Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.553887318200034 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | 0.971049904474777 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 94.36 | 92.7513060897437 | 1.60869391025635 |
14 | 94.72 | 93.977671956456 | 0.74232804354402 |
15 | 95.57 | 95.2125020900083 | 0.357497909991707 |
16 | 95.87 | 95.7066796929248 | 0.163320307075253 |
17 | 95.93 | 95.822471450774 | 0.107528549226018 |
18 | 96.09 | 96.0069441948238 | 0.0830558051762438 |
19 | 95.82 | 95.8832784629695 | -0.0632784629694783 |
20 | 96.06 | 95.2735600357712 | 0.786439964228791 |
21 | 97.09 | 97.6769898694389 | -0.586989869438924 |
22 | 97.67 | 97.6213610024672 | 0.0486389975328336 |
23 | 98.53 | 98.126548903993 | 0.403451096007046 |
24 | 98.12 | 98.3203460605409 | -0.200346060540852 |
25 | 98.84 | 98.7632567609808 | 0.0767432390192226 |
26 | 98.98 | 98.7657868978544 | 0.214213102145635 |
27 | 100.04 | 99.5413933429017 | 0.498606657098321 |
28 | 99.47 | 100.02961200481 | -0.559612004809651 |
29 | 99.84 | 99.7208118632902 | 0.119188136709838 |
30 | 99.52 | 99.9011411691093 | -0.381141169109327 |
31 | 99.81 | 99.4569709550184 | 0.353029044981639 |
32 | 99.55 | 99.4459360257519 | 0.104063974248135 |
33 | 100.21 | 100.876439838793 | -0.666439838793423 |
34 | 101.44 | 101.052157590001 | 0.387842409999081 |
35 | 101 | 101.898929736829 | -0.898929736829089 |
36 | 101.32 | 101.109791140978 | 0.210208859021776 |
37 | 101.84 | 101.900137445692 | -0.0601374456924759 |
38 | 101.81 | 101.886402732568 | -0.0764027325680274 |
39 | 101.83 | 102.624239379672 | -0.794239379671922 |
40 | 102.18 | 101.937949151282 | 0.242050848718492 |
41 | 101.97 | 102.367234542289 | -0.397234542288643 |
42 | 101.8 | 102.04478238234 | -0.244782382340333 |
43 | 101.69 | 101.994180402267 | -0.30418040226705 |
44 | 101.91 | 101.511274404461 | 0.398725595539318 |
45 | 102.27 | 102.77120709073 | -0.501207090730347 |
46 | 102.73 | 103.49515778677 | -0.765157786769947 |
47 | 102.61 | 103.145871041831 | -0.535871041831072 |
48 | 102.89 | 103.038302316147 | -0.148302316147436 |
49 | 102.93 | 103.512960436302 | -0.582960436302074 |
50 | 103.01 | 103.202594614525 | -0.192594614524566 |
51 | 102.54 | 103.56510888371 | -1.02510888371043 |
52 | 103.08 | 103.199861484559 | -0.119861484559053 |
53 | 103.72 | 103.151751277509 | 0.568248722490708 |
54 | 103.83 | 103.430109975407 | 0.399890024592992 |
55 | 103.69 | 103.710852781674 | -0.020852781674165 |
56 | 103.57 | 103.689375605242 | -0.119375605242013 |
57 | 103.95 | 104.272489857664 | -0.322489857664138 |
58 | 104.52 | 104.981086934264 | -0.461086934263662 |
59 | 104.58 | 104.899547663647 | -0.319547663647455 |
60 | 104.75 | 105.079691585432 | -0.329691585432073 |
61 | 108.4 | 105.265587601712 | 3.13441239828815 |
62 | 107.23 | 107.183333017228 | 0.0466669827723223 |
63 | 107.76 | 107.317728003369 | 0.442271996631092 |
64 | 107.25 | 108.157395335273 | -0.907395335272966 |
65 | 108.1 | 107.971167858906 | 0.128832141094279 |
66 | 108.49 | 107.933206688121 | 0.556793311878806 |
67 | 107.19 | 108.118591429091 | -0.928591429090758 |
68 | 106.83 | 107.551649469309 | -0.721649469308815 |
69 | 107.24 | 107.713183244017 | -0.473183244016653 |
70 | 108.49 | 108.27827323335 | 0.21172676664952 |
71 | 109.3 | 108.630711422423 | 0.669288577576836 |
72 | 109.15 | 109.354164874645 | -0.204164874645258 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 111.110230342922 | 109.836389082937 | 112.384071602906 |
74 | 109.954260339703 | 108.498069127485 | 111.410451551921 |
75 | 110.23418224894 | 108.616061691798 | 111.852302806081 |
76 | 110.244207977748 | 108.478950084876 | 112.00946587062 |
77 | 111.009466605837 | 109.108425649084 | 112.910507562589 |
78 | 111.085538730974 | 109.057786771253 | 113.113290690695 |
79 | 110.319057498326 | 108.172059757048 | 112.466055239605 |
80 | 110.356097331168 | 108.096137023561 | 112.616057638774 |
81 | 111.024978586733 | 108.657439382652 | 113.392517790814 |
82 | 112.148860199719 | 109.678422349102 | 114.619298050336 |
83 | 112.58224033142 | 110.013021682752 | 115.151458980088 |
84 | 112.556605321795 | 109.892265674609 | 115.220944968981 |