Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[188])
187	96.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
188	92.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
189	112	102.7988	90.8283	114.7693	0.066	0.9587	0.9587	0.9587
190	111.4	104.2677	91.9524	116.5829	0.1282	0.1092	0.1092	0.9726
191	107.5	100.5478	88.2181	112.8776	0.1345	0.0423	0.0423	0.9077
192	103.4	99.3322	86.8096	111.8549	0.2622	0.1006	0.1006	0.8679
193	103.5	100.5129	87.3673	113.6586	0.328	0.3334	0.3334	0.8924
194	107.4	101.1803	87.633	114.7275	0.1841	0.3686	0.3686	0.9031
195	117.6	100.8558	87.086	114.6255	0.0086	0.1758	0.1758	0.891
196	110.2	100.5471	86.5353	114.559	0.0885	0.0085	0.0085	0.8785
197	104.3	100.614	86.3012	114.9268	0.3069	0.0946	0.0946	0.8754
198	115.9	100.7419	86.1322	115.3516	0.021	0.3166	0.3166	0.8741
199	98.9	100.7396	85.8622	115.6169	0.4043	0.0229	0.0229	0.8697
200	101.9	100.6911	85.5555	115.8267	0.4378	0.5917	0.5917	0.8642
201	113.5	100.6833	85.2864	116.0802	0.0514	0.4385	0.4385	0.8599
202	109.5	100.7002	85.0432	116.3571	0.1353	0.0545	0.0545	0.8564
203	110	100.7061	84.7956	116.6166	0.1261	0.1393	0.1393	0.8526
204	114.2	100.7008	84.5422	116.8594	0.0508	0.1297	0.1297	0.8488
205	106.9	100.6976	84.2942	117.1011	0.2293	0.0533	0.0533	0.845
206	109.2	100.6991	84.0537	117.3445	0.1584	0.2326	0.2326	0.8415
207	124.2	100.7005	83.8167	117.5843	0.0032	0.1619	0.1619	0.8381
208	104.7	100.7002	83.5816	117.8188	0.3235	0.0036	0.0036	0.8348
209	111.9	100.6996	83.3494	118.0498	0.1029	0.3257	0.3257	0.8315
210	119	100.6996	83.1208	118.2785	0.0207	0.1059	0.1059	0.8284
211	102.9	100.6999	82.8953	118.5044	0.4043	0.022	0.022	0.8253
212	106.3	100.6999	82.6724	118.7274	0.2713	0.4055	0.4055	0.8223

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	sMAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE	ScaledE	MASE
189	0.0594	0.0822	0.0822	0.0857	84.6626	0	0	1.2756	1.2756
190	0.0603	0.064	0.0731	0.0759	50.8699	67.7662	8.232	0.9888	1.1322
191	0.0626	0.0647	0.0703	0.0729	48.333	61.2885	7.8287	0.9638	1.0761
192	0.0643	0.0393	0.0625	0.0647	16.5466	50.103	7.0783	0.5639	0.9481
193	0.0667	0.0289	0.0558	0.0576	8.9225	41.8669	6.4705	0.4141	0.8413
194	0.0683	0.0579	0.0562	0.0579	38.685	41.3366	6.4294	0.8623	0.8448
195	0.0697	0.1424	0.0685	0.0716	280.3698	75.4842	8.6882	2.3214	1.0557
196	0.0711	0.0876	0.0709	0.0741	93.1778	77.6959	8.8145	1.3383	1.091
197	0.0726	0.0353	0.0669	0.0698	13.5866	70.5727	8.4008	0.511	1.0266
198	0.074	0.1308	0.0733	0.0769	229.7688	86.4923	9.3001	2.1015	1.1341
199	0.0753	-0.0186	0.0683	0.0715	3.384	78.937	8.8846	-0.255	1.0542
200	0.0767	0.0119	0.0636	0.0666	1.4614	72.4807	8.5136	0.1676	0.9803
201	0.078	0.1129	0.0674	0.0707	164.2669	79.5412	8.9186	1.7769	1.0416
202	0.0793	0.0804	0.0683	0.0716	77.4373	79.3909	8.9102	1.22	1.0543
203	0.0806	0.0845	0.0694	0.0727	86.3771	79.8566	8.9363	1.2885	1.0699
204	0.0819	0.1182	0.0725	0.076	182.2281	86.2548	9.2873	1.8715	1.12
205	0.0831	0.058	0.0716	0.0751	38.4692	83.4439	9.1348	0.8599	1.1047
206	0.0843	0.0778	0.072	0.0754	72.266	82.8229	9.1007	1.1786	1.1088
207	0.0855	0.1892	0.0781	0.0824	552.2264	107.5284	10.3696	3.2579	1.2219
208	0.0867	0.0382	0.0761	0.0802	15.9982	102.9519	10.1465	0.5545	1.1886
209	0.0879	0.1001	0.0773	0.0814	125.4481	104.0231	10.1992	1.5528	1.2059
210	0.0891	0.1538	0.0808	0.0853	334.9034	114.5177	10.7013	2.5371	1.2664
211	0.0902	0.0214	0.0782	0.0825	4.8406	109.7491	10.4761	0.305	1.2246
212	0.0913	0.0527	0.0771	0.0814	31.3612	106.4829	10.3191	0.7764	1.2059