| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.419164436062564 |
| beta | 0.260271577054952 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 14 | 20 | -6 |
| 4 | 14 | 21.8304338507085 | -7.83043385070849 |
| 5 | 8 | 22.039341306547 | -14.039341306547 |
| 6 | 19 | 18.1140513242795 | 0.885948675720542 |
| 7 | 17 | 20.5415660788894 | -3.54156607888944 |
| 8 | 18 | 20.7268513299395 | -2.72685132993947 |
| 9 | 10 | 20.9561458509711 | -10.9561458509711 |
| 10 | 15 | 16.5407346359534 | -1.54073463595344 |
| 11 | 16 | 15.9038400601175 | 0.0961599398825239 |
| 12 | 12 | 15.9635641974779 | -3.96356419747792 |
| 13 | 13 | 13.8891850227207 | -0.889185022720735 |
| 14 | 10 | 13.006469208185 | -3.00646920818505 |
| 15 | 14 | 10.9082676270616 | 3.09173237293839 |
| 16 | 15 | 11.7035127281156 | 3.29648727188443 |
| 17 | 20 | 12.9442193173663 | 7.05578068263371 |
| 18 | 9 | 16.5304496130603 | -7.53044961306027 |
| 19 | 12 | 13.1811045475201 | -1.1811045475201 |
| 20 | 13 | 12.3643246485702 | 0.635675351429764 |
| 21 | 16 | 12.378424283851 | 3.62157571614898 |
| 22 | 12 | 14.0392087184312 | -2.0392087184312 |
| 23 | 14 | 13.1047229227473 | 0.895277077252691 |
| 24 | 15 | 13.4979408859213 | 1.50205911407871 |
| 25 | 19 | 14.3093698249253 | 4.69063017507465 |
| 26 | 16 | 16.969066106071 | -0.969066106070958 |
| 27 | 16 | 17.150697180732 | -1.15069718073197 |
| 28 | 14 | 17.1306578312294 | -3.13065783122936 |
| 29 | 14 | 15.9391453020872 | -1.93914530208723 |
| 30 | 14 | 15.0355183126016 | -1.03551831260165 |
| 31 | 13 | 14.3976881050099 | -1.39768810500989 |
| 32 | 18 | 13.4555661961345 | 4.54443380386553 |
| 33 | 15 | 15.4999526923249 | -0.499952692324909 |
| 34 | 15 | 15.3753686342544 | -0.37536863425437 |
| 35 | 15 | 15.2620543450804 | -0.262054345080422 |
| 36 | 13 | 15.1676481408923 | -2.16764814089234 |
| 37 | 14 | 14.0380017699865 | -0.0380017699864634 |
| 38 | 15 | 13.7968815556794 | 1.20311844432058 |
| 39 | 14 | 14.2072509143093 | -0.207250914309254 |
| 40 | 19 | 14.0038332283083 | 4.99616677169174 |
| 41 | 16 | 16.526567934222 | -0.526567934222022 |
| 42 | 16 | 16.676921896203 | -0.676921896203012 |
| 43 | 12 | 16.6904029547276 | -4.69040295472759 |
| 44 | 10 | 14.5098685261589 | -4.50986852615893 |
| 45 | 11 | 11.9129964373034 | -0.912996437303434 |
| 46 | 13 | 10.7242004122482 | 2.2757995877518 |
| 47 | 14 | 11.120316246614 | 2.879683753386 |
| 48 | 11 | 12.0837225210879 | -1.0837225210879 |
| 49 | 11 | 11.2675794093577 | -0.267579409357715 |
| 50 | 16 | 10.764342464003 | 5.23565753599697 |
| 51 | 9 | 13.1390591067702 | -4.13905910677023 |
| 52 | 16 | 11.1326707052553 | 4.86732929474474 |
| 53 | 19 | 13.4324490417389 | 5.5675509582611 |
| 54 | 13 | 16.6331362145534 | -3.63313621455337 |
| 55 | 15 | 15.5808597694632 | -0.580859769463158 |
| 56 | 14 | 15.7446192397554 | -1.74461923975541 |
| 57 | 15 | 15.2302401201242 | -0.230240120124211 |
| 58 | 11 | 15.3255164584432 | -4.32551645844324 |
| 59 | 14 | 13.2322995093923 | 0.767700490607723 |
| 60 | 15 | 13.3577314752948 | 1.64226852470519 |
| 61 | 17 | 14.0289171519789 | 2.97108284802112 |
| 62 | 16 | 15.5812295389463 | 0.418770461053683 |
| 63 | 13 | 16.1093897723743 | -3.10938977237432 |
| 64 | 15 | 14.8194468937433 | 0.180553106256719 |
| 65 | 14 | 14.928228794505 | -0.928228794505019 |
| 66 | 15 | 14.4709821599932 | 0.52901784000681 |
| 67 | 14 | 14.6822755310099 | -0.682275531009903 |
| 68 | 12 | 14.31140386619 | -2.31140386618998 |
| 69 | 12 | 13.0054932642956 | -1.00549326429557 |
| 70 | 15 | 12.1372780581769 | 2.86272194182314 |
| 71 | 17 | 13.2027942960908 | 3.79720570390924 |
| 72 | 13 | 15.074275082491 | -2.07427508249099 |
| 73 | 5 | 14.2583436004348 | -9.25834360043484 |
| 74 | 7 | 9.421052384495 | -2.421052384495 |
| 75 | 10 | 7.18558192877875 | 2.81441807122125 |
| 76 | 15 | 7.45167790523679 | 7.54832209476321 |
| 77 | 9 | 10.5255542839455 | -1.52555428394553 |
| 78 | 9 | 9.62955161903418 | -0.629551619034183 |
| 79 | 15 | 9.04043947174863 | 5.95956052825137 |
| 80 | 14 | 11.8634165263277 | 2.1365834736723 |
| 81 | 11 | 13.3170315284495 | -2.31703152844946 |
| 82 | 18 | 12.6510692738264 | 5.34893072617365 |
| 83 | 20 | 15.7819558605958 | 4.21804413940419 |
| 84 | 20 | 18.8989892360698 | 1.1010107639302 |
| 85 | 16 | 20.8295895931232 | -4.82958959312321 |
| 86 | 15 | 19.7474014459927 | -4.7474014459927 |
| 87 | 14 | 18.1817383436913 | -4.1817383436913 |
| 88 | 13 | 16.3969677080357 | -3.39696770803566 |
| 89 | 18 | 14.5705474240369 | 3.42945257596311 |
| 90 | 14 | 15.9796613262618 | -1.97966132626183 |
| 91 | 12 | 14.9054927523497 | -2.90549275234972 |
| 92 | 9 | 13.1262692227118 | -4.12626922271177 |
| 93 | 19 | 10.3851777155679 | 8.61482228443208 |
| 94 | 13 | 13.924546369354 | -0.924546369354042 |
| 95 | 12 | 13.3644860858812 | -1.36448608588116 |
| 96 | 14 | 12.4711579417676 | 1.52884205823245 |
| 97 | 6 | 12.957401510922 | -6.95740151092199 |
| 98 | 14 | 9.12748480823404 | 4.87251519176596 |
| 99 | 11 | 10.7878232552875 | 0.21217674471246 |
| 100 | 11 | 10.5178613243961 | 0.482138675603904 |
| 101 | 14 | 10.4136575188714 | 3.58634248112861 |
| 102 | 12 | 12.0018832819418 | -0.00188328194178311 |
| 103 | 19 | 12.085846956934 | 6.91415304306603 |
| 104 | 13 | 15.8230776094597 | -2.82307760945973 |
| 105 | 14 | 15.1708193295441 | -1.17081932954406 |
| 106 | 17 | 15.0833965647819 | 1.91660343521808 |
| 107 | 12 | 16.4992065189998 | -4.49920651899978 |
| 108 | 16 | 14.7348890282566 | 1.26511097174335 |
| 109 | 15 | 15.5247877193016 | -0.524787719301571 |
| 110 | 15 | 15.5071719848754 | -0.507171984875441 |
| 111 | 15 | 15.4416094063412 | -0.441609406341216 |
| 112 | 16 | 15.3553502492427 | 0.644649750757267 |
| 113 | 15 | 15.7947413879381 | -0.794741387938092 |
| 114 | 12 | 15.5440873772912 | -3.54408737729116 |
| 115 | 13 | 13.754357462136 | -0.754357462135976 |
| 116 | 14 | 13.0516852877642 | 0.948314712235778 |
| 117 | 17 | 13.1661706353946 | 3.83382936460545 |
| 118 | 14 | 14.9084188108296 | -0.908418810829607 |
| 119 | 14 | 14.5637798106589 | -0.563779810658856 |
| 120 | 14 | 14.3020947684517 | -0.302094768451743 |
| 121 | 15 | 14.1171412806491 | 0.882858719350873 |
| 122 | 11 | 14.5251950280123 | -3.52519502801227 |
| 123 | 11 | 12.7009626597494 | -1.70096265974938 |
| 124 | 16 | 11.4558143994887 | 4.54418560051127 |
| 125 | 12 | 13.3241653358451 | -1.32416533584514 |
| 126 | 12 | 12.588250340173 | -0.588250340172957 |
| 127 | 19 | 12.096628633167 | 6.903371366833 |
| 128 | 18 | 15.4983625816469 | 2.50163741835307 |
| 129 | 16 | 17.32796631072 | -1.32796631072 |
| 130 | 16 | 17.4074597577865 | -1.40745975778649 |
| 131 | 13 | 17.3000833204677 | -4.30008332046767 |
| 132 | 11 | 15.5110975368543 | -4.51109753685428 |
| 133 | 10 | 13.1415167451258 | -3.14151674512583 |
| 134 | 14 | 11.0032867529922 | 2.99671324700775 |
| 135 | 14 | 11.764915666852 | 2.23508433314803 |
| 136 | 14 | 12.4511369030148 | 1.54886309698523 |
| 137 | 16 | 13.0186942821365 | 2.9813057178635 |
| 138 | 10 | 14.5119309486772 | -4.51193094867719 |
| 139 | 16 | 12.3720330181149 | 3.62796698188513 |
| 140 | 7 | 14.0398896352965 | -7.03988963529646 |
| 141 | 16 | 10.4681322046653 | 5.53186779533474 |
| 142 | 15 | 12.7695162940306 | 2.2304837059694 |
| 143 | 17 | 13.9304157470896 | 3.06958425291039 |
| 144 | 11 | 15.777917478793 | -4.77791747879305 |
| 145 | 11 | 13.8147710740303 | -2.81477107403033 |
| 146 | 10 | 12.3674239024441 | -2.36742390244414 |
| 147 | 13 | 10.849310883714 | 2.150689116286 |
| 148 | 14 | 11.4596630067445 | 2.54033699325548 |
| 149 | 13 | 12.5104837628037 | 0.489516237196289 |
| 150 | 13 | 12.7550779448337 | 0.244922055166251 |
| 151 | 12 | 12.9238671052342 | -0.923867105234244 |
| 152 | 10 | 12.501950666636 | -2.50195066663596 |
| 153 | 15 | 11.1456034388388 | 3.85439656116116 |
| 154 | 6 | 12.8741124289789 | -6.87411242897887 |
| 155 | 15 | 9.35566978131239 | 5.64433021868761 |
| 156 | 15 | 11.7002902594654 | 3.29970974053461 |
| 157 | 11 | 13.422116293899 | -2.42211629389897 |
| 158 | 14 | 12.481311719973 | 1.51868828002705 |
| 159 | 14 | 13.3580359837403 | 0.641964016259713 |
| 160 | 16 | 13.9373047002219 | 2.06269529977807 |
| 161 | 12 | 15.3371264649355 | -3.33712646493548 |
| 162 | 15 | 14.1094658710213 | 0.890534128978727 |
| 163 | 20 | 14.7510444815178 | 5.24895551848217 |
| 164 | 12 | 17.7921614777995 | -5.79216147779954 |
| 165 | 9 | 15.5733298357152 | -6.57332983571524 |
| 166 | 13 | 12.3099323371543 | 0.690067662845726 |
| 167 | 15 | 12.1663767830469 | 2.83362321695313 |
| 168 | 19 | 13.2304621109146 | 5.76953788908542 |
| 169 | 11 | 16.1546153594177 | -5.15461535941766 |
| 170 | 11 | 13.9374011196626 | -2.9374011196626 |
| 171 | 17 | 12.329103794195 | 4.67089620580497 |
| 172 | 15 | 14.419512969336 | 0.580487030664036 |
| 173 | 14 | 14.8586972442131 | -0.858697244213134 |
| 174 | 15 | 14.6009457139491 | 0.39905428605093 |
| 175 | 11 | 14.9139343559369 | -3.91393435593687 |
| 176 | 12 | 12.992074658966 | -0.992074658966024 |
| 177 | 15 | 12.1867226729826 | 2.81327732701742 |
| 178 | 16 | 13.2833578660039 | 2.71664213399612 |
| 179 | 16 | 14.6358634127005 | 1.36413658729949 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 180 | 15.5702693830026 | 8.4646051117432 | 22.675933654262 |
| 181 | 15.932877809977 | 7.89668970842847 | 23.9690659115255 |
| 182 | 16.2954862369514 | 7.07101907107085 | 25.5199534028319 |
| 183 | 16.6580946639258 | 6.01742869487666 | 27.2987606329749 |
| 184 | 17.0207030909002 | 4.76586183647753 | 29.2755443453228 |
| 185 | 17.3833115178746 | 3.34177449839986 | 31.4248485373493 |
| 186 | 17.745919944849 | 1.76541503994585 | 33.7264248497521 |
| 187 | 18.1085283718233 | 0.0525503793031667 | 36.1645063643435 |
| 188 | 18.4711367987977 | -1.78453046440824 | 38.7268040620037 |
| 189 | 18.8337452257721 | -3.73613655738902 | 41.4036270089333 |
| 190 | 19.1963536527465 | -5.79449957812682 | 44.1872068836199 |
| 191 | 19.5589620797209 | -7.9532803304767 | 47.0712044899185 |
