| Structural Time Series Model -- Interpolation | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 112 | 112 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 118 | 116.662660691979 | 4.77318459655681 | 1.3373393080215 | 0.424228086172193 |
| 3 | 132 | 130.365394352839 | 11.0862936337322 | 1.63460564716112 | 0.52904818226706 |
| 4 | 129 | 132.255403850264 | 4.19626456278722 | -3.25540385026373 | -0.555722248070438 |
| 5 | 121 | 123.494626313318 | -5.30231596523095 | -2.49462631331757 | -0.743105140697109 |
| 6 | 135 | 130.681795096133 | 3.82135878950238 | 4.31820490386688 | 0.720130136093354 |
| 7 | 148 | 145.95414617589 | 12.2106077783817 | 2.04585382410984 | 0.661413933687773 |
| 8 | 148 | 150.795462247693 | 6.80932805907052 | -2.79546224769265 | -0.425692617414176 |
| 9 | 136 | 139.990520461142 | -6.09921661108481 | -3.99052046114199 | -1.01743382119269 |
| 10 | 119 | 120.957802643626 | -15.5758529614203 | -1.95780264362581 | -0.746920925721825 |
| 11 | 104 | 103.451987938169 | -16.9899078937452 | 0.548012061831386 | -0.111451576615057 |
| 12 | 118 | 111.320724908025 | 1.22405968147952 | 6.67927509197536 | 1.43557121455783 |
| 13 | 115 | 116.084408332275 | 3.81134582858267 | -1.08440833227487 | 0.204507755216068 |
| 14 | 126 | 126.603292629051 | 8.73193658861958 | -0.603292629051315 | 0.393842491577361 |
| 15 | 141 | 136.885429065906 | 9.82660252825699 | 4.11457093409419 | 0.085910466745844 |
| 16 | 135 | 136.623510513833 | 2.70264247401261 | -1.62351051383314 | -0.570082862043017 |
| 17 | 125 | 132.265782545223 | -2.30644388123072 | -7.26578254522338 | -0.394341927585491 |
| 18 | 149 | 144.775317988906 | 8.12592960099471 | 4.22468201109421 | 0.820765499590697 |
| 19 | 170 | 165.123434644029 | 16.734409840045 | 4.87656535597064 | 0.678999374534414 |
| 20 | 170 | 172.074060152829 | 9.83368022679296 | -2.07406015282946 | -0.543950566449587 |
| 21 | 158 | 162.374910366245 | -3.94679540358159 | -4.37491036624512 | -1.08607975752952 |
| 22 | 133 | 137.890543691972 | -18.4354258576592 | -4.89054369197169 | -1.14202127898744 |
| 23 | 114 | 118.55440232252 | -19.0706500951791 | -4.55440232251979 | -0.0500667858586147 |
| 24 | 140 | 126.410420294526 | -0.0991671928179443 | 13.5895797054736 | 1.49570940097135 |
| 25 | 145 | 144.556713580489 | 12.7565716010625 | 0.443286419510808 | 1.01622753905488 |
| 26 | 150 | 153.059876069626 | 9.75587656101322 | -3.05987606962599 | -0.236842074525383 |
| 27 | 178 | 168.054580499638 | 13.4122460107618 | 9.94541950036212 | 0.28757658204062 |
| 28 | 163 | 166.179349052113 | 2.76495812651563 | -3.17934905211301 | -0.843936935671881 |
| 29 | 172 | 180.701907583316 | 10.991831636677 | -8.7019075833164 | 0.649400425767118 |
| 30 | 178 | 182.663271318504 | 4.69351474125224 | -4.66327131850378 | -0.495508878727709 |
| 31 | 199 | 191.57278141991 | 7.62913307620131 | 7.42721858008951 | 0.231380018920377 |
| 32 | 199 | 196.307186196716 | 5.61137205080319 | 2.6928138032839 | -0.159076903419788 |
| 33 | 184 | 184.834370093769 | -6.30429066619387 | -0.834370093769195 | -0.939119855845862 |
| 34 | 162 | 167.362943994465 | -14.0929320058532 | -5.36294399446519 | -0.613904700038411 |
| 35 | 146 | 156.883810085052 | -11.5736790678564 | -10.8838100850517 | 0.198561325683732 |
| 36 | 166 | 155.255957151393 | -4.64475458305583 | 10.7440428486071 | 0.546454103455683 |
| 37 | 171 | 165.813389343761 | 5.95357048585087 | 5.18661065623948 | 0.836837132980248 |
| 38 | 180 | 181.919670427446 | 13.0291186315214 | -1.91967042744559 | 0.557592856695914 |
| 39 | 193 | 182.266819693389 | 4.23629440934127 | 10.7331803066105 | -0.692294781328485 |
| 40 | 181 | 187.090472914484 | 4.64303253291799 | -6.09047291448359 | 0.0321419755993981 |
| 41 | 183 | 190.410474050316 | 3.72421790674782 | -7.41047405031623 | -0.072530477901964 |
| 42 | 218 | 218.899635162735 | 20.9062887217236 | -0.899635162735379 | 1.35283018926052 |
| 43 | 230 | 227.041135862056 | 12.0647608085218 | 2.95886413794388 | -0.696554742454622 |
| 44 | 242 | 234.341611389065 | 8.76358143975541 | 7.65838861093532 | -0.260227676771173 |
| 45 | 209 | 213.332056274093 | -11.879369430723 | -4.33205627409328 | -1.62704133496431 |
| 46 | 191 | 196.521087801052 | -15.2988629764675 | -5.52108780105165 | -0.269515363096117 |
| 47 | 172 | 184.65955368957 | -12.9163867657265 | -12.6595536895704 | 0.187794396810766 |
| 48 | 194 | 184.923152430632 | -3.78282979235403 | 9.07684756936764 | 0.720342307633649 |
| 49 | 196 | 191.218741128364 | 3.20563176056349 | 4.7812588716363 | 0.551346831749448 |
| 50 | 196 | 193.579365260046 | 2.62011472202206 | 2.42063473995379 | -0.0461303970967936 |
| 51 | 236 | 218.307132024934 | 17.8926385567099 | 17.6928679750664 | 1.20301536108544 |
| 52 | 235 | 241.229495400402 | 21.3648406881194 | -6.22949540040171 | 0.27407021796653 |
| 53 | 229 | 249.142330680336 | 12.0615504033218 | -20.142330680336 | -0.734159647333865 |
| 54 | 243 | 245.706059926222 | 1.34448643978879 | -2.70605992622232 | -0.844275931041253 |
| 55 | 264 | 257.065261040202 | 8.26125951268102 | 6.93473895979823 | 0.544865112955807 |
| 56 | 272 | 257.423242731382 | 2.8034225316185 | 14.5767572686184 | -0.430158923942218 |
| 57 | 237 | 242.918319258219 | -9.15456065058439 | -5.91831925821928 | -0.942527595716623 |
| 58 | 211 | 219.71762162495 | -18.859775211276 | -8.71762162494979 | -0.764957959569833 |
| 59 | 180 | 196.554402038674 | -21.8326820649401 | -16.5544020386742 | -0.234354717904759 |
| 60 | 201 | 189.552400021825 | -11.5865155525555 | 11.4475999781746 | 0.808018098380265 |
| 61 | 204 | 194.89477556606 | 0.11396961632469 | 9.10522443393955 | 0.922657384413557 |
| 62 | 188 | 193.96801015127 | -0.604799911966054 | -5.96801015127003 | -0.056627573640189 |
| 63 | 235 | 213.769823203398 | 13.4610167493086 | 21.230176796602 | 1.10820943957462 |
| 64 | 227 | 229.318245041016 | 14.8991855098083 | -2.31824504101622 | 0.113458600914985 |
| 65 | 234 | 249.227766382786 | 18.3554252898439 | -15.2277663827862 | 0.272673321855143 |
| 66 | 264 | 270.882710863454 | 20.6319762095505 | -6.88271086345406 | 0.179400008010338 |
| 67 | 302 | 293.37361175397 | 21.9134539473499 | 8.62638824603008 | 0.100953005782807 |
| 68 | 293 | 281.873202730559 | -1.1123282140263 | 11.1267972694408 | -1.8145502678973 |
| 69 | 259 | 262.838544116746 | -13.4650232248977 | -3.83854411674623 | -0.973630087414719 |
| 70 | 229 | 237.991720930053 | -21.3106154789348 | -8.99172093005306 | -0.618420447804994 |
| 71 | 203 | 221.812544435891 | -17.7735208048272 | -18.812544435891 | 0.278850456865752 |
| 72 | 229 | 217.879015787941 | -8.23165772859719 | 11.1209842120591 | 0.752399959936671 |
| 73 | 242 | 227.484977467781 | 4.06915928778074 | 14.5150225322193 | 0.969739544903306 |
| 74 | 233 | 242.250760108805 | 11.4403317602053 | -9.25076010880478 | 0.580745840638935 |
| 75 | 267 | 248.062639741772 | 7.56707663813794 | 18.9373602582275 | -0.305200329142554 |
| 76 | 269 | 270.031042669278 | 17.4745675343773 | -1.03104266927836 | 0.781397709786735 |
| 77 | 270 | 289.244359284586 | 18.6718156797042 | -19.2443592845857 | 0.0944370993198884 |
| 78 | 315 | 320.691007381653 | 27.4708742967183 | -5.691007381653 | 0.693514204860775 |
| 79 | 364 | 346.458230900341 | 26.2981469289194 | 17.541769099659 | -0.0923937608939035 |
| 80 | 347 | 338.399552855742 | 2.6597389360885 | 8.60044714425826 | -1.86269968223472 |
| 81 | 312 | 316.241246632203 | -14.4152506879945 | -4.24124663220328 | -1.34581034365627 |
| 82 | 274 | 286.808838870134 | -24.7480933077233 | -12.8088388701336 | -0.81452212606517 |
| 83 | 237 | 259.835954061004 | -26.2790736817799 | -22.8359540610035 | -0.120702775896183 |
| 84 | 278 | 264.010296413785 | -5.31729801318435 | 13.9897035862153 | 1.65275188392807 |
| 85 | 284 | 269.668371511854 | 2.23809332594426 | 14.3316284881456 | 0.595542863900999 |
| 86 | 277 | 281.221902039071 | 8.64661735528513 | -4.22190203907051 | 0.504919188716141 |
| 87 | 317 | 299.733716481587 | 15.4262942303801 | 17.2662835184128 | 0.534254380063846 |
| 88 | 313 | 316.164952707182 | 16.1167838348508 | -3.16495270718163 | 0.0544499609629326 |
| 89 | 318 | 341.787807511363 | 22.6527974428025 | -23.7878075113627 | 0.515484762676384 |
| 90 | 374 | 378.081218560198 | 32.0346741385459 | -4.08121856019835 | 0.739517347770416 |
| 91 | 413 | 390.981708455476 | 18.8801434233096 | 22.0182915445236 | -1.03646640591722 |
| 92 | 405 | 391.716959412459 | 6.41231288045716 | 13.2830405875407 | -0.982429961870696 |
| 93 | 355 | 361.647517720409 | -18.6508146909102 | -6.64751772040885 | -1.97537635872817 |
| 94 | 306 | 321.631712040905 | -33.329598859034 | -15.6317120409046 | -1.15715376896973 |
| 95 | 271 | 299.208981706229 | -25.8346023909536 | -28.2089817062288 | 0.590925951704717 |
| 96 | 306 | 290.647640443221 | -13.9615004471415 | 15.3523595567789 | 0.936088813046964 |
| 97 | 315 | 297.700264803286 | 0.483266163712106 | 17.2997351967144 | 1.13849103382948 |
| 98 | 301 | 305.766995882589 | 5.69289545551232 | -4.76699588258897 | 0.410472518540282 |
| 99 | 356 | 333.322142378532 | 20.6993532899862 | 22.6778576214679 | 1.18259471298689 |
| 100 | 348 | 356.383501595624 | 22.3204232112648 | -8.38350159562428 | 0.127820386185564 |
| 101 | 355 | 384.08800970326 | 26.0176013563954 | -29.08800970326 | 0.291563732180276 |
| 102 | 422 | 420.362725231428 | 33.0633138362695 | 1.63727476857158 | 0.555397411780698 |
| 103 | 465 | 441.582411474594 | 24.93046801643 | 23.4175885254062 | -0.640839883220946 |
| 104 | 467 | 445.923303173761 | 10.7993929994854 | 21.0766968262392 | -1.11347787700111 |
| 105 | 404 | 413.091335432728 | -19.1376659093341 | -9.09133543272796 | -2.35948271291471 |
| 106 | 347 | 369.497691260539 | -35.9184597152968 | -22.4976912605393 | -1.32289021279173 |
| 107 | 305 | 336.359426599933 | -34.0103331576513 | -31.3594265999333 | 0.150444180115352 |
| 108 | 336 | 321.234328622391 | -21.0453303951229 | 14.7656713776089 | 1.0221298478572 |
| 109 | 340 | 319.887574725467 | -7.52238098495136 | 20.1124252745325 | 1.06578525539653 |
| 110 | 318 | 325.785099110543 | 1.68521451577842 | -7.7850991105426 | 0.725496573466243 |
| 111 | 362 | 337.592540246589 | 8.62555362811972 | 24.4074597534108 | 0.546953694815252 |
| 112 | 348 | 357.240233063419 | 16.1821123724581 | -9.2402330634192 | 0.595791749500875 |
| 113 | 363 | 393.310811296777 | 29.8234812295444 | -30.3108112967769 | 1.07570034917403 |
| 114 | 435 | 431.338507543416 | 35.4524332090253 | 3.66149245658433 | 0.443727044162565 |
| 115 | 491 | 463.215771902574 | 33.0001119489105 | 27.7842280974265 | -0.193243447022124 |
| 116 | 505 | 474.716418677173 | 18.2605078837423 | 30.2835813228273 | -1.16143083598959 |
| 117 | 404 | 421.551173574912 | -30.6917992551898 | -17.5511735749115 | -3.85812331343686 |
| 118 | 359 | 381.045712100521 | -37.4178140421566 | -22.0457121005205 | -0.530241025603564 |
| 119 | 310 | 346.0975301111 | -35.7247511126809 | -36.0975301110995 | 0.133488015466359 |
| 120 | 337 | 323.990935445661 | -26.3863191610187 | 13.0090645543386 | 0.736195483328625 |
| 121 | 360 | 333.613484523 | -1.69537031959555 | 26.3865154770001 | 1.9459193826642 |
| 122 | 342 | 348.340460569421 | 9.55953664932815 | -6.34046056942121 | 0.886832445330288 |
| 123 | 406 | 379.535573906621 | 24.3788300117206 | 26.4644260933789 | 1.16789994869316 |
| 124 | 396 | 411.735082815414 | 29.7351664157652 | -15.7350828154141 | 0.422297343302873 |
| 125 | 420 | 453.440291883131 | 37.9365978274668 | -33.4402918831311 | 0.64669521946035 |
| 126 | 472 | 475.781853113635 | 27.2483811539957 | -3.78185311363486 | -0.842552142012568 |
| 127 | 548 | 510.955894935174 | 32.6792161671939 | 37.0441050648258 | 0.427965982724959 |
| 128 | 559 | 513.663290127221 | 12.1518514538695 | 45.3367098727792 | -1.61750229656008 |
| 129 | 463 | 484.876511647224 | -15.8768915200443 | -21.8765116472242 | -2.20904065961301 |
| 130 | 407 | 434.840687326008 | -39.2639975082408 | -27.8406873260078 | -1.84370692809887 |
| 131 | 362 | 399.140219827639 | -36.8235511527545 | -37.1402198276392 | 0.192413435218984 |
| 132 | 405 | 394.181742875682 | -14.9955798851279 | 10.8182571243181 | 1.72076552885499 |
| 133 | 417 | 392.714812663572 | -5.72902794845795 | 24.2851873364283 | 0.73029747567982 |
| 134 | 391 | 400.377184982352 | 3.4391873941442 | -9.37718498235222 | 0.72242702241896 |
| 135 | 419 | 397.703336343659 | -0.743936208446814 | 21.2966636563415 | -0.329674040512217 |
| 136 | 461 | 463.863961086494 | 45.0355881816911 | -2.86396108649443 | 3.60916421647851 |
| 137 | 472 | 506.973754337018 | 43.7174067784311 | -34.9737543370182 | -0.103936003602995 |
| 138 | 535 | 544.916091563137 | 39.7633943888375 | -9.91609156313685 | -0.311694512031414 |
| 139 | 622 | 578.09507851124 | 35.2560028600415 | 43.9049214887597 | -0.355205283669116 |
| 140 | 606 | 560.043255319871 | -1.21956232657295 | 45.9567446801294 | -2.87421682829079 |
| 141 | 508 | 524.076188294391 | -24.987046154215 | -16.0761882943915 | -1.87319018374507 |
| 142 | 461 | 490.500756533696 | -30.8615124947147 | -29.5007565336962 | -0.4631065321272 |
| 143 | 390 | 441.011230966095 | -43.6064594783813 | -51.0112309660946 | -1.00484347003423 |
| 144 | 432 | 417.850761361096 | -29.6143514972878 | 14.1492386389044 | 1.10301852210923 |
| Structural Time Series Model -- Extrapolation | |||
| t | Observed | Level | Seasonal |
| 1 | 464.568485329949 | 481.77376963803 | -17.2052843080805 |
| 2 | 432.933529533179 | 484.480088265429 | -51.5465587322508 |
| 3 | 457.178081801926 | 487.186406892829 | -30.0083250909025 |
| 4 | 484.804115519862 | 489.892725520228 | -5.08861000036673 |
| 5 | 482.891188089342 | 492.599044147628 | -9.70785605828596 |
| 6 | 535.568514148356 | 495.305362775027 | 40.2631513733285 |
| 7 | 618.298928131953 | 498.011681402427 | 120.287246729526 |
| 8 | 606.876894272689 | 500.718000029826 | 106.158894242862 |
| 9 | 516.512068569625 | 503.424318657226 | 13.0877499123993 |
| 10 | 478.373733253327 | 506.130637284626 | -27.7569040312981 |
| 11 | 417.420902885724 | 508.836955912025 | -91.4160530263014 |
| 12 | 464.475823528794 | 511.543274539425 | -47.0674510106303 |
