| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.505934050421326 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0.614753194631182 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 66 | 67.2389179765938 | -1.23891797659384 |
| 14 | 68 | 68.2527425199986 | -0.252742519998606 |
| 15 | 58 | 57.9720339785524 | 0.0279660214475825 |
| 16 | 64 | 63.795732115582 | 0.20426788441803 |
| 17 | 66 | 66.1661262284274 | -0.166126228427359 |
| 18 | 57 | 57.7548264944109 | -0.754826494410914 |
| 19 | 68 | 63.1330139536261 | 4.86698604637386 |
| 20 | 62 | 59.6309097595421 | 2.36909024045787 |
| 21 | 59 | 63.5944944682933 | -4.59449446829334 |
| 22 | 73 | 69.8154147841645 | 3.18458521583551 |
| 23 | 61 | 75.8889289454327 | -14.8889289454327 |
| 24 | 61 | 63.5808287567839 | -2.58082875678387 |
| 25 | 57 | 59.3489698748122 | -2.34896987481224 |
| 26 | 58 | 59.8501483184963 | -1.85014831849634 |
| 27 | 57 | 50.1848146097889 | 6.81518539021107 |
| 28 | 67 | 59.0468144378943 | 7.9531855621057 |
| 29 | 81 | 65.1935430285262 | 15.8064569714738 |
| 30 | 79 | 63.7711309578603 | 15.2288690421397 |
| 31 | 76 | 80.7745805556953 | -4.77458055569528 |
| 32 | 78 | 70.5046751848618 | 7.49532481513823 |
| 33 | 74 | 75.03816745881 | -1.03816745880998 |
| 34 | 67 | 88.0897478063629 | -21.0897478063629 |
| 35 | 84 | 75.7964154725171 | 8.20358452748295 |
| 36 | 85 | 78.6564536839121 | 6.34354631608788 |
| 37 | 79 | 78.0807212100013 | 0.919278789998728 |
| 38 | 82 | 81.0923706818125 | 0.907629318187517 |
| 39 | 87 | 72.8842183589873 | 14.1157816410127 |
| 40 | 90 | 88.1277025949084 | 1.87229740509156 |
| 41 | 87 | 94.5362009609565 | -7.53620096095655 |
| 42 | 93 | 78.9990239672235 | 14.0009760327765 |
| 43 | 92 | 89.6918969853441 | 2.3081030146559 |
| 44 | 82 | 85.8645734379066 | -3.8645734379066 |
| 45 | 80 | 81.8886566908577 | -1.8886566908577 |
| 46 | 79 | 88.1462219908835 | -9.14622199088346 |
| 47 | 77 | 91.9425284422926 | -14.9425284422926 |
| 48 | 72 | 82.4089048579976 | -10.4089048579976 |
| 49 | 65 | 72.1309553167814 | -7.13095531678141 |
| 50 | 73 | 70.7176701219875 | 2.2823298780125 |
| 51 | 76 | 67.4340974259656 | 8.5659025740344 |
| 52 | 77 | 75.4769942621307 | 1.52300573786933 |
| 53 | 76 | 78.3629995362129 | -2.36299953621294 |
| 54 | 76 | 72.325754608886 | 3.67424539111398 |
| 55 | 76 | 74.2053817836267 | 1.79461821637331 |
| 56 | 75 | 69.4370271459748 | 5.56297285402519 |
| 57 | 78 | 70.9925387331572 | 7.00746126684277 |
| 58 | 73 | 79.0333963234137 | -6.03339632341368 |
| 59 | 80 | 81.8619524077274 | -1.86195240772744 |
| 60 | 77 | 80.0979717167554 | -3.09797171675537 |
| 61 | 83 | 74.1529908450746 | 8.84700915492542 |
| 62 | 84 | 84.6251215250304 | -0.625121525030352 |
| 63 | 85 | 81.2049982503102 | 3.79500174968983 |
| 64 | 81 | 84.8878921135592 | -3.88789211355918 |
| 65 | 84 | 83.929001675729 | 0.0709983242709598 |
| 66 | 83 | 80.6412831540019 | 2.35871684599815 |
| 67 | 83 | 81.2390254220132 | 1.76097457798677 |
| 68 | 88 | 77.1479223674637 | 10.8520776325363 |
| 69 | 92 | 81.6204415280249 | 10.3795584719751 |
| 70 | 92 | 87.4078617237811 | 4.59213827621886 |
| 71 | 89 | 98.3970977767093 | -9.39709777670926 |
| 72 | 82 | 92.243856556926 | -10.243856556926 |
| 73 | 73 | 86.0618209137261 | -13.0618209137261 |
| 74 | 81 | 82.4978113431156 | -1.49781134311557 |
| 75 | 91 | 79.9994607279113 | 11.0005392720887 |
| 76 | 80 | 84.958908755379 | -4.95890875537904 |
| 77 | 81 | 84.6807684395279 | -3.6807684395279 |
| 78 | 82 | 80.2144615805183 | 1.78553841948165 |
| 79 | 84 | 80.3465433993808 | 3.65345660061922 |
| 80 | 87 | 79.7684101385132 | 7.2315898614868 |
| 81 | 85 | 82.1114856012783 | 2.8885143987217 |
| 82 | 74 | 82.3977034179631 | -8.3977034179631 |
| 83 | 81 | 81.797201665542 | -0.797201665542019 |
| 84 | 82 | 79.7320134428357 | 2.26798655716431 |
| 85 | 86 | 78.7703845655648 | 7.22961543443519 |
| 86 | 85 | 89.5936325680611 | -4.5936325680611 |
| 87 | 82 | 89.2516734130156 | -7.25167341301558 |
| 88 | 86 | 80.2850194925141 | 5.71498050748593 |
| 89 | 88 | 85.8448860899663 | 2.15511391003373 |
| 90 | 86 | 85.9316816622116 | 0.068318337788412 |
| 91 | 83 | 85.7311588666812 | -2.73115886668124 |
| 92 | 81 | 82.8966530067351 | -1.89665300673508 |
| 93 | 81 | 79.3964966441733 | 1.60350335582667 |
| 94 | 81 | 75.6991225765346 | 5.30087742346538 |
| 95 | 82 | 84.5596984497991 | -2.55969844979909 |
| 96 | 86 | 82.5075393990157 | 3.49246060098432 |
| 97 | 85 | 83.5553063749967 | 1.44469362500331 |
| 98 | 87 | 87.8089885900377 | -0.808988590037657 |
| 99 | 89 | 88.501266756115 | 0.498733243885027 |
| 100 | 90 | 87.2494968874874 | 2.75050311251256 |
| 101 | 90 | 90.2944232567848 | -0.294423256784796 |
| 102 | 92 | 88.4635706370407 | 3.53642936295925 |
| 103 | 86 | 89.1047710797122 | -3.10477107971217 |
| 104 | 86 | 86.2752326742259 | -0.275232674225919 |
| 105 | 82 | 84.5728653877551 | -2.57286538775514 |
| 106 | 80 | 79.7238584074163 | 0.276141592583656 |
| 107 | 79 | 83.6364813630005 | -4.63648136300048 |
| 108 | 77 | 82.332637895583 | -5.33263789558303 |
| 109 | 79 | 78.3723739156742 | 0.62762608432584 |
| 110 | 76 | 81.316991480479 | -5.31699148047899 |
| 111 | 78 | 79.9675877692197 | -1.96758776921966 |
| 112 | 78 | 78.219364428558 | -0.219364428558023 |
| 113 | 77 | 78.7297866044766 | -1.72978660447663 |
| 114 | 72 | 77.3727837656932 | -5.37278376569316 |
| 115 | 75 | 72.0334321388294 | 2.96656786117056 |
| 116 | 79 | 73.1786864588891 | 5.82131354111088 |
| 117 | 81 | 74.1007294847847 | 6.89927051521533 |
| 118 | 86 | 75.062343305959 | 10.937656694041 |
| 119 | 88 | 82.8552827260769 | 5.14471727392308 |
| 120 | 97 | 86.2953665328079 | 10.7046334671921 |
| 121 | 94 | 92.3734469211626 | 1.62655307883739 |
| 122 | 96 | 94.1215188201178 | 1.87848117988216 |
| 123 | 94 | 97.9999125592402 | -3.99991255924019 |
| 124 | 91 | 95.7297739373148 | -4.72977393731477 |
| 125 | 92 | 93.546386066011 | -1.54638606601104 |
| 126 | 93 | 90.8094484069264 | 2.19055159307358 |
| 127 | 93 | 91.8121855141492 | 1.18781448585079 |
| 128 | 87 | 92.990069475066 | -5.99006947506601 |
| 129 | 84 | 87.9090296803863 | -3.90902968038627 |
| 130 | 80 | 84.289289039946 | -4.28928903994597 |
| 131 | 78 | 82.5593209627758 | -4.55932096277581 |
| 132 | 75 | 82.3963697708013 | -7.39636977080134 |
| 133 | 73 | 76.8968132897923 | -3.89681328979231 |
| 134 | 81 | 75.6997850465144 | 5.30021495348564 |
| 135 | 76 | 79.2766584270916 | -3.27665842709159 |
| 136 | 77 | 77.1852554915098 | -0.185255491509764 |
| 137 | 71 | 78.0570023807069 | -7.05700238070689 |
| 138 | 71 | 73.7972418651419 | -2.79724186514194 |
| 139 | 78 | 72.0353550727218 | 5.96464492727819 |
| 140 | 67 | 73.6856730833396 | -6.68567308333959 |
| 141 | 76 | 69.1282716950636 | 6.8717283049364 |
| 142 | 68 | 71.0545603628094 | -3.05456036280943 |
| 143 | 82 | 69.7681141266635 | 12.2318858733365 |
| 144 | 64 | 77.0844833197049 | -13.0844833197049 |
| 145 | 71 | 69.7870341362473 | 1.21296586375266 |
| 146 | 81 | 73.7493149609254 | 7.25068503907464 |
| 147 | 69 | 75.7388599291611 | -6.73885992916109 |
| 148 | 63 | 72.8001770128146 | -9.80017701281457 |
| 149 | 70 | 66.7506349160118 | 3.24936508398818 |
| 150 | 77 | 68.9443261898357 | 8.05567381016431 |
| 151 | 75 | 75.3106743313491 | -0.310674331349091 |
| 152 | 76 | 69.9619276538012 | 6.03807234619879 |
| 153 | 68 | 76.0649700505324 | -8.06497005053239 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 154 | 67.5612107900943 | 57.5146827521437 | 77.6077388280447 |
| 155 | 72.0903423610247 | 60.0096710477358 | 84.1710136743136 |
| 156 | 65.8057703955315 | 52.7102376725821 | 78.901303118481 |
| 157 | 69.4287275128268 | 54.4713098159129 | 84.3861452097407 |
| 158 | 74.4084421663904 | 57.4433611569608 | 91.37352317582 |
| 159 | 68.7714552254791 | 51.6006547103312 | 85.942255740627 |
| 160 | 68.1071112951749 | 49.928222750939 | 86.2859998394109 |
| 161 | 71.1034944089721 | 51.2293827706082 | 90.9776060473359 |
| 162 | 73.0257766663798 | 51.7241110033786 | 94.327442329381 |
| 163 | 72.7796218012942 | 50.6042324906293 | 94.955011111959 |
| 164 | 69.5377590558366 | 47.2911299652706 | 91.7843881464026 |
| 165 | 68.2535472200603 | -25.0929924281482 | 161.600086868269 |
