Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[200])
199	98.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
200	101.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
201	113.5	116.1679	106.9094	125.4264	0.2861	0.9987	0.9987	0.9987
202	109.5	109.268	99.8683	118.6676	0.4807	0.1888	0.1888	0.9378
203	110	106.6247	97.2135	116.0358	0.241	0.2746	0.2746	0.8374
204	114.2	108.9764	97.7572	120.1957	0.1807	0.429	0.429	0.8918
205	106.9	102.7196	91.0176	114.4215	0.2419	0.0272	0.0272	0.5546
206	109.2	104.1292	92.2015	116.0568	0.2023	0.3244	0.3244	0.6429
207	124.2	111.7463	98.6277	124.8649	0.0314	0.6482	0.6482	0.9294
208	104.7	110.9945	97.5778	124.4111	0.1789	0.0269	0.0269	0.908
209	111.9	108.1048	94.6203	121.5893	0.2906	0.6897	0.6897	0.8164
210	119	106.5995	92.5647	120.6342	0.0417	0.2296	0.2296	0.7442
211	102.9	103.7342	89.1908	118.2776	0.4552	0.0198	0.0198	0.5976
212	106.3	105.2155	90.2749	120.1561	0.4434	0.6193	0.6193	0.6682

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	sMAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE	ScaledE	MASE
201	0.0407	-0.0235	0.0235	0.0232	7.1178	0	0	-0.3389	0.3389
202	0.0439	0.0021	0.0128	0.0127	0.0538	3.5858	1.8936	0.0295	0.1842
203	0.045	0.0307	0.0188	0.0188	11.393	6.1882	2.4876	0.4287	0.2657
204	0.0525	0.0457	0.0255	0.0258	27.2858	11.4626	3.3856	0.6635	0.3651
205	0.0581	0.0391	0.0282	0.0286	17.4759	12.6653	3.5588	0.531	0.3983
206	0.0584	0.0464	0.0313	0.0318	25.7132	14.8399	3.8523	0.6441	0.4393
207	0.0599	0.1003	0.0411	0.0423	155.0943	34.8763	5.9056	1.5819	0.6025
208	0.0617	-0.0601	0.0435	0.0443	39.6203	35.4693	5.9556	-0.7995	0.6271
209	0.0636	0.0339	0.0424	0.0432	14.4034	33.1286	5.7557	0.4821	0.611
210	0.0672	0.1042	0.0486	0.0499	153.7729	45.193	6.7226	1.5751	0.7074
211	0.0715	-0.0081	0.0449	0.0461	0.6959	41.1479	6.4147	-0.106	0.6528
212	0.0724	0.0102	0.042	0.0431	1.1762	37.8169	6.1495	0.1378	0.6098