Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[200])
199	98.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
200	101.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
201	113.5	110.1121	95.3497	127.9892	0.3552	0.816	0.816	0.816
202	109.5	104.8322	89.3428	124.002	0.3166	0.1877	0.1877	0.6178
203	110	103.3479	87.9089	122.5056	0.2481	0.2645	0.2645	0.5589
204	114.2	107.4255	89.2152	130.7788	0.2848	0.4145	0.4145	0.6786
205	106.9	106.8089	87.1164	132.7029	0.4972	0.2879	0.2879	0.6449
206	109.2	105.3576	85.3976	131.8326	0.388	0.4545	0.4545	0.601
207	124.2	106.9126	85.5874	135.6941	0.1195	0.4381	0.4381	0.6336
208	104.7	107.4992	84.8402	138.6984	0.4302	0.147	0.147	0.6375
209	111.9	106.8808	83.6102	139.3238	0.3809	0.5524	0.5524	0.6183
210	119	107.3841	83.1959	141.5706	0.2527	0.3979	0.3979	0.6234
211	102.9	108.0179	82.7485	144.3095	0.3911	0.2766	0.2766	0.6295
212	106.3	107.9687	81.9384	145.8567	0.4656	0.6034	0.6034	0.6232

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	sMAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE	ScaledE	MASE
201	0.0828	0.0298	0.0298	0.0303	11.4777	0	0	0.4303	0.4303
202	0.0933	0.0426	0.0362	0.0369	21.7888	16.6332	4.0784	0.5929	0.5116
203	0.0946	0.0605	0.0443	0.0454	44.2508	25.8391	5.0832	0.845	0.6227
204	0.1109	0.0593	0.0481	0.0493	45.8942	30.8529	5.5545	0.8605	0.6822
205	0.1237	9e-04	0.0386	0.0396	0.0083	24.6839	4.9683	0.0116	0.5481
206	0.1282	0.0352	0.0381	0.039	14.7644	23.0307	4.799	0.4881	0.5381
207	0.1373	0.1392	0.0525	0.0548	298.8534	62.4339	7.9015	2.1959	0.7749
208	0.1481	-0.0267	0.0493	0.0513	7.8355	55.6091	7.4572	-0.3556	0.7225
209	0.1549	0.0449	0.0488	0.0507	25.192	52.2294	7.227	0.6375	0.713
210	0.1624	0.0976	0.0537	0.0559	134.9298	60.4995	7.7781	1.4755	0.7893
211	0.1714	-0.0497	0.0533	0.0552	26.1933	57.3807	7.575	-0.6501	0.7766
212	0.179	-0.0157	0.0502	0.0519	2.7846	52.8311	7.2685	-0.212	0.7296