| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.247959489735621 |
| beta | 0.0345337296488465 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 115 | 110.643162393162 | 4.35683760683766 |
| 14 | 126 | 122.073143387587 | 3.92685661241272 |
| 15 | 141 | 137.430132053628 | 3.56986794637163 |
| 16 | 135 | 132.062503983316 | 2.9374960166837 |
| 17 | 125 | 123.06322697046 | 1.93677302954006 |
| 18 | 149 | 147.499062384579 | 1.50093761542098 |
| 19 | 170 | 160.131347416214 | 9.86865258378634 |
| 20 | 170 | 163.506325051358 | 6.49367494864239 |
| 21 | 158 | 153.850050071908 | 4.14994992809187 |
| 22 | 133 | 138.731495445679 | -5.73149544567858 |
| 23 | 114 | 123.321997399522 | -9.32199739952222 |
| 24 | 140 | 135.609043041043 | 4.39095695895742 |
| 25 | 145 | 136.860463840114 | 8.13953615988564 |
| 26 | 150 | 149.177864159562 | 0.822135840438364 |
| 27 | 178 | 163.742778738725 | 14.2572212612748 |
| 28 | 163 | 160.88736830728 | 2.1126316927203 |
| 29 | 172 | 151.26166711948 | 20.7383328805204 |
| 30 | 178 | 180.523451938488 | -2.52345193848808 |
| 31 | 199 | 198.907941418776 | 0.0920585812235686 |
| 32 | 199 | 197.694112643342 | 1.30588735665759 |
| 33 | 184 | 185.317990243194 | -1.31799024319366 |
| 34 | 162 | 161.694628859307 | 0.305371140692898 |
| 35 | 146 | 145.415787851415 | 0.584212148585237 |
| 36 | 166 | 170.890657487435 | -4.89065748743522 |
| 37 | 171 | 172.999007307477 | -1.99900730747714 |
| 38 | 180 | 177.551972077215 | 2.44802792278534 |
| 39 | 193 | 202.890186966572 | -9.89018696657155 |
| 40 | 181 | 184.973617184964 | -3.9736171849643 |
| 41 | 183 | 187.853581322794 | -4.8535813227945 |
| 42 | 218 | 193.064187605336 | 24.9358123946635 |
| 43 | 230 | 220.247948846113 | 9.75205115388661 |
| 44 | 242 | 222.448490221367 | 19.5515097786334 |
| 45 | 209 | 212.885752351812 | -3.88575235181227 |
| 46 | 191 | 190.087007403601 | 0.912992596399391 |
| 47 | 172 | 174.41421857194 | -2.41421857193995 |
| 48 | 194 | 195.248286577791 | -1.24828657779145 |
| 49 | 196 | 200.685635881057 | -4.6856358810567 |
| 50 | 196 | 208.144971709426 | -12.1449717094261 |
| 51 | 236 | 220.689112540808 | 15.310887459192 |
| 52 | 235 | 213.789920520889 | 21.2100794791114 |
| 53 | 229 | 222.787331740528 | 6.21266825947168 |
| 54 | 243 | 253.774189579802 | -10.7741895798022 |
| 55 | 264 | 261.00816897443 | 2.99183102556992 |
| 56 | 272 | 269.167807518786 | 2.83219248121378 |
| 57 | 237 | 237.95618678454 | -0.956186784540307 |
| 58 | 211 | 219.640392882199 | -8.6403928821988 |
| 59 | 180 | 199.162435425533 | -19.1624354255327 |
| 60 | 201 | 216.642919355326 | -15.6429193553264 |
| 61 | 204 | 215.725163322482 | -11.7251633224824 |
| 62 | 188 | 215.568185948207 | -27.5681859482071 |
| 63 | 235 | 244.542771479218 | -9.54277147921769 |
| 64 | 227 | 235.311347905093 | -8.31134790509267 |
| 65 | 234 | 224.851226946991 | 9.14877305300945 |
| 66 | 264 | 242.957703039887 | 21.0422969601127 |
| 67 | 302 | 267.87231929887 | 34.1276807011296 |
| 68 | 293 | 283.337779746876 | 9.66222025312373 |
| 69 | 259 | 250.734646991179 | 8.26535300882136 |
| 70 | 229 | 228.76948330091 | 0.230516699089975 |
| 71 | 203 | 202.49700729617 | 0.502992703829761 |
| 72 | 229 | 227.587791285747 | 1.41220871425273 |
| 73 | 242 | 234.078621708001 | 7.92137829199925 |
| 74 | 233 | 227.280122971016 | 5.71987702898392 |
| 75 | 267 | 278.751213081092 | -11.7512130810916 |
| 76 | 269 | 270.565926630948 | -1.5659266309483 |
| 77 | 270 | 275.634536741208 | -5.63453674120785 |
| 78 | 315 | 299.618595266555 | 15.3814047334445 |
| 79 | 364 | 333.520636813287 | 30.4793631867127 |
| 80 | 347 | 330.201563104207 | 16.7984368957933 |
| 81 | 312 | 298.897647562399 | 13.1023524376011 |
| 82 | 274 | 272.710985777354 | 1.28901422264624 |
| 83 | 237 | 247.53659554364 | -10.5365955436402 |
| 84 | 278 | 271.109952789839 | 6.89004721016096 |
| 85 | 284 | 284.437307658672 | -0.437307658672239 |
| 86 | 277 | 274.422083339494 | 2.57791666050576 |
| 87 | 317 | 312.459730593004 | 4.54026940699589 |
| 88 | 313 | 316.597926811575 | -3.59792681157455 |
| 89 | 318 | 318.70963058687 | -0.709630586870162 |
| 90 | 374 | 360.368584499746 | 13.6314155002536 |
| 91 | 413 | 405.824869710265 | 7.17513028973451 |
| 92 | 405 | 386.873019883061 | 18.126980116939 |
| 93 | 355 | 353.564640637353 | 1.43535936264681 |
| 94 | 306 | 315.946740877587 | -9.94674087758744 |
| 95 | 271 | 279.342602124885 | -8.34260212488471 |
| 96 | 306 | 316.83391044474 | -10.8339104447402 |
| 97 | 315 | 320.372592752746 | -5.3725927527455 |
| 98 | 301 | 311.475546446946 | -10.4755464469461 |
| 99 | 356 | 347.714814000746 | 8.28518599925422 |
| 100 | 348 | 346.655993774083 | 1.3440062259167 |
| 101 | 355 | 352.202179299065 | 2.79782070093495 |
| 102 | 422 | 405.582887635467 | 16.4171123645332 |
| 103 | 465 | 446.965379597209 | 18.034620402791 |
| 104 | 467 | 439.12632237637 | 27.8736776236296 |
| 105 | 404 | 395.949259167776 | 8.05074083222434 |
| 106 | 347 | 351.735857721495 | -4.73585772149539 |
| 107 | 305 | 317.998757010999 | -12.9987570109991 |
| 108 | 336 | 352.790665052808 | -16.7906650528075 |
| 109 | 340 | 359.237140476179 | -19.2371404761793 |
| 110 | 318 | 343.223593245563 | -25.2235932455625 |
| 111 | 362 | 389.947459573453 | -27.9474595734534 |
| 112 | 348 | 374.406789879841 | -26.4067898798411 |
| 113 | 363 | 373.650027638874 | -10.6500276388742 |
| 114 | 435 | 433.308118043726 | 1.69188195627368 |
| 115 | 491 | 471.499333939276 | 19.5006660607241 |
| 116 | 505 | 470.679272945316 | 34.3207270546843 |
| 117 | 404 | 413.504477870092 | -9.50447787009193 |
| 118 | 359 | 354.483041056435 | 4.51695894356527 |
| 119 | 310 | 316.066448406359 | -6.06644840635863 |
| 120 | 337 | 349.025200176063 | -12.0252001760634 |
| 121 | 360 | 354.153856208751 | 5.84614379124918 |
| 122 | 342 | 339.413066656394 | 2.58693334360578 |
| 123 | 406 | 390.777674042406 | 15.2223259575936 |
| 124 | 396 | 387.262984667483 | 8.73701533251727 |
| 125 | 420 | 407.534097462558 | 12.4659025374422 |
| 126 | 472 | 482.867470544423 | -10.867470544423 |
| 127 | 548 | 531.891710015522 | 16.1082899844778 |
| 128 | 559 | 541.901021739745 | 17.0989782602554 |
| 129 | 463 | 447.875390224938 | 15.1246097750618 |
| 130 | 407 | 406.094345030001 | 0.905654969998693 |
| 131 | 362 | 359.380907870101 | 2.61909212989923 |
| 132 | 405 | 390.644236750491 | 14.3557632495089 |
| 133 | 417 | 416.612314574266 | 0.387685425733935 |
| 134 | 391 | 398.878286514509 | -7.87828651450872 |
| 135 | 419 | 457.871953443463 | -38.8719534434628 |
| 136 | 461 | 436.325333374695 | 24.6746666253047 |
| 137 | 472 | 463.747561389847 | 8.25243861015269 |
| 138 | 535 | 520.847393660953 | 14.1526063390472 |
| 139 | 622 | 596.935578762723 | 25.0644212372767 |
| 140 | 606 | 610.560492406651 | -4.56049240665084 |
| 141 | 508 | 510.14372167159 | -2.14372167158962 |
| 142 | 461 | 453.704068818089 | 7.29593118191099 |
| 143 | 390 | 410.234924183382 | -20.2349241833816 |
| 144 | 432 | 444.833325554046 | -12.833325554046 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 145 | 453.497721751322 | 428.415266965021 | 478.580176537623 |
| 146 | 429.390569251949 | 403.49600160324 | 455.285136900659 |
| 147 | 467.036052088739 | 440.301472551841 | 493.770631625637 |
| 148 | 503.25740665386 | 475.655792079981 | 530.859021227739 |
| 149 | 512.339520167 | 483.844695250902 | 540.834345083098 |
| 150 | 571.887965749639 | 542.474571456702 | 601.301360042575 |
| 151 | 652.609534991379 | 622.252994696779 | 682.966075285979 |
| 152 | 637.462256917306 | 606.138741269289 | 668.785772565324 |
| 153 | 539.754768946301 | 507.441160256026 | 572.068377636576 |
| 154 | 490.72498608621 | 457.398842867375 | 524.051129305044 |
| 155 | 424.459265263961 | 390.098787394926 | 458.819743132996 |
| 156 | 469.531518789793 | 434.115513646617 | 504.947523932969 |
