| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.0041715932597097 |
| beta | 0.464506342250138 |
| gamma | 0.154038316998336 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 2933 | 2914.91834689335 | 18.0816531066539 |
| 14 | 2889 | 2872.58574674089 | 16.4142532591113 |
| 15 | 2938 | 2927.53972158839 | 10.4602784116091 |
| 16 | 2497 | 2508.18254092205 | -11.182540922046 |
| 17 | 1870 | 1890.78919838221 | -20.7891983822105 |
| 18 | 1726 | 1736.02025923863 | -10.0202592386347 |
| 19 | 1607 | 1718.67191402893 | -111.671914028932 |
| 20 | 1545 | 1512.49238661245 | 32.5076133875457 |
| 21 | 1396 | 1564.79342809842 | -168.793428098423 |
| 22 | 1787 | 2022.45830382237 | -235.458303822372 |
| 23 | 2076 | 2147.44038245984 | -71.4403824598407 |
| 24 | 2837 | 2451.4073439586 | 385.592656041404 |
| 25 | 2787 | 2864.51905974239 | -77.5190597423875 |
| 26 | 3891 | 2821.23456502513 | 1069.76543497487 |
| 27 | 3179 | 2879.72537535363 | 299.27462464637 |
| 28 | 2011 | 2466.53692218686 | -455.536922186855 |
| 29 | 1636 | 1856.48211937403 | -220.482119374035 |
| 30 | 1580 | 1705.08697323922 | -125.086973239217 |
| 31 | 1489 | 1671.97292262546 | -182.972922625461 |
| 32 | 1300 | 1490.47841151884 | -190.478411518841 |
| 33 | 1356 | 1509.76497392601 | -153.764973926008 |
| 34 | 1653 | 1947.76244673934 | -294.76244673934 |
| 35 | 2013 | 2093.45974688607 | -80.4597468860661 |
| 36 | 2823 | 2458.42381854697 | 364.576181453026 |
| 37 | 3102 | 2791.58562826597 | 310.414371734026 |
| 38 | 2294 | 2921.83790745205 | -627.837907452052 |
| 39 | 2385 | 2852.22595677244 | -467.225956772444 |
| 40 | 2444 | 2329.11704254828 | 114.882957451723 |
| 41 | 1748 | 1770.22388665529 | -22.2238866552905 |
| 42 | 1554 | 1635.8494053106 | -81.8494053105956 |
| 43 | 1498 | 1593.0909729481 | -95.0909729481 |
| 44 | 1361 | 1414.59114744148 | -53.5911474414827 |
| 45 | 1346 | 1437.68361173733 | -91.683611737333 |
| 46 | 1564 | 1838.85435660062 | -274.854356600617 |
| 47 | 1640 | 2009.42040154301 | -369.420401543009 |
| 48 | 2293 | 2423.01813634408 | -130.018136344077 |
| 49 | 2815 | 2729.07418545519 | 85.9258145448111 |
| 50 | 3137 | 2709.84065815913 | 427.159341840867 |
| 51 | 2679 | 2667.75788725658 | 11.2421127434181 |
| 52 | 1969 | 2251.23702623999 | -282.237026239991 |
| 53 | 1870 | 1691.64944652884 | 178.350553471156 |
| 54 | 1633 | 1553.47934769078 | 79.5206523092224 |
| 55 | 1529 | 1510.06758069118 | 18.9324193088191 |
| 56 | 1366 | 1344.93146770425 | 21.0685322957527 |
| 57 | 1357 | 1360.98303141691 | -3.98303141691349 |
| 58 | 1570 | 1717.3140794361 | -147.314079436101 |
| 59 | 1535 | 1866.38083400405 | -331.380834004046 |
| 60 | 2491 | 2296.19924002635 | 194.800759973647 |
| 61 | 3084 | 2621.72927128874 | 462.270728711258 |
| 62 | 2605 | 2655.6163506714 | -50.6163506713951 |
| 63 | 2573 | 2552.22378225409 | 20.7762177459103 |
| 64 | 2143 | 2110.79005350307 | 32.2099464969306 |
| 65 | 1693 | 1644.65025011216 | 48.3497498878448 |
| 66 | 1504 | 1497.54837952155 | 6.45162047845224 |
| 67 | 1461 | 1446.78355061986 | 14.2164493801411 |
| 68 | 1354 | 1289.09902719273 | 64.9009728072683 |
| 69 | 1333 | 1300.97719783453 | 32.022802165473 |
| 70 | 1492 | 1621.01006721921 | -129.010067219215 |
| 71 | 1781 | 1736.74081096745 | 44.2591890325455 |
| 72 | 1915 | 2228.09945837313 | -313.099458373127 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 2576.85775766328 | 2498.0262737928 | 2655.68924153376 |
| 74 | 2531.4077975411 | 2452.51869401098 | 2610.29690107122 |
| 75 | 2442.565147935 | 2363.58433774372 | 2521.54595812628 |
| 76 | 2021.6484928828 | 1942.6099450347 | 2100.68704073089 |
| 77 | 1577.99500138457 | 1498.93346602196 | 1657.05653674717 |
| 78 | 1430.62966866002 | 1351.46952351415 | 1509.78981380588 |
| 79 | 1382.73466063181 | 1303.40368402148 | 1462.06563724214 |
| 80 | 1239.11018156969 | 1159.66358191791 | 1318.55678122146 |
| 81 | 1244.7262051247 | 1164.97804385574 | 1324.47436639366 |
| 82 | 1525.1946853627 | 1444.41956314802 | 1605.96980757738 |
| 83 | 1660.61187364245 | 1578.66841504486 | 1742.55533224004 |
| 84 | 2075.16892128545 | 2040.7529759085 | 2109.5848666624 |
