Structural Time Series Model -- Interpolation | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 62.4 | 62.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 67.4 | 64.518804146121 | 0.10764512758093 | 1.76071297892783 | 1.34957473048385 |
3 | 76.1 | 70.2437428651095 | 0.533294777515354 | 3.82131611426515 | 2.86745231321527 |
4 | 67.4 | 69.9786579641893 | 0.483563466795467 | -2.22954147860853 | -0.474095964500766 |
5 | 74.5 | 71.6899730664186 | 0.539940908273427 | 2.19802474837004 | 0.800798309637624 |
6 | 72.6 | 72.383153248592 | 0.545264657846996 | 0.136085085742838 | 0.103827028576426 |
7 | 60.5 | 68.1474243150842 | 0.408660619043354 | -5.07212826752895 | -3.28600874429767 |
8 | 66.1 | 66.5930641227722 | 0.358666232181082 | 0.573396741277809 | -1.35648393312567 |
9 | 76.5 | 69.9744963032762 | 0.430934822362301 | 4.87768432892798 | 2.09310842390232 |
10 | 76.8 | 73.1866986109736 | 0.494995506998684 | 2.09488821701476 | 1.92752301262014 |
11 | 77 | 75.2570236205147 | 0.530332750223749 | 0.882253593004025 | 1.09224251400385 |
12 | 71 | 74.1241996323634 | 0.493856436164614 | -2.21496107614425 | -1.15350719188776 |
13 | 74.8 | 75.8657141217498 | 0.435955476849507 | -1.80443736008554 | 1.00488306129565 |
14 | 73.7 | 76.1904046482957 | 0.435380504639506 | -2.43298512661627 | -0.0770069293130004 |
15 | 80.5 | 76.5977696248583 | 0.434557852995893 | 3.91479956483358 | -0.0174890591972293 |
16 | 71.8 | 76.1659828833787 | 0.405525243117624 | -3.97539821558676 | -0.54911382232131 |
17 | 76.9 | 75.5622189788968 | 0.375410363803342 | 1.81552472734938 | -0.666331307814582 |
18 | 79.9 | 76.1388878224882 | 0.380362017957636 | 3.66224845750687 | 0.136648957352417 |
19 | 65.9 | 74.4290225895969 | 0.337761858547829 | -7.48120557484744 | -1.43987400604936 |
20 | 69.5 | 73.06878569073 | 0.307788582382468 | -2.70915073314942 | -1.17755613350505 |
21 | 75.1 | 72.5635049476294 | 0.294771991621107 | 2.95004410935037 | -0.565547579506228 |
22 | 79.6 | 74.5467605190226 | 0.319526825065657 | 4.19222936755979 | 1.17599365291683 |
23 | 75.2 | 74.8051011557424 | 0.318771086104337 | 0.426183415705231 | -0.0426461581899779 |
24 | 68 | 73.6843908725953 | 0.309021112396662 | -4.94355100407769 | -1.00690489467852 |
25 | 72.8 | 73.7784628737249 | 0.310482231344956 | -0.864739045807529 | -0.15517626319764 |
26 | 71.5 | 73.8327938097173 | 0.309316004693337 | -2.20252146732126 | -0.178135840059902 |
27 | 78.5 | 73.9857677652983 | 0.306732451252348 | 4.5890906601713 | -0.103773632306846 |
28 | 76.8 | 76.3266620465438 | 0.350992001352229 | -0.4836293945572 | 1.33940203819129 |
29 | 75.3 | 75.7777747276901 | 0.331213635543792 | -0.0481718557406019 | -0.601650544184528 |
30 | 76.7 | 74.3946600193916 | 0.297126746480773 | 3.14119601534111 | -1.16655189529446 |
31 | 69.7 | 74.9007801069403 | 0.300740867697842 | -5.3043302699003 | 0.143982191937391 |
32 | 67.8 | 73.5950375437438 | 0.276644402431234 | -4.99109414956938 | -1.11469336274596 |
33 | 77.5 | 74.1108490541482 | 0.279766297911855 | 3.26877136727426 | 0.166562877649655 |
34 | 82.5 | 75.6218376855454 | 0.293397261791597 | 6.25628812216873 | 0.858884706618246 |
35 | 75.3 | 75.4772486948682 | 0.28967948202771 | 0.0446117260812422 | -0.305839567101899 |
36 | 70.9 | 75.6737935404021 | 0.289217301538745 | -4.72641299003081 | -0.0652121414840997 |
37 | 76 | 76.2309685978562 | 0.289663055110306 | -0.368129008471684 | 0.188678065958594 |
38 | 73.7 | 76.4449692741384 | 0.289228887629485 | -2.70689971046456 | -0.0524685361935536 |
39 | 79.7 | 76.4482679191602 | 0.285868869805141 | 3.3915883479174 | -0.193967299816681 |
40 | 77.8 | 76.9051903226694 | 0.288547182318499 | 0.812340302933536 | 0.115062086321565 |
41 | 73.3 | 75.5384916231394 | 0.26061367398729 | -1.43796281534173 | -1.11933589210672 |
42 | 78.3 | 75.2440259880082 | 0.251595202527897 | 3.32745661414915 | -0.379255222103085 |
43 | 71.9 | 75.7120949122381 | 0.254784273898869 | -3.91918157581477 | 0.149279710171347 |
44 | 67 | 74.7888096691916 | 0.239538349906276 | -7.20103979407161 | -0.817537262329201 |
45 | 82 | 76.2880199494743 | 0.253515863963781 | 5.07997661370802 | 0.877328957709347 |
46 | 83.7 | 76.9762265694271 | 0.257499699883138 | 6.50491380497773 | 0.303291332222188 |
47 | 74.8 | 76.4838438377203 | 0.252183306022689 | -1.30535688009701 | -0.523739101032286 |
48 | 80 | 79.335097250288 | 0.26548399202808 | -0.649662458859988 | 1.81723265811033 |
49 | 74.3 | 78.3368509246699 | 0.260106233512597 | -3.39774746224237 | -0.883169812971637 |
50 | 76.8 | 78.5981422016982 | 0.260113661411955 | -1.79873574566669 | 0.000821276078078852 |
51 | 89 | 81.0490933522114 | 0.281059200156878 | 6.86982623090836 | 1.50090173373657 |
52 | 81.9 | 81.247393692306 | 0.280048647164376 | 0.693052728049707 | -0.0563570819807207 |
53 | 76.8 | 80.2827814470153 | 0.26329785938711 | -2.87467988120214 | -0.848987829104983 |
54 | 88.9 | 82.0356799061395 | 0.283295183462975 | 6.13222636328948 | 1.02213213914211 |
55 | 75.8 | 81.5508388809392 | 0.273659666768022 | -5.37042241027545 | -0.530507711706469 |
56 | 75.5 | 82.2626404640714 | 0.278572851750818 | -6.98107583541151 | 0.304126806701984 |
57 | 89.1 | 83.1922211834628 | 0.284874473680517 | 5.581658749696 | 0.453322121686659 |
58 | 88 | 82.9393152596061 | 0.280531502089744 | 5.33093045397508 | -0.37512139012991 |
59 | 85.9 | 84.9015493604032 | 0.291539218390657 | 0.15170114404967 | 1.17405688266091 |
60 | 89.3 | 86.8962681497044 | 0.300733434899845 | 1.54544607400457 | 1.18924028860878 |
61 | 82.9 | 87.3629710579526 | 0.301593276575786 | -4.5464780331221 | 0.115693976055738 |
62 | 81.2 | 86.5383276709601 | 0.294428048784058 | -4.77513463851948 | -0.78097394393445 |
63 | 90.5 | 85.489264955422 | 0.283257608039975 | 5.67679380863308 | -0.925457903089415 |
64 | 86.4 | 85.3757749651413 | 0.279256248181216 | 1.21969710587668 | -0.272213127104196 |
65 | 81.8 | 85.4959937117835 | 0.277490063659451 | -3.6177247061481 | -0.10915833862341 |
66 | 91.3 | 85.4383010514215 | 0.273711355944039 | 6.02718151525494 | -0.230860736901509 |
67 | 73.4 | 83.4564642071717 | 0.249448400577422 | -8.9372415766088 | -1.56040441623844 |
68 | 76.6 | 83.4505781566319 | 0.246947114876048 | -6.72325247590971 | -0.177316095103249 |
69 | 91 | 84.3067748069973 | 0.252189515962349 | 6.38823946086519 | 0.424204245246126 |
70 | 87 | 84.1363682814408 | 0.249078547079413 | 3.07573711777083 | -0.294690612928257 |
71 | 89.7 | 86.3398936868536 | 0.261307604062633 | 2.3776616984733 | 1.36382447205393 |
72 | 90.7 | 87.6780151557663 | 0.267274656436128 | 2.48055027982367 | 0.75125515901189 |
73 | 86.5 | 88.8285572415511 | 0.272130154773993 | -2.77195352752609 | 0.615214949779784 |
74 | 86.6 | 89.7102586639508 | 0.275937884513795 | -3.41500723896816 | 0.423108868321173 |
75 | 98.8 | 91.0292334796768 | 0.283732390662901 | 7.25209173892821 | 0.721029716068235 |
76 | 84.4 | 88.6095191939714 | 0.260310489476756 | -2.87062167527439 | -1.86395216588945 |
77 | 91.4 | 90.2654614601585 | 0.273477511252274 | 0.444098282920102 | 0.962207427197681 |
78 | 95.7 | 90.0322130490402 | 0.268591613364313 | 5.91891235346922 | -0.350085209525213 |
79 | 78.5 | 89.263090419569 | 0.258906412495583 | -10.2471001567013 | -0.719071019756237 |
80 | 81.7 | 89.1424150971234 | 0.255623538996014 | -7.25299726117438 | -0.263764402451369 |
81 | 94.3 | 88.9502137474559 | 0.252150428752048 | 5.57392920286235 | -0.311834531443212 |
82 | 98.5 | 91.7128672896231 | 0.269279059663473 | 5.5279296055401 | 1.75036889576981 |
83 | 95.4 | 93.0456547173556 | 0.275688039598144 | 1.82029714661077 | 0.741887339924237 |
84 | 91.7 | 92.3521547063289 | 0.270309171757847 | -0.165439399075061 | -0.675897739186821 |
85 | 92.8 | 93.5861929863896 | 0.275653576475726 | -1.26951867606744 | 0.671199041846797 |
86 | 90.5 | 94.0650459103452 | 0.276880195062729 | -3.66666822991434 | 0.141187021326462 |
87 | 102.2 | 94.1343975339096 | 0.275461478266638 | 8.16903151201456 | -0.143816596646922 |
88 | 91.8 | 94.6621794515178 | 0.277390623214084 | -2.9875934561178 | 0.174553046656869 |
89 | 95 | 94.6664488467397 | 0.275148681288419 | 0.469183715256821 | -0.188913155943615 |
90 | 102 | 95.0696715685273 | 0.276224057656863 | 6.86666281914629 | 0.0886996494047531 |
91 | 88.9 | 96.6241159487163 | 0.286714251509106 | -8.36092723111634 | 0.887036908843781 |
92 | 89.6 | 97.2329760553947 | 0.289201666108157 | -7.79388124699824 | 0.22401245088499 |
93 | 97.9 | 96.384276057633 | 0.281163688287973 | 2.08537497031052 | -0.792543985210655 |
94 | 108.6 | 98.7912139820478 | 0.29471429046109 | 8.74282827464823 | 1.48211242291664 |
95 | 100.8 | 99.2925382939983 | 0.295911982101015 | 1.40376584876043 | 0.144109917391463 |
96 | 95.1 | 98.3776725077471 | 0.289297101951921 | -2.66999320821392 | -0.844295311127508 |
97 | 101 | 99.7112775971816 | 0.295000558734348 | 0.765125244316309 | 0.727483669867812 |
98 | 100.9 | 101.693277513781 | 0.304763434238375 | -1.63747187103389 | 1.17328803265674 |
99 | 102.5 | 99.7498948267385 | 0.290553267445137 | 3.87251560278679 | -1.56083665564472 |
100 | 105.4 | 102.486662302928 | 0.307374006808246 | 1.69425773837637 | 1.69635649974314 |
101 | 98.4 | 101.687514516106 | 0.299317446863001 | -2.73644571949378 | -0.767203862570036 |
102 | 105.3 | 100.876560779892 | 0.291064968409078 | 4.97670323013868 | -0.770423339125842 |
103 | 96.5 | 102.266475839569 | 0.299100448803421 | -6.31486479193386 | 0.763547410031132 |
104 | 88.1 | 100.446929722407 | 0.284338097005688 | -11.2876661385587 | -1.47432922597825 |
105 | 107.9 | 102.498674053298 | 0.295804359322641 | 4.5161693503819 | 1.23141169887439 |
106 | 107 | 101.55410479523 | 0.28838569495326 | 6.06789387095339 | -0.864907965598831 |
107 | 92.5 | 97.9178850115819 | 0.266568169656896 | -3.44849812496889 | -2.73750154059355 |
108 | 95.7 | 97.882498565914 | 0.264962664495052 | -2.03097697289261 | -0.210577982695515 |
109 | 85.2 | 93.6940771379974 | 0.2413190748795 | -6.26100806633844 | -3.10344383111427 |
110 | 85.5 | 90.6109083863972 | 0.222949415307004 | -3.44614378498267 | -2.31413942080495 |
111 | 94.7 | 90.6239948144201 | 0.221714051027664 | 4.18093163975595 | -0.145911162926784 |
112 | 86.2 | 88.3728345998871 | 0.206208490789743 | -0.93799187452977 | -1.71793167327329 |
113 | 88.8 | 88.9716164924048 | 0.208783297355464 | -0.367553221674919 | 0.272686315514723 |
114 | 93.4 | 89.0506142101436 | 0.20791701517084 | 4.4141864310621 | -0.0901976991316369 |
115 | 83.4 | 89.0157832377583 | 0.206315930435535 | -5.49445830841137 | -0.168863839598194 |
116 | 82.9 | 90.9363098086036 | 0.217200229089812 | -8.89419274338449 | 1.19373059401953 |
117 | 96.7 | 91.1454325452372 | 0.217151768966344 | 5.55861497347593 | -0.00563012546308383 |
118 | 96.2 | 89.971213072389 | 0.209322058531196 | 6.92666086246568 | -0.970412794375459 |
119 | 92.8 | 91.4534635849543 | 0.216090086650974 | 0.70773142873398 | 0.888034454583175 |
120 | 92.8 | 91.7708660038709 | 0.216610487942527 | 0.978291146329719 | 0.0706686306007855 |
121 | 90 | 92.7000395370952 | 0.220260666754913 | -3.05744698539067 | 0.496776121545768 |
122 | 95.4 | 94.805868018855 | 0.230189555955269 | -0.350747043136109 | 1.31352711629922 |
123 | 108.3 | 97.9515713208094 | 0.246258244069238 | 8.8890006763148 | 2.02936782119177 |
124 | 96.3 | 98.4403638286551 | 0.247659500879549 | -2.26166589365367 | 0.168724441249988 |
125 | 95 | 97.6254067636719 | 0.241302871288251 | -2.09413551053132 | -0.739151270059393 |
126 | 109 | 100.026436203149 | 0.254406924769147 | 7.89352610093551 | 1.50281725648982 |
127 | 92 | 100.006127581784 | 0.252754970046986 | -7.86865085938888 | -0.191283849204109 |
128 | 92.3 | 100.471130739243 | 0.253993665819227 | -8.27744692016024 | 0.147901654247571 |
129 | 107 | 100.859092173392 | 0.254741251275501 | 6.07373987526322 | 0.0934175286935096 |
130 | 105.5 | 100.605339622052 | 0.252042991382611 | 5.14979372871337 | -0.354750628686388 |
131 | 105.4 | 102.237946066129 | 0.259050931796801 | 2.4690804820767 | 0.96334968069989 |
132 | 103.9 | 103.251874637957 | 0.26277956730794 | 0.269206491201331 | 0.526700701954726 |
133 | 99.2 | 103.82262612907 | 0.264295181718437 | -4.77715975614591 | 0.214802184779206 |
134 | 102.2 | 104.205864614763 | 0.264891659175998 | -2.06550895660225 | 0.0829144193091766 |
135 | 121.5 | 107.256640045378 | 0.27932879411259 | 12.8474115490035 | 1.9409313220666 |
136 | 102.3 | 106.956200693052 | 0.276217231049413 | -4.36586404537874 | -0.403770223341368 |
137 | 110 | 109.181478568249 | 0.286958515456856 | -0.15728041687817 | 1.35727969797554 |
138 | 105.9 | 105.913684804093 | 0.267150654738276 | 1.76628234364788 | -2.47603096765636 |
139 | 91.9 | 103.509122673231 | 0.252366748166878 | -10.2706568608585 | -1.8618291943824 |
140 | 100 | 104.878696400334 | 0.258404756242433 | -5.4387728293103 | 0.778980756772547 |
141 | 111.7 | 105.525185072066 | 0.26042930965714 | 5.98012631466643 | 0.270733721572435 |
142 | 104.9 | 104.181573249257 | 0.252386490854226 | 1.52356896050976 | -1.1194198798687 |
143 | 103.3 | 103.173720494865 | 0.246284427204429 | 0.759054381239044 | -0.879636255301342 |
144 | 101.8 | 102.72965617846 | 0.243014411572975 | -0.583015980784049 | -0.481830690146357 |
145 | 100.8 | 103.951902911434 | 0.24763297062013 | -3.64347657862703 | 0.683283130075384 |
146 | 104.2 | 105.547226109127 | 0.254070039938371 | -2.0234597869078 | 0.94002529868943 |
147 | 116.5 | 105.194465284656 | 0.251102615848117 | 11.6098684436238 | -0.423105257100847 |
148 | 97.9 | 104.304615247665 | 0.245377519430433 | -5.83265008565514 | -0.795301745857293 |
149 | 100.7 | 102.251915844379 | 0.233614556591386 | -0.400087542651709 | -1.60178088553443 |
150 | 107 | 102.579522606577 | 0.234099680401693 | 4.37336222653997 | 0.0655242720718434 |
151 | 96.3 | 104.261974993429 | 0.241533093439283 | -8.68824218344708 | 1.01002061412158 |
152 | 96 | 103.620337237994 | 0.237084228137481 | -7.17725684807201 | -0.616138774402831 |
153 | 104.5 | 101.511410024309 | 0.22559220411924 | 4.16617380140275 | -1.63731198160666 |
154 | 107.4 | 102.480769182596 | 0.229123308863806 | 4.54573802708741 | 0.51923225450059 |
155 | 102.4 | 102.437143643285 | 0.227863793827997 | 0.0998552754287463 | -0.190434889619689 |
156 | 94.9 | 100.461303214937 | 0.217868021004215 | -4.45436196734861 | -1.53859460752448 |
157 | 98.8 | 101.052740460955 | 0.219554690483085 | -2.44035680866531 | 0.260775059802165 |
158 | 96.8 | 100.230800620606 | 0.214813800747917 | -2.90789765594356 | -0.726837009740725 |
159 | 108.2 | 98.5903030942997 | 0.206226586174422 | 10.540858545734 | -1.29443302688531 |
160 | 103.8 | 101.704262733585 | 0.219940298028261 | 0.636798570137886 | 2.02831948762429 |
161 | 102.3 | 102.731244555159 | 0.223802837347454 | -0.836121788730456 | 0.562937283333932 |
162 | 107.2 | 103.185898380015 | 0.224914358780527 | 3.89827933543883 | 0.161045047876908 |
163 | 102 | 105.540681097728 | 0.235121051216984 | -4.60954895411095 | 1.48618855700716 |
164 | 92.6 | 103.679418722825 | 0.225223454490196 | -10.02697136696 | -1.46326523917781 |
165 | 105.2 | 102.649883970004 | 0.219429366307962 | 3.18028478379588 | -0.876068981201519 |
166 | 113 | 104.30022377306 | 0.225874763174323 | 7.98090851189453 | 0.999276712290451 |
167 | 105.6 | 104.646944623607 | 0.226407177548925 | 0.892332156601942 | 0.0844022038808757 |
168 | 101.6 | 105.267378106344 | 0.22811771256442 | -3.86537840127995 | 0.27519570872892 |
169 | 101.7 | 104.870455476392 | 0.225417138114836 | -2.85640298737259 | -0.436489166250809 |
170 | 102.7 | 105.07047183451 | 0.225306844423533 | -2.35771190007569 | -0.017735081500279 |
171 | 109 | 103.65220157905 | 0.218087084955422 | 6.17323473584546 | -1.14734751475684 |
172 | 105.5 | 104.14405244756 | 0.219305988200359 | 1.21848569548393 | 0.191084274368983 |
173 | 103.3 | 104.464669582871 | 0.21976188016626 | -1.21553536546006 | 0.0707122612213932 |
174 | 108.6 | 104.935068358097 | 0.220894383844108 | 3.53908595770302 | 0.174952608733638 |
175 | 98.2 | 103.95460679016 | 0.215488353581614 | -5.15128846546144 | -0.838734775974653 |
176 | 90 | 102.458471306735 | 0.207878195967567 | -11.5986651860466 | -1.19525015514336 |
177 | 112.4 | 104.865265828887 | 0.217483232861473 | 6.42982531599661 | 1.53586965604801 |
178 | 111.9 | 105.076507781068 | 0.217456506052897 | 6.8266291017426 | -0.00436006433635142 |
179 | 102.1 | 103.932069054315 | 0.21172772842813 | -1.14747024400405 | -0.951485309093842 |
180 | 102.4 | 104.456354507046 | 0.213026429127938 | -2.21347808842917 | 0.218368082938538 |
181 | 101.7 | 104.554717338772 | 0.212552239204424 | -2.79707947216271 | -0.0801034239222057 |
182 | 98.7 | 103.205524793495 | 0.206076408560731 | -3.72059711379056 | -1.09089126618794 |
183 | 114 | 104.680008384421 | 0.211377204602075 | 8.68260326845978 | 0.885878626306044 |
184 | 105.1 | 104.747251829576 | 0.21076912116358 | 0.425166935926301 | -0.100656782739838 |
185 | 98.3 | 103.037922724603 | 0.202607743477944 | -3.77324166943327 | -1.34089277518315 |
186 | 110 | 103.699608675016 | 0.204564141971763 | 6.06973435117047 | 0.320616588969806 |
187 | 96.5 | 103.044411480679 | 0.200913732459855 | -6.11237669589303 | -0.600530400641529 |
188 | 92.2 | 103.671505214088 | 0.202705538755141 | -11.6857063472013 | 0.297730518775369 |
189 | 112 | 104.404339385852 | 0.204902799031954 | 7.32915586417488 | 0.370411094223959 |
190 | 111.4 | 104.424598173556 | 0.204149620277776 | 7.06824311419954 | -0.12903133591987 |
191 | 107.5 | 105.956813714058 | 0.209488788257962 | 0.875335061965109 | 0.92813662785188 |
192 | 103.4 | 106.083433075497 | 0.209159060924488 | -2.64175835713986 | -0.0579149314412237 |
193 | 103.5 | 106.048358379907 | 0.208191763618966 | -2.42553884920645 | -0.170679305604968 |
194 | 107.4 | 108.019939578272 | 0.215182895701275 | -1.50662257294258 | 1.2322166851684 |
195 | 117.6 | 108.582119989443 | 0.21656555026455 | 8.84341987557343 | 0.242452849997163 |
196 | 110.2 | 108.830300474875 | 0.216692337322535 | 1.35380595412735 | 0.0220885730880961 |
197 | 104.3 | 108.772824438393 | 0.215587274253621 | -4.33499860909991 | -0.191553255695573 |
198 | 115.9 | 109.115240554947 | 0.216099185990368 | 6.72099957053161 | 0.0886160849553857 |
199 | 98.9 | 108.043966749139 | 0.210920749266856 | -8.4967047240585 | -0.899585896074953 |
200 | 101.9 | 109.961683667451 | 0.217730633817009 | -8.91995371467961 | 1.19282140652013 |
201 | 113.5 | 109.190744362468 | 0.213831515297903 | 4.806495733256 | -0.691036027524593 |
202 | 109.5 | 107.179988754476 | 0.205171332446329 | 3.43900600811737 | -1.55504766029787 |
203 | 110 | 107.627037697425 | 0.206101774988008 | 2.25128266333077 | 0.169089556330819 |
204 | 114.2 | 110.985234066937 | 0.218120885953676 | 1.62900082695921 | 2.20356751980974 |
205 | 106.9 | 111.45885410097 | 0.21909078219646 | -4.68738893598888 | 0.178609346778708 |
206 | 109.2 | 111.456673019288 | 0.218250937714053 | -2.14536387055952 | -0.154673945151948 |
207 | 124.2 | 112.848954072068 | 0.222720301163199 | 10.7605043468463 | 0.820625504419357 |
208 | 104.7 | 109.938280765478 | 0.210742382948325 | -3.66226936379951 | -2.1901011975249 |
209 | 111.9 | 111.628089435725 | 0.216414323272797 | -0.472003459561302 | 1.03379944823524 |
210 | 119 | 112.059845932448 | 0.217240494483975 | 6.83184170396554 | 0.15052049678682 |
211 | 102.9 | 112.22223801531 | 0.217030741084724 | -9.29464819448165 | -0.0383410695263267 |
212 | 106.3 | 113.047893216546 | 0.219342356855931 | -7.05407918190859 | 0.425492766040407 |
Structural Time Series Model -- Extrapolation | |||
t | Observed | Level | Seasonal |
1 | 118.519662543887 | 113.205695816373 | 5.31396672751408 |
2 | 115.675645206852 | 113.409731180747 | 2.26591402610466 |
3 | 113.983821606843 | 113.613766545121 | 0.370055061721709 |
4 | 115.603480136475 | 113.817801909495 | 1.78567822698006 |
5 | 109.413466522574 | 114.021837273868 | -4.60837075129407 |
6 | 112.021178978645 | 114.225872638242 | -2.20469365959715 |
7 | 126.81230335833 | 114.429908002616 | 12.3823953557143 |
8 | 109.741939857855 | 114.63394336699 | -4.89200350913407 |
9 | 114.345551582872 | 114.837978731363 | -0.492427148490838 |
10 | 121.755466247145 | 115.042014095737 | 6.71345215140751 |
11 | 105.549449614511 | 115.246049460111 | -9.69659984560017 |
12 | 108.512718189159 | 115.450084824485 | -6.93736663532599 |