Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[188])
176	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
177	112.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
178	111.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
179	102.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
180	102.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
181	101.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
182	98.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
183	114	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
184	105.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
185	98.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
186	110	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
187	96.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
188	92.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
189	112	112.4818	101.8918	123.0717	0.4645	0.9999	0.506	0.9999
190	111.4	111.1754	99.1966	123.1543	0.4853	0.4463	0.4528	0.999
191	107.5	102.2276	90.2487	114.2064	0.1942	0.0667	0.5083	0.9496
192	103.4	101.1558	89.177	113.1347	0.3567	0.1496	0.4193	0.9286
193	103.5	101.2244	89.2455	113.2032	0.3548	0.3609	0.469	0.9301
194	107.4	98.4869	86.5081	110.4658	0.0724	0.206	0.4861	0.8482
195	117.6	112.948	100.9691	124.9269	0.2233	0.818	0.4317	0.9997
196	110.2	104.8828	92.904	116.8617	0.1922	0.0187	0.4858	0.981
197	104.3	99.0673	87.0884	111.0462	0.1959	0.0343	0.55	0.8694
198	115.9	109.5063	97.5274	121.4851	0.1477	0.8029	0.4678	0.9977
199	98.9	97.4354	85.4565	109.4143	0.4053	0.0013	0.5608	0.8042
200	101.9	92.2247	80.2458	104.2035	0.0567	0.1374	0.5016	0.5016
201	113.5	111.2752	96.5238	126.0266	0.3838	0.8936	0.4616	0.9944
202	109.5	111.4823	96.0447	126.9198	0.4006	0.3989	0.5042	0.9928
203	110	102.7763	87.3387	118.2138	0.1795	0.1966	0.2743	0.9103
204	114.2	101.2439	85.8064	116.6815	0.05	0.1331	0.3921	0.8746
205	106.9	101.3079	85.8704	116.7455	0.2389	0.0508	0.3904	0.8762
206	109.2	99.1771	83.7395	114.6146	0.1016	0.1634	0.1482	0.8121
207	124.2	112.317	96.8795	127.7546	0.0657	0.6539	0.2512	0.9947
208	104.7	104.9863	89.5487	120.4238	0.4855	0.0074	0.254	0.9477
209	111.9	99.7483	84.3108	115.1859	0.0614	0.2648	0.2817	0.8311
210	119	109.3646	93.927	124.8022	0.1106	0.3738	0.2033	0.9853
211	102.9	97.5484	82.1108	112.986	0.2484	0.0032	0.4319	0.7514
212	106.3	91.8613	76.4238	107.2989	0.0334	0.0805	0.1012	0.4829

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	sMAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE	ScaledE	MASE
189	0.048	-0.0043	0.0043	0.0043	0.2321	0	0	-0.0668	0.0668
190	0.055	0.002	0.0032	0.0032	0.0504	0.1413	0.3758	0.0311	0.049
191	0.0598	0.049	0.0185	0.0189	27.7985	9.3603	3.0595	0.731	0.2763
192	0.0604	0.0217	0.0193	0.0196	5.0363	8.2793	2.8774	0.3111	0.285
193	0.0604	0.022	0.0198	0.0202	5.1786	7.6592	2.7675	0.3155	0.2911
194	0.0621	0.083	0.0303	0.0312	79.4429	19.6231	4.4298	1.2357	0.4485
195	0.0541	0.0396	0.0317	0.0325	21.6409	19.9114	4.4622	0.6449	0.4766
196	0.0583	0.0483	0.0337	0.0346	28.2721	20.9565	4.5778	0.7372	0.5092
197	0.0617	0.0502	0.0356	0.0365	27.381	21.6703	4.6551	0.7254	0.5332
198	0.0558	0.0552	0.0375	0.0385	40.8798	23.5913	4.8571	0.8864	0.5685
199	0.0627	0.0148	0.0355	0.0364	2.1451	21.6416	4.6521	0.2031	0.5353
200	0.0663	0.0949	0.0404	0.0417	93.6124	27.6392	5.2573	1.3414	0.6025
201	0.0676	0.0196	0.0388	0.04	4.9499	25.8938	5.0886	0.3084	0.5798
202	0.0707	-0.0181	0.0373	0.0384	3.9294	24.325	4.932	-0.2748	0.5581
203	0.0766	0.0657	0.0392	0.0404	52.1824	26.1821	5.1168	1.0015	0.5876
204	0.0778	0.1135	0.0439	0.0454	167.8597	35.037	5.9192	1.7962	0.6632
205	0.0777	0.0523	0.0444	0.0459	31.2711	34.8154	5.9005	0.7753	0.6698
206	0.0794	0.0918	0.047	0.0487	100.4593	38.4623	6.2018	1.3896	0.7097
207	0.0701	0.0957	0.0496	0.0514	141.2053	43.8698	6.6234	1.6474	0.7591
208	0.075	-0.0027	0.0472	0.0489	0.082	41.6805	6.456	-0.0397	0.7231
209	0.079	0.1086	0.0501	0.0521	147.6628	46.7272	6.8357	1.6847	0.7689
210	0.072	0.081	0.0515	0.0536	92.8412	48.8233	6.9874	1.3358	0.7947
211	0.0807	0.052	0.0516	0.0535	28.6396	47.9458	6.9243	0.7419	0.7924
212	0.0857	0.1358	0.0551	0.0574	208.475	54.6345	7.3915	2.0017	0.8428