| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.397744939363288 |
| beta | 0.0238591415702091 |
| gamma | 0.272304466403946 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 2513 | 2426.15398030827 | 86.8460196917304 |
| 14 | 2466 | 2418.82659393979 | 47.1734060602107 |
| 15 | 2544 | 2511.37837530594 | 32.6216246940608 |
| 16 | 2537 | 2514.27851264813 | 22.721487351871 |
| 17 | 2564 | 2546.558951268 | 17.4410487320001 |
| 18 | 2582 | 2565.78818915786 | 16.2118108421414 |
| 19 | 2716 | 2903.03193362023 | -187.031933620229 |
| 20 | 2904 | 2762.19593594007 | 141.804064059928 |
| 21 | 2851 | 2810.39580562333 | 40.6041943766718 |
| 22 | 2932 | 2855.02530521293 | 76.9746947870658 |
| 23 | 2772 | 2747.60070543616 | 24.3992945638415 |
| 24 | 2811 | 2713.44822593069 | 97.5517740693144 |
| 25 | 2935 | 2828.12933360847 | 106.870666391532 |
| 26 | 2783 | 2815.89168461258 | -32.8916846125844 |
| 27 | 3003 | 2885.47260614347 | 117.527393856526 |
| 28 | 2995 | 2920.01117151548 | 74.9888284845197 |
| 29 | 3127 | 2977.63613955838 | 149.363860441618 |
| 30 | 2985 | 3053.9328130428 | -68.9328130428021 |
| 31 | 3287 | 3377.3348608544 | -90.3348608544038 |
| 32 | 3236 | 3328.85965602057 | -92.8596560205665 |
| 33 | 3252 | 3264.29202413751 | -12.2920241375082 |
| 34 | 3228 | 3299.60588636155 | -71.6058863615472 |
| 35 | 2856 | 3105.24953591629 | -249.249535916285 |
| 36 | 3176 | 2969.0434675386 | 206.956532461396 |
| 37 | 3362 | 3134.90884541064 | 227.091154589363 |
| 38 | 3036 | 3137.73271454327 | -101.732714543272 |
| 39 | 3330 | 3214.56332601358 | 115.43667398642 |
| 40 | 3251 | 3237.87240672643 | 13.1275932735707 |
| 41 | 3318 | 3284.62980190486 | 33.3701980951414 |
| 42 | 3238 | 3274.90474284606 | -36.9047428460631 |
| 43 | 3597 | 3633.08783101289 | -36.0878310128896 |
| 44 | 3708 | 3602.39448388034 | 105.605516119665 |
| 45 | 3902 | 3627.68900138282 | 274.310998617177 |
| 46 | 3745 | 3772.89586312448 | -27.8958631244823 |
| 47 | 3426 | 3536.68112372207 | -110.681123722069 |
| 48 | 3526 | 3538.76134270811 | -12.7613427081128 |
| 49 | 3483 | 3632.9209258201 | -149.920925820104 |
| 50 | 3458 | 3416.45173503308 | 41.548264966917 |
| 51 | 3824 | 3602.3918610673 | 221.6081389327 |
| 52 | 3696 | 3646.14195345315 | 49.8580465468526 |
| 53 | 3518 | 3716.78591413501 | -198.785914135014 |
| 54 | 3814 | 3598.28673569387 | 215.713264306126 |
| 55 | 3996 | 4106.71291994136 | -110.712919941361 |
| 56 | 4136 | 4070.11591350043 | 65.8840864995668 |
| 57 | 4037 | 4106.66065858751 | -69.6606585875134 |
| 58 | 3915 | 4061.52663469624 | -146.526634696239 |
| 59 | 3760 | 3745.29512256319 | 14.7048774368118 |
| 60 | 3955 | 3815.747538424 | 139.252461576001 |
| 61 | 4160 | 3953.3222983632 | 206.677701636795 |
| 62 | 4115 | 3893.8538174567 | 221.146182543303 |
| 63 | 4202 | 4213.39993698089 | -11.399936980888 |
| 64 | 4018 | 4127.33770916606 | -109.337709166065 |
| 65 | 4233 | 4093.57943097285 | 139.420569027149 |
| 66 | 4029 | 4182.74743694785 | -153.747436947851 |
| 67 | 4401 | 4529.39323079242 | -128.393230792417 |
| 68 | 4645 | 4517.53171844363 | 127.468281556374 |
| 69 | 4491 | 4554.27987768886 | -63.2798776888567 |
| 70 | 4379 | 4494.74621688756 | -115.746216887565 |
| 71 | 4394 | 4189.6841016767 | 204.315898323295 |
| 72 | 4472 | 4368.45337189896 | 103.546628101039 |
| 73 | 4614 | 4515.1986482464 | 98.801351753601 |
| 74 | 4160 | 4397.52193848647 | -237.521938486474 |
| 75 | 4328 | 4506.6922753823 | -178.692275382303 |
| 76 | 4202 | 4328.06194728928 | -126.061947289282 |
| 77 | 4635 | 4326.22911399546 | 308.770886004543 |
| 78 | 4542 | 4429.93306478157 | 112.066935218428 |
| 79 | 4920 | 4922.58070034819 | -2.58070034819411 |
| 80 | 4774 | 5010.21551573882 | -236.215515738822 |
| 81 | 4698 | 4864.52837529273 | -166.528375292732 |
| 82 | 4916 | 4748.64846879785 | 167.351531202154 |
| 83 | 4703 | 4588.33209615424 | 114.667903845762 |
| 84 | 4616 | 4718.50491514975 | -102.504915149751 |
| 85 | 4873 | 4784.36832830497 | 88.6316716950287 |
| 86 | 4375 | 4591.22450330516 | -216.224503305158 |
| 87 | 4801 | 4726.35872265338 | 74.6412773466236 |
| 88 | 4427 | 4647.20946948351 | -220.209469483511 |
| 89 | 4684 | 4683.79463268236 | 0.205367317642413 |
| 90 | 4648 | 4625.54654067616 | 22.4534593238395 |
| 91 | 5225 | 5071.5167869921 | 153.483213007898 |
| 92 | 5174 | 5179.64106174088 | -5.64106174088101 |
| 93 | 5181 | 5131.31225755458 | 49.687742445416 |
| 94 | 5266 | 5154.92362605327 | 111.07637394673 |
| 95 | 4839 | 4944.39141794217 | -105.39141794217 |
| 96 | 5032 | 4950.62019445251 | 81.3798055474908 |
| 97 | 5221 | 5128.43468388342 | 92.5653161165756 |
| 98 | 4658 | 4865.23354630024 | -207.233546300245 |
| 99 | 5014 | 5068.63470057676 | -54.6347005767557 |
| 100 | 4980 | 4877.18219408425 | 102.817805915747 |
| 101 | 4952 | 5092.23390353819 | -140.233903538192 |
| 102 | 4946 | 4976.4922916841 | -30.4922916841033 |
| 103 | 5365 | 5453.12020389934 | -88.1202038993433 |
| 104 | 5456 | 5436.58277218141 | 19.4172278185897 |
| 105 | 5397 | 5402.06494854283 | -5.06494854283028 |
| 106 | 5436 | 5410.78323811885 | 25.2167618811454 |
| 107 | 4995 | 5115.08029324659 | -120.080293246593 |
| 108 | 5019 | 5144.79480857164 | -125.79480857164 |
| 109 | 5249 | 5239.04322232411 | 9.95677767589132 |
| 110 | 4799 | 4883.10405617411 | -84.1040561741138 |
| 111 | 5137 | 5161.81068215016 | -24.8106821501606 |
| 112 | 4979 | 4999.81196876191 | -20.8119687619055 |
| 113 | 4951 | 5121.25502722972 | -170.255027229724 |
| 114 | 5265 | 5005.25853265457 | 259.741467345434 |
| 115 | 5612 | 5598.09444609101 | 13.9055539089895 |
| 116 | 5572 | 5637.80355307504 | -65.8035530750358 |
| 117 | 5403 | 5560.09880709269 | -157.098807092688 |
| 118 | 5373 | 5508.59150521651 | -135.591505216514 |
| 119 | 5252 | 5117.32121457344 | 134.678785426559 |
| 120 | 5437 | 5245.23365101096 | 191.766348989042 |
| 121 | 5296 | 5494.76178333773 | -198.761783337728 |
| 122 | 5011 | 5025.25172504168 | -14.2517250416768 |
| 123 | 5294 | 5351.33571289622 | -57.3357128962152 |
| 124 | 5335 | 5169.23416497921 | 165.765835020789 |
| 125 | 5398 | 5344.15405483457 | 53.8459451654344 |
| 126 | 5396 | 5389.19115736444 | 6.80884263555618 |
| 127 | 5724 | 5860.66178905235 | -136.661789052349 |
| 128 | 5898 | 5825.50924703353 | 72.4907529664652 |
| 129 | 5718 | 5783.05053931487 | -65.0505393148696 |
| 130 | 5625 | 5771.520655151 | -146.520655150995 |
| 131 | 5380 | 5404.16124200936 | -24.161242009357 |
| 132 | 5488 | 5479.02216879976 | 8.97783120023905 |
| 133 | 5678 | 5590.39979341667 | 87.6002065833318 |
| 134 | 5224 | 5247.68557014407 | -23.6855701440709 |
| 135 | 5596 | 5575.91527604049 | 20.0847239595114 |
| 136 | 5184 | 5454.09030441304 | -270.090304413045 |
| 137 | 5620 | 5434.51139387097 | 185.488606129032 |
| 138 | 5531 | 5521.43815698537 | 9.56184301463327 |
| 139 | 5816 | 5977.8134894893 | -161.813489489298 |
| 140 | 6086 | 5964.54972627131 | 121.450273728689 |
| 141 | 6175 | 5913.51736047099 | 261.482639529011 |
| 142 | 6112 | 6017.82147455381 | 94.1785254461929 |
| 143 | 5813 | 5749.09607054731 | 63.903929452692 |
| 144 | 5740 | 5873.00132840477 | -133.001328404767 |
| 145 | 5821 | 5949.14353302212 | -128.143533022121 |
| 146 | 5294 | 5483.52960871041 | -189.529608710411 |
| 147 | 5881 | 5762.28585130314 | 118.714148696859 |
| 148 | 5589 | 5622.83017835836 | -33.8301783583647 |
| 149 | 5845 | 5781.65902228207 | 63.3409777179286 |
| 150 | 5706 | 5790.04647187597 | -84.0464718759695 |
| 151 | 6355 | 6197.24965405008 | 157.750345949918 |
| 152 | 6404 | 6365.06199189074 | 38.9380081092622 |
| 153 | 6426 | 6299.73988643233 | 126.260113567669 |
| 154 | 6375 | 6320.96139593243 | 54.0386040675721 |
| 155 | 5869 | 6016.55576751575 | -147.555767515752 |
| 156 | 5994 | 6023.34890557996 | -29.3489055799637 |
| 157 | 6105 | 6144.45340783418 | -39.453407834184 |
| 158 | 5792 | 5684.5866098555 | 107.413390144497 |
| 159 | 6011 | 6159.975367519 | -148.975367518998 |
| 160 | 5968 | 5878.70101287911 | 89.2989871208938 |
| 161 | 6255 | 6113.40530385795 | 141.594696142047 |
| 162 | 6208 | 6127.3580143847 | 80.6419856153025 |
| 163 | 6897 | 6677.04743433618 | 219.952565663822 |
| 164 | 6814 | 6859.8085464679 | -45.8085464678952 |
| 165 | 6897 | 6772.62896349728 | 124.371036502717 |
| 166 | 6596 | 6780.64333805522 | -184.643338055224 |
| 167 | 6188 | 6328.22089699377 | -140.22089699377 |
| 168 | 6406 | 6362.62134942594 | 43.37865057406 |
| 169 | 6548 | 6520.20968947128 | 27.7903105287232 |
| 170 | 5842 | 6084.5050173328 | -242.5050173328 |
| 171 | 6555 | 6393.50751014317 | 161.492489856834 |
| 172 | 6424 | 6264.31859343547 | 159.681406564527 |
| 173 | 6596 | 6551.01891658859 | 44.9810834114105 |
| 174 | 6645 | 6514.09313508171 | 130.906864918288 |
| 175 | 7203 | 7141.83152736281 | 61.1684726371896 |
| 176 | 7128 | 7220.48123749582 | -92.4812374958155 |
| 177 | 7133 | 7139.91583614324 | -6.91583614323918 |
| 178 | 6778 | 7039.1865542068 | -261.186554206796 |
| 179 | 6593 | 6547.04968967465 | 45.9503103253473 |
| 180 | 6591 | 6691.24807806008 | -100.248078060078 |
| 181 | 6120 | 6793.22968082843 | -673.229680828427 |
| 182 | 5612 | 6027.8303865355 | -415.830386535496 |
| 183 | 6070 | 6318.38103323749 | -248.381033237492 |
| 184 | 5983 | 6021.9539285815 | -38.9539285815017 |
| 185 | 6145 | 6186.19845451933 | -41.1984545193282 |
| 186 | 6303 | 6117.52431626522 | 185.475683734781 |
| 187 | 6588 | 6707.0920541054 | -119.092054105399 |
| 188 | 6640 | 6670.87587646113 | -30.8758764611293 |
| 189 | 6719 | 6615.778456379 | 103.221543621003 |
| 190 | 6575 | 6512.01907022318 | 62.9809297768234 |
| 191 | 6487 | 6205.78716503087 | 281.212834969135 |
| 192 | 6510 | 6406.57984946486 | 103.420150535137 |
| 193 | 6365 | 6482.52768051927 | -117.527680519265 |
| 194 | 5844 | 5974.32617547945 | -130.326175479447 |
| 195 | 5974 | 6415.74049090333 | -441.74049090333 |
| 196 | 5880 | 6073.29916901872 | -193.299169018723 |
| 197 | 6279 | 6172.38624913211 | 106.613750867892 |
| 198 | 6342 | 6197.24040202899 | 144.759597971013 |
| 199 | 6598 | 6720.51389375184 | -122.51389375184 |
| 200 | 6801 | 6694.99632761664 | 106.003672383362 |
| 201 | 6529 | 6714.67190611774 | -185.671906117738 |
| 202 | 6369 | 6486.35498578622 | -117.354985786224 |
| 203 | 6028 | 6143.15714468573 | -115.157144685727 |
| 204 | 6187 | 6145.99608032075 | 41.0039196792522 |
| 205 | 6164 | 6151.82233518828 | 12.1776648117184 |
| 206 | 5866 | 5704.38667834887 | 161.61332165113 |
| 207 | 6198 | 6193.77343327267 | 4.22656672732592 |
| 208 | 5898 | 6067.22475901804 | -169.224759018041 |
| 209 | 6462 | 6225.20677854992 | 236.793221450082 |
| 210 | 6063 | 6307.80866494699 | -244.808664946985 |
| 211 | 6496 | 6623.94176589846 | -127.941765898465 |
| 212 | 6678 | 6629.19022529651 | 48.8097747034872 |
| 213 | 6554 | 6574.87850450631 | -20.878504506305 |
| 214 | 6513 | 6421.47126958157 | 91.5287304184267 |
| 215 | 6210 | 6159.12811705342 | 50.8718829465788 |
| 216 | 5928 | 6255.64818273071 | -327.648182730709 |
| 217 | 6268 | 6107.66674354819 | 160.333256451807 |
| 218 | 5582 | 5741.36940883944 | -159.369408839439 |
| 219 | 5869 | 6064.90032878286 | -195.900328782857 |
| 220 | 5764 | 5829.3492755742 | -65.3492755742009 |
| 221 | 6082 | 6081.12966294461 | 0.870337055393065 |
| 222 | 6062 | 5987.00297200681 | 74.9970279931913 |
| 223 | 6810 | 6433.85136208081 | 376.148637919195 |
| 224 | 6727 | 6668.85946287724 | 58.1405371227593 |
| 225 | 6537 | 6606.34630939124 | -69.3463093912396 |
| 226 | 6175 | 6451.24607835682 | -276.246078356821 |
| 227 | 6014 | 6038.48023861495 | -24.4802386149495 |
| 228 | 6109 | 6037.13976290519 | 71.8602370948083 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 229 | 6127.03881218374 | 5966.40181380736 | 6287.67581056013 |
| 230 | 5647.7252767557 | 5454.54064191361 | 5840.90991159779 |
| 231 | 6027.35586487237 | 5792.90307783835 | 6261.8086519064 |
| 232 | 5890.63674634706 | 5630.08297899303 | 6151.19051370109 |
| 233 | 6186.08179440486 | 5887.29628394868 | 6484.86730486104 |
| 234 | 6104.18475338943 | 5782.35114288782 | 6426.01836389104 |
| 235 | 6576.24087865142 | 6207.72213896707 | 6944.75961833576 |
| 236 | 6606.80938343444 | 6212.63039018806 | 7000.98837668082 |
| 237 | 6498.94190779232 | 6086.97315175407 | 6910.91066383058 |
| 238 | 6336.30530209667 | 5910.47581604169 | 6762.13478815165 |
| 239 | 6073.46554160671 | 5640.82808694173 | 6506.10299627169 |
| 240 | 6098.4758928405 | 5661.36914006754 | 6535.58264561345 |
