Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[200])
199	98.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
200	101.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
201	113.5	109.5311	97.4927	121.5695	0.2591	0.893	0.893	0.893
202	109.5	108.9868	96.6234	121.3501	0.4676	0.2372	0.2372	0.8694
203	110	106.0369	93.6549	118.419	0.2652	0.2918	0.2918	0.7437
204	114.2	105.674	93.1172	118.2308	0.0916	0.2498	0.2498	0.7221
205	106.9	106.7043	93.5491	119.8595	0.4884	0.132	0.132	0.7629
206	109.2	107.0373	93.4884	120.5861	0.3772	0.5079	0.5079	0.7713
207	124.2	106.717	92.9524	120.4816	0.0064	0.3618	0.3618	0.7536
208	104.7	106.5314	92.5371	120.5257	0.3988	0.0067	0.0067	0.7417
209	111.9	106.6152	92.3341	120.8962	0.2341	0.6037	0.6037	0.7412
210	119	106.7005	92.1333	121.2676	0.049	0.2421	0.2421	0.7408
211	102.9	106.6856	91.8597	121.5115	0.3084	0.0518	0.0518	0.7365
212	106.3	106.6509	91.5765	121.7254	0.4818	0.6871	0.6871	0.7316

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	sMAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE	ScaledE	MASE
201	0.0561	0.035	0.035	0.0356	15.7521	0	0	0.5041	0.5041
202	0.0579	0.0047	0.0198	0.0201	0.2634	8.0078	2.8298	0.0652	0.2847
203	0.0596	0.036	0.0252	0.0257	15.7059	10.5738	3.2517	0.5034	0.3576
204	0.0606	0.0747	0.0376	0.0386	72.6924	26.1034	5.1092	1.083	0.5389
205	0.0629	0.0018	0.0304	0.0313	0.0383	20.8904	4.5706	0.0249	0.4361
206	0.0646	0.0198	0.0287	0.0294	4.6775	18.1883	4.2648	0.2747	0.4092
207	0.0658	0.1408	0.0447	0.0468	305.6562	59.2551	7.6977	2.2207	0.668
208	0.067	-0.0175	0.0413	0.0431	3.354	52.2675	7.2296	-0.2326	0.6136
209	0.0683	0.0472	0.0419	0.0437	27.9291	49.5632	7.0401	0.6713	0.62
210	0.0697	0.1034	0.0481	0.0502	151.2782	59.7347	7.7288	1.5623	0.7142
211	0.0709	-0.0368	0.0471	0.049	14.3307	55.6071	7.457	-0.4808	0.693
212	0.0721	-0.0033	0.0434	0.0452	0.1232	50.9834	7.1403	-0.0446	0.639