| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.479611129221829 |
| beta | 0.00359680308714235 |
| gamma | 0.570859466934555 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 97.2 | 98.4414262820513 | -1.24142628205131 |
| 14 | 86.6 | 87.0586993113858 | -0.458699311385786 |
| 15 | 88.4 | 88.5505856200448 | -0.150585620044779 |
| 16 | 81.4 | 81.5483202472177 | -0.148320247217654 |
| 17 | 86.9 | 86.9843855100775 | -0.0843855100774675 |
| 18 | 84.9 | 84.9218023471059 | -0.0218023471058899 |
| 19 | 83.7 | 81.5641971550925 | 2.13580284490754 |
| 20 | 86.8 | 85.0450878281936 | 1.75491217180635 |
| 21 | 88.3 | 90.6629931028327 | -2.36299310283273 |
| 22 | 92.5 | 95.0434955244131 | -2.54349552441306 |
| 23 | 94.7 | 93.8330392760918 | 0.866960723908221 |
| 24 | 94.5 | 95.3972713653428 | -0.89727136534276 |
| 25 | 98.7 | 94.6075211003852 | 4.0924788996148 |
| 26 | 88.6 | 86.0192834012594 | 2.58071659874059 |
| 27 | 95.2 | 89.0694467352354 | 6.13055326476464 |
| 28 | 91.3 | 85.1002021606948 | 6.19979783930515 |
| 29 | 91.7 | 93.6306831711456 | -1.9306831711456 |
| 30 | 89.3 | 90.7287962683002 | -1.42879626830019 |
| 31 | 88.7 | 87.3625210583337 | 1.33747894166635 |
| 32 | 91.2 | 90.3711812578158 | 0.828818742184211 |
| 33 | 88.6 | 94.3438279320572 | -5.74382793205721 |
| 34 | 94.6 | 97.0655982798044 | -2.46559827980438 |
| 35 | 96 | 96.9221529212348 | -0.922152921234755 |
| 36 | 94.3 | 97.1176313171243 | -2.8176313171243 |
| 37 | 102 | 96.8992656191864 | 5.10073438081358 |
| 38 | 93.4 | 88.3573510767949 | 5.04264892320506 |
| 39 | 96.7 | 93.6589278625369 | 3.04107213746308 |
| 40 | 93.7 | 88.239271793587 | 5.46072820641305 |
| 41 | 91.6 | 94.009466306644 | -2.40946630664399 |
| 42 | 89.6 | 91.0357114302767 | -1.43571143027674 |
| 43 | 92.9 | 88.4965488231432 | 4.40345117685681 |
| 44 | 94.1 | 92.8385201234223 | 1.2614798765777 |
| 45 | 92 | 95.0808370844157 | -3.08083708441566 |
| 46 | 97.5 | 100.072951634361 | -2.57295163436132 |
| 47 | 92.7 | 100.355626890076 | -7.65562689007615 |
| 48 | 100.7 | 96.7660516748435 | 3.93394832515654 |
| 49 | 105.9 | 102.1572490826 | 3.7427509174003 |
| 50 | 95.3 | 92.9635626377745 | 2.33643736222552 |
| 51 | 99.8 | 96.3847230680744 | 3.41527693192556 |
| 52 | 91.3 | 91.876108978557 | -0.576108978557002 |
| 53 | 90.8 | 92.4153297093088 | -1.61532970930885 |
| 54 | 87.1 | 90.1154444737488 | -3.01544447374877 |
| 55 | 91.4 | 88.5542534510449 | 2.84574654895513 |
| 56 | 86.1 | 91.2140585737823 | -5.11405857378229 |
| 57 | 87.1 | 89.0959390264931 | -1.99593902649306 |
| 58 | 92.6 | 94.7484413278716 | -2.14844132787162 |
| 59 | 96.6 | 93.7147255344641 | 2.88527446553586 |
| 60 | 105.3 | 98.631684094551 | 6.66831590544898 |
| 61 | 102.4 | 105.290330443259 | -2.89033044325909 |
| 62 | 98.2 | 92.4989444329826 | 5.70105556701739 |
| 63 | 98.6 | 97.8614792055322 | 0.738520794467789 |
| 64 | 92.6 | 90.8859051308637 | 1.71409486913629 |
| 65 | 87.9 | 92.2213224203775 | -4.3213224203775 |
| 66 | 84.1 | 88.2095238536271 | -4.1095238536271 |
| 67 | 86.7 | 87.8647319325508 | -1.16473193255081 |
| 68 | 84.4 | 86.2294920406489 | -1.82949204064893 |
| 69 | 86 | 86.6116853966939 | -0.611685396693943 |
| 70 | 90.4 | 92.8838772352983 | -2.48387723529828 |
| 71 | 92.9 | 93.1851542628362 | -0.28515426283623 |
| 72 | 105.8 | 97.7004058631954 | 8.09959413680458 |
| 73 | 106 | 102.203443480121 | 3.796556519879 |
| 74 | 99.1 | 95.1804428938242 | 3.91955710617577 |
| 75 | 99.9 | 98.2203094717692 | 1.67969052823084 |
| 76 | 88.1 | 91.9935402931808 | -3.89354029318081 |
| 77 | 87.8 | 88.8444616361103 | -1.04446163611033 |
| 78 | 87.1 | 86.4707766860139 | 0.629223313986074 |
| 79 | 85.9 | 89.2852973820883 | -3.38529738208831 |
| 80 | 86.5 | 86.395490001642 | 0.104509998358012 |
| 81 | 84.1 | 88.0782810158223 | -3.97828101582233 |
| 82 | 92.1 | 92.1850947903622 | -0.0850947903622341 |
| 83 | 93.3 | 94.299613536815 | -0.999613536814962 |
| 84 | 98.9 | 100.971404841511 | -2.07140484151118 |
| 85 | 103 | 99.3088280190585 | 3.69117198094153 |
| 86 | 98.4 | 92.2624502651671 | 6.13754973483292 |
| 87 | 100.7 | 95.6951490269788 | 5.00485097302122 |
| 88 | 92.3 | 89.4077192689696 | 2.8922807310304 |
| 89 | 89 | 90.3714636801688 | -1.37146368016882 |
| 90 | 88.9 | 88.3494756629336 | 0.550524337066378 |
| 91 | 85.5 | 89.9448573749581 | -4.44485737495809 |
| 92 | 90.1 | 87.5929539265087 | 2.50704607349134 |
| 93 | 87 | 89.2286696360433 | -2.22866963604332 |
| 94 | 97.1 | 95.3476912436415 | 1.75230875635849 |
| 95 | 101.5 | 98.0914738754999 | 3.40852612450006 |
| 96 | 103 | 106.58636626381 | -3.58636626380967 |
| 97 | 106.1 | 105.933770229236 | 0.166229770764318 |
| 98 | 96.1 | 97.9421436932704 | -1.84214369327039 |
| 99 | 94.2 | 97.2160475354555 | -3.01604753545547 |
| 100 | 89.1 | 86.4451345011873 | 2.65486549881268 |
| 101 | 85.2 | 86.0189843094821 | -0.818984309482062 |
| 102 | 86.5 | 84.8244858065417 | 1.67551419345831 |
| 103 | 88 | 85.4689446071846 | 2.53105539281538 |
| 104 | 88.4 | 88.533486927675 | -0.133486927675008 |
| 105 | 87.9 | 87.4969105728614 | 0.403089427138596 |
| 106 | 95.7 | 96.066288871891 | -0.366288871890987 |
| 107 | 94.8 | 98.2878353044621 | -3.48783530446215 |
| 108 | 105.2 | 101.387150342992 | 3.81284965700794 |
| 109 | 108.7 | 105.400803803157 | 3.29919619684269 |
| 110 | 96.1 | 98.3232856516381 | -2.22328565163807 |
| 111 | 98.3 | 97.0731298762664 | 1.22687012373355 |
| 112 | 88.6 | 90.0366093072666 | -1.43660930726665 |
| 113 | 90.8 | 86.6239013711969 | 4.17609862880306 |
| 114 | 88.1 | 88.5824869435361 | -0.482486943536145 |
| 115 | 91.9 | 88.4587251273634 | 3.44127487263664 |
| 116 | 98.5 | 91.1824623889506 | 7.31753761104945 |
| 117 | 98.6 | 93.9059302369835 | 4.69406976301651 |
| 118 | 100.3 | 104.339204068087 | -4.03920406808722 |
| 119 | 98.7 | 103.899981048064 | -5.1999810480642 |
| 120 | 110.7 | 108.37210087467 | 2.32789912532998 |
| 121 | 115.4 | 111.543565812579 | 3.85643418742066 |
| 122 | 105.4 | 103.11630954822 | 2.28369045178025 |
| 123 | 108 | 105.084020560228 | 2.91597943977158 |
| 124 | 94.5 | 98.1006293655987 | -3.60062936559872 |
| 125 | 96.5 | 95.3479119824748 | 1.15208801752524 |
| 126 | 91 | 94.4975284458039 | -3.49752844580387 |
| 127 | 94.1 | 94.1134466700333 | -0.013446670033332 |
| 128 | 96.4 | 96.3459184065302 | 0.0540815934698458 |
| 129 | 93.1 | 94.8080114377768 | -1.70801143777676 |
| 130 | 97.5 | 99.5669579586894 | -2.06695795868944 |
| 131 | 102.5 | 99.7227838735251 | 2.7772161264749 |
| 132 | 105.7 | 110.264885133395 | -4.56488513339464 |
| 133 | 109.1 | 110.580413471482 | -1.48041347148245 |
| 134 | 97.2 | 99.1129651757757 | -1.91296517577568 |
| 135 | 100.3 | 99.2351401080253 | 1.06485989197471 |
| 136 | 91.3 | 89.4042494373487 | 1.89575056265132 |
| 137 | 94.3 | 90.6852232065626 | 3.61477679343741 |
| 138 | 89.5 | 89.6246459866503 | -0.124645986650336 |
| 139 | 89.3 | 91.8889968929637 | -2.58899689296372 |
| 140 | 93.4 | 92.8975719602706 | 0.502428039729409 |
| 141 | 91.9 | 91.0433126361406 | 0.856687363859407 |
| 142 | 92.9 | 96.9221884305251 | -4.02218843052512 |
| 143 | 93.7 | 97.5724477174119 | -3.87244771741186 |
| 144 | 100.1 | 102.725845169653 | -2.625845169653 |
| 145 | 105.5 | 104.872663293345 | 0.627336706654546 |
| 146 | 110.5 | 94.2762577798158 | 16.2237422201842 |
| 147 | 89.5 | 104.0015457192 | -14.5015457192005 |
| 148 | 90.4 | 86.9447394102354 | 3.45526058976461 |
| 149 | 89.9 | 89.4801050041229 | 0.419894995877115 |
| 150 | 84.6 | 85.76661347625 | -1.16661347625001 |
| 151 | 86.2 | 86.787598489461 | -0.587598489461016 |
| 152 | 83.4 | 89.6663406536385 | -6.26634065363851 |
| 153 | 82.9 | 84.6511752904487 | -1.75117529044869 |
| 154 | 81.8 | 87.8056613893131 | -6.00566138931315 |
| 155 | 87.6 | 87.5214192459346 | 0.0785807540654417 |
| 156 | 94.6 | 94.9192275415882 | -0.319227541588205 |
| 157 | 99.6 | 99.1218501773723 | 0.478149822627728 |
| 158 | 96.7 | 93.0699486768087 | 3.63005132319127 |
| 159 | 99.8 | 87.5887579093962 | 12.2112420906038 |
| 160 | 83.8 | 88.6853157140462 | -4.88531571404617 |
| 161 | 82.4 | 86.3115521283212 | -3.91155212832116 |
| 162 | 86.8 | 80.0346927690697 | 6.76530723093026 |
| 163 | 91 | 85.0309504383867 | 5.96904956161329 |
| 164 | 85.3 | 89.3776947259174 | -4.07769472591744 |
| 165 | 83.6 | 86.767657647822 | -3.16765764782201 |
| 166 | 94 | 87.9905780268278 | 6.00942197317221 |
| 167 | 100.3 | 95.3087401515617 | 4.9912598484383 |
| 168 | 107.1 | 104.985419603325 | 2.11458039667484 |
| 169 | 100.7 | 110.637270187344 | -9.93727018734403 |
| 170 | 95.5 | 100.553452540659 | -5.05345254065921 |
| 171 | 92.9 | 93.4688853244261 | -0.56888532442612 |
| 172 | 79.2 | 83.3471729933803 | -4.14717299338034 |
| 173 | 82 | 81.6080561620655 | 0.391943837934548 |
| 174 | 79.3 | 80.5657385891666 | -1.26573858916663 |
| 175 | 81.5 | 81.4585940311586 | 0.041405968841417 |
| 176 | 76 | 79.9524936198866 | -3.95249361988657 |
| 177 | 73.1 | 77.647758638587 | -4.54775863858697 |
| 178 | 80.4 | 80.9075220545496 | -0.507522054549611 |
| 179 | 82.1 | 84.7589085759752 | -2.6589085759752 |
| 180 | 90.5 | 89.8600006175608 | 0.639999382439242 |
| 181 | 98.1 | 91.1699423738152 | 6.93005762618483 |
| 182 | 89.5 | 90.6013573298932 | -1.10135732989316 |
| 183 | 86.5 | 86.7259461603119 | -0.225946160311864 |
| 184 | 77 | 75.687766522397 | 1.31223347760297 |
| 185 | 74.7 | 77.9069434219731 | -3.20694342197314 |
| 186 | 73.4 | 74.6313763518993 | -1.23137635189934 |
| 187 | 72.5 | 75.9143463987551 | -3.41434639875514 |
| 188 | 69.3 | 71.543725957547 | -2.24372595754697 |
| 189 | 75.2 | 69.8640086467677 | 5.33599135323232 |
| 190 | 83.5 | 79.0637157925899 | 4.43628420741013 |
| 191 | 90.5 | 84.6549837013612 | 5.8450162986388 |
| 192 | 92.2 | 94.8372125353376 | -2.63721253533755 |
| 193 | 110.5 | 96.4608511190165 | 14.0391488809835 |
| 194 | 101.8 | 96.9451486714455 | 4.8548513285545 |
| 195 | 107.4 | 96.2259007908063 | 11.1740992091937 |
| 196 | 95.5 | 91.1713628625017 | 4.32863713749833 |
| 197 | 84.5 | 93.5590447776364 | -9.05904477763636 |
| 198 | 81.1 | 88.1178402860855 | -7.01784028608549 |
| 199 | 86.2 | 86.0212992099927 | 0.178700790007312 |
| 200 | 91.5 | 83.7721312956239 | 7.72786870437615 |
| 201 | 84.7 | 89.1942339776119 | -4.49423397761191 |
| 202 | 92.2 | 93.4626566642294 | -1.26265666422941 |
| 203 | 99.2 | 96.7799846005087 | 2.42001539949132 |
| 204 | 104.5 | 102.834675010428 | 1.66532498957173 |
| 205 | 113 | 111.51824583192 | 1.4817541680801 |
| 206 | 100.4 | 103.272204279483 | -2.8722042794827 |
| 207 | 101 | 100.731593394772 | 0.268406605227923 |
| 208 | 84.8 | 88.4015436548713 | -3.60154365487126 |
| 209 | 86.5 | 82.9836321069316 | 3.51636789306836 |
| 210 | 91.7 | 84.176680934627 | 7.52331906537302 |
| 211 | 94.8 | 91.2137618714213 | 3.58623812857866 |
| 212 | 95 | 92.8690396451812 | 2.13096035481884 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 213 | 91.9938707380504 | 84.043496733241 | 99.9442447428598 |
| 214 | 99.4034067798126 | 90.5799796488149 | 108.22683391081 |
| 215 | 104.448132021187 | 94.8251157274216 | 114.071148314952 |
| 216 | 109.141592092691 | 98.7754186532354 | 119.507765532147 |
| 217 | 116.992679574187 | 105.92838700327 | 128.056972145104 |
| 218 | 106.760748645421 | 95.035311606983 | 118.48618568386 |
| 219 | 106.553813623943 | 94.1982545949928 | 118.909372652893 |
| 220 | 92.9680850136811 | 80.008885894147 | 105.927284133215 |
| 221 | 91.4209308805972 | 77.8810173414955 | 104.960844419699 |
| 222 | 92.1406719401348 | 78.0401235254054 | 106.241220354864 |
| 223 | 94.4097635179787 | 79.7663404595724 | 109.053186576385 |
| 224 | 93.9163998352679 | 78.7459431955104 | 109.086856475025 |
