| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.753544580924858 |
| beta | 0.086765385215168 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 203089 | 210227.258547009 | -7138.25854700859 |
| 14 | 198480 | 200072.263667562 | -1592.26366756187 |
| 15 | 192684 | 192560.026785031 | 123.97321496933 |
| 16 | 187827 | 187034.448136977 | 792.551863022585 |
| 17 | 182414 | 181409.241603752 | 1004.75839624775 |
| 18 | 182510 | 181346.134851009 | 1163.86514899074 |
| 19 | 211524 | 214857.225812063 | -3333.22581206344 |
| 20 | 211451 | 212014.834993264 | -563.834993264347 |
| 21 | 200140 | 193254.647525756 | 6885.3524742444 |
| 22 | 191568 | 189914.80517052 | 1653.19482948002 |
| 23 | 186424 | 183275.720608516 | 3148.27939148387 |
| 24 | 191987 | 189888.255082186 | 2098.74491781372 |
| 25 | 203583 | 193458.333643394 | 10124.666356606 |
| 26 | 201920 | 199084.663214775 | 2835.33678522531 |
| 27 | 195978 | 197027.380525724 | -1049.3805257238 |
| 28 | 191395 | 192401.270613101 | -1006.2706131009 |
| 29 | 188222 | 186974.128992236 | 1247.87100776445 |
| 30 | 189422 | 188650.584631171 | 771.415368828719 |
| 31 | 214419 | 222249.109239975 | -7830.10923997458 |
| 32 | 224325 | 217898.128778295 | 6426.87122170455 |
| 33 | 216222 | 207896.187293913 | 8325.81270608693 |
| 34 | 210506 | 206101.026488636 | 4404.97351136446 |
| 35 | 207221 | 203832.641339879 | 3388.3586601209 |
| 36 | 210027 | 212311.759357519 | -2284.75935751927 |
| 37 | 215191 | 216214.439967828 | -1023.43996782796 |
| 38 | 215177 | 212572.53489553 | 2604.46510446951 |
| 39 | 211701 | 210297.63095205 | 1403.36904795023 |
| 40 | 210176 | 208604.526999765 | 1571.47300023539 |
| 41 | 205491 | 206918.037632046 | -1427.03763204647 |
| 42 | 206996 | 207529.177622448 | -533.177622447954 |
| 43 | 235980 | 239007.216877197 | -3027.21687719697 |
| 44 | 241292 | 243085.636718967 | -1793.63671896691 |
| 45 | 236675 | 228116.20729348 | 8558.79270651977 |
| 46 | 229127 | 226304.554690734 | 2822.44530926552 |
| 47 | 225436 | 223263.905001037 | 2172.09499896324 |
| 48 | 229570 | 230019.613451481 | -449.613451480953 |
| 49 | 239973 | 236327.272064997 | 3645.72793500341 |
| 50 | 236168 | 238114.442382039 | -1946.44238203909 |
| 51 | 230703 | 232833.196937143 | -2130.19693714319 |
| 52 | 224790 | 229006.780272974 | -4216.78027297353 |
| 53 | 217811 | 222329.096302992 | -4518.09630299205 |
| 54 | 219576 | 220738.695587273 | -1162.6955872727 |
| 55 | 245472 | 250993.94977989 | -5521.9497798896 |
| 56 | 248511 | 253199.644361988 | -4688.64436198823 |
| 57 | 242084 | 238113.974442297 | 3970.02555770261 |
| 58 | 235572 | 230644.570940866 | 4927.42905913357 |
| 59 | 229827 | 228381.308787464 | 1445.69121253633 |
| 60 | 229697 | 233247.482711636 | -3550.48271163637 |
| 61 | 239567 | 237329.054791354 | 2237.94520864569 |
| 62 | 237201 | 235686.371933323 | 1514.62806667731 |
| 63 | 233164 | 232203.394886533 | 960.605113466707 |
| 64 | 227755 | 229629.351950596 | -1874.35195059585 |
| 65 | 220189 | 224233.249221881 | -4044.24922188101 |
| 66 | 221270 | 223448.569010673 | -2178.56901067292 |
| 67 | 245413 | 251419.234970644 | -6006.23497064449 |
| 68 | 247826 | 252988.987873203 | -5162.98787320332 |
| 69 | 237736 | 239172.457929423 | -1436.45792942299 |
| 70 | 230079 | 227004.103745961 | 3074.89625403934 |
| 71 | 225939 | 221504.779213964 | 4434.2207860357 |
| 72 | 228987 | 226605.000905538 | 2381.99909446223 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 236184.818639621 | 228692.956449237 | 243676.680830005 |
| 74 | 232132.425170159 | 222448.950374333 | 241815.899965984 |
| 75 | 226727.483909838 | 214994.547759778 | 238460.420059898 |
| 76 | 222024.003296611 | 208302.334835881 | 235745.671757341 |
| 77 | 216921.185116278 | 201233.077053727 | 232609.29317883 |
| 78 | 219323.913150713 | 201670.604539119 | 236977.221762307 |
| 79 | 247815.396423656 | 228185.527271408 | 267445.265575903 |
| 80 | 254334.152583254 | 232708.381496347 | 275959.923670161 |
| 81 | 245879.366632889 | 222233.102488853 | 269525.630776926 |
| 82 | 236551.992082363 | 210857.106831412 | 262246.877333314 |
| 83 | 229516.264303647 | 201742.21523082 | 257290.313376474 |
| 84 | 230925.060672515 | 201039.651255597 | 260810.470089433 |
