| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.342948541117866 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0.289315778192675 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 76 | 73.4129819354058 | 2.58701806459425 |
| 14 | 75.3 | 73.5900125503236 | 1.70998744967639 |
| 15 | 81.7 | 80.7498171526983 | 0.95018284730169 |
| 16 | 72.5 | 72.1922848495529 | 0.307715150447123 |
| 17 | 77.4 | 77.4598158495794 | -0.0598158495794081 |
| 18 | 81.1 | 81.7110993499235 | -0.611099349923464 |
| 19 | 65.1 | 63.5196566356694 | 1.58034336433055 |
| 20 | 68.7 | 69.2495476352525 | -0.549547635252523 |
| 21 | 75.6 | 81.2236413828328 | -5.62364138283276 |
| 22 | 79.7 | 78.5972140668445 | 1.10278593315552 |
| 23 | 75.3 | 79.5791986012519 | -4.27919860125193 |
| 24 | 67.7 | 71.5361222971439 | -3.83612229714393 |
| 25 | 73.2 | 75.1060371211128 | -1.90603712111279 |
| 26 | 72.2 | 73.5781472081385 | -1.37814720813847 |
| 27 | 79.3 | 79.418905059718 | -0.11890505971796 |
| 28 | 77.5 | 70.5868327565763 | 6.91316724342374 |
| 29 | 75.6 | 78.0897857240387 | -2.48978572403868 |
| 30 | 77.4 | 81.3930263987776 | -3.99302639877754 |
| 31 | 69.2 | 62.7536421830649 | 6.44635781693506 |
| 32 | 67.1 | 69.7895843586161 | -2.68958435861614 |
| 33 | 77.9 | 80.0250804128472 | -2.12508041284718 |
| 34 | 82.7 | 79.880103936168 | 2.81989606383198 |
| 35 | 75.7 | 80.3974416451032 | -4.69744164510318 |
| 36 | 70.1 | 72.1512022317963 | -2.05120223179628 |
| 37 | 76.4 | 76.8368479289754 | -0.436847928975368 |
| 38 | 74.3 | 75.8745773854692 | -1.57457738546924 |
| 39 | 80.5 | 82.1011362084574 | -1.60113620845742 |
| 40 | 78 | 73.8397665219175 | 4.16023347808253 |
| 41 | 73.5 | 78.6468538461779 | -5.14685384617795 |
| 42 | 78.8 | 80.7456375686484 | -1.94563756864837 |
| 43 | 71.2 | 64.5913747525891 | 6.60862524741091 |
| 44 | 66.2 | 69.9680170653597 | -3.7680170653597 |
| 45 | 82.7 | 79.9886146301998 | 2.71138536980015 |
| 46 | 83.8 | 82.4673760153493 | 1.33262398465068 |
| 47 | 75 | 80.9860822264772 | -5.98608222647724 |
| 48 | 80.4 | 72.7117239969568 | 7.68827600304324 |
| 49 | 74.6 | 81.3712059630236 | -6.77120596302362 |
| 50 | 77.7 | 77.9764458481929 | -0.276445848192864 |
| 51 | 89.8 | 84.8861465960752 | 4.91385340392483 |
| 52 | 82.4 | 79.4867800224738 | 2.91321997752617 |
| 53 | 77 | 82.1507729014785 | -5.15077290147853 |
| 54 | 89.6 | 85.1001478379254 | 4.49985216207459 |
| 55 | 75.7 | 71.5092061441068 | 4.19079385589325 |
| 56 | 75.1 | 74.1329943370068 | 0.967005662993202 |
| 57 | 89.9 | 88.1757563075225 | 1.72424369247749 |
| 58 | 88.8 | 90.1418700461386 | -1.34187004613861 |
| 59 | 86.5 | 86.0379558950156 | 0.4620441049844 |
| 60 | 90 | 82.0978889219265 | 7.9021110780735 |
| 61 | 84 | 88.3524532331538 | -4.35245323315375 |
| 62 | 82.7 | 87.0084589918949 | -4.30845899189487 |
| 63 | 91.7 | 94.2628752894886 | -2.56287528948864 |
| 64 | 87.5 | 85.39170555643 | 2.10829444357005 |
| 65 | 82 | 86.214873469498 | -4.21487346949796 |
| 66 | 92.2 | 91.7259261262957 | 0.474073873704342 |
| 67 | 73.1 | 75.904626834376 | -2.80462683437599 |
| 68 | 75.6 | 75.5210230277903 | 0.078976972209702 |
| 69 | 91.6 | 89.5644554557339 | 2.03554454426609 |
| 70 | 87.5 | 91.059701740932 | -3.55970174093201 |
| 71 | 90.1 | 86.5214278424627 | 3.57857215753731 |
| 72 | 91.3 | 84.9655272117343 | 6.33447278826574 |
| 73 | 87.6 | 88.347613073879 | -0.747613073879052 |
| 74 | 88.4 | 88.2309934263981 | 0.169006573601891 |
| 75 | 100.7 | 97.7180116792894 | 2.98198832071058 |
| 76 | 85.3 | 91.1684773182558 | -5.86847731825584 |
| 77 | 92 | 87.9979832501419 | 4.0020167498581 |
| 78 | 96.8 | 97.7039643590493 | -0.903964359049311 |
| 79 | 77.9 | 79.7874969571316 | -1.88749695713155 |
| 80 | 80.9 | 80.3225613789809 | 0.577438621019155 |
| 81 | 95.3 | 95.830527327578 | -0.530527327578 |
| 82 | 99.3 | 95.3417344105032 | 3.95826558949675 |
| 83 | 96.1 | 94.5387680852673 | 1.56123191473269 |
| 84 | 92.5 | 92.5922406530888 | -0.0922406530887514 |
| 85 | 93.7 | 92.4040310174897 | 1.29596898251033 |
| 86 | 92.1 | 93.1647557136789 | -1.06475571367891 |
| 87 | 103.6 | 103.247095933474 | 0.352904066525625 |
| 88 | 92.5 | 93.6976670344256 | -1.19766703442559 |
| 89 | 95.7 | 94.0193907436956 | 1.68060925630439 |
| 90 | 103.4 | 102.34795782955 | 1.05204217045025 |
| 91 | 89 | 83.8944340347688 | 5.10556596523116 |
| 92 | 89.1 | 87.41843957581 | 1.68156042418997 |
| 93 | 98.7 | 104.446796774844 | -5.74679677484413 |
| 94 | 109.4 | 103.029509217236 | 6.37049078276441 |
| 95 | 101.1 | 102.365383951175 | -1.26538395117542 |
| 96 | 95.4 | 98.9239339296888 | -3.52393392968884 |
| 97 | 101.4 | 97.812176433504 | 3.587823566496 |
| 98 | 102.1 | 98.8834027584437 | 3.21659724155629 |
| 99 | 103.6 | 111.534463261115 | -7.93446326111483 |
| 100 | 106 | 98.3147356017413 | 7.68526439825868 |
| 101 | 98.4 | 102.312976793379 | -3.91297679337897 |
| 102 | 106.6 | 109.071003082789 | -2.471003082789 |
| 103 | 95.8 | 89.2144267987888 | 6.58557320121119 |
| 104 | 87.2 | 92.6419747544386 | -5.44197475443855 |
| 105 | 108.5 | 106.204678260247 | 2.29532173975259 |
| 106 | 107 | 109.964030092706 | -2.96403009270622 |
| 107 | 92 | 104.537433328298 | -12.5374333282979 |
| 108 | 94.9 | 96.8457471293794 | -1.94574712937937 |
| 109 | 84.4 | 97.6082602014026 | -13.2082602014026 |
| 110 | 85 | 92.8760167448194 | -7.87601674481942 |
| 111 | 94 | 98.6234231582442 | -4.62342315824421 |
| 112 | 84.5 | 90.2209020321619 | -5.72090203216189 |
| 113 | 88.2 | 87.5624834216448 | 0.637516578355189 |
| 114 | 92.1 | 95.1488792697591 | -3.04887926975908 |
| 115 | 81.1 | 79.0101782411437 | 2.08982175885632 |
| 116 | 81.2 | 78.7821012924681 | 2.4178987075319 |
| 117 | 96.1 | 94.6333470020708 | 1.4666529979292 |
| 118 | 95.3 | 96.9120184092151 | -1.61201840921512 |
| 119 | 92.1 | 90.7601533255132 | 1.33984667448676 |
| 120 | 91.7 | 89.950562473593 | 1.74943752640696 |
| 121 | 90.3 | 89.7776423335504 | 0.522357666449565 |
| 122 | 96.1 | 90.7197325155358 | 5.38026748446423 |
| 123 | 108.7 | 102.001124315287 | 6.69887568471279 |
| 124 | 95.9 | 96.6288622314392 | -0.728862231439152 |
| 125 | 95.1 | 96.9159473030473 | -1.81594730304732 |
| 126 | 109.4 | 103.561423529437 | 5.83857647056278 |
| 127 | 91.2 | 89.5941060486313 | 1.60589395136874 |
| 128 | 91.4 | 89.1159737735677 | 2.28402622643235 |
| 129 | 107.4 | 106.52489123409 | 0.875108765909843 |
| 130 | 105.6 | 108.120809208396 | -2.52080920839614 |
| 131 | 105.3 | 101.597084169147 | 3.70291583085269 |
| 132 | 103.7 | 101.491014589556 | 2.20898541044438 |
| 133 | 99.5 | 101.082812053653 | -1.58281205365333 |
| 134 | 103.2 | 102.368229527157 | 0.831770472842933 |
| 135 | 123.1 | 113.218934978005 | 9.8810650219947 |
| 136 | 102.2 | 106.547729869576 | -4.34772986957616 |
| 137 | 110 | 105.389857835281 | 4.61014216471884 |
| 138 | 106.2 | 116.638777904786 | -10.4387779047862 |
| 139 | 91.3 | 95.2635557224978 | -3.96355572249782 |
| 140 | 99.3 | 92.9565791695644 | 6.3434208304356 |
| 141 | 111.8 | 112.342837719591 | -0.542837719590992 |
| 142 | 104.4 | 112.820189594778 | -8.42018959477755 |
| 143 | 102.4 | 105.306927220557 | -2.90692722055654 |
| 144 | 101 | 102.633102063139 | -1.63310206313891 |
| 145 | 100.6 | 100.197337483832 | 0.402662516168235 |
| 146 | 104.5 | 102.624167262681 | 1.8758327373189 |
| 147 | 117.4 | 115.551458527173 | 1.84854147282711 |
| 148 | 97.4 | 103.662290254416 | -6.26229025441604 |
| 149 | 99.5 | 103.49219478129 | -3.99219478128956 |
| 150 | 106.4 | 108.52493454421 | -2.1249345442103 |
| 151 | 95.2 | 91.7174572034555 | 3.48254279654455 |
| 152 | 94 | 93.8939585387892 | 0.106041461210793 |
| 153 | 104.1 | 109.44176169872 | -5.34176169871992 |
| 154 | 105.8 | 106.779971092101 | -0.979971092101437 |
| 155 | 101.1 | 102.928354767039 | -1.82835476703926 |
| 156 | 93.5 | 100.888853051062 | -7.3888530510623 |
| 157 | 97.9 | 96.9248721998202 | 0.975127800179834 |
| 158 | 96.8 | 99.7538685342158 | -2.95386853421577 |
| 159 | 108.4 | 110.453577984538 | -2.05357798453802 |
| 160 | 103.5 | 96.4954338255614 | 7.00456617443862 |
| 161 | 101.3 | 101.26632752115 | 0.0336724788502067 |
| 162 | 107.4 | 108.02645653717 | -0.626456537170299 |
| 163 | 100.7 | 92.7306928401823 | 7.96930715981769 |
| 164 | 91.1 | 95.805883278842 | -4.70588327884201 |
| 165 | 105 | 108.686984847728 | -3.68698484772801 |
| 166 | 112.8 | 107.419026755876 | 5.38097324412362 |
| 167 | 105.6 | 105.473562507706 | 0.12643749229413 |
| 168 | 101 | 102.914280761427 | -1.91428076142725 |
| 169 | 101.9 | 102.411143169455 | -0.511143169455451 |
| 170 | 103.5 | 104.050033308119 | -0.550033308118913 |
| 171 | 109.5 | 116.412772371149 | -6.91277237114866 |
| 172 | 105 | 101.970890236687 | 3.0291097633132 |
| 173 | 102.9 | 104.074629525596 | -1.17462952559609 |
| 174 | 108.5 | 110.443910591958 | -1.94391059195767 |
| 175 | 96.9 | 96.0209146539385 | 0.879085346061544 |
| 176 | 88.4 | 94.2554713961649 | -5.85547139616487 |
| 177 | 112.4 | 106.765744763069 | 5.63425523693101 |
| 178 | 111.3 | 110.427167835707 | 0.872832164293371 |
| 179 | 101.6 | 105.916596821532 | -4.31659682153187 |
| 180 | 101.2 | 101.4774458516 | -0.277445851600461 |
| 181 | 101.8 | 101.801459583266 | -0.00145958326618256 |
| 182 | 98.8 | 103.602488561027 | -4.80248856102689 |
| 183 | 114.4 | 113.078800705855 | 1.32119929414532 |
| 184 | 104.5 | 103.270246894315 | 1.22975310568542 |
| 185 | 97.6 | 103.956912108662 | -6.3569121086622 |
| 186 | 109.1 | 108.298104171 | 0.80189582900033 |
| 187 | 94.5 | 95.4556817572304 | -0.95568175723038 |
| 188 | 90.4 | 91.8075940375615 | -1.40759403756149 |
| 189 | 111.8 | 108.042655856673 | 3.75734414332724 |
| 190 | 110.5 | 110.152693792455 | 0.347306207544804 |
| 191 | 106.8 | 104.49781601974 | 2.30218398026012 |
| 192 | 101.8 | 103.056674829439 | -1.25667482943891 |
| 193 | 103.7 | 103.099930187539 | 0.600069812461314 |
| 194 | 107.4 | 104.188787589137 | 3.21121241086323 |
| 195 | 117.5 | 118.080268516156 | -0.580268516156451 |
| 196 | 109.6 | 107.221153833821 | 2.37884616617872 |
| 197 | 102.8 | 106.775553788888 | -3.97555378888765 |
| 198 | 115.5 | 113.659535845439 | 1.84046415456102 |
| 199 | 97.8 | 100.137017859558 | -2.33701785955806 |
| 200 | 100.2 | 95.7590750037532 | 4.44092499624681 |
| 201 | 112.9 | 116.162827715567 | -3.26282771556656 |
| 202 | 108.7 | 115.211689487027 | -6.51168948702747 |
| 203 | 109 | 107.436901160974 | 1.56309883902586 |
| 204 | 113.9 | 104.997254022235 | 8.90274597776462 |
| 205 | 106.9 | 108.908295407374 | -2.00829540737357 |
| 206 | 109.6 | 109.643732382542 | -0.0437323825424869 |
| 207 | 124.5 | 122.112292870312 | 2.38770712968804 |
| 208 | 104.2 | 112.375515780852 | -8.17551578085225 |
| 209 | 110.8 | 107.065184837798 | 3.73481516220158 |
| 210 | 118.7 | 118.016498082023 | 0.683501917977253 |
| 211 | 102.1 | 102.820688141429 | -0.720688141428923 |
| 212 | 105.1 | 100.177455807331 | 4.92254419266933 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 213 | 119.92835132964 | 115.74443643031 | 124.11226622897 |
| 214 | 119.417513291216 | 114.452128640853 | 124.382897941579 |
| 215 | 115.115076581231 | 109.563650830663 | 120.666502331799 |
| 216 | 113.366693114883 | 107.255287258332 | 119.478098971434 |
| 217 | 112.09890657572 | 105.475727121122 | 118.722086030319 |
| 218 | 113.95685201517 | 106.74085540198 | 121.17284862836 |
| 219 | 127.399621109086 | 119.062056448292 | 135.737185769879 |
| 220 | 114.377302032389 | 106.31254967803 | 122.442054386747 |
| 221 | 114.095811943033 | 105.624711726487 | 122.566912159579 |
| 222 | 123.592594204435 | 114.141156231214 | 133.044032177656 |
| 223 | 107.192929660268 | 98.4348240805412 | 115.951035239994 |
| 224 | 105.780408288035 | 90.0579492199771 | 121.502867356093 |
