Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.0594162856861059 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 100.27 | 99.97 | 0.299999999999997 |
4 | 100.18 | 99.9878248857058 | 0.192175114294173 |
5 | 100.16 | 99.9092432171985 | 0.250756782801488 |
6 | 100.18 | 99.9041422538432 | 0.275857746156845 |
7 | 100.18 | 99.9405326964975 | 0.239467303502465 |
8 | 100.59 | 99.9547609542149 | 0.63523904578507 |
9 | 100.69 | 100.402504498838 | 0.287495501161729 |
10 | 101.06 | 100.519586413669 | 0.540413586331255 |
11 | 101.15 | 100.921695781703 | 0.22830421829714 |
12 | 101.16 | 101.025260770361 | 0.134739229639436 |
13 | 101.16 | 101.043266474922 | 0.116733525078061 |
14 | 100.81 | 101.050202347397 | -0.240202347397116 |
15 | 100.94 | 100.685930416102 | 0.2540695838983 |
16 | 101.13 | 100.831026287083 | 0.298973712917245 |
17 | 101.29 | 101.038790194622 | 0.25120980537794 |
18 | 101.34 | 101.213716148186 | 0.126283851814435 |
19 | 101.35 | 101.271219465603 | 0.078780534397481 |
20 | 101.7 | 101.285900312341 | 0.414099687659231 |
21 | 102.05 | 101.660504577685 | 0.389495422314724 |
22 | 102.48 | 102.033646948971 | 0.446353051029064 |
23 | 102.66 | 102.490167589368 | 0.169832410632239 |
24 | 102.72 | 102.680258400397 | 0.0397415996033601 |
25 | 102.73 | 102.742619698632 | -0.0126196986322924 |
26 | 102.18 | 102.751869883013 | -0.571869883013079 |
27 | 102.22 | 102.167891498669 | 0.0521085013312899 |
28 | 102.37 | 102.21098759227 | 0.159012407729534 |
29 | 102.53 | 102.370435518916 | 0.159564481084232 |
30 | 102.61 | 102.539916247709 | 0.0700837522907705 |
31 | 102.62 | 102.624080363957 | -0.00408036395728573 |
32 | 103 | 102.633837923887 | 0.366162076113298 |
33 | 103.17 | 103.035593914408 | 0.134406085591536 |
34 | 103.52 | 103.213579824788 | 0.306420175212068 |
35 | 103.69 | 103.581786173458 | 0.108213826541686 |
36 | 103.73 | 103.758215837091 | -0.0282158370912953 |
37 | 99.57 | 103.796539356854 | -4.22653935685382 |
38 | 99.09 | 99.3854140869634 | -0.295414086963405 |
39 | 99.14 | 98.8878616791767 | 0.252138320823306 |
40 | 99.36 | 98.9528428016792 | 0.407157198320846 |
41 | 99.6 | 99.1970345700937 | 0.40296542990626 |
42 | 99.65 | 99.4609772791987 | 0.189022720801347 |
43 | 99.8 | 99.522208307179 | 0.277791692821026 |
44 | 100.15 | 99.6887136577608 | 0.461286342239163 |
45 | 100.45 | 100.066121578854 | 0.383878421145567 |
46 | 100.89 | 100.388930208794 | 0.501069791206049 |
47 | 101.13 | 100.858701914657 | 0.271298085343076 |
48 | 101.17 | 101.114821439202 | 0.0551785607982538 |
49 | 101.21 | 101.158099944334 | 0.0519000556660956 |
50 | 101.1 | 101.201183652868 | -0.101183652868471 |
51 | 101.17 | 101.085171696043 | 0.0848283039571243 |
52 | 101.11 | 101.160211878785 | -0.0502118787850634 |
53 | 101.2 | 101.09722847545 | 0.102771524549667 |
54 | 101.15 | 101.193334777713 | -0.043334777713369 |
55 | 100.92 | 101.140759986181 | -0.22075998618061 |
56 | 101.1 | 100.897643247774 | 0.202356752226351 |
57 | 101.22 | 101.089666534374 | 0.130333465625569 |
58 | 101.25 | 101.217410464803 | 0.0325895351974879 |
59 | 101.39 | 101.249346813936 | 0.14065318606383 |
60 | 101.43 | 101.397703903822 | 0.0322960961780012 |
61 | 101.95 | 101.439622817899 | 0.510377182100925 |
62 | 101.92 | 101.989947534358 | -0.0699475343584481 |
63 | 102.05 | 101.955791511674 | 0.0942084883260321 |
64 | 102.07 | 102.09138903013 | -0.0213890301304076 |
65 | 102.1 | 102.110118173406 | -0.0101181734056155 |
66 | 102.16 | 102.139516989124 | 0.0204830108760632 |
67 | 101.63 | 102.20073401355 | -0.570734013549853 |
68 | 101.43 | 101.63682311835 | -0.206823118349988 |
69 | 101.4 | 101.424534456864 | -0.0245344568636341 |
70 | 101.6 | 101.393076710565 | 0.206923289434528 |
71 | 101.72 | 101.605371323846 | 0.114628676154396 |
72 | 101.73 | 101.732182134016 | -0.00218213401582545 |
73 | 102.67 | 101.742052479718 | 0.92794752028226 |
74 | 102.59 | 102.737187674685 | -0.147187674684531 |
75 | 102.69 | 102.648442329756 | 0.0415576702439893 |
76 | 102.93 | 102.750911532164 | 0.179088467836337 |
77 | 103.02 | 103.001552303732 | 0.018447696268268 |
78 | 103.06 | 103.092648397323 | -0.0326483973234417 |
79 | 102.47 | 103.130708550821 | -0.660708550820885 |
80 | 102.4 | 102.50145170281 | -0.101451702810053 |
81 | 102.42 | 102.425423819453 | -0.00542381945255954 |
82 | 102.51 | 102.445101556246 | 0.0648984437535489 |
83 | 102.61 | 102.538957580721 | 0.0710424192788963 |
84 | 102.78 | 102.643178657401 | 0.136821342599191 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
85 | 102.821308073381 | 101.761642679007 | 103.880973467755 |
86 | 102.862616146761 | 101.318860457986 | 104.406371835536 |
87 | 102.903924220142 | 100.95743997747 | 104.850408462814 |
88 | 102.945232293523 | 100.632727837252 | 105.257736749793 |
89 | 102.986540366903 | 100.328018642764 | 105.645062091042 |
90 | 103.027848440284 | 100.035038411145 | 106.020658469422 |
91 | 103.069156513664 | 99.7490469567597 | 106.389266070569 |
92 | 103.110464587045 | 99.4670715493768 | 106.753857624713 |
93 | 103.151772660426 | 99.1871293961523 | 107.116415924699 |
94 | 103.193080733806 | 98.9078379286549 | 107.478323538958 |
95 | 103.234388807187 | 98.6282005612954 | 107.840577053079 |
96 | 103.275696880568 | 98.3474804428888 | 108.203913318246 |