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62.4
67.4
76.1
67.4
74.5
72.6
60.5
66.1
76.5
76.8
77
71
74.8
73.7
80.5
71.8
76.9
79.9
65.9
69.5
75.1
79.6
75.2
68
72.8
71.5
78.5
76.8
75.3
76.7
69.7
67.8
77.5
82.5
75.3
70.9
76
73.7
79.7
77.8
73.3
78.3
71.9
67
82
83.7
74.8
80
74.3
76.8
89
81.9
76.8
88.9
75.8
75.5
89.1
88
85.9
89.3
82.9
81.2
90.5
86.4
81.8
91.3
73.4
76.6
91
87
89.7
90.7
86.5
86.6
98.8
84.4
91.4
95.7
78.5
81.7
94.3
98.5
95.4
91.7
92.8
90.5
102.2
91.8
95
102
88.9
89.6
97.9
108.6
100.8
95.1
101
100.9
102.5
105.4
98.4
105.3
96.5
88.1
107.9
107
92.5
95.7
85.2
85.5
94.7
86.2
88.8
93.4
83.4
82.9
96.7
96.2
92.8
92.8
90
95.4
108.3
96.3
95
109
92
92.3
107
105.5
105.4
103.9
99.2
102.2
121.5
102.3
110
105.9
91.9
100
111.7
104.9
103.3
101.8
100.8
104.2
116.5
97.9
100.7
107
96.3
96
104.5
107.4
102.4
94.9
98.8
96.8
108.2
103.8
102.3
107.2
102
92.6
105.2
113
105.6
101.6
101.7
102.7
109
105.5
103.3
108.6
98.2
90
112.4
111.9
102.1
102.4
101.7
98.7
114
105.1
98.3
110
96.5
92.2
112
111.4
107.5
103.4
103.5
107.4
117.6
110.2
104.3
115.9
98.9
101.9
113.5
109.5
110
114.2
106.9
109.2
124.2
104.7
111.9
119
102.9
106.3

par4 <- '12'
par3 <- 'additive'
par2 <- 'Triple'
par1 <- 'pearson'
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
par4 <- as.numeric(par4)
if (par2 == 'Single') K <- 1
if (par2 == 'Double') K <- 2
if (par2 == 'Triple') K <- par1
nx <- length(x)
nxmK <- nx - K
x <- ts(x, frequency = par1)
if (par2 == 'Single') fit <- HoltWinters(x, gamma=F, beta=F)
if (par2 == 'Double') fit <- HoltWinters(x, gamma=F)
if (par2 == 'Triple') fit <- HoltWinters(x, seasonal=par3)
fit
myresid <- x - fit$fitted[,'xhat']
bitmap(file='test1.png')
op <- par(mfrow=c(2,1))
plot(fit,ylab='Observed (black) / Fitted (red)',main='Interpolation Fit of Exponential Smoothing')
plot(myresid,ylab='Residuals',main='Interpolation Prediction Errors')
par(op)
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
p <- predict(fit, par4, prediction.interval=TRUE)
np <- length(p[,1])
plot(fit,p,ylab='Observed (black) / Fitted (red)',main='Extrapolation Fit of Exponential Smoothing')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
op <- par(mfrow = c(2,2))
acf(as.numeric(myresid),lag.max = nx/2,main='Residual ACF')
spectrum(myresid,main='Residals Periodogram')
cpgram(myresid,main='Residal Cumulative Periodogram')
qqnorm(myresid,main='Residual Normal QQ Plot')
qqline(myresid)
par(op)
dev.off()
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing',2,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'alpha',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,fit$alpha)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'beta',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,fit$beta)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'gamma',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,fit$gamma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'t',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Observed',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Fitted',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Residuals',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:nxmK) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i+K,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i+K])
a<-table.element(a,fit$fitted[i,'xhat'])
a<-table.element(a,myresid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'t',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Forecast',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'95% Lower Bound',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'95% Upper Bound',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:np) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,p[i,'fit'])
a<-table.element(a,p[i,'lwr'])
a<-table.element(a,p[i,'upr'])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')