Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.0488170816392544 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 94.34 | 93.91 | 0.430000000000007 |
4 | 94.3 | 94.0809913451049 | 0.21900865489512 |
5 | 94.4 | 94.0516827084906 | 0.348317291509417 |
6 | 94.54 | 94.1686865421466 | 0.371313457853418 |
7 | 94.09 | 94.3268129815324 | -0.236812981532367 |
8 | 95.87 | 93.8652524628797 | 2.00474753712034 |
9 | 98.46 | 95.7431183870654 | 2.71688161293463 |
10 | 98.7 | 98.4657486185682 | 0.234251381431832 |
11 | 98.75 | 98.7171840873796 | 0.0328159126203502 |
12 | 98.72 | 98.7687860644651 | -0.048786064465105 |
13 | 98.72 | 98.7364044711732 | -0.0164044711732458 |
14 | 98.67 | 98.7356036527647 | -0.0656036527647359 |
15 | 98.82 | 98.6824010738919 | 0.137598926108112 |
16 | 99.39 | 98.8391182519012 | 0.550881748098831 |
17 | 99.33 | 99.4360106911717 | -0.10601069117169 |
18 | 99.22 | 99.3708355586061 | -0.150835558606133 |
19 | 99.05 | 99.2534722068276 | -0.203472206827556 |
20 | 98.83 | 99.0735392874955 | -0.243539287495537 |
21 | 98.84 | 98.8416504102155 | -0.00165041021548973 |
22 | 98.89 | 98.8515698420053 | 0.0384301579947248 |
23 | 98.8 | 98.9034458901655 | -0.103445890165517 |
24 | 99.4 | 98.8083959637001 | 0.591604036299955 |
25 | 98.89 | 99.4372763462382 | -0.54727634623822 |
26 | 98.85 | 98.9005599121647 | -0.0505599121646867 |
27 | 98.69 | 98.8580917248049 | -0.168091724804853 |
28 | 98.48 | 98.6898859773522 | -0.209885977352172 |
29 | 98.39 | 98.4696399564608 | -0.0796399564608379 |
30 | 98.35 | 98.3757521662045 | -0.0257521662045548 |
31 | 98.26 | 98.3344950206045 | -0.0744950206045445 |
32 | 98.06 | 98.240858391102 | -0.180858391101978 |
33 | 98.14 | 98.0320294122584 | 0.10797058774159 |
34 | 98.17 | 98.1173002212548 | 0.0526997787451648 |
35 | 98.41 | 98.1498728706562 | 0.260127129343786 |
36 | 98.64 | 98.402571517966 | 0.237428482034034 |
37 | 99.25 | 98.6441620835569 | 0.605837916443093 |
38 | 99.61 | 99.2837373225841 | 0.32626267741594 |
39 | 100.28 | 99.6596645143433 | 0.620335485656682 |
40 | 100.31 | 100.35994748239 | -0.0499474823903512 |
41 | 100.55 | 100.387509192065 | 0.162490807935171 |
42 | 100.45 | 100.635441519101 | -0.185441519101417 |
43 | 100.78 | 100.526388805324 | 0.253611194675855 |
44 | 100.68 | 100.868769363719 | -0.18876936371926 |
45 | 101.69 | 100.75955419428 | 0.930445805720396 |
46 | 98.09 | 101.814975843138 | -3.72497584313834 |
47 | 99.13 | 98.0331333932996 | 1.09686660670039 |
48 | 99.18 | 99.1266792199863 | 0.0533207800137347 |
49 | 96.22 | 99.1792821848573 | -2.95928218485729 |
50 | 96.11 | 96.0748186648455 | 0.0351813351544905 |
51 | 96 | 95.9665361149559 | 0.0334638850440854 |
52 | 95.96 | 95.8581697241641 | 0.101830275835908 |
53 | 97.95 | 95.8231407810529 | 2.1268592189471 |
54 | 98.43 | 97.9169678411795 | 0.51303215882055 |
55 | 98.32 | 98.4220125739602 | -0.102012573960167 |
56 | 97.45 | 98.3070326178089 | -0.857032617808898 |
57 | 96.42 | 97.3951947865378 | -0.975194786537841 |
58 | 95.36 | 96.3175886230292 | -0.957588623029238 |
59 | 95.1 | 95.210841941042 | -0.110841941042011 |
60 | 95.54 | 94.9454309609571 | 0.594569039042909 |
61 | 94.07 | 95.4144560862762 | -1.34445608627624 |
62 | 93.48 | 93.8788236637521 | -0.398823663752083 |
63 | 92.86 | 93.269354256399 | -0.409354256399041 |
64 | 90.98 | 92.629370776245 | -1.64937077624502 |
65 | 91.45 | 90.6688533084077 | 0.781146691592326 |
66 | 91.16 | 91.1769866102234 | -0.016986610223384 |
67 | 90.71 | 90.8861573734853 | -0.176157373485324 |
68 | 90.31 | 90.4275578846025 | -0.117557884602519 |
69 | 89.78 | 90.0218190517526 | -0.241819051752557 |
70 | 91.02 | 89.4800141513612 | 1.53998584863878 |
71 | 90.77 | 90.7951917662575 | -0.025191766257521 |
72 | 90.69 | 90.5439619777475 | 0.146038022252512 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 90.4710911278022 | 88.7238889937461 | 92.2182932618584 |
74 | 90.2521822556045 | 87.7202354064639 | 92.784129104745 |
75 | 90.0332733834067 | 86.8570069358205 | 93.2095398309929 |
76 | 89.8143645112089 | 86.0592338487668 | 93.569495173651 |
77 | 89.5954556390111 | 85.2986756839843 | 93.8922355940379 |
78 | 89.3765467668133 | 84.5612426733028 | 94.1918508603239 |
79 | 89.1576378946156 | 83.8387975339369 | 94.4764782552943 |
80 | 88.9387290224178 | 83.1261912214799 | 94.7512668233556 |
81 | 88.71982015022 | 82.4199549036441 | 95.0196853967959 |
82 | 88.5009112780222 | 81.7176427448866 | 95.2841798111579 |
83 | 88.2820024058245 | 81.0174697169746 | 95.5465350946743 |
84 | 88.0630935336267 | 80.3180976261759 | 95.8080894410775 |