2.88227547308546 |
34 | 20.2378 | 28.5287718725979 | -8.2909718725979 |
35 | 23.9959 | 30.1348679049508 | -6.13896790495081 |
36 | 29.8478 | 26.2912305262731 | 3.55656947372691 |
37 | 41.719 | 52.3718036321921 | -10.6528036321921 |
38 | 41.9024 | 40.5837047075086 | 1.31869529249141 |
39 | 15.5262 | 32.7595016926428 | -17.2333016926428 |
40 | 34.2797 | 30.0037010860595 | 4.27599891394048 |
41 | 15.1086 | 32.2635965073305 | -17.1549965073305 |
42 | 3.49392 | 3.6329202227192 | -0.1390002227192 |
43 | 2.06101 | 3.85027011171972 | -1.78926011171972 |
44 | 0.5266 | 3.17666100748788 | -2.65006100748788 |
45 | 18.9923 | 22.5139096140075 | -3.52160961400746 |
46 | 61.2872 | 27.8755321128949 | 33.4116678871051 |
47 | 4.86423 | 30.9680463790199 | -26.1038163790199 |
48 | 13.8919 | 27.5351722001166 | -13.6432722001166 |
49 | 40.5358 | 51.5000027873141 | -10.9642027873141 |
50 | 2.10184 | 40.951126205223 | -38.849286205223 |
51 | 21.2907 | 29.8034022622014 | -8.51270226220139 |
52 | 21.1981 | 29.5673565241649 | -8.36925652416489 |
53 | 1.12524 | 29.0247489278161 | -27.8995089278161 |
54 | 9.6789 | 1.81221604209478 | 7.86668395790523 |
55 | 0.19448 | 1.99956003769839 | -1.80508003769839 |
56 | 12.4337 | 1.1376244542715 | 11.2960755457285 |
57 | 62.8434 | 20.7230932866602 | 42.1203067133398 |
58 | 67.8521 | 31.4428514548193 | 36.4092485451807 |
59 | 25.3673 | 28.1310533448526 | -2.76375334485263 |
60 | 42.5751 | 26.746404500544 | 15.828695499456 |
61 | 40.5516 | 51.9118755693623 | -11.3602755693623 |
62 | 75.554 | 38.3374702252829 | 37.2165297747171 |
63 | 43.4839 | 32.8801710526384 | 10.6037289473616 |
64 | 31.7864 | 33.3431487629302 | -1.5567487629302 |
65 | 23.3477 | 30.9963829440324 | -7.64868294403242 |
66 | 16.768 | 8.40900817919989 | 8.35899182080011 |
67 | 3.31832 | 7.68933385570705 | -4.37101385570706 |
68 | 10.4819 | 8.29663468953537 | 2.18526531046463 |
69 | 20.8095 | 31.0673373038581 | -10.2578373038581 |
70 | 17.4945 | 39.641936937764 | -22.147436937764 |
71 | 7.75182 | 30.3105129365236 | -22.5586929365236 |
72 | 11.3388 | 30.3363722474454 | -18.9975722474454 |
73 | 32.5735 | 51.4536805028339 | -18.8801805028339 |
74 | 12.6831 | 42.877956372552 | -30.194856372552 |
75 | 9.94708 | 32.373867200376 | -22.426787200376 |
76 | 30.6057 | 30.3735464473326 | 0.232153552667405 |
77 | 3.22945 | 27.2829106763806 | -24.0534606763806 |
78 | 7.67496 | 5.78153566056982 | 1.89342433943018 |
79 | 0.33063 | 3.32507584466934 | -2.99444584466934 |
80 | 14.0623 | 4.52866267189141 | 9.53363732810859 |
81 | 67.7373 | 26.0220510340802 | 41.7152489659198 |
82 | 51.2128 | 34.7853288065834 | 16.4274711934166 |
83 | 34.8158 | 26.5169069162238 | 8.29889308377623 |
84 | 36.931 | 27.8310100870298 | 9.0999899129702 |
85 | 21.5298 | 49.8050987813878 | -28.2752987813878 |
86 | 18.1479 | 39.6961723218092 | -21.5482723218092 |
87 | 15.6614 | 30.286894953163 | -14.625494953163 |
88 | 23.4153 | 30.9791560774312 | -7.56385607743116 |
89 | 13.8576 | 25.0042328137445 | -11.1466328137445 |
90 | 5.65728 | 6.71237008917754 | -1.05509008917754 |
91 | 0.00037 | 3.63372276503921 | -3.63335276503921 |
92 | 9.98467 | 6.1750293895193 | 3.8096406104807 |
93 | 24.1366 | 30.979225185435 | -6.84262518543497 |
94 | 48.1304 | 35.4675748837127 | 12.6628251162873 |
95 | 28.7438 | 26.1455698099579 | 2.59823019004206 |
96 | 18.1211 | 27.3110635671465 | -9.18996356714648 |
97 | 83.5082 | 44.5930216658785 | 38.9151783341215 |
98 | 23.1473 | 37.2414877871879 | -14.0941877871878 |
99 | 24.3529 | 28.8008110581956 | -4.44791105819557 |
100 | 5.24317 | 30.5690954894489 | -25.3259254894489 |
101 | 6.61097 | 23.6484572811632 | -17.0374872811632 |
102 | 3.62741 | 6.25061396737524 | -2.62320396737524 |
103 | 8.34275 | 2.82087925359868 | 5.52187074640132 |
104 | 4.1008 | 6.43348984202686 | -2.33268984202686 |
105 | 13.5328 | 29.873961895492 | -16.341161895492 |
106 | 10.3331 | 36.1608153604558 | -25.8277153604558 |
107 | 58.2424 | 24.5100898939144 | 33.7323101060856 |
108 | 39.7096 | 25.3066584790914 | 14.4029415209086 |
109 | 17.9361 | 48.5129237643725 | -30.5768237643725 |
110 | 18.8617 | 33.2148585706562 | -14.3531585706562 |
111 | 5.28761 | 25.7336464127971 | -20.4460364127971 |
112 | 15.904 | 24.6547318763169 | -8.7507318763169 |
113 | 30.8125 | 19.05876872448 | 11.75373127552 |
114 | 9.68255 | 4.04895265961038 | 5.63359734038962 |
115 | 0.55701 | 1.70993185722664 | -1.15292185722664 |
116 | 2.06946 | 4.21631253988469 | -2.14685253988469 |
117 | 7.93662 | 26.0914891236023 | -18.1548691236023 |
118 | 49.1467 | 31.2413217603527 | 17.9053782396473 |
119 | 9.48761 | 27.3738600373319 | -17.8862500373319 |
120 | 16.1402 | 24.4428267111665 | -8.30262671116645 |
121 | 44.1871 | 41.9957358672303 | 2.19136413276973 |
122 | 23.117 | 29.4050396516613 | -6.28803965166129 |
123 | 9.02296 | 21.4651971177011 | -12.4422371177011 |
124 | 15.757 | 21.8639193124207 | -6.10691931242072 |
125 | 32.5591 | 18.5411368826237 | 14.0179631173763 |
126 | 3.21543 | 2.90535197276794 | 0.310078027232061 |
127 | 0.18363 | -0.367735682988933 | 0.551365682988933 |
128 | 6.14313 | 2.0486384420207 | 4.0944915579793 |
129 | 22.6247 | 22.3480799416732 | 0.276620058326774 |
130 | 4.45593 | 31.961455067673 | -27.505525067673 |
131 | 18.2657 | 22.7747110564717 | -4.50901105647168 |
132 | 35.1582 | 21.2498916651536 | 13.9083083348464 |
133 | 8.50123 | 40.5972720041881 | -32.0960420041881 |
134 | 13.2474 | 25.9912045131481 | -12.7438045131481 |
135 | 17.0931 | 17.1288817736477 | -0.0357817736477237 |
136 | 19.9722 | 18.546008131182 | 1.42619186881804 |
137 | 22.2757 | 17.5970968243709 | 4.67860317562912 |
138 | 3.18537 | 0.141181843450955 | 3.04418815654904 |
139 | 4.99307 | -3.06825849848002 | 8.06132849848002 |
140 | 14.3119 | -0.0775847392704208 | 14.3894847392704 |
141 | 14.8071 | 20.091557822551 | -5.28445782255097 |
142 | 19.4883 | 26.4861633511459 | -6.99786335114585 |
143 | 57.6238 | 20.4040447937678 | 37.2197552062323 |
144 | 28.3736 | 22.1713211952914 | 6.20227880470863 |
145 | 80.306 | 36.3078849696178 | 43.9981150303822 |
146 | 44.1515 | 26.2045838162689 | 17.9469161837311 |
147 | 15.4538 | 19.771534381611 | -4.31773438161103 |
148 | 44.4953 | 21.3295700688267 | 23.1657299311733 |
149 | 14.2136 | 21.5277054782847 | -7.31410547828467 |
150 | 2.90152 | 3.65120076743548 | -0.749680767435476 |
151 | 1.26388 | 0.988941135064533 | 0.274938864935467 |
152 | 0.38535 | 4.54037102245706 | -4.15502102245706 |
153 | 39.263 | 22.1035544531283 | 17.1594455468717 |
154 | 38.962 | 29.109278871884 | 9.85272112811604 |
155 | 26.5036 | 28.4690496956662 | -1.9654496956662 |
156 | 92.5996 | 25.7714618526169 | 66.8281381473831 |
157 | 32.0321 | 46.00447125097 | -13.97237125097 |
158 | 5.84661 | 31.406413268557 | -25.559803268557 |
159 | 45.7843 | 21.2888724732232 | 24.4954275267768 |
160 | 25.3632 | 26.7885442814707 | -1.42534428147072 |
161 | 12.8705 | 22.9898503918412 | -10.1193503918412 |
162 | 12.2161 | 5.79718038936733 | 6.41891961063267 |
163 | 1.40274 | 3.52756220081455 | -2.12482220081455 |
164 | 2.82807 | 6.58633328116781 | -3.75826328116781 |
165 | 20.2751 | 26.5364801642882 | -6.26138016428818 |
166 | 18.0367 | 32.0764008808439 | -14.0397008808439 |
167 | 47.4188 | 29.444044017626 | 17.974755982374 |
168 | 38.4316 | 34.8554746989074 | 3.57612530109265 |
169 | 25.1409 | 44.3716344113661 | -19.2307344113661 |
170 | 44.5304 | 28.3278982069118 | 16.2025017930882 |
171 | 13.4249 | 24.9243634861402 | -11.4994634861402 |
172 | 29.9678 | 26.4931534123707 | 3.47464658762926 |
173 | 3.68928 | 21.8817764664136 | -18.1924964664136 |
174 | 9.36498 | 6.21287829971615 | 3.15210170028385 |
175 | 2.39156 | 2.88787938878303 | -0.49631938878303 |
176 | 10.4321 | 5.79170703319465 | 4.64039296680535 |
177 | 19.8609 | 25.70629568622 | -5.84539568622005 |
178 | 11.9491 | 30.3956897387148 | -18.4465897387148 |
179 | 21.7586 | 31.080928263658 | -9.32232826365799 |
180 | 64.4925 | 34.0507171732927 | 30.4417828267073 |
181 | 85.3548 | 41.8852162113597 | 43.4695837886403 |
182 | 24.6297 | 31.629524126855 | -6.99982412685502 |
183 | 9.67922 | 24.5270248534386 | -14.8478048534386 |
184 | 11.9868 | 27.6294988547909 | -15.6426988547909 |
185 | 22.9564 | 20.0774109060375 | 2.8789890939625 |
186 | 3.15223 | 7.37822685596933 | -4.22599685596933 |
187 | 2.55028 | 3.43806062416813 | -0.887780624168134 |
188 | 9.41052 | 6.89236861035804 | 2.51815138964196 |
189 | 29.3937 | 25.6072099666788 | 3.78649003332123 |
190 | 25.847 | 29.2337858349007 | -3.38678583490067 |
191 | 30.7254 | 31.3933678381628 | -0.667967838162753 |
192 | 64.9509 | 38.9762707601003 | 25.9746292398997 |
193 | 4.10501 | 48.1187475029617 | -44.0137375029617 |
194 | 26.7405 | 29.6724641165053 | -2.93196411650531 |
195 | 61.7433 | 21.7938364861409 | 39.9494635138591 |
196 | 40.6527 | 26.479937194951 | 14.172762805049 |
197 | 8.48328 | 21.8760038920752 | -13.3927238920752 |
198 | 17.8127 | 7.92652516833382 | 9.88617483166618 |
199 | 0.65015 | 4.80689925856616 | -4.15674925856616 |
200 | 3.43915 | 8.55735985019225 | -5.11820985019225 |
201 | 17.516 | 27.196369665619 | -9.68036966561903 |
202 | 43.7894 | 29.6409667459734 | 14.1484332540266 |
203 | 12.3096 | 32.6515923287429 | -20.3419923287429 |
204 | 56.1325 | 42.5319442899577 | 13.6005557100423 |
205 | 19.1635 | 43.6944391572263 | -24.5309391572263 |
206 | 6.78617 | 30.3104480023925 | -23.5242780023925 |
207 | 25.6015 | 26.4512310638888 | -0.849731063888775 |
208 | 5.28787 | 27.052125258066 | -21.764255258066 |
209 | 14.4712 | 18.2831497353328 | -3.81194973533283 |
210 | 6.6884 | 7.08052915754898 | -0.392129157548977 |
211 | 3.32373 | 2.04335198668296 | 1.28037801331704 |
212 | 5.71062 | 5.77916473209413 | -0.0685447320941277 |
213 | 29.0767 | 24.0056554711928 | 5.07104452880721 |
214 | 24.0977 | 29.4280497750269 | -5.3303497750269 |
215 | 24.7476 | 28.027370616654 | -3.27977061665403 |
216 | 26.9051 | 42.0512520821204 | -15.1461520821204 |
217 | 86.394 | 38.1144348289138 | 48.2795651710862 |
218 | 22.5889 | 27.0361257093414 | -4.44722570934142 |
219 | 30.24 | 26.217745094301 | 4.02225490569901 |
220 | 46.9935 | 24.7009814030599 | 22.2925185969401 |
221 | 18.6894 | 19.2658408705425 | -0.576440870542541 |
222 | 0.28025 | 8.58112360104132 | -8.30087360104132 |
223 | 0.92917 | 3.52583842922468 | -2.59666842922468 |
224 | 6.62722 | 7.03461946000823 | -0.407399460008233 |
225 | 52.0524 | 25.8456183969247 | 26.2067816030753 |
226 | 22.0441 | 30.8387127318197 | -8.79461273181969 |
227 | 8.44233 | 29.6087214081738 | -21.1663914081738 |
228 | 13.2674 | 41.8374039853524 | -28.5700039853524 |
229 | 28.2157 | 44.400469767566 | -16.184769767566 |
230 | 15.4124 | 25.6026095587341 | -10.1902095587341 |
231 | 23.9767 | 25.4874212194822 | -1.51072121948216 |
232 | 37.2193 | 25.7388022977608 | 11.4804977022392 |
233 | 14.721 | 17.4360553734501 | -2.7150553734501 |
234 | 6.61501 | 5.78927453455326 | 0.825735465446739 |
235 | 2.55233 | 1.58059559815778 | 0.971734401842222 |
236 | 3.60923 | 5.38875715657189 | -1.77952715657189 |
237 | 21.8501 | 26.9985534737005 | -5.14845347370052 |
238 | 41.8435 | 27.1616577026733 | 14.6818422973267 |
239 | 42.9358 | 25.2475523885453 | 17.6882476114547 |
240 | 15.8962 | 37.8354109265216 | -21.9392109265216 |
241 | 28.0142 | 41.931491908745 | -13.917291908745 |
242 | 38.7025 | 23.842430311481 | 14.860069688519 |
243 | 31.3456 | 25.4438445715365 | 5.90175542846352 |
244 | 31.2651 | 27.3502421274205 | 3.9148578725795 |
245 | 21.8131 | 17.2891164541824 | 4.52398354581762 |
246 | 7.29904 | 6.26606247423179 | 1.0329775257682 |
247 | 7.37828 | 2.09896154216984 | 5.27931845783016 |
248 | 5.69357 | 5.76299031473333 | -0.0694203147333292 |
249 | 7.83963 | 27.0842056442653 | -19.2445756442653 |
250 | 74.5807 | 28.9827223774049 | 45.5979776225951 |
251 | 26.6286 | 28.3760653051545 | -1.74746530515452 |
252 | 28.8588 | 36.0943599506905 | -7.23555995069048 |
253 | 28.2797 | 41.5446940870485 | -13.2649940870485 |
254 | 37.5816 | 26.6358016045098 | 10.9457983954902 |
255 | 38.5858 | 27.1791572764835 | 11.4066427235165 |
256 | 21.6668 | 29.0757907932666 | -7.40899079326662 |
257 | 4.92847 | 18.7642006030399 | -13.8357306030399 |
258 | 4.57462 | 6.81450497194372 | -2.23988497194372 |
259 | 1.56336 | 3.01637968852961 | -1.45301968852961 |
260 | 7.97082 | 5.89645725660207 | 2.07436274339793 |
261 | 18.9359 | 25.205049856108 | -6.26914985610796 |
262 | 23.5402 | 34.5514571971606 | -11.0112571971606 |
263 | 10.9313 | 27.0468292430067 | -16.1155292430067 |
264 | 8.84617 | 33.6815947113764 | -24.8354247113764 |
265 | 20.1567 | 37.8748969690789 | -17.7181969690789 |
266 | 27.474 | 25.3868382564052 | 2.08716174359483 |
267 | 23.3036 | 25.6310319220106 | -2.3274319220106 |
268 | 28.026 | 24.9751869499434 | 3.05081305005663 |
269 | 4.50058 | 14.2014357381213 | -9.70085573812134 |
270 | 1.47364 | 3.55715159637289 | -2.08351159637289 |
271 | 2.98536 | -0.229590663254712 | 3.21495066325471 |
272 | 19.1295 | 3.10090528152346 | 16.0285947184765 |
273 | 24.0186 | 21.8670002309964 | 2.15159976900357 |
274 | 32.4497 | 30.9013477418116 | 1.5483522581884 |
275 | 46.5529 | 23.1829803362239 | 23.3699196637761 |
276 | 40.6873 | 30.0674833736544 | 10.6198166263456 |
277 | 22.4805 | 36.1399610478683 | -13.6594610478683 |
278 | 15.6733 | 25.9569974945588 | -10.2836974945588 |
279 | 54.9962 | 25.3662570593442 | 29.6299429406558 |
280 | 8.03105 | 26.3165464698003 | -18.2854964698003 |
281 | 11.6475 | 13.5402133135804 | -1.8927133135804 |
282 | 6.68338 | 3.99789650300819 | 2.68548349699181 |
283 | 4.89316 | 0.973454655468625 | 3.91970534453137 |
284 | 0.92721 | 5.75895309348475 | -4.83174309348475 |
285 | 10.0487 | 22.4077239547278 | -12.3590239547278 |
286 | 29.2531 | 30.9450029494613 | -1.69190294946134 |
287 | 23.9266 | 25.5032435621055 | -1.57664356210549 |
288 | 33.7378 | 30.22854091152 | 3.50925908848004 |
289 | 28.6204 | 33.4263594494079 | -4.80595944940785 |
290 | 72.9069 | 23.8641488128203 | 49.0427511871797 |
291 | 37.846 | 29.4505006495021 | 8.39549935049791 |
292 | 0.82766 | 24.5750250251705 | -23.7473650251705 |
293 | 6.25154 | 13.4273166849062 | -7.17577668490617 |
294 | 3.44599 | 4.23182206096865 | -0.78583206096865 |
295 | 5.70136 | 1.24312588355793 | 4.45823411644207 |
296 | 23.2625 | 5.10303890099238 | 18.1594610990076 |
297 | 38.3339 | 21.6635180778523 | 16.6703819221477 |
298 | 29.7796 | 32.2980385774501 | -2.51843857745005 |
299 | 34.1489 | 26.8993655460886 | 7.24953445391141 |
300 | 4.78633 | 32.5090960688037 | -27.7227660688037 |
301 | 16.1338 | 33.8892112190724 | -17.7554112190724 |
302 | 11.9186 | 29.8003045132418 | -17.8817045132418 |
303 | 25.0659 | 28.899476547108 | -3.83357654710804 |
304 | 21.005 | 20.1120941700718 | 0.892905829928196 |
305 | 28.2335 | 11.4842180907252 | 16.7492819092748 |
306 | 3.66396 | 3.70408598713001 | -0.0401259871300073 |
307 | 0.42848 | 1.30203345428544 | -0.873553454285443 |
308 | 0.98931 | 6.47665251565655 | -5.48734251565655 |
309 | 38.9491 | 22.1239618342471 | 16.8251381657529 |
310 | 12.8728 | 30.6483756799608 | -17.7755756799609 |
311 | 20.3035 | 25.7994012205804 | -5.49590122058043 |
312 | 65.668 | 27.1674012183531 | 38.5005987816469 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
313 | 31.6472221962694 | -0.461884825962038 | 63.7563292185009 |
314 | 28.1048406136581 | -4.02004279900604 | 60.2297240263222 |
315 | 29.3095198073866 | -2.83208600446514 | 61.4511256192384 |
316 | 21.1921931524915 | -10.9671075856255 | 53.3514938906084 |
317 | 14.2977638450519 | -17.8802307198016 | 46.4757584099054 |
318 | 4.2098897848654 | -27.9878237279864 | 36.4076032977172 |
319 | 1.74261038546785 | -30.4758732570375 | 33.9610940279732 |
320 | 6.46786501362006 | -25.7724658322908 | 38.7081958595309 |
321 | 24.7337372377437 | -7.52954360112675 | 56.9970180766141 |
322 | 29.0051981292401 | -3.28216102356792 | 61.2925572820482 |
323 | 26.0605284301146 | -6.25206269649576 | 58.373119556725 |
324 | 32.4068660029524 | 0.0678641045481001 | 64.7458679013567 |