| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.0168700570885182 |
| beta | 0.0858454568212193 |
| gamma | 0.248293884948183 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 13 | 13.1097756410256 | -0.109775641025644 |
| 14 | 10 | 10.455229775627 | -0.455229775626988 |
| 15 | 14 | 14.3358634740781 | -0.335863474078065 |
| 16 | 15 | 15.1346911520702 | -0.134691152070177 |
| 17 | 20 | 20.2700508898343 | -0.270050889834337 |
| 18 | 9 | 9.15273600860088 | -0.152736008600877 |
| 19 | 12 | 16.4121790411113 | -4.41217904111132 |
| 20 | 13 | 17.343375230462 | -4.34337523046201 |
| 21 | 16 | 9.39444199089061 | 6.60555800910939 |
| 22 | 12 | 14.3897841665352 | -2.38978416653524 |
| 23 | 14 | 14.7299134782797 | -0.72991347827975 |
| 24 | 15 | 10.5553211629674 | 4.44467883703256 |
| 25 | 19 | 12.1559979119341 | 6.84400208806588 |
| 26 | 16 | 9.54119931842395 | 6.45880068157605 |
| 27 | 16 | 13.5843878353542 | 2.41561216464581 |
| 28 | 14 | 14.4995018014177 | -0.499501801417686 |
| 29 | 14 | 19.6158983644909 | -5.61589836449086 |
| 30 | 14 | 8.44952715823553 | 5.55047284176447 |
| 31 | 13 | 14.7861824051413 | -1.78618240514133 |
| 32 | 18 | 15.8030284357033 | 2.19697156429672 |
| 33 | 15 | 10.6711478525467 | 4.32885214745332 |
| 34 | 15 | 13.4630009366861 | 1.53699906331386 |
| 35 | 15 | 14.3109735749406 | 0.689026425059364 |
| 36 | 13 | 11.4619337203101 | 1.53806627968986 |
| 37 | 14 | 13.6335237257184 | 0.366476274281629 |
| 38 | 15 | 10.8402991928739 | 4.15970080712611 |
| 39 | 14 | 13.8792889543164 | 0.120711045683624 |
| 40 | 19 | 14.0623202923457 | 4.93767970765428 |
| 41 | 16 | 18.0476047005494 | -2.04760470054944 |
| 42 | 16 | 9.69846827755976 | 6.30153172244024 |
| 43 | 12 | 14.2892349908159 | -2.28923499081585 |
| 44 | 10 | 16.3015307859515 | -6.30153078595152 |
| 45 | 11 | 11.5660032182957 | -0.566003218295704 |
| 46 | 13 | 13.6060054719675 | -0.606005471967462 |
| 47 | 14 | 14.2199588566701 | -0.219958856670118 |
| 48 | 11 | 11.5706508092246 | -0.570650809224594 |
| 49 | 11 | 13.4254330351977 | -2.42543303519772 |
| 50 | 16 | 11.5117687506668 | 4.48823124933316 |
| 51 | 9 | 13.5715526726737 | -4.57155267267366 |
| 52 | 16 | 14.8456667528375 | 1.15433324716248 |
| 53 | 19 | 17.0508974890132 | 1.9491025109868 |
| 54 | 13 | 10.8019565881076 | 2.1980434118924 |
| 55 | 15 | 13.2152076721568 | 1.7847923278432 |
| 56 | 14 | 14.3114714159728 | -0.311471415972793 |
| 57 | 15 | 11.0804041901853 | 3.91959580981473 |
| 58 | 11 | 13.1961459877233 | -2.19614598772329 |
| 59 | 14 | 13.8850386979178 | 0.114961302082182 |
| 60 | 15 | 11.1637892159851 | 3.83621078401494 |
| 61 | 17 | 12.6545498009255 | 4.34545019907453 |
| 62 | 16 | 12.566973745181 | 3.43302625481903 |
| 63 | 13 | 12.4200901568178 | 0.579909843182175 |
| 64 | 15 | 15.2089621993132 | -0.208962199313234 |
| 65 | 14 | 17.6133612249509 | -3.61336122495092 |
| 66 | 15 | 11.3514532299765 | 3.64854677002346 |
| 67 | 14 | 13.7105025441549 | 0.289497455845149 |
| 68 | 12 | 14.2898711584974 | -2.28987115849743 |
| 69 | 12 | 12.0754277368542 | -0.0754277368541612 |
| 70 | 15 | 12.6422777167714 | 2.35772228322858 |
| 71 | 17 | 13.9901311804676 | 3.0098688195324 |
| 72 | 13 | 12.2482711213584 | 0.751728878641551 |
| 73 | 5 | 13.8290132781365 | -8.82901327813649 |
| 74 | 7 | 13.2950853853924 | -6.29508538539238 |
| 75 | 10 | 12.2721686566952 | -2.27216865669523 |
| 76 | 15 | 14.8007688871709 | 0.1992311128291 |
| 77 | 9 | 16.3620246109609 | -7.36202461096085 |
| 78 | 9 | 11.7851185299616 | -2.78511852996164 |
| 79 | 15 | 13.181925865951 | 1.818074134049 |
| 80 | 14 | 13.1259137671915 | 0.874086232808471 |
| 81 | 11 | 11.4784549178983 | -0.478454917898311 |
| 82 | 18 | 12.6049179733357 | 5.39508202666425 |
| 83 | 20 | 14.1400706669061 | 5.85992933309389 |
| 84 | 20 | 11.8760616716174 | 8.12393832838263 |
| 85 | 16 | 11.2341354337813 | 4.76586456621867 |
| 86 | 15 | 11.5594576461747 | 3.4405423538253 |
| 87 | 14 | 11.7082544095114 | 2.29174559048858 |
| 88 | 13 | 14.9491972872216 | -1.94919728722157 |
| 89 | 18 | 14.6574237588967 | 3.34257624110331 |
| 90 | 14 | 11.4228101997659 | 2.57718980023406 |
| 91 | 12 | 14.0859677583067 | -2.08596775830665 |
| 92 | 9 | 13.7802327618126 | -4.78023276181264 |
| 93 | 19 | 11.7456051015323 | 7.25439489846766 |
| 94 | 13 | 14.4858633970582 | -1.48586339705824 |
| 95 | 12 | 16.0580216520957 | -4.05802165209575 |
| 96 | 14 | 14.2046050475533 | -0.204605047553272 |
| 97 | 6 | 12.6156436818408 | -6.61564368184081 |
| 98 | 14 | 12.4221493002597 | 1.5778506997403 |
| 99 | 11 | 12.2531056375863 | -1.25310563758627 |
| 100 | 11 | 14.3878874446008 | -3.38788744460079 |
| 101 | 14 | 15.3503855626225 | -1.3503855626225 |
| 102 | 12 | 11.829763510136 | 0.170236489863989 |
| 103 | 19 | 13.2905258618011 | 5.70947413819887 |
| 104 | 13 | 12.4464169636503 | 0.553583036349741 |
| 105 | 14 | 13.4350107519044 | 0.564989248095555 |
| 106 | 17 | 13.9147136342548 | 3.08528636574523 |
| 107 | 12 | 14.9285677127414 | -2.92856771274142 |
| 108 | 16 | 14.0289369556653 | 1.97106304433467 |
| 109 | 15 | 10.9089555552014 | 4.09104444479855 |
| 110 | 15 | 12.9089073151198 | 2.09109268488019 |
| 111 | 15 | 12.0709638330102 | 2.92903616698975 |
| 112 | 16 | 13.7747368122106 | 2.22526318778937 |
| 113 | 15 | 15.3569723154454 | -0.356972315445368 |
| 114 | 12 | 12.2534180636276 | -0.253418063627588 |
| 115 | 13 | 15.0876934318275 | -2.08769343182751 |
| 116 | 14 | 12.870677928931 | 1.12932207106899 |
| 117 | 17 | 13.8898142213446 | 3.11018577865537 |
| 118 | 14 | 15.0494036653355 | -1.04940366533549 |
| 119 | 14 | 14.5412360234008 | -0.541236023400812 |
| 120 | 14 | 14.8971056856367 | -0.897105685636728 |
| 121 | 15 | 12.2612836481967 | 2.7387163518033 |
| 122 | 11 | 13.7633117094692 | -2.76331170946922 |
| 123 | 11 | 13.0540789190033 | -2.05407891900328 |
| 124 | 16 | 14.5008336648073 | 1.49916633519268 |
| 125 | 12 | 15.4382731472036 | -3.43827314720357 |
| 126 | 12 | 12.3013431732901 | -0.301343173290089 |
| 127 | 19 | 14.680312439247 | 4.31968756075303 |
| 128 | 18 | 13.3592176301128 | 4.64078236988721 |
| 129 | 16 | 14.9287546049759 | 1.07124539502412 |
| 130 | 16 | 15.0432400697172 | 0.956759930282779 |
| 131 | 13 | 14.7005385026557 | -1.70053850265568 |
| 132 | 11 | 14.9558777656577 | -3.95587776565768 |
| 133 | 10 | 13.1574439131552 | -3.15744391315517 |
| 134 | 14 | 13.2098580388694 | 0.790141961130592 |
| 135 | 14 | 12.7317737942372 | 1.26822620576283 |
| 136 | 14 | 15.1048271153939 | -1.10482711539392 |
| 137 | 16 | 14.7921971321545 | 1.20780286784554 |
| 138 | 10 | 12.5052304991545 | -2.50523049915448 |
| 139 | 16 | 15.9776887676703 | 0.0223112323296935 |
| 140 | 7 | 14.6589056288409 | -7.65890562884091 |
| 141 | 16 | 15.1282189260768 | 0.871781073923174 |
| 142 | 15 | 15.189719186919 | -0.189719186919048 |
| 143 | 17 | 14.1556821223832 | 2.84431787761676 |
| 144 | 11 | 13.9204012890286 | -2.92040128902857 |
| 145 | 11 | 12.3190852496575 | -1.31908524965753 |
| 146 | 10 | 13.3535484363829 | -3.35354843638295 |
| 147 | 13 | 12.903671551669 | 0.0963284483310289 |
| 148 | 14 | 14.6573920095614 | -0.657392009561409 |
| 149 | 13 | 14.8971948239935 | -1.89719482399345 |
| 150 | 13 | 11.6273390581299 | 1.37266094187005 |
| 151 | 12 | 15.7636825021564 | -3.76368250215643 |
| 152 | 10 | 12.4820008375213 | -2.48200083752129 |
| 153 | 15 | 15.104526703039 | -0.104526703039017 |
| 154 | 6 | 14.8725183128728 | -8.87251831287285 |
| 155 | 15 | 14.402130829601 | 0.597869170398987 |
| 156 | 15 | 12.6880060941625 | 2.31199390583747 |
| 157 | 11 | 11.5396794744113 | -0.53967947441132 |
| 158 | 14 | 12.065626200295 | 1.93437379970498 |
| 159 | 14 | 12.529705519583 | 1.47029448041705 |
| 160 | 16 | 14.107223546688 | 1.89277645331197 |
| 161 | 12 | 14.0757045237581 | -2.07570452375814 |
| 162 | 15 | 11.5890663406606 | 3.41093365933938 |
| 163 | 20 | 14.4969799324014 | 5.50302006759859 |
| 164 | 12 | 11.6889056436492 | 0.311094356350772 |
| 165 | 9 | 14.9473623575443 | -5.94736235754426 |
| 166 | 13 | 12.4764688509414 | 0.523531149058574 |
| 167 | 15 | 14.4899669565901 | 0.51003304340988 |
| 168 | 19 | 13.2062632086682 | 5.79373679133182 |
| 169 | 11 | 11.4390840527321 | -0.43908405273211 |
| 170 | 11 | 12.5893210952181 | -1.58932109521815 |
| 171 | 17 | 12.8942323629892 | 4.1057676370108 |
| 172 | 15 | 14.6367187740627 | 0.363281225937309 |
| 173 | 14 | 13.6258331561133 | 0.374166843886682 |
| 174 | 15 | 12.5385517754538 | 2.46144822454622 |
| 175 | 11 | 15.9584721845036 | -4.9584721845036 |
| 176 | 12 | 11.7087212037699 | 0.291278796230076 |
| 177 | 15 | 13.4412784968206 | 1.55872150317945 |
| 178 | 16 | 12.6896183485106 | 3.31038165148935 |
| 179 | 16 | 14.7638986364735 | 1.23610136352649 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 180 | 14.8003373314275 | 8.45437158366023 | 21.1463030791947 |
| 181 | 11.4236775446292 | 5.07664716259286 | 17.7707079266656 |
| 182 | 12.3109027852231 | 5.96263300258628 | 18.6591725678599 |
| 183 | 14.0454877938287 | 7.69579064479206 | 20.3951849428653 |
| 184 | 14.8118647044148 | 8.46053905151093 | 21.1631903573187 |
| 185 | 13.8036968882278 | 7.4505284541233 | 20.1568653223323 |
| 186 | 13.2252666984755 | 6.87002810202662 | 19.5805052949244 |
| 187 | 14.7945040824984 | 8.43695487930549 | 21.1520532856913 |
| 188 | 11.9191575773292 | 5.55904430502909 | 18.2792708496292 |
| 189 | 13.9650319418697 | 7.60208817039822 | 20.3279757133413 |
| 190 | 13.6212496386442 | 7.25519602569139 | 19.9873032515971 |
| 191 | 15.1351312361843 | 8.76567558805851 | 21.5045868843101 |
