| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.122554251846108 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 15 | 10 | 5 |
| 3 | 14 | 10.6127712592305 | 3.38722874076946 |
| 4 | 14 | 11.0278905433872 | 2.97210945661283 |
| 5 | 8 | 11.3921351942471 | -3.3921351942471 |
| 6 | 19 | 10.9764146033553 | 8.0235853966447 |
| 7 | 17 | 11.9597391087644 | 5.04026089123556 |
| 8 | 18 | 12.577444511399 | 5.42255548860099 |
| 9 | 10 | 13.2420017423985 | -3.24200174239851 |
| 10 | 15 | 12.8446806443751 | 2.15531935562492 |
| 11 | 16 | 13.1088241954931 | 2.89117580450687 |
| 12 | 12 | 13.46315008317 | -1.46315008317004 |
| 13 | 13 | 13.2838348193886 | -0.283834819388563 |
| 14 | 10 | 13.2490496554505 | -3.24904965545052 |
| 15 | 14 | 12.8508648057159 | 1.14913519428407 |
| 16 | 15 | 12.9916962097214 | 2.00830379027856 |
| 17 | 20 | 13.2378223782187 | 6.76217762178126 |
| 18 | 9 | 14.0665559975066 | -5.06655599750663 |
| 19 | 12 | 13.4456280177958 | -1.44562801779579 |
| 20 | 13 | 13.2684601576271 | -0.268460157627059 |
| 21 | 16 | 13.2355592238586 | 2.76444077614141 |
| 22 | 12 | 13.5743531949515 | -1.57435319495147 |
| 23 | 14 | 13.3814095170027 | 0.618590482997336 |
| 24 | 15 | 13.4572204108455 | 1.54277958915447 |
| 25 | 19 | 13.6462946091578 | 5.3537053908422 |
| 26 | 16 | 14.3024139679369 | 1.69758603206306 |
| 27 | 16 | 14.5104603540408 | 1.48953964595917 |
| 28 | 14 | 14.6930097709465 | -0.693009770946469 |
| 29 | 14 | 14.6080784769461 | -0.608078476946082 |
| 30 | 14 | 14.5335558741402 | -0.533555874140234 |
| 31 | 13 | 14.4681663331669 | -1.46816633316688 |
| 32 | 18 | 14.28823630662 | 3.71176369338003 |
| 33 | 15 | 14.7431287290917 | 0.256871270908295 |
| 34 | 15 | 14.7746093955186 | 0.225390604481371 |
| 35 | 15 | 14.802231972424 | 0.197768027576014 |
| 36 | 13 | 14.8264692850826 | -1.82646928508264 |
| 37 | 14 | 14.6026277083294 | -0.602627708329447 |
| 38 | 15 | 14.5287731203934 | 0.471226879606602 |
| 39 | 14 | 14.5865239780734 | -0.586523978073361 |
| 40 | 19 | 14.5146429707508 | 4.48535702924922 |
| 41 | 16 | 15.0643425457331 | 0.935657454266904 |
| 42 | 16 | 15.179011345025 | 0.82098865497499 |
| 43 | 12 | 15.2796269954096 | -3.27962699540961 |
| 44 | 10 | 14.8776947626529 | -4.87769476265289 |
| 45 | 11 | 14.2799125302823 | -3.27991253028229 |
| 46 | 13 | 13.8779453040129 | -0.877945304012869 |
| 47 | 14 | 13.7703493741178 | 0.229650625882233 |
| 48 | 11 | 13.7984940347588 | -2.79849403475875 |
| 49 | 11 | 13.4555266920331 | -2.4555266920331 |
| 50 | 16 | 13.1545914554028 | 2.84540854459716 |
| 51 | 9 | 13.5033083707825 | -4.50330837078246 |
| 52 | 16 | 12.9514087825689 | 3.0485912174311 |
| 53 | 19 | 13.3250265984058 | 5.67497340159421 |
| 54 | 13 | 14.0205187178847 | -1.02051871788473 |
| 55 | 15 | 13.8954498099194 | 1.10455019008059 |
| 56 | 14 | 14.0308171320912 | -0.0308171320912169 |
| 57 | 15 | 14.0270403615237 | 0.972959638476265 |
| 58 | 11 | 14.1462807020937 | -3.14628070209365 |
| 59 | 14 | 13.7606906245507 | 0.239309375449281 |
| 60 | 15 | 13.7900190060187 | 1.20998099398133 |
| 61 | 17 | 13.9383073214841 | 3.06169267851594 |
| 62 | 16 | 14.3135307770823 | 1.68646922291772 |
| 63 | 13 | 14.5202147509585 | -1.52021475095845 |
| 64 | 15 | 14.3339059695093 | 0.66609403049068 |
| 65 | 14 | 14.4155386250753 | -0.415538625075264 |
| 66 | 15 | 14.364612599766 | 0.635387400233995 |
| 67 | 14 | 14.4424820272341 | -0.442482027234126 |
| 68 | 12 | 14.3882539734311 | -2.3882539734311 |
| 69 | 12 | 14.0955632944988 | -2.09556329449876 |
| 70 | 15 | 13.8387431027453 | 1.1612568972547 |
| 71 | 17 | 13.9810600729895 | 3.01893992701052 |
| 72 | 13 | 14.3510439971126 | -1.3510439971126 |
| 73 | 5 | 14.1854678108353 | -9.18546781083529 |
| 74 | 7 | 13.0597496754219 | -6.05974967542187 |
| 75 | 10 | 12.3171015875758 | -2.31710158757585 |
| 76 | 15 | 12.0331309360591 | 2.96686906394094 |
| 77 | 9 | 12.3967333545157 | -3.39673335451571 |
| 78 | 9 | 11.9804492395323 | -2.98044923953231 |
| 79 | 15 | 11.6151825128161 | 3.38481748718387 |
| 80 | 14 | 12.0300062875936 | 1.96999371240643 |
| 81 | 11 | 12.2714373931591 | -1.27143739315908 |
| 82 | 18 | 12.1156173346713 | 5.8843826653287 |
| 83 | 20 | 12.8367734497969 | 7.16322655020314 |
| 84 | 20 | 13.7146573204612 | 6.28534267953882 |
| 85 | 16 | 14.4849527901485 | 1.51504720985153 |
| 86 | 15 | 14.6706282674634 | 0.329371732536641 |
| 87 | 14 | 14.7109941737236 | -0.710994173723643 |
| 88 | 13 | 14.623858814696 | -1.623858814696 |
| 89 | 18 | 14.4248480125572 | 3.57515198744277 |
| 90 | 14 | 14.8629980896144 | -0.862998089614399 |
| 91 | 12 | 14.7572340043971 | -2.75723400439709 |
| 92 | 9 | 14.4193232538236 | -5.41932325382355 |
| 93 | 19 | 13.755162146939 | 5.24483785306101 |
| 94 | 13 | 14.397939326075 | -1.39793932607503 |
| 95 | 12 | 14.2266159178417 | -2.22661591784165 |
| 96 | 14 | 13.9537346698819 | 0.0462653301180644 |
| 97 | 6 | 13.959404682801 | -7.95940468280097 |
| 98 | 14 | 12.9839457967599 | 1.01605420324011 |
| 99 | 11 | 13.1084675594731 | -2.10846755947308 |
| 100 | 11 | 12.8500658951801 | -1.85006589518006 |
| 101 | 14 | 12.6233324535303 | 1.37666754646973 |
| 102 | 12 | 12.7920489147287 | -0.792048914728687 |
| 103 | 19 | 12.6949799525586 | 6.30502004744141 |
| 104 | 13 | 13.4676869673475 | -0.467686967347483 |
| 105 | 14 | 13.410369940966 | 0.589630059033963 |
| 106 | 17 | 13.4826316117169 | 3.51736838828308 |
| 107 | 12 | 13.9137000630101 | -1.9137000630101 |
| 108 | 16 | 13.67916798353 | 2.32083201646995 |
| 109 | 15 | 13.963595814969 | 1.03640418503098 |
| 110 | 15 | 14.0906115544757 | 0.909388445524336 |
| 111 | 15 | 14.2020609750544 | 0.797939024945606 |
| 112 | 16 | 14.2998517952754 | 1.70014820472458 |
| 113 | 15 | 14.5082121865329 | 0.491787813467059 |
| 114 | 12 | 14.5684828740794 | -2.56848287407943 |
| 115 | 13 | 14.2537043770671 | -1.25370437706708 |
| 116 | 14 | 14.1000575750994 | -0.100057575099438 |
| 117 | 17 | 14.0877950938416 | 2.91220490615841 |
| 118 | 14 | 14.4446981873384 | -0.444698187338398 |
| 119 | 14 | 14.3901985336918 | -0.390198533691821 |
| 120 | 14 | 14.3423780443238 | -0.342378044323771 |
| 121 | 15 | 14.3004181592531 | 0.699581840746863 |
| 122 | 11 | 14.386154888351 | -3.38615488835099 |
| 123 | 11 | 13.9711672093741 | -2.9711672093741 |
| 124 | 16 | 13.6070380349196 | 2.39296196508043 |
| 125 | 12 | 13.9003056982462 | -1.90030569824619 |
| 126 | 12 | 13.6674151551187 | -1.66741515511873 |
| 127 | 19 | 13.4630663382663 | 5.5369336617337 |
| 128 | 18 | 14.1416411007016 | 3.8583588992984 |
| 129 | 16 | 14.6144993889589 | 1.38550061104111 |
| 130 | 16 | 14.7842983797774 | 1.21570162022264 |
| 131 | 13 | 14.9332877823118 | -1.93328778231184 |
| 132 | 11 | 14.6963551445474 | -3.69635514454739 |
| 133 | 10 | 14.2433511052499 | -4.24335110524988 |
| 134 | 14 | 13.7233103852256 | 0.276689614774375 |
| 135 | 14 | 13.7572198739579 | 0.242780126042113 |
| 136 | 14 | 13.7869736106681 | 0.213026389331919 |
| 137 | 16 | 13.8130809004361 | 2.18691909956387 |
| 138 | 10 | 14.0810971345311 | -4.08109713453115 |
| 139 | 16 | 13.5809413284974 | 2.41905867150261 |
| 140 | 7 | 13.8774072541552 | -6.87740725415523 |
| 141 | 16 | 13.0345517534812 | 2.96544824651876 |
| 142 | 15 | 13.3979800447217 | 1.6020199552783 |
| 143 | 17 | 13.5943144017834 | 3.40568559821663 |
| 144 | 11 | 14.0116956522959 | -3.01169565229587 |
| 145 | 11 | 13.6425995448406 | -2.64259954484057 |
| 146 | 10 | 13.3187377346938 | -3.31873773469377 |
| 147 | 13 | 12.9120123145449 | 0.0879876854550687 |
| 148 | 14 | 12.9227955795075 | 1.07720442049245 |
| 149 | 13 | 13.0548115613463 | -0.0548115613463214 |
| 150 | 13 | 13.048094171453 | -0.0480941714530054 |
| 151 | 12 | 13.0422000262524 | -1.04220002625242 |
| 152 | 10 | 12.9144739817611 | -2.91447398176106 |
| 153 | 15 | 12.5572928034014 | 2.44270719659861 |
| 154 | 6 | 12.8566569563596 | -6.85665695635964 |
| 155 | 15 | 12.0163444929076 | 2.98365550709243 |
| 156 | 15 | 12.3820041613458 | 2.6179958386542 |
| 157 | 11 | 12.7028506826883 | -1.70285068268829 |
| 158 | 14 | 12.4941590912658 | 1.5058409087342 |
| 159 | 14 | 12.678706297235 | 1.32129370276502 |
| 160 | 16 | 12.8406364584463 | 3.15936354155368 |
| 161 | 12 | 13.2278298935913 | -1.2278298935913 |
| 162 | 15 | 13.0773541195879 | 1.92264588041207 |
| 163 | 20 | 13.3129825470268 | 6.68701745297317 |
| 164 | 12 | 14.1325049680578 | -2.13250496805782 |
| 165 | 9 | 13.8711574171394 | -4.87115741713939 |
| 166 | 13 | 13.2741763642573 | -0.274176364257254 |
| 167 | 15 | 13.2405748850618 | 1.75942511493818 |
| 168 | 19 | 13.4561999137023 | 5.54380008629768 |
| 169 | 11 | 14.1356161856629 | -3.13561618566292 |
| 170 | 11 | 13.7513330899525 | -2.75133308995245 |
| 171 | 17 | 13.4141455215339 | 3.58585447846611 |
| 172 | 15 | 13.8536072343713 | 1.14639276562868 |
| 173 | 14 | 13.9941025420847 | 0.00589745791526752 |
| 174 | 15 | 13.9948253006273 | 1.00517469937267 |
| 175 | 11 | 14.1180137338836 | -3.11801373388358 |
| 176 | 12 | 13.7358878934816 | -1.73588789348159 |
| 177 | 15 | 13.5231474514072 | 1.47685254859276 |
| 178 | 16 | 13.704142010587 | 2.29585798941296 |
| 179 | 16 | 13.9855091688245 | 2.01449083117554 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 180 | 14.23239358549 | 8.31725555870019 | 20.1475316122799 |
| 181 | 14.23239358549 | 8.27299977496361 | 20.1917873960164 |
| 182 | 14.23239358549 | 8.22907023072178 | 20.2357169402583 |
| 183 | 14.23239358549 | 8.18545981581211 | 20.2793273551679 |
| 184 | 14.23239358549 | 8.14216167464816 | 20.3226254963319 |
| 185 | 14.23239358549 | 8.09916919363855 | 20.3656179773415 |
| 186 | 14.23239358549 | 8.05647598939411 | 20.4083111815859 |
| 187 | 14.23239358549 | 8.0140758976638 | 20.4507112733162 |
| 188 | 14.23239358549 | 7.97196296294513 | 20.4928242080349 |
| 189 | 14.23239358549 | 7.93013142871939 | 20.5346557422606 |
| 190 | 14.23239358549 | 7.88857572826646 | 20.5762114427136 |
| 191 | 14.23239358549 | 7.84729047601764 | 20.6174966949624 |
