| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.321916087149177 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0.240484918263256 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 74.8 | 72.2376602564103 | 2.56233974358973 |
| 14 | 73.7 | 71.8943076849026 | 1.80569231509745 |
| 15 | 80.5 | 79.4907114671964 | 1.00928853280357 |
| 16 | 71.8 | 71.3557400601035 | 0.44425993989654 |
| 17 | 76.9 | 76.8555435259211 | 0.0444564740788707 |
| 18 | 79.9 | 80.3683104910608 | -0.468310491060763 |
| 19 | 65.9 | 64.2743428544966 | 1.6256571455034 |
| 20 | 69.5 | 69.9169570861122 | -0.416957086112191 |
| 21 | 75.1 | 80.0353542700642 | -4.93535427006422 |
| 22 | 79.6 | 78.6783733790392 | 0.921626620960794 |
| 23 | 75.2 | 79.1901821922938 | -3.99018219229379 |
| 24 | 68 | 71.7999673982273 | -3.7999673982273 |
| 25 | 72.8 | 74.5638238690806 | -1.76382386908057 |
| 26 | 71.5 | 72.7044239300333 | -1.20442393003331 |
| 27 | 78.5 | 79.2019541368055 | -0.701954136805455 |
| 28 | 76.8 | 70.4239675635218 | 6.37603243647824 |
| 29 | 75.3 | 77.7681084881787 | -2.4681084881787 |
| 30 | 76.7 | 80.3884239991258 | -3.68842399912583 |
| 31 | 69.7 | 63.5993111348222 | 6.10068886517776 |
| 32 | 67.8 | 70.3494231005984 | -2.54942310059843 |
| 33 | 77.5 | 79.0445348650292 | -1.54453486502925 |
| 34 | 82.5 | 79.7342050386943 | 2.76579496130574 |
| 35 | 75.3 | 80.0387177809354 | -4.7387177809354 |
| 36 | 70.9 | 72.4385554666533 | -1.53855546665325 |
| 37 | 76 | 76.2624286141712 | -0.262428614171156 |
| 38 | 73.7 | 74.9775727239768 | -1.27757272397679 |
| 39 | 79.7 | 81.5334923810009 | -1.83349238100088 |
| 40 | 77.8 | 73.5454453131484 | 4.25455468685163 |
| 41 | 73.3 | 78.7644436088968 | -5.46444360889677 |
| 42 | 78.3 | 80.2211950676382 | -1.92119506763824 |
| 43 | 71.9 | 65.5972820249261 | 6.30271797507393 |
| 44 | 67 | 71.0018656979153 | -4.00186569791533 |
| 45 | 82 | 79.3932788984296 | 2.60672110157041 |
| 46 | 83.7 | 82.1221861273337 | 1.57781387266633 |
| 47 | 74.8 | 80.8205156000726 | -6.02051560007256 |
| 48 | 80 | 73.3295690697019 | 6.67043093029812 |
| 49 | 74.3 | 80.004143669049 | -5.70414366904905 |
| 50 | 76.8 | 76.8019736724994 | -0.00197367249940328 |
| 51 | 89 | 83.6778759477686 | 5.32212405223144 |
| 52 | 81.9 | 78.9861083926769 | 2.91389160732315 |
| 53 | 76.8 | 82.1886587861875 | -5.38865878618749 |
| 54 | 88.9 | 84.2476004331728 | 4.65239956682721 |
| 55 | 75.8 | 73.0808981542951 | 2.71910184570486 |
| 56 | 75.5 | 75.6515004604289 | -0.151500460428892 |
| 57 | 89.1 | 86.3600635114633 | 2.7399364885367 |
| 58 | 88 | 88.9640720905393 | -0.964072090539318 |
| 59 | 85.9 | 85.6050759380399 | 0.294924061960131 |
| 60 | 89.3 | 82.2166704128127 | 7.08332958718728 |
| 61 | 82.9 | 87.0062547916396 | -4.10625479163964 |
| 62 | 81.2 | 85.2483178291112 | -4.04831782911121 |
| 63 | 90.5 | 91.6898318750943 | -1.18983187509428 |
| 64 | 86.4 | 84.5090530015489 | 1.89094699845114 |
| 65 | 81.8 | 86.0284128580304 | -4.22841285803037 |
| 66 | 91.3 | 90.0982412206081 | 1.20175877939188 |
| 67 | 73.4 | 77.5054613234366 | -4.10546132343663 |
| 68 | 76.6 | 77.4110208412203 | -0.811020841220341 |
| 69 | 91 | 88.3787772717339 | 2.62122272826615 |
| 70 | 87 | 90.3405611756915 | -3.34056117569146 |
| 71 | 89.7 | 86.4218381418754 | 3.27816185812462 |
| 72 | 90.7 | 85.1007630457789 | 5.59923695422111 |
| 73 | 86.5 | 87.5879203068834 | -1.08792030688345 |
| 74 | 86.6 | 86.8110814912933 | -0.211081491293328 |
| 75 | 98.8 | 94.9539939601807 | 3.84600603981931 |
| 76 | 84.4 | 89.8967117132376 | -5.49671171323762 |
| 77 | 91.4 | 88.0399877709247 | 3.36001222907532 |
| 78 | 95.7 | 95.4381446560647 | 0.261855343935338 |
| 79 | 78.5 | 81.6773518899393 | -3.17735188993929 |
| 80 | 81.7 | 82.4189057296289 | -0.718905729628929 |
| 81 | 94.3 | 93.9760078664099 | 0.323992133590124 |
| 82 | 98.5 | 94.2260944187259 | 4.27390558127411 |
| 83 | 95.4 | 93.8378989733463 | 1.56210102665366 |
| 84 | 91.7 | 92.3428915779786 | -0.642891577978574 |
| 85 | 92.8 | 91.7301395043223 | 1.0698604956777 |
| 86 | 90.5 | 91.7909102304167 | -1.29091023041667 |
| 87 | 102.2 | 100.24779347825 | 1.95220652175017 |
| 88 | 91.8 | 93.0573594857562 | -1.25735948575615 |
| 89 | 95 | 94.0096079368677 | 0.990392063132276 |
| 90 | 102 | 100.139732766462 | 1.86026723353791 |
| 91 | 88.9 | 86.3326665740434 | 2.56733342595658 |
| 92 | 89.6 | 89.3244232772358 | 0.275576722764242 |
| 93 | 97.9 | 101.371729577886 | -3.47172957788649 |
| 94 | 108.6 | 101.044020504653 | 7.55597949534652 |
| 95 | 100.8 | 101.270166318282 | -0.47016631828248 |
| 96 | 95.1 | 98.7613735327883 | -3.66137353278832 |
| 97 | 101 | 97.4562202488341 | 3.54377975116586 |
| 98 | 100.9 | 97.9284169677961 | 2.97158303220388 |
| 99 | 102.5 | 108.286317025867 | -5.78631702586715 |
| 100 | 105.4 | 98.0813472398271 | 7.3186527601729 |
| 101 | 98.4 | 102.160890491224 | -3.76089049122439 |
| 102 | 105.3 | 106.90335066644 | -1.60335066643977 |
| 103 | 96.5 | 92.0965906969397 | 4.40340930306027 |
| 104 | 88.1 | 95.3056953929668 | -7.20569539296677 |
| 105 | 107.9 | 104.333590527119 | 3.56640947288146 |
| 106 | 107 | 108.069848625452 | -1.06984862545202 |
| 107 | 92.5 | 104.210386396662 | -11.7103863966624 |
| 108 | 95.7 | 97.5627991212328 | -1.86279912123281 |
| 109 | 85.2 | 98.0115726862936 | -12.8115726862936 |
| 110 | 85.5 | 93.1254108239949 | -7.62541082399491 |
| 111 | 94.7 | 98.6438264794969 | -3.94382647949691 |
| 112 | 86.2 | 91.1689977606507 | -4.96899776065068 |
| 113 | 88.8 | 89.4862191033632 | -0.686219103363214 |
| 114 | 93.4 | 95.5702932242408 | -2.17029322424079 |
| 115 | 83.4 | 81.5605413921983 | 1.83945860780167 |
| 116 | 82.9 | 82.0511845489557 | 0.84881545104426 |
| 117 | 96.7 | 95.428552174616 | 1.27144782538399 |
| 118 | 96.2 | 97.6699954390027 | -1.46999543900267 |
| 119 | 92.8 | 91.9465781455562 | 0.853421854443752 |
| 120 | 92.8 | 90.9493186219644 | 1.85068137803562 |
| 121 | 90 | 90.8081162423023 | -0.808116242302262 |
| 122 | 95.4 | 90.6317621027329 | 4.76823789726706 |
| 123 | 108.3 | 100.740244769521 | 7.55975523047854 |
| 124 | 96.3 | 96.8014304540962 | -0.501430454096223 |
| 125 | 95 | 97.2552218205991 | -2.25522182059908 |
| 126 | 109 | 102.592202310937 | 6.40779768906295 |
| 127 | 92 | 91.9977419793997 | 0.00225802060030844 |
| 128 | 92.3 | 91.7354175681032 | 0.56458243189681 |
| 129 | 107 | 105.090204231762 | 1.90979576823786 |
| 130 | 105.5 | 107.090097681598 | -1.59009768159795 |
| 131 | 105.4 | 101.706894772736 | 3.69310522726401 |
| 132 | 103.9 | 101.786397077 | 2.11360292299977 |
| 133 | 99.2 | 101.296266024523 | -2.09626602452332 |
| 134 | 102.2 | 101.614565986066 | 0.585434013933664 |
| 135 | 121.5 | 110.831746606018 | 10.6682533939824 |
| 136 | 102.3 | 106.579078735832 | -4.27907873583217 |
| 137 | 110 | 105.530795424556 | 4.46920457544415 |
| 138 | 105.9 | 114.44514648165 | -8.54514648165042 |
| 139 | 91.9 | 97.9925482154849 | -6.09254821548485 |
| 140 | 100 | 95.8599052824952 | 4.14009471750475 |
| 141 | 111.7 | 110.585069402836 | 1.1149305971641 |
| 142 | 104.9 | 111.758359001761 | -6.85835900176087 |
| 143 | 103.3 | 105.54074439664 | -2.24074439663967 |
| 144 | 101.8 | 103.452477259084 | -1.65247725908351 |
| 145 | 100.8 | 101.063485483245 | -0.263485483245333 |
| 146 | 104.2 | 102.409089006412 | 1.79091099358847 |
| 147 | 116.5 | 113.658526872082 | 2.84147312791767 |
| 148 | 97.9 | 104.448846702825 | -6.54884670282495 |
| 149 | 100.7 | 104.096461980871 | -3.39646198087129 |
| 150 | 107 | 108.356491818814 | -1.35649181881405 |
| 151 | 96.3 | 94.6179797682982 | 1.68202023170176 |
| 152 | 96 | 96.6567218724973 | -0.656721872497286 |
| 153 | 104.5 | 109.344403215548 | -4.84440321554827 |
| 154 | 107.4 | 107.299091393782 | 0.100908606217615 |
| 155 | 102.4 | 104.074766571729 | -1.67476657172891 |
| 156 | 94.9 | 102.264624907985 | -7.36462490798542 |
| 157 | 98.8 | 98.2633023482916 | 0.536697651708437 |
| 158 | 96.8 | 100.201505980578 | -3.40150598057798 |
| 159 | 108.2 | 109.950735359811 | -1.75073535981085 |
| 160 | 103.8 | 97.7314797669284 | 6.06852023307158 |
| 161 | 102.3 | 101.954884519446 | 0.345115480554313 |
| 162 | 107.2 | 107.752044134783 | -0.552044134783415 |
| 163 | 102 | 94.7679837179074 | 7.23201628209259 |
| 164 | 92.6 | 98.2119826048979 | -5.61198260489792 |
| 165 | 105.2 | 108.621604984377 | -3.42160498437653 |
| 166 | 113 | 107.84074162974 | 5.15925837026032 |
| 167 | 105.6 | 105.955223476612 | -0.355223476612395 |
| 168 | 101.6 | 103.642024713538 | -2.04202471353753 |
| 169 | 101.7 | 102.642593189751 | -0.942593189750838 |
| 170 | 102.7 | 103.462390554235 | -0.762390554234983 |
| 171 | 109 | 114.330383084064 | -5.3303830840639 |
| 172 | 105.5 | 102.233859135803 | 3.26614086419669 |
| 173 | 103.3 | 104.621823258827 | -1.32182325882673 |
| 174 | 108.6 | 109.736069597301 | -1.13606959730058 |
| 175 | 98.2 | 97.8333405815716 | 0.366659418428398 |
| 176 | 90 | 96.9728131818574 | -6.9728131818574 |
| 177 | 112.4 | 107.301544894955 | 5.0984551050451 |
| 178 | 111.9 | 110.662698361306 | 1.23730163869375 |
| 179 | 102.1 | 106.615398454591 | -4.51539845459142 |
| 180 | 102.4 | 102.687907526835 | -0.287907526835198 |
| 181 | 101.7 | 102.432437693165 | -0.732437693164499 |
| 182 | 98.7 | 103.349272948149 | -4.64927294814866 |
| 183 | 114 | 112.221117741168 | 1.77888225883245 |
| 184 | 105.1 | 103.81500684595 | 1.28499315405003 |
| 185 | 98.3 | 104.817053137887 | -6.51705313788699 |
| 186 | 110 | 108.289162057206 | 1.71083794279356 |
| 187 | 96.5 | 97.5479468265377 | -1.04794682653774 |
| 188 | 92.2 | 95.0351947971227 | -2.8351947971227 |
| 189 | 112 | 108.664341528065 | 3.33565847193478 |
| 190 | 111.4 | 110.828388141474 | 0.571611858526026 |
| 191 | 107.5 | 105.628705196528 | 1.8712948034723 |
| 192 | 103.4 | 104.446566097375 | -1.04656609737467 |
| 193 | 103.5 | 103.87438279579 | -0.374382795789998 |
| 194 | 107.4 | 104.2677674529 | 3.13223254709953 |
| 195 | 117.6 | 116.69283659513 | 0.907163404870033 |
| 196 | 110.2 | 107.925567397465 | 2.27443260253484 |
| 197 | 104.3 | 107.973858634454 | -3.67385863445401 |
| 198 | 115.9 | 113.702951198417 | 2.19704880158291 |
| 199 | 98.9 | 102.668382917307 | -3.76838291730689 |
| 200 | 101.9 | 98.9884340884711 | 2.91156591152892 |
| 201 | 113.5 | 115.473830130605 | -1.97383013060451 |
| 202 | 109.5 | 115.477936757277 | -5.97793675727657 |
| 203 | 110 | 108.381786688167 | 1.61821331183346 |
| 204 | 114.2 | 106.642364059433 | 7.55763594056667 |
| 205 | 106.9 | 108.94962403907 | -2.04962403906973 |
| 206 | 109.2 | 109.375541687412 | -0.175541687411837 |
| 207 | 124.2 | 120.372945392498 | 3.82705460750206 |
| 208 | 104.7 | 112.768595304074 | -8.06859530407425 |
| 209 | 111.9 | 108.517317835863 | 3.38268216413724 |
| 210 | 119 | 117.475387139241 | 1.52461286075854 |
| 211 | 102.9 | 105.251574198512 | -2.35157419851181 |
| 212 | 106.3 | 103.11701115935 | 3.18298884065038 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 213 | 118.893126184575 | 111.443484251614 | 126.342768117536 |
| 214 | 118.879695002841 | 111.053563499427 | 126.705826506255 |
| 215 | 114.946635192771 | 106.761312738028 | 123.131957647515 |
| 216 | 113.654819104075 | 105.125418593633 | 122.184219614517 |
| 217 | 111.962508654506 | 103.102382106486 | 120.822635202526 |
| 218 | 113.353837903097 | 104.174893964586 | 122.532781841608 |
| 219 | 125.060450493853 | 115.573397147016 | 134.54750384069 |
| 220 | 114.284298768392 | 104.498832474692 | 124.069765062092 |
| 221 | 114.497779772058 | 104.422735357043 | 124.572824187073 |
| 222 | 122.063915850662 | 111.707387023689 | 132.420444677636 |
| 223 | 108.717219732731 | 98.0866572488666 | 119.347782216594 |
| 224 | 108.242181665816 | 97.3444741957686 | 119.139889135864 |
