| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.0903364186836296 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 0.122433126801145 | 1.72923686058208 | -1.60680373378094 |
| 3 | 0.523768788982079 | 1.58408396574483 | -1.06031517676275 |
| 4 | -0.50175942601324 | 1.48829889000018 | -1.99005831601342 |
| 5 | -1.86386120887019 | 1.30852414875995 | -3.17238535763014 |
| 6 | 0.0717422351702872 | 1.02194221686726 | -0.950199981696974 |
| 7 | -0.380578531491989 | 0.936104553487506 | -1.31668308497949 |
| 8 | -0.29851611788274 | 0.817160119049145 | -1.11567623693189 |
| 9 | 1.94316215667028 | 0.71637392339429 | 1.22678823327599 |
| 10 | -1.24779901378139 | 0.82719757887166 | -2.07499659265305 |
| 11 | 1.35257277275093 | 0.63974981791065 | 0.71282295484028 |
| 12 | 2.84406850014719 | 0.704143690806403 | 2.13992480934079 |
| 13 | 1.12274878943606 | 0.897456834334499 | 0.225291955101561 |
| 14 | -2.32540657982629 | 0.917808902716607 | -3.2432154825429 |
| 15 | -2.89902363942181 | 0.624828431004382 | -3.52385207042619 |
| 16 | 0.246874012745119 | 0.306496254991187 | -0.0596222422460677 |
| 17 | -0.731094375584061 | 0.301110195152789 | -1.03220457073685 |
| 18 | 1.97769407549524 | 0.207864530883549 | 1.76982954461169 |
| 19 | -0.089308186457892 | 0.367744593624248 | -0.45705278008214 |
| 20 | -1.64931358279907 | 0.326456082322231 | -1.9757696651213 |
| 21 | 1.78988776616251 | 0.147972126631419 | 1.64191563953109 |
| 22 | -0.655026882699021 | 0.296296905287299 | -0.95132378798632 |
| 23 | -0.95518008982139 | 0.21035772127207 | -1.16553781109346 |
| 24 | -0.501427837065876 | 0.10506720957753 | -0.606495046643406 |
| 25 | -1.47468882156665 | 0.050278619114404 | -1.52496744068105 |
| 26 | 2.4255103110643 | -0.0874814780858627 | 2.51299178915016 |
| 27 | -0.388732570521789 | 0.13953320032733 | -0.528265770849119 |
| 28 | -1.41970373897772 | 0.0918115624756735 | -1.51151530145339 |
| 29 | -0.435743764210552 | -0.0447333166431328 | -0.391010447567419 |
| 30 | 0.588337253253952 | -0.0800558001442566 | 0.668393053398209 |
| 31 | -1.73087780677345 | -0.0196755654272465 | -1.7112022413462 |
| 32 | 0.416192838768035 | -0.174259447553862 | 0.590452286321897 |
| 33 | -0.135602934239543 | -0.120920102603981 | -0.0146828316355618 |
| 34 | 1.5607508968729 | -0.122246497030073 | 1.68299739390297 |
| 35 | -0.619488852927662 | 0.0297894601890038 | -0.649278313116666 |
| 36 | 0.130061173484127 | -0.0288640173469041 | 0.158925190831031 |
| 37 | -0.485714783249833 | -0.0145072847686163 | -0.471207498481217 |
| 38 | 1.19042117073251 | -0.0570744826382812 | 1.24749565337079 |
| 39 | 0.504940688912012 | 0.0556198070106306 | 0.449320881901381 |
| 40 | -0.266725732456376 | 0.0962098463213714 | -0.362935578777747 |
| 41 | 1.8987616014054 | 0.0634235459217194 | 1.83533805548368 |
| 42 | 0.9835731579105 | 0.229221412927892 | 0.754351744982608 |
| 43 | 0.221023228988728 | 0.297366847997367 | -0.0763436190086392 |
| 44 | -0.176860990484583 | 0.290470238866779 | -0.467331229351362 |
| 45 | -0.162198287814433 | 0.248253209268159 | -0.410451497082592 |
| 46 | 0.78911590880292 | 0.211174490978384 | 0.577941417824536 |
| 47 | 1.41209201053576 | 0.263383648873592 | 1.14870836166217 |
| 48 | 0.518161844628975 | 0.367153848378091 | 0.151007996250884 |
| 49 | 2.36462043434148 | 0.380795369951987 | 1.98382506438949 |
| 50 | -1.24446105804486 | 0.560007021563755 | -1.80446807960861 |
| 51 | 1.09138861156198 | 0.396997837622986 | 0.694390773938994 |
| 52 | 0.422175612267996 | 0.459726613307589 | -0.0375510010395926 |
| 53 | -0.997989397904933 | 0.456334390355687 | -1.45432378826062 |
| 54 | 0.754650745534752 | 0.324955987717813 | 0.429694757816939 |
| 55 | -1.44375392644115 | 0.363773073266125 | -1.80752699970727 |
| 56 | 0.568632265545353 | 0.200487557438604 | 0.368144708106749 |
| 57 | 1.35413305240232 | 0.233744431926298 | 1.12038862047602 |
| 58 | -1.34288885715882 | 0.334956327433994 | -1.67784518459281 |
| 59 | -0.0968579661829751 | 0.183385802352306 | -0.280243768535281 |
| 60 | 0.242767533935212 | 0.158069583944424 | 0.0846979499907877 |
| 61 | 0.255744783559028 | 0.165720893416437 | 0.0900238901425908 |
| 62 | -0.243232899636027 | 0.173853329247887 | -0.417086228883914 |
| 63 | 0.461607264600104 | 0.136175253048254 | 0.32543201155185 |
| 64 | 0.0650797112167817 | 0.165573615496858 | -0.100493904280076 |
| 65 | 2.25999343044582 | 0.15649535608466 | 2.10349807436116 |
| 66 | 1.80462197944889 | 0.346517838830358 | 1.45810414061853 |
| 67 | 2.32548979115297 | 0.478237744961608 | 1.84725204619136 |
| 68 | 0.682758803307819 | 0.645111879220542 | 0.0376469240872768 |
| 69 | -0.335554613197298 | 0.648512767517041 | -0.984067380714339 |
| 70 | -0.997929583796738 | 0.559615644599928 | -1.55754522839667 |
| 71 | 0.97507128242145 | 0.418912586728797 | 0.556158695692653 |
| 72 | -1.17268516900173 | 0.46915397151743 | -1.64183914051916 |
| 73 | -0.000337278483281606 | 0.320836103508321 | -0.321173381991603 |
| 74 | -1.71460596672184 | 0.29182245040269 | -2.00642841712453 |
| 75 | -1.34872342854985 | 0.110568892854597 | -1.45929232140445 |
| 76 | -1.6521456119588 | -0.0212583492736012 | -1.6308872626852 |
| 77 | -1.48335049731373 | -0.16858686386133 | -1.3147636334524 |
| 78 | 0.925016701443022 | -0.287357901922896 | 1.21237460336592 |
| 79 | -0.226525557050897 | -0.177836322151833 | -0.0486892348990639 |
| 80 | 0.774905929042345 | -0.18223473326106 | 0.957140662303406 |
| 81 | -0.339789522342372 | -0.0957700736520936 | -0.244019448690278 |
| 82 | 0.89311055438168 | -0.117813916735927 | 1.01092447111761 |
| 83 | -0.864578780222597 | -0.0264906204555201 | -0.838088159767077 |
| 84 | -1.95217915873499 | -0.102200503350031 | -1.84997865538496 |
| 85 | -0.11317194501752 | -0.269320949718665 | 0.156149004701145 |
| 86 | 1.02470860347022 | -0.25521500785295 | 1.27992361132317 |
| 87 | -1.25650654087286 | -0.139591292617397 | -1.11691524825546 |
| 88 | -0.602130638597027 | -0.240489416117933 | -0.361641222479094 |
| 89 | -0.83233134657693 | -0.273158789005064 | -0.559172557571866 |
| 90 | -0.446577198612737 | -0.323672435282272 | -0.122904763330465 |
| 91 | -4.01053303468812 | -0.334775211440705 | -3.67575782324741 |
| 92 | 0.288513333839785 | -0.66683000914121 | 0.955343342980995 |
| 93 | -1.00798474916531 | -0.580527712923061 | -0.427457036242249 |
| 94 | -0.572816189634855 | -0.619142650718304 | 0.0463264610834492 |
| 95 | -0.297410570159231 | -0.614957684133739 | 0.317547113974508 |
| 96 | 1.21578539483534 | -0.58627161509396 | 1.8020570099293 |
| 97 | -0.727486991378146 | -0.423480238553217 | -0.304006752824929 |
| 98 | -0.843943364912431 | -0.45094311985906 | -0.393000245053371 |
| 99 | -1.20889338911855 | -0.486445354538971 | -0.722448034579579 |
| 100 | -0.649656515850742 | -0.551708722667917 | -0.0979477931828252 |
| 101 | 3.19984732249364 | -0.560556975522018 | 3.76040429801566 |
| 102 | 0.572738529480399 | -0.220855518436756 | 0.793594047917155 |
| 103 | -0.0199646221520179 | -0.149165074259275 | 0.129200452107257 |
| 104 | 0.462316869083462 | -0.1374935681236 | 0.599810437207062 |
| 105 | -1.28699501625665 | -0.0833088413372517 | -1.2036861749194 |
| 106 | -1.80757939159691 | -0.192045539598467 | -1.61553385199844 |
| 107 | -2.15431670426712 | -0.337987082050175 | -1.81632962221694 |
| 108 | 0.707840316820782 | -0.502067795270244 | 1.20990811209103 |
| 109 | 1.36410372036211 | -0.392769029487669 | 1.75687274984978 |
| 110 | 0.314718394752158 | -0.23405943718338 | 0.548777831935538 |
| 111 | -4.1002515835693 | -0.184484813193357 | -3.91576677037594 |
| 112 | 1.26992188862053 | -0.538221159629482 | 1.80814304825001 |
| 113 | 1.80144339707427 | -0.374879992182875 | 2.17632338925714 |
| 114 | -0.42970220964945 | -0.178278731299966 | -0.251423478349484 |
| 115 | 0.529993653035631 | -0.200991427907039 | 0.73098508094267 |
| 116 | 1.18764422512472 | -0.134956853583515 | 1.32260107870824 |
| 117 | -0.398233352310507 | -0.015477808785908 | -0.382755543524599 |
| 118 | -0.421884162222733 | -0.0500545738192263 | -0.371829588403507 |
| 119 | -2.6898323919027 | -0.0836443271962072 | -2.60618806470649 |
| 120 | 1.0140628812162 | -0.319078023377811 | 1.33314090459401 |
| 121 | -0.542058945797581 | -0.198646848456134 | -0.343412097341447 |
| 122 | -0.368690243263354 | -0.229669467462594 | -0.13902077580076 |
| 123 | 1.31411524584048 | -0.242228106471055 | 1.55634335231153 |
| 124 | -0.428705333764204 | -0.101633621781156 | -0.327071711983048 |
| 125 | -0.663582558495647 | -0.131180108894428 | -0.532402449601219 |
| 126 | 1.37204511801761 | -0.179275439489794 | 1.5513205575074 |
| 127 | -1.27310996987184 | -0.0391346960942836 | -1.23397527377756 |
| 128 | 0.810157913937622 | -0.150607603071499 | 0.960765517009121 |
| 129 | 1.5741305304336 | -0.0638154870701695 | 1.63794601750377 |
| 130 | -1.025150115941 | 0.0841506901482346 | -1.10930080608923 |
| 131 | -0.998930862337702 | -0.0160595719167302 | -0.982871290420972 |
| 132 | -0.0536208441845616 | -0.104848644320318 | 0.0512278001357568 |
| 133 | 1.66337771592794 | -0.100220908319013 | 1.76359862424695 |
| 134 | -0.178008462116163 | 0.0590962753908325 | -0.237104737506996 |
| 135 | -1.09164775518912 | 0.0376770825515285 | -1.12932483774065 |
| 136 | 1.96797905166753 | -0.0643420788204328 | 2.03232113048796 |
| 137 | 0.634220496887586 | 0.119250533722915 | 0.514969963164671 |
| 138 | 1.38764487483822 | 0.165771075924852 | 1.22187379891337 |
| 139 | 0.75570654001001 | 0.276150779002047 | 0.479555761007963 |
| 140 | -2.3214750727902 | 0.319472129010609 | -2.64094720180081 |
| 141 | 1.62023993830839 | 0.0808984168673714 | 1.53934152144102 |
| 142 | 0.423224828517651 | 0.219957017045363 | 0.203267811472288 |
| 143 | -1.7051130142733 | 0.238319503167428 | -1.94343251744073 |
| 144 | 0.541981863740972 | 0.0627567695885225 | 0.47922509415245 |
| 145 | -0.593027838089475 | 0.10604824833758 | -0.699076086427055 |
| 146 | 0.213567450337977 | 0.0428962183023923 | 0.170671232035585 |
| 147 | -0.696840242545287 | 0.0583140461768098 | -0.755154288722097 |
| 148 | 0.0777251570183703 | -0.00990388781992803 | 0.0876290448382983 |
| 149 | -0.725328497765991 | -0.00198779373656896 | -0.723340704029422 |
| 150 | 2.1315776363419 | -0.0673318024266822 | 2.19890943876858 |
| 151 | -0.33645518676905 | 0.131309801281301 | -0.467764988050351 |
| 152 | -0.979182554450992 | 0.0890535874752418 | -1.06823614192623 |
| 153 | -0.242246084610725 | -0.00744703989479158 | -0.234799044715933 |
| 154 | -1.82980075345691 | -0.0286579447047664 | -1.80114280875214 |
| 155 | -1.14814874978528 | -0.191366735585209 | -0.956782014200071 |
| 156 | 0.496126806273696 | -0.277798996208953 | 0.773925802482649 |
| 157 | -0.37803015357093 | -0.207885310885816 | -0.170144842685114 |
| 158 | 0.564631359789787 | -0.223255586631479 | 0.787886946421266 |
| 159 | 0.268965939275992 | -0.152080701564201 | 0.421046640840193 |
| 160 | 0.752661368724124 | -0.114044855931926 | 0.86670622465605 |
| 161 | -2.30203173253409 | -0.0357497195456888 | -2.2662820129884 |
| 162 | 2.82635859577673 | -0.240477520326188 | 3.06683611610292 |
| 163 | -0.607627712639158 | 0.0365694710921617 | -0.64419718373132 |
| 164 | 3.77405193258893 | -0.0216249954122058 | 3.79567692800114 |
| 165 | 1.08426693162876 | 0.321262864743498 | 0.763004066885262 |
| 166 | -2.2508985634727 | 0.390189919586957 | -2.64108848305966 |
| 167 | 0.290663952981133 | 0.151603444600768 | 0.139060508380365 |
| 168 | -1.1346060583543 | 0.164165672908175 | -1.29877173126247 |
| 169 | 1.41583984485642 | 0.0468392860183853 | 1.36900055883803 |
| 170 | 0.590041695581542 | 0.170509893679701 | 0.419531801901841 |
| 171 | 1.22056539827692 | 0.208408894187403 | 1.01215650408952 |
| 172 | 0.0970995178245223 | 0.299843487914193 | -0.20274397008967 |
| 173 | -0.906020145960084 | 0.281528323746591 | -1.18754846970667 |
| 174 | -0.597681226735446 | 0.174249447980065 | -0.771930674715511 |
| 175 | 0.437155726246844 | 0.104515995354228 | 0.332639730892616 |
| 176 | 0.742487563055592 | 0.134565477354953 | 0.607922085700639 |
| 177 | 1.22917286536281 | 0.189482981415832 | 1.03968988394698 |
| 178 | -0.95259160353182 | 0.2834048420732 | -1.23599644560502 |
| 179 | -0.75528682870179 | 0.171749349671547 | -0.927036178373337 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 180 | 0.0880042213271413 | -2.58308041665158 | 2.75908885930586 |
| 181 | 0.0880042213271413 | -2.59395718949269 | 2.76996563214697 |
| 182 | 0.0880042213271413 | -2.60479002907661 | 2.78079847173089 |
| 183 | 0.0880042213271413 | -2.61557946350459 | 2.79158790615887 |
| 184 | 0.0880042213271413 | -2.6263260103818 | 2.80233445303608 |
| 185 | 0.0880042213271413 | -2.63703017710711 | 2.81303861976139 |
| 186 | 0.0880042213271413 | -2.64769246115261 | 2.8237009038069 |
| 187 | 0.0880042213271413 | -2.65831335033342 | 2.8343217929877 |
| 188 | 0.0880042213271413 | -2.66889332306807 | 2.84490176572235 |
| 189 | 0.0880042213271413 | -2.67943284863003 | 2.85544129128432 |
| 190 | 0.0880042213271413 | -2.68993238739055 | 2.86594083004484 |
| 191 | 0.0880042213271413 | -2.70039239105331 | 2.87640083370759 |
