Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999927022282636 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 3.66 | 3.65 | 0.0100000000000002 |
3 | 3.36 | 3.65999927022283 | -0.299999270222826 |
4 | 3.19 | 3.36002189326195 | -0.170021893261952 |
5 | 2.81 | 3.19001240780967 | -0.380012407809672 |
6 | 2.25 | 2.81002773243809 | -0.560027732438092 |
7 | 2.32 | 2.25004086954557 | 0.0699591304544258 |
8 | 2.85 | 2.31999489454235 | 0.53000510545765 |
9 | 2.75 | 2.84996132143721 | -0.0999613214372124 |
10 | 2.78 | 2.75000729494906 | 0.0299927050509363 |
11 | 2.26 | 2.77999781120085 | -0.519997811200848 |
12 | 2.23 | 2.2600379482533 | -0.0300379482532955 |
13 | 1.46 | 2.2300021921009 | -0.770002192100898 |
14 | 1.19 | 1.46005619300235 | -0.270056193002345 |
15 | 1.11 | 1.19001970808453 | -0.0800197080845253 |
16 | 1 | 1.11000583965564 | -0.11000583965564 |
17 | 1.18 | 1.00000802797507 | 0.179991972024925 |
18 | 1.59 | 1.17998686459674 | 0.410013135403262 |
19 | 1.51 | 1.58997007817729 | -0.079970078177289 |
20 | 1.01 | 1.51000583603376 | -0.500005836033763 |
21 | 0.9 | 1.01003648928458 | -0.110036489284583 |
22 | 0.63 | 0.900008030211815 | -0.270008030211815 |
23 | 0.81 | 0.630019704569715 | 0.179980295430285 |
24 | 0.97 | 0.809986865448869 | 0.160013134551131 |
25 | 1.14 | 0.969988322606692 | 0.170011677393308 |
26 | 0.97 | 1.13998759293586 | -0.169987592935859 |
27 | 0.89 | 0.970012405306513 | -0.0800124053065128 |
28 | 0.62 | 0.8900058391227 | -0.2700058391227 |
29 | 0.36 | 0.620019704409814 | -0.260019704409814 |
30 | 0.27 | 0.360018975644498 | -0.0900189756444976 |
31 | 0.34 | 0.270006569379362 | 0.069993430620638 |
32 | 0.02 | 0.339994892039203 | -0.319994892039203 |
33 | -0.12 | 0.0200233524967893 | -0.140023352496789 |
34 | 0.09 | -0.119989781415357 | 0.209989781415357 |
35 | -0.11 | 0.0899846754250824 | -0.199984675425082 |
36 | -0.38 | -0.10998540557488 | -0.27001459442512 |
37 | -0.65 | -0.379980294951244 | -0.270019705048756 |
38 | -0.4 | -0.649980294578282 | 0.249980294578282 |
39 | -0.4 | -0.400018242991284 | 1.82429912844451e-05 |
40 | 0.29 | -0.400000001331332 | 0.690000001331332 |
41 | 0.56 | 0.289949645374921 | 0.270050354625079 |
42 | 0.63 | 0.559980292341546 | 0.0700197076584539 |
43 | 0.46 | 0.629994890121565 | -0.169994890121564 |
44 | 0.91 | 0.460012405839045 | 0.449987594160955 |
45 | 1.06 | 0.909967160932536 | 0.150032839067464 |
46 | 1.28 | 1.05998905094588 | 0.220010949054125 |
47 | 1.52 | 1.27998394410314 | 0.240016055896857 |
48 | 1.5 | 1.51998248417611 | -0.0199824841761098 |
49 | 1.74 | 1.50000145827608 | 0.239998541723918 |
50 | 1.39 | 1.73998248545425 | -0.349982485454254 |
51 | 2.24 | 1.39002554092291 | 0.849974459077094 |
52 | 2.04 | 2.23993797080416 | -0.199937970804159 |
53 | 2.2 | 2.04001459101672 | 0.159985408983276 |
54 | 2.16 | 2.19998832463004 | -0.0399883246300408 |
55 | 2.28 | 2.16000291825665 | 0.119997081743347 |
56 | 2.16 | 2.27999124288688 | -0.119991242886884 |
57 | 1.87 | 2.16000875668701 | -0.29000875668701 |
58 | 1.81 | 1.87002116417708 | -0.0600211641770789 |
59 | 1.77 | 1.81000438020756 | -0.0400043802075554 |
60 | 2.03 | 1.77000291942835 | 0.259997080571648 |
61 | 2.65 | 2.02998102600654 | 0.620018973993462 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
62 | 2.64995475243056 | 2.05160245162742 | 3.24830705323369 |
63 | 2.64995475243056 | 1.80378768979128 | 3.49612181506983 |
64 | 2.64995475243056 | 1.61362858759886 | 3.68628091726225 |
65 | 2.64995475243056 | 1.45331564980439 | 3.84659385505672 |
66 | 2.64995475243056 | 1.31207644557558 | 3.98783305928553 |
67 | 2.64995475243056 | 1.18438606213579 | 4.11552344272532 |
68 | 2.64995475243056 | 1.0669623936393 | 4.23294711122181 |
69 | 2.64995475243056 | 0.957666942981267 | 4.34224256187984 |
70 | 2.64995475243056 | 0.855014293242605 | 4.44489521161851 |
71 | 2.64995475243056 | 0.757922914947625 | 4.54198658991348 |
72 | 2.64995475243056 | 0.665576336888748 | 4.63433316797236 |
73 | 2.64995475243056 | 0.577340239770907 | 4.7225692650902 |