Structural Time Series Model -- Interpolation | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 63.2 | 63.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 68.6 | 65.6524591650083 | 0.124228064916354 | 1.82798631784198 | 1.36412315046348 |
3 | 77.7 | 71.7910138037179 | 0.561622173852492 | 3.92511967327465 | 2.80601611043374 |
4 | 68.1 | 71.1583760598301 | 0.491776712577461 | -2.57539691350886 | -0.653578431429209 |
5 | 75.1 | 72.6318237513863 | 0.533110817761241 | 2.01814623839744 | 0.586769458524257 |
6 | 73.3 | 73.1813404649716 | 0.5336265123423 | 0.110758042659201 | 0.0101337287536516 |
7 | 60.5 | 68.4013868711329 | 0.396247341814285 | -5.29575482725504 | -3.31969076315596 |
8 | 65.9 | 66.5410928034808 | 0.343845124817883 | 0.472695405507515 | -1.41531589930894 |
9 | 77.7 | 70.5069943659202 | 0.423473722247008 | 5.40098474590871 | 2.27480262011418 |
10 | 77.1 | 73.8256906227803 | 0.485182964503811 | 1.84056259559972 | 1.81919036913534 |
11 | 77.7 | 75.9735431491248 | 0.519839779051621 | 0.902677961352442 | 1.04497619626921 |
12 | 71.3 | 74.5987921618269 | 0.481124342961773 | -2.35973031593895 | -1.19097578939291 |
13 | 76 | 76.6047020857021 | 0.410840062368635 | -1.41693547047302 | 1.10728344130446 |
14 | 75.3 | 77.2448399290543 | 0.412023595319379 | -2.05170398917802 | 0.14334899123291 |
15 | 81.7 | 77.6556440534894 | 0.411988540611521 | 4.04485179396469 | -0.000690489722477479 |
16 | 72.5 | 77.1388268290835 | 0.38196369788879 | -4.25728502254232 | -0.536177928419638 |
17 | 77.4 | 76.3408737437684 | 0.348623497556781 | 1.56866518600428 | -0.709684740116898 |
18 | 81.1 | 76.9764269899615 | 0.355195118906757 | 3.99518754763356 | 0.177180328793698 |
19 | 65.1 | 74.6373554422699 | 0.304594316259329 | -8.30956230204533 | -1.68498440082108 |
20 | 68.7 | 72.8610336251326 | 0.270773063835156 | -3.20476793467003 | -1.30858794064674 |
21 | 75.6 | 72.3158915664201 | 0.258679075325696 | 3.66044605769789 | -0.514258675072757 |
22 | 79.7 | 74.5796284436994 | 0.286050887340128 | 4.19372925597306 | 1.26487656050225 |
23 | 75.3 | 74.8509746883399 | 0.285882409589817 | 0.455836332441204 | -0.00928005258715786 |
24 | 67.7 | 73.6484919143684 | 0.27702935758844 | -5.25496974238159 | -0.94227780014919 |
25 | 73.2 | 73.8073050532198 | 0.277893684024104 | -0.550748754290268 | -0.0771820772136854 |
26 | 72.2 | 73.957770098071 | 0.277354455072453 | -1.69914228918332 | -0.0801569994269886 |
27 | 79.3 | 74.3051043872716 | 0.278487098878466 | 4.96456715659628 | 0.0420494590707966 |
28 | 77.5 | 76.9802705169672 | 0.329305134582883 | -0.502994768384301 | 1.43142014785552 |
29 | 75.6 | 76.3552386614071 | 0.309111089473543 | -0.34127363603892 | -0.579434586680639 |
30 | 77.4 | 74.6834856540974 | 0.271707160708865 | 3.59422090951639 | -1.22387089451622 |
31 | 69.2 | 75.1101740970837 | 0.274224453093414 | -5.97990535908753 | 0.0968665309772874 |
32 | 67.1 | 73.5715298265946 | 0.2488298068643 | -5.64845571031145 | -1.14025196929344 |
33 | 77.9 | 74.0144840467268 | 0.251192958061548 | 3.79694024519356 | 0.122471316588714 |
34 | 82.7 | 75.6641245523866 | 0.265597595587514 | 6.39593318407305 | 0.883326244188961 |
35 | 75.7 | 75.615597030043 | 0.263151176159852 | 0.228500369286628 | -0.19854455303524 |
36 | 70.1 | 75.6347797330424 | 0.262100689247143 | -5.42242070507621 | -0.154587156241976 |
37 | 76.4 | 76.2631889261852 | 0.262511741353075 | -0.0328897522719462 | 0.233382403683498 |
38 | 74.3 | 76.5639686525237 | 0.262716631455545 | -2.28139410214325 | 0.0240098637220957 |
39 | 80.5 | 76.7285858547454 | 0.261592617030431 | 3.81483820954824 | -0.0602189536702744 |
40 | 78 | 77.1729581126454 | 0.264392385367391 | 0.747227139414344 | 0.111353079191409 |
41 | 73.5 | 75.7496066840714 | 0.236712392865798 | -1.50948611416906 | -1.0346095193809 |
42 | 78.8 | 75.3490020208426 | 0.226748772480021 | 3.73379399809856 | -0.394861638190411 |
43 | 71.2 | 75.7250230143189 | 0.228843938716579 | -4.59201091604506 | 0.0933223793490384 |
44 | 66.2 | 74.6611180274404 | 0.213032568543493 | -7.87627846004152 | -0.812934250147559 |
45 | 82.7 | 76.3327804944727 | 0.228226095030818 | 5.70399595344899 | 0.920117539459184 |
46 | 83.8 | 77.0289733169379 | 0.232216545546167 | 6.55760080834656 | 0.295603840581434 |
47 | 75 | 76.4543586972353 | 0.226985009167722 | -1.08560990561634 | -0.510025213355563 |
48 | 80.4 | 79.8419999405219 | 0.241348364145369 | -0.88923075785938 | 1.99983365708927 |
49 | 74.6 | 78.681542033083 | 0.236078141477134 | -3.43981959181837 | -0.886485173766446 |
50 | 77.7 | 79.0140602617956 | 0.236646459039391 | -1.35777699857392 | 0.0604716253061491 |
51 | 89.8 | 81.5601663109235 | 0.258093226014392 | 7.20858192542966 | 1.43145684597811 |
52 | 82.4 | 81.7475027879698 | 0.257247137044382 | 0.68379896118839 | -0.0436109158368843 |
53 | 77 | 80.6114933188176 | 0.23892625674781 | -2.9949329349289 | -0.860666493039854 |
54 | 89.6 | 82.3770135068263 | 0.258814835467262 | 6.54304013347081 | 0.949044786407389 |
55 | 75.7 | 81.9023873351695 | 0.249962217859255 | -5.87314767719573 | -0.458946471265177 |
56 | 75.1 | 82.638493425794 | 0.255160966325175 | -7.75814262287695 | 0.305669602180608 |
57 | 89.9 | 83.5252105211737 | 0.260935591511867 | 6.08815934047225 | 0.398234571702845 |
58 | 88.8 | 83.3903664483452 | 0.257951839453335 | 5.58976086449508 | -0.249913882941124 |
59 | 86.5 | 85.511620639818 | 0.269161965461572 | 0.138915992359116 | 1.17731741401713 |
60 | 90 | 87.6825012723402 | 0.278468103330762 | 1.4499368124236 | 1.20163397472086 |
61 | 84 | 88.2997226588247 | 0.280073061586697 | -4.45400087724721 | 0.213669891677145 |
62 | 82.7 | 87.4888839019949 | 0.273511072673717 | -4.29518566385069 | -0.684405033602348 |
63 | 91.7 | 86.3488219567836 | 0.262118957118449 | 5.98528678177244 | -0.880889511395043 |
64 | 87.5 | 86.276877934671 | 0.258820137103809 | 1.37205949166009 | -0.207385973641458 |
65 | 82 | 86.1881027610025 | 0.255037485766506 | -4.03324556663779 | -0.215949082980255 |
66 | 92.2 | 86.0114967731953 | 0.250289802468665 | 6.38149750749921 | -0.269192409234476 |
67 | 73.1 | 83.7747858151901 | 0.224375659450967 | -9.55691424406941 | -1.55808622491012 |
68 | 75.6 | 83.5487303355947 | 0.220139407263028 | -7.74526609203164 | -0.28324861144829 |
69 | 91.6 | 84.4303268062063 | 0.225547023513384 | 6.86977752138259 | 0.416963496236795 |
70 | 87.5 | 84.307261846104 | 0.223138273472012 | 3.35117595379505 | -0.220041388711683 |
71 | 90.1 | 86.7345295886835 | 0.235919325396078 | 2.36240885455524 | 1.39192847187696 |
72 | 91.3 | 88.2698291626574 | 0.24254680839296 | 2.43876548405779 | 0.820309938075494 |
73 | 87.6 | 89.6289451583049 | 0.248248472398175 | -2.53624911780166 | 0.703669289720707 |
74 | 88.4 | 90.7299502681455 | 0.253307719870316 | -2.71573411127201 | 0.535477986648726 |
75 | 100.7 | 92.3172829500918 | 0.262962737107222 | 7.78252918374272 | 0.834192400825767 |
76 | 85.3 | 89.5544464881353 | 0.237308648281783 | -2.89864197028342 | -1.88728741911891 |
77 | 92 | 91.2370144193563 | 0.25068804729131 | 0.115960948319145 | 0.901628691659718 |
78 | 96.8 | 90.8289953021235 | 0.244471628213484 | 6.26650695376378 | -0.411900767786872 |
79 | 77.9 | 89.6702024080753 | 0.231728884353524 | -11.1384401678013 | -0.880243468636813 |
80 | 80.9 | 89.4205534038988 | 0.227711879306831 | -8.30304015585067 | -0.302810540985029 |
81 | 95.3 | 89.2965314925999 | 0.225106549800156 | 6.16286919695362 | -0.221697131770567 |
82 | 99.3 | 92.2995547709785 | 0.243004235733229 | 5.73902869936387 | 1.75289329883246 |
83 | 96.1 | 93.7807334899901 | 0.249978981711991 | 1.75645021855797 | 0.781608352047372 |
84 | 92.5 | 93.1398824015092 | 0.245375065608676 | -0.234977613046674 | -0.562123325201428 |
85 | 93.7 | 94.4433198412021 | 0.250880764104372 | -1.22352538563939 | 0.666689564877416 |
86 | 92.1 | 94.9669150237758 | 0.252450566844861 | -2.99031974071642 | 0.171412351581197 |
87 | 103.6 | 94.952310730568 | 0.250682335641503 | 8.76809740107024 | -0.167399749194086 |
88 | 92.5 | 95.4191763592049 | 0.25229899696526 | -3.01638188417499 | 0.135279474205359 |
89 | 95.7 | 95.4273246970304 | 0.25033156374807 | 0.38237216126921 | -0.152779424672612 |
90 | 103.4 | 95.8613365396517 | 0.251843745237495 | 7.45603559984303 | 0.115108955944265 |
91 | 89 | 97.5301781295232 | 0.263191001286213 | -9.1691457941533 | 0.889927589804505 |
92 | 89.1 | 98.0556678112669 | 0.265152456444343 | -9.07426182233054 | 0.165076618162829 |
93 | 98.7 | 96.9608606115583 | 0.255935544135682 | 2.3554218488085 | -0.857227190397956 |
94 | 109.4 | 99.472273411536 | 0.269592252626163 | 8.90400390713171 | 1.42303248995303 |
95 | 101.1 | 99.8745275307274 | 0.270316781167467 | 1.16521143395022 | 0.0837256470743134 |
96 | 95.4 | 98.8117815986236 | 0.263471920958775 | -2.80630791297826 | -0.841025761896841 |
97 | 101.4 | 100.152417591697 | 0.269034090112471 | 0.758896072265381 | 0.678829268605243 |
98 | 102.1 | 102.204280717603 | 0.27890803633901 | -0.911426620048634 | 1.12159370180289 |
99 | 103.6 | 100.122512123078 | 0.264447596861376 | 4.54364558802407 | -1.48241988078576 |
100 | 106 | 103.068444744184 | 0.282475390585945 | 1.72276686196798 | 1.68190434903634 |
101 | 98.4 | 102.044021547136 | 0.273134275477121 | -3.0552395845932 | -0.819667713619804 |
102 | 106.6 | 101.278528851848 | 0.265558348861666 | 5.78973890409101 | -0.652029612205144 |
103 | 95.8 | 102.596394143421 | 0.273080836119439 | -7.27161086894877 | 0.661607976746713 |
104 | 87.2 | 100.619823979478 | 0.257857176396087 | -12.4019255162994 | -1.41656781506577 |
105 | 108.5 | 102.802030142527 | 0.269882010347557 | 4.82575275464401 | 1.21320214476926 |
106 | 107 | 101.599388486532 | 0.261471847269366 | 6.06886951232973 | -0.92905012773304 |
107 | 92 | 97.6157191857581 | 0.239085162983909 | -3.68799552217603 | -2.67903789632068 |
108 | 94.9 | 97.4254603796561 | 0.236923508484798 | -2.33051259429786 | -0.270875680502581 |
109 | 84.4 | 92.8869555623634 | 0.212805410528595 | -6.32046631463782 | -3.01036990312945 |
110 | 85 | 89.4886719579705 | 0.193646796913575 | -2.85282209561563 | -2.27360918428542 |
111 | 94 | 89.4094822185096 | 0.192088975401885 | 4.71390800662612 | -0.171568801263115 |
112 | 84.5 | 86.8114878546021 | 0.174987634900185 | -1.05130182447822 | -1.7530759134176 |
113 | 88.2 | 87.858190693776 | 0.180599033693973 | -0.0517349160666241 | 0.547675916345647 |
114 | 92.1 | 87.61916143447 | 0.177849419857415 | 4.67037231295656 | -0.26380634386066 |
115 | 81.1 | 87.5353223615988 | 0.176160144408192 | -6.31699077504151 | -0.164687231791262 |
116 | 81.2 | 89.8414615294274 | 0.189323046712929 | -9.60595918452316 | 1.34195259286836 |
117 | 96.1 | 90.0946142462201 | 0.189693106771137 | 5.97644463148826 | 0.0402520311711354 |
118 | 95.3 | 88.8565741489363 | 0.181985345322167 | 7.09140205324961 | -0.90088958607903 |
119 | 92.1 | 90.5907891509813 | 0.189860086412177 | 0.804387515751656 | 0.979648351036364 |
120 | 91.7 | 90.8991875851384 | 0.190440223133709 | 0.746990837405535 | 0.0747967577524701 |
121 | 90.3 | 92.238013672666 | 0.196064864068625 | -2.45910985195384 | 0.724187604538941 |
122 | 96.1 | 94.6608647777337 | 0.207357346126727 | 0.429750886628464 | 1.40302994040701 |
123 | 108.7 | 97.9432989241018 | 0.223813902367776 | 9.36441789743142 | 1.93583317603611 |
124 | 95.9 | 98.3905461742546 | 0.225075757266021 | -2.59161733443855 | 0.140576766125258 |
125 | 95.1 | 97.3981759389234 | 0.217929809641179 | -1.74764507450442 | -0.765921534374438 |
126 | 109.4 | 100.031923320981 | 0.232320459256368 | 8.2753089843641 | 1.52048335746038 |
127 | 91.2 | 100.082787733124 | 0.231251710187562 | -8.80064269326921 | -0.11429051936231 |
128 | 91.4 | 100.490071432377 | 0.232253279281294 | -9.16984248458516 | 0.110965323456657 |
129 | 107.4 | 100.869816943829 | 0.233050866676792 | 6.46327957863781 | 0.0930403591060668 |
130 | 105.6 | 100.611311771464 | 0.230538550792402 | 5.21182705640505 | -0.310226159969405 |
131 | 105.3 | 102.270314527517 | 0.237491499284553 | 2.38099356358708 | 0.901671921171108 |
132 | 103.7 | 103.393465936867 | 0.241681102530788 | -0.0956473499313628 | 0.558962437755374 |
133 | 99.5 | 103.876697069077 | 0.242822584408746 | -4.48633764175835 | 0.152382454818395 |
134 | 103.2 | 104.304383056816 | 0.243717820958656 | -1.18823150556562 | 0.116550187784898 |
135 | 123.1 | 107.831875750298 | 0.260260587652019 | 13.7799228118892 | 2.06905180264209 |
136 | 102.2 | 107.403102368205 | 0.256645319724389 | -4.89103211676542 | -0.433975269295727 |
137 | 110 | 109.461212134105 | 0.266384520185342 | -0.276910394256223 | 1.13455343956077 |
138 | 106.2 | 105.852870319613 | 0.245187978809776 | 2.10195154581562 | -2.44099126882478 |
139 | 91.3 | 103.433938237817 | 0.230741225852172 | -10.9267046308589 | -1.67922253337078 |
140 | 99.3 | 104.976692059077 | 0.237663525653677 | -6.27166879525113 | 0.827475457047331 |
141 | 111.8 | 105.51582493872 | 0.239191140790203 | 6.1473629299251 | 0.190235934526244 |
142 | 104.4 | 103.877002090598 | 0.230090672674475 | 1.37575958192386 | -1.18551346751354 |
143 | 102.4 | 102.613667681745 | 0.223127900277872 | 0.464667112228405 | -0.942870548155687 |
144 | 101 | 102.143738946875 | 0.219970276104562 | -0.828945781720249 | -0.437516719586762 |
145 | 100.6 | 103.476682947159 | 0.225029512771284 | -3.38205047585154 | 0.702387908636498 |
146 | 104.5 | 105.162687519681 | 0.23178472060491 | -1.32572593171176 | 0.921608067409601 |
147 | 117.4 | 104.856014462102 | 0.229222055273919 | 12.7882140792994 | -0.339522723312786 |
148 | 97.4 | 103.998495846233 | 0.223889522981971 | -6.10580466108826 | -0.68504679982172 |
149 | 99.5 | 101.546955220659 | 0.210456988600024 | -0.834224804974356 | -1.68643211929314 |
150 | 106.4 | 101.778907813584 | 0.210565902868826 | 4.61134720215395 | 0.0135523110649059 |
151 | 95.2 | 103.645989594189 | 0.21890075802558 | -9.19727229275902 | 1.04477962385899 |
152 | 94 | 102.730685093402 | 0.213316956622752 | -8.2160042991736 | -0.715673454067603 |
153 | 104.1 | 100.525139064941 | 0.201784854255049 | 4.67310157919318 | -1.5268995859857 |
154 | 105.8 | 101.337535293177 | 0.204594551812445 | 4.18510662607516 | 0.385555749895734 |
155 | 101.1 | 101.298074498036 | 0.203505540205202 | -0.0871905559229439 | -0.154120754631267 |
156 | 93.5 | 99.2361822692675 | 0.193585729060965 | -4.70691572114044 | -1.43050719669701 |
157 | 97.9 | 99.895938464765 | 0.195620674653507 | -2.20769422207323 | 0.294303870653094 |
158 | 96.8 | 99.1999145363786 | 0.19168290661731 | -1.99503823478758 | -0.562741970156227 |
159 | 108.4 | 97.5082330440882 | 0.183189027183746 | 11.746611826197 | -1.18828366995495 |
160 | 103.5 | 101.071532816821 | 0.19878407269553 | 0.894751203278038 | 2.13220859446549 |
161 | 101.3 | 102.176187208008 | 0.203036584718845 | -1.28717033368432 | 0.571414230508334 |
162 | 107.4 | 102.831526999623 | 0.205174467273717 | 4.36324766853373 | 0.285350139274139 |
163 | 100.7 | 105.107180421983 | 0.214905015242009 | -5.34690439794431 | 1.30659154612073 |
164 | 91.1 | 103.078438812096 | 0.204542708274263 | -10.9597056666259 | -1.41634095661686 |
165 | 105 | 101.921322276812 | 0.19841268984508 | 3.69719973491047 | -0.859835459878471 |
166 | 112.8 | 103.954557688066 | 0.206442685365654 | 8.01171021947227 | 1.15887557376919 |
167 | 105.6 | 104.543664468027 | 0.208076615588235 | 0.882422082883831 | 0.241714319027632 |
168 | 101 | 105.161711588624 | 0.209800072524884 | -4.34803860029476 | 0.258953148440102 |
169 | 101.9 | 104.795355691634 | 0.207386730426422 | -2.6335373657485 | -0.363867197500443 |
170 | 103.5 | 105.019792912159 | 0.20745870105331 | -1.52753903752396 | 0.0107657747284604 |
171 | 109.5 | 103.374849349773 | 0.199520934625083 | 6.96646334050813 | -1.16936632215391 |
172 | 105 | 103.714252097153 | 0.200130482020772 | 1.22223163174853 | 0.0882907257057529 |
173 | 102.9 | 104.204090118254 | 0.20140927867168 | -1.43562591971922 | 0.182853945289705 |
174 | 108.5 | 104.57192804932 | 0.202147540470071 | 3.85250285613181 | 0.105055556848767 |
175 | 96.9 | 103.429070247946 | 0.196210051834102 | -5.91822030281109 | -0.849188032411619 |
176 | 88.4 | 101.805229172653 | 0.188287415082184 | -12.5783811728454 | -1.14940066259116 |
177 | 112.4 | 104.449489131915 | 0.198761529463936 | 6.83441281785353 | 1.55136184489866 |
178 | 111.3 | 104.640057584495 | 0.198727369896709 | 6.66366665975484 | -0.00517620399940963 |
179 | 101.6 | 103.407211535239 | 0.19287635476444 | -1.15637615823673 | -0.904509152827397 |
180 | 101.2 | 103.886326376324 | 0.194031122401603 | -2.81646198032639 | 0.180850247918929 |
181 | 101.8 | 104.111396968727 | 0.194155859229607 | -2.32550740317061 | 0.0196092179636809 |
182 | 98.8 | 102.563044685463 | 0.187119545555276 | -2.97104937169782 | -1.10066339971886 |
183 | 114.4 | 104.148327460459 | 0.192825716180832 | 9.61631627372659 | 0.88302292399161 |
184 | 104.5 | 104.204313219358 | 0.192260406723556 | 0.357859954894355 | -0.0864139685874386 |
185 | 97.6 | 102.393704301476 | 0.183908148978842 | -3.88375876670447 | -1.26478849312734 |
186 | 109.1 | 102.858299435496 | 0.185082585582036 | 6.11417141786599 | 0.1772646991658 |
187 | 94.5 | 101.98176590272 | 0.180659320646401 | -6.99934606765426 | -0.670554094579905 |
188 | 90.4 | 102.718920519759 | 0.18295167267016 | -12.5718608222556 | 0.351567913480824 |
189 | 111.8 | 103.601287650615 | 0.185785616647446 | 7.88073526726413 | 0.44193751317934 |
190 | 110.5 | 103.639629771208 | 0.185198992815915 | 6.9274162769033 | -0.0931772464340714 |
191 | 106.8 | 105.266372887219 | 0.190842134757919 | 0.878042247630916 | 0.911048466203749 |
192 | 101.8 | 105.29287292079 | 0.190205809630032 | -3.41813140631874 | -0.103862672371354 |
193 | 103.7 | 105.383681117044 | 0.189822479870022 | -1.63847865880718 | -0.0628139813047621 |
194 | 107.4 | 107.440434806712 | 0.197041904643056 | -0.889342517970022 | 1.17967567168544 |
195 | 117.5 | 107.836034556304 | 0.197815349474929 | 9.57369252504822 | 0.125451393912648 |
196 | 109.6 | 108.095663033959 | 0.198058222270485 | 1.47623719613924 | 0.0390516454252608 |
197 | 102.8 | 107.741009727124 | 0.195872035022967 | -4.68976190991594 | -0.349183893581159 |
198 | 115.5 | 108.219806088944 | 0.196993437526892 | 7.15157839203202 | 0.178752656496006 |
199 | 97.8 | 107.372805284438 | 0.192871033548079 | -9.09815411336115 | -0.659675590101097 |
200 | 100.2 | 109.398290273492 | 0.200039806982034 | -10.0316307076006 | 1.15815104009775 |
201 | 112.9 | 108.372105286177 | 0.195306921289666 | 5.08559554272813 | -0.775040413224202 |
202 | 108.7 | 106.286317733125 | 0.186632011133154 | 3.45131165612215 | -1.44192862800765 |
203 | 109 | 106.708735502296 | 0.1875168349996 | 2.18399905441786 | 0.149053680493031 |
204 | 113.9 | 110.715020168135 | 0.201714295391959 | 1.44766632934687 | 2.41406584965594 |
205 | 106.9 | 111.069084377161 | 0.202278445976644 | -4.23839196843193 | 0.0963048941281465 |
206 | 109.6 | 111.051466863603 | 0.201463209693929 | -1.35143937979326 | -0.138992657715077 |
207 | 124.5 | 112.476084926366 | 0.206019673790551 | 11.4675742373923 | 0.773079908836065 |
208 | 104.2 | 109.280319292724 | 0.193271780733973 | -3.53316674800846 | -2.14995622834747 |
209 | 110.8 | 111.049947625124 | 0.199205848777779 | -0.96686501298083 | 0.996268467804138 |
210 | 118.7 | 111.480848231528 | 0.200078969431511 | 7.11377456051321 | 0.14643972745666 |
211 | 102.1 | 111.765236390366 | 0.200395585223634 | -9.70358471884376 | 0.0532912565550294 |
212 | 105.1 | 112.725780680151 | 0.203227982353387 | -7.97158274092068 | 0.480537316471577 |
Structural Time Series Model -- Extrapolation | |||
t | Observed | Level | Seasonal |
1 | 118.310675920972 | 112.870113781579 | 5.44056213939344 |
2 | 115.210997884784 | 113.072712859471 | 2.13828502531303 |
3 | 113.262408262089 | 113.275311937364 | -0.0129036752751472 |
4 | 115.218186339932 | 113.477911015256 | 1.74027532467543 |
5 | 109.551617269423 | 113.680510093149 | -4.12889282372535 |
6 | 112.528304714238 | 113.883109171041 | -1.35480445680244 |
7 | 127.277050661407 | 114.085708248933 | 13.1913424124735 |
8 | 109.462390761299 | 114.288307326826 | -4.82591656552669 |
9 | 113.442401578875 | 114.490906404718 | -1.04850482584333 |
10 | 121.57471100891 | 114.693505482611 | 6.88120552629963 |
11 | 104.724518260831 | 114.896104560503 | -10.1715862996722 |
12 | 107.249641857086 | 115.098703638395 | -7.84906178130983 |