Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.889472739292855 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 99.36 | 98.6684134083128 | 0.691586591687184 |
14 | 99.58 | 99.4964020599412 | 0.0835979400588229 |
15 | 99.77 | 99.7728461515372 | -0.00284615153718448 |
16 | 99.77 | 99.7928133308214 | -0.0228133308214353 |
17 | 100.03 | 100.059239049778 | -0.0292390497776438 |
18 | 100.2 | 100.227047142364 | -0.0270471423641823 |
19 | 100.24 | 99.9419003762269 | 0.298099623773098 |
20 | 100.1 | 100.419482135146 | -0.319482135145776 |
21 | 100.03 | 100.184623549256 | -0.154623549256357 |
22 | 100.18 | 100.341646644197 | -0.16164664419729 |
23 | 100.29 | 100.264159987714 | 0.0258400122861389 |
24 | 100.41 | 100.355949177163 | 0.0540508228369987 |
25 | 100.6 | 100.401979516437 | 0.198020483562885 |
26 | 100.75 | 100.72423660552 | 0.0257633944801938 |
27 | 100.79 | 100.940699388648 | -0.150699388648064 |
28 | 100.44 | 100.826059136724 | -0.386059136724214 |
29 | 100.29 | 100.769962360798 | -0.479962360797728 |
30 | 100.34 | 100.537381187755 | -0.197381187754829 |
31 | 100.46 | 100.136042817997 | 0.323957182003156 |
32 | 100.12 | 100.56833469334 | -0.448334693339973 |
33 | 100.06 | 100.237036577793 | -0.17703657779326 |
34 | 100.28 | 100.373415079674 | -0.0934150796737185 |
35 | 100.28 | 100.377319450506 | -0.0973194505056938 |
36 | 100.4 | 100.362676602047 | 0.0373233979532728 |
37 | 100.61 | 100.409715533611 | 0.200284466388766 |
38 | 100.89 | 100.714944055447 | 0.175055944552938 |
39 | 100.73 | 101.04475399319 | -0.314753993189541 |
40 | 101.12 | 100.758060299645 | 0.361939700354782 |
41 | 101.16 | 101.357771494658 | -0.197771494658056 |
42 | 101.33 | 101.408448463789 | -0.078448463789087 |
43 | 101.37 | 101.167689437586 | 0.202310562413729 |
44 | 101.61 | 101.405806798913 | 0.204193201087193 |
45 | 101.85 | 101.684748084462 | 0.165251915537837 |
46 | 102.27 | 102.13830766107 | 0.131692338929938 |
47 | 102.28 | 102.341616802276 | -0.0616168022764043 |
48 | 102.23 | 102.373228796341 | -0.143228796341376 |
49 | 102.42 | 102.276283448696 | 0.143716551303655 |
50 | 102.53 | 102.52870671055 | 0.001293289449535 |
51 | 103.47 | 102.649953405578 | 0.820046594421825 |
52 | 103.53 | 103.446303553862 | 0.0836964461380774 |
53 | 103.77 | 103.739234057987 | 0.0307659420133319 |
54 | 103.74 | 104.009816642358 | -0.269816642357625 |
55 | 103.93 | 103.623914437502 | 0.306085562498438 |
56 | 103.97 | 103.953322853031 | 0.0166771469694282 |
57 | 103.68 | 104.060847260529 | -0.38084726052908 |
58 | 103.86 | 104.028559789978 | -0.168559789977635 |
59 | 103.97 | 103.942786783778 | 0.0272132162217957 |
60 | 104.05 | 104.043900577846 | 0.00609942215366743 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
61 | 104.110696705569 | 103.606666517023 | 104.614726894115 |
62 | 104.219596172098 | 103.545022162154 | 104.894170182042 |
63 | 104.431261593241 | 103.620793863526 | 105.241729322956 |
64 | 104.415691908925 | 103.490247738639 | 105.341136079211 |
65 | 104.62923842788 | 103.600114675249 | 105.658362180511 |
66 | 104.840024271688 | 103.716590687681 | 105.963457855695 |
67 | 104.755685432591 | 103.547913751499 | 105.963457113682 |
68 | 104.780211035808 | 103.492761967502 | 106.067660104113 |
69 | 104.828381980538 | 103.46575378891 | 106.191010172166 |
70 | 105.160765227094 | 103.7235635244 | 106.597966929787 |
71 | 105.246307215713 | 103.741062658035 | 106.751551773392 |
72 | 105.320497679244 | 100.331962354945 | 110.309033003542 |