| Structural Time Series Model -- Interpolation | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 1.72923686058208 | 1.72923686058208 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 0.122433126801145 | 1.42066832527123 | -0.0674902134508326 | -0.0703337793262853 | -1.11322464542268 |
| 3 | 0.523768788982079 | 1.17849685106303 | -0.0969487846547913 | -0.0970096079048034 | -0.517251721347985 |
| 4 | -0.50175942601324 | 0.716179796478104 | -0.147297143239133 | -0.150130684114363 | -0.998733050740824 |
| 5 | -1.86386120887019 | -0.00487587422129143 | -0.214272051559109 | -0.21833017378633 | -1.53519956169114 |
| 6 | 0.0717422351702872 | -0.0935776671046023 | -0.201545907576142 | -0.197855361991636 | 0.33864193861942 |
| 7 | -0.380578531491989 | -0.266465820959501 | -0.198977887822426 | -0.199227202097621 | 0.0789640747935046 |
| 8 | -0.29851611788274 | -0.377419017783281 | -0.191903532563968 | -0.191110259867801 | 0.249156230522857 |
| 9 | 1.94316215667028 | 0.0664026100512477 | -0.145550539363683 | -0.139115932637732 | 1.85062442639201 |
| 10 | -1.24779901378139 | -0.313593190958833 | -0.161208038649045 | -0.166800437232212 | -0.701218437603303 |
| 11 | 1.35257277275093 | -0.0275348271453015 | -0.133626544992129 | -0.127413351309643 | 1.3718236698777 |
| 12 | 2.84406850014719 | 0.532269798704619 | -0.0938697271638612 | -0.0880693664650738 | 2.17597679196222 |
| 13 | 1.12274878943606 | 0.403528059375137 | -0.0901130250962406 | 0.986877143662351 | -0.240841169099235 |
| 14 | -2.32540657982629 | -0.319013033810243 | -0.124872672716689 | -0.136327005108213 | -1.73006870889212 |
| 15 | -2.89902363942181 | -0.992280231118665 | -0.152630362214299 | -0.156769511484653 | -1.60307123401005 |
| 16 | 0.246874012745119 | -0.799614170890165 | -0.136507496080386 | -0.122921669031032 | 1.06310395029717 |
| 17 | -0.731094375584061 | -0.86024628993833 | -0.13321729986723 | -0.13966482244634 | 0.243019838474193 |
| 18 | 1.97769407549524 | -0.338232808831384 | -0.106663912877936 | -0.087961552020559 | 2.16407173630238 |
| 19 | -0.089308186457892 | -0.347644629766973 | -0.102959350880298 | -0.108425420241986 | 0.329099734651183 |
| 20 | -1.64931358279907 | -0.672589960749849 | -0.110949263230237 | -0.120854778877491 | -0.766008346822422 |
| 21 | 1.78988776616251 | -0.247206942791754 | -0.0926237963102215 | -0.0682648695269386 | 1.88041508948696 |
| 22 | -0.655026882699021 | -0.381041117981377 | -0.0939660339434592 | -0.109797373011461 | -0.146397888406776 |
| 23 | -0.95518008982139 | -0.551266352849277 | -0.0963423278747375 | -0.0962961994931586 | -0.273900825337492 |
| 24 | -0.501427837065876 | -0.601786173407589 | -0.0949751530622079 | -0.086511684514782 | 0.166174392788391 |
| 25 | -1.47468882156665 | -0.949325902553826 | -0.0854498129813345 | 0.931359463758483 | -1.29215441992588 |
| 26 | 2.4255103110643 | -0.289762578154682 | -0.0610208819453241 | -0.0365843722118501 | 2.47570318876581 |
| 27 | -0.388732570521789 | -0.34181475584472 | -0.0607437169333842 | -0.081125965515938 | 0.0306744030423367 |
| 28 | -1.41970373897772 | -0.596673872487376 | -0.0663629812349783 | -0.0614064364454494 | -0.680793251494686 |
| 29 | -0.435743764210552 | -0.602820584863073 | -0.0647204734083732 | -0.0744552664449598 | 0.215374912400946 |
| 30 | 0.588337253253952 | -0.414153274173736 | -0.0581717711482467 | -0.0317503965475361 | 0.920486293429886 |
| 31 | -1.73087780677345 | -0.701673004525845 | -0.0638161523721626 | -0.0799106225553953 | -0.84360832817803 |
| 32 | 0.416192838768035 | -0.525708804584087 | -0.0581715621738578 | -0.0618924512566471 | 0.890954867736974 |
| 33 | -0.135602934239543 | -0.492017260106759 | -0.0560948355858048 | -0.0317504825771486 | 0.34418703297678 |
| 34 | 1.5607508968729 | -0.138199086130052 | -0.047164625421677 | -0.0465719058803769 | 1.54648276331611 |
| 35 | -0.619488852927662 | -0.256156263721066 | -0.0486553501236381 | -0.05991346327413 | -0.268634414673304 |
| 36 | 0.130061173484127 | -0.217208540023051 | -0.0468809470525117 | -0.0306115817387484 | 0.334297407235192 |
| 37 | -0.485714783249833 | -0.371395812250127 | -0.0444441858850981 | 0.463512829617528 | -0.510447427974759 |
| 38 | 1.19042117073251 | -0.0963726493171698 | -0.0369807487907751 | 0.00427466573653541 | 1.14405465298991 |
| 39 | 0.504940688912012 | 0.00202884285619165 | -0.033952534027224 | -0.0504245070185121 | 0.492854487138981 |
| 40 | -0.266725732456376 | -0.0703550140234057 | -0.0347629338422259 | -0.036420141782497 | -0.142195473277595 |
| 41 | 1.8987616014054 | 0.282514005090526 | -0.0270138510979637 | -0.0203206736171956 | 1.45272473858135 |
| 42 | 0.9835731579105 | 0.39265134294621 | -0.0244006444053469 | 0.00524002884175308 | 0.519273146775269 |
| 43 | 0.221023228988728 | 0.350065894598688 | -0.0247324773224876 | -0.0506717769711603 | -0.0694185925934969 |
| 44 | -0.176860990484583 | 0.23815407456363 | -0.0262625799411255 | -0.0364829501533889 | -0.335033543812621 |
| 45 | -0.162198287814433 | 0.144817873920369 | -0.0273991361054354 | -0.0139886604686768 | -0.259190047139376 |
| 46 | 0.78911590880292 | 0.24463812660047 | -0.0253110286818171 | -0.0141551074550225 | 0.493864089395401 |
| 47 | 1.41209201053576 | 0.444510820117414 | -0.0217210809886013 | -0.0254776477136344 | 0.877531361637408 |
| 48 | 0.518161844628975 | 0.442073349696332 | -0.0214262444748485 | -0.0093747186533513 | 0.0754708160802484 |
| 49 | 2.36462043434148 | 0.689702723170563 | -0.0257260640423503 | 0.272777000662213 | 1.23683528366464 |
| 50 | -1.24446105804486 | 0.302042931004535 | -0.0322652460677288 | -0.0294172203494087 | -1.34840513297745 |
| 51 | 1.09138861156198 | 0.43105701613893 | -0.029433282726447 | -0.0231414989917509 | 0.607066241098618 |
| 52 | 0.422175612267996 | 0.414289198147141 | -0.0292228254438863 | -0.0465050304736314 | 0.0482456587314793 |
| 53 | -0.997989397904933 | 0.135110632826765 | -0.0331737993407916 | -0.0482704533962383 | -0.961218039438096 |
| 54 | 0.754650745534752 | 0.220564898382364 | -0.0313806151804487 | 0.0148683170380374 | 0.459661353530381 |
| 55 | -1.44375392644115 | -0.0975897314200813 | -0.0355458133257807 | -0.0824291968363004 | -1.11800948642207 |
| 56 | 0.568632265545353 | 0.000386038144290834 | -0.0336745669850763 | -0.023415668990292 | 0.52314209218672 |
| 57 | 1.35413305240232 | 0.222490524830171 | -0.0302029759896085 | -0.00694167898780067 | 1.00626205185869 |
| 58 | -1.34288885715882 | -0.078039515795553 | -0.0337677208700913 | -0.0569482993817878 | -1.06711461667415 |
| 59 | -0.0968579661829751 | -0.103800723399257 | -0.033664888033202 | -0.0289469353396549 | 0.0316962578949502 |
| 60 | 0.242767533935212 | -0.0640881701874135 | -0.0327675168148226 | -0.0235181472063926 | 0.291585226393718 |
| 61 | 0.255744783559028 | -0.0977242550530477 | -0.0327569850939514 | 0.357906997394836 | -0.00391314724293109 |
| 62 | -0.243232899636027 | -0.144747196073928 | -0.0329661102225352 | -0.0370907333022272 | -0.0544745403416102 |
| 63 | 0.461607264600104 | -0.0550510031133952 | -0.0311912207577905 | -0.014775200286298 | 0.471441440470494 |
| 64 | 0.0650797112167817 | -0.0506371960518564 | -0.0307023357714469 | -0.0401586793787701 | 0.138136212435546 |
| 65 | 2.25999343044582 | 0.352893745217789 | -0.0250180948572972 | -0.00992058239860463 | 1.69743252329413 |
| 66 | 1.80462197944889 | 0.591548008374376 | -0.0217102250972578 | 0.0412143529234548 | 1.03693429898951 |
| 67 | 2.32548979115297 | 0.900451828512872 | -0.0177164150867484 | -0.0522928129550232 | 1.30653048709734 |
| 68 | 0.682758803307819 | 0.852252700999863 | -0.018072464955393 | -0.0326833692216933 | -0.120940279276825 |
| 69 | -0.335554613197298 | 0.622309921747584 | -0.0204740677190233 | -0.00352176778862701 | -0.843333565858318 |
| 70 | -0.997929583796738 | 0.32322722696244 | -0.0235485297897433 | -0.0624383323161159 | -1.11197177273138 |
| 71 | 0.97507128242145 | 0.421689742585015 | -0.0222350531709311 | 0.000749096079601804 | 0.488077985028606 |
| 72 | -1.17268516900173 | 0.124304183330854 | -0.0250269061867095 | -0.0454558744654631 | -1.10461509897169 |
| 73 | -0.000337278483281606 | 0.0370535286774044 | -0.0244293167766844 | 0.276283832035355 | -0.276603854141521 |
| 74 | -1.71460596672184 | -0.296344998543734 | -0.0282219331181328 | -0.0648416190214689 | -1.19989434870135 |
| 75 | -1.34872342854985 | -0.510547037686219 | -0.0305125376514991 | -0.0204408841684793 | -0.725079989389367 |
| 76 | -1.6521456119588 | -0.732232473987128 | -0.0327521629418877 | -0.0721369954745074 | -0.751094273557141 |
| 77 | -1.48335049731373 | -0.890006689218339 | -0.0341506651702719 | -0.0350601411876899 | -0.494277409678202 |
| 78 | 0.925016701443022 | -0.597216305455206 | -0.0306404439746951 | 0.0541545836255033 | 1.29905402921566 |
| 79 | -0.226525557050897 | -0.542553409438106 | -0.0297572413351297 | -0.0687333231956927 | 0.340312077146539 |
| 80 | 0.774905929042345 | -0.326359320645214 | -0.0272913541855263 | -0.0121503310189222 | 0.984435491021306 |
| 81 | -0.339789522342372 | -0.34967877548123 | -0.0272526529381392 | -0.00814529012003356 | 0.0159406809747742 |
| 82 | 0.89311055438168 | -0.139775694027938 | -0.0249998927481379 | -0.0465964166625094 | 0.953917918055976 |
| 83 | -0.864578780222597 | -0.288277584355624 | -0.0261453070818456 | -0.0129495106843119 | -0.497714538294172 |
| 84 | -1.95217915873499 | -0.595930603969983 | -0.0285756644104421 | -0.0667581992898301 | -1.13847395040919 |
| 85 | -0.11317194501752 | -0.597951355951487 | -0.0287831386867884 | 0.352242475119334 | 0.116912909055032 |
| 86 | 1.02470860347022 | -0.318877775766069 | -0.0255472201708525 | -0.0221015643008464 | 1.21039932677834 |
| 87 | -1.25650654087286 | -0.504823142966663 | -0.0272681409354501 | -0.0390088391122991 | -0.631881193950983 |
| 88 | -0.602130638597027 | -0.535112680853938 | -0.0272990461136172 | -0.0534966632248898 | -0.0119802725243005 |
| 89 | -0.83233134657693 | -0.602434059438572 | -0.027690393620061 | -0.0497253922280459 | -0.159545268395938 |
| 90 | -0.446577198612737 | -0.607215608514993 | -0.0274751489667904 | 0.0570168309470186 | 0.0917160627086576 |
| 91 | -4.01053303468812 | -1.21702385450499 | -0.0327572460725854 | -0.149384035275267 | -2.33945394078059 |
| 92 | 0.288513333839785 | -0.980436078206719 | -0.0303888970217904 | 0.0421537509933538 | 1.08510640550615 |
| 93 | -1.00798474916531 | -1.00395148336994 | -0.0303300962116012 | -0.0354202482775528 | 0.0277549854997712 |
| 94 | -0.572816189634855 | -0.945220168131082 | -0.0295865709486082 | -0.0351442953306133 | 0.360313326293192 |
| 95 | -0.297410570159231 | -0.854992321109193 | -0.0286097624784342 | 0.00829191176949936 | 0.485533617421124 |
| 96 | 1.21578539483534 | -0.503424472564066 | -0.0257651512334394 | -0.0311195389824833 | 1.54607031881396 |
| 97 | -0.727486991378146 | -0.607991922168099 | -0.025255474703226 | 0.270763416664877 | -0.344416652479155 |
| 98 | -0.843943364912431 | -0.669328865394966 | -0.0255856950823407 | -0.0130383897271675 | -0.143201004319679 |
| 99 | -1.20889338911855 | -0.780334569126671 | -0.0263979995215923 | -0.0460683337466225 | -0.339183668074968 |
| 100 | -0.649656515850742 | -0.770737562111514 | -0.0260708814844208 | -0.0410893795005195 | 0.143727285201544 |
| 101 | 3.19984732249364 | -0.0815384112047425 | -0.019851021626105 | 0.0421152926794985 | 2.86943865596466 |
| 102 | 0.572738529480399 | 0.00675065841139394 | -0.0189466779225747 | 0.0742114774210378 | 0.435453914676917 |
| 103 | -0.0199646221520179 | 0.0142351116153043 | -0.0187331119321938 | -0.154800868987891 | 0.106754092983454 |
| 104 | 0.462316869083462 | 0.0682588279021193 | -0.0181627456919027 | 0.061175001087429 | 0.294584440077821 |
| 105 | -1.28699501625665 | -0.178181484392155 | -0.0199052361694686 | -0.0620479348886354 | -0.926132781635256 |
| 106 | -1.80757939159691 | -0.475654822782469 | -0.021974451203362 | -0.0567873356084995 | -1.12798241463065 |
| 107 | -2.15431670426712 | -0.788095224574026 | -0.0240882955619989 | -0.0296184655182242 | -1.18214611718573 |
| 108 | 0.707840316820782 | -0.546133627571622 | -0.0223385414130713 | 0.0244360654496992 | 1.08665255729433 |
| 109 | 1.36410372036211 | -0.289951416380829 | -0.0238470164671378 | 0.283377462737111 | 1.21033161471207 |
| 110 | 0.314718394752158 | -0.197977078004069 | -0.0229120099052798 | -0.00973914044094692 | 0.463091457568367 |
| 111 | -4.10025158356 | -0.898823845379302 | -0.0287030817304252 | -0.147680104468609 | -2.70877542184062 |
| Structural Time Series Model -- Extrapolation | |||
| t | Observed | Level | Seasonal |
| 1 | -1.92595138326871 | -1.47698369961162 | -0.448967683657093 |
| 2 | 0.0432752115202966 | -1.85520505980014 | 1.89848027132043 |
| 3 | -2.25278751271694 | -2.23342641998866 | -0.0193610927282767 |
| 4 | -3.26104921259339 | -2.61164778017718 | -0.64940143241621 |
| 5 | -2.11582543901538 | -2.98986914036571 | 0.874043701350328 |
| 6 | -3.67078672847912 | -3.36809050055423 | -0.302696227924896 |
| 7 | -4.18178406818175 | -3.74631186074275 | -0.435472207439001 |
| 8 | -5.08193943377367 | -4.12453322093127 | -0.9574062128424 |
| 9 | -3.48360160819372 | -4.5027545811198 | 1.01915297292607 |
| 10 | -3.83639425615597 | -4.88097594130832 | 1.04458168515235 |
| 11 | -4.68540427270375 | -5.25919730149684 | 0.573793028793086 |
| 12 | -8.23416546421976 | -5.63741866168536 | -2.5967468025344 |
