Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.848082601775169 |
beta | 0.0746158879217505 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 93.75 | 91.5310576923077 | 2.21894230769226 |
14 | 94.1 | 93.8636576906362 | 0.236342309363778 |
15 | 94.96 | 95.0548049685703 | -0.0948049685703012 |
16 | 95.21 | 95.3974460350161 | -0.187446035016151 |
17 | 95.33 | 95.5659081579091 | -0.235908157909137 |
18 | 95.43 | 95.6700086930242 | -0.240008693024237 |
19 | 95.44 | 94.9046104474915 | 0.535389552508448 |
20 | 95.64 | 95.8690269812821 | -0.229026981282075 |
21 | 95.8 | 96.2589955582746 | -0.458995558274594 |
22 | 95.87 | 96.9390530136154 | -1.06905301361542 |
23 | 95.98 | 96.3740812138023 | -0.394081213802295 |
24 | 96.07 | 96.1841036229279 | -0.114103622927914 |
25 | 96.23 | 97.4660289042405 | -1.23602890424051 |
26 | 96.32 | 96.3466317165677 | -0.0266317165677208 |
27 | 96.55 | 97.0271023763242 | -0.477102376324183 |
28 | 96.73 | 96.7699120368107 | -0.0399120368107333 |
29 | 96.61 | 96.8039311169582 | -0.193931116958197 |
30 | 96.64 | 96.6934632128488 | -0.0534632128488397 |
31 | 96.86 | 95.9663266122261 | 0.893673387773873 |
32 | 97.02 | 96.9034008043502 | 0.116599195649755 |
33 | 97.22 | 97.3583556182423 | -0.138355618242272 |
34 | 98.1 | 98.0447570395119 | 0.0552429604880729 |
35 | 98.46 | 98.4340601468626 | 0.0259398531374018 |
36 | 98.6 | 98.5676467913811 | 0.0323532086189289 |
37 | 98.78 | 99.7374256548839 | -0.957425654883906 |
38 | 99.13 | 98.9897517063354 | 0.140248293664641 |
39 | 99.48 | 99.70559250499 | -0.225592504990004 |
40 | 99.62 | 99.7063122210881 | -0.0863122210880647 |
41 | 99.68 | 99.6528378010398 | 0.0271621989602409 |
42 | 99.95 | 99.7404615583061 | 0.209538441693866 |
43 | 100.12 | 99.3861482209829 | 0.733851779017087 |
44 | 100.25 | 100.065405424409 | 0.184594575591106 |
45 | 100.47 | 100.539372668924 | -0.0693726689235774 |
46 | 100.7 | 101.318132396729 | -0.618132396729422 |
47 | 100.88 | 101.09373851591 | -0.213738515909895 |
48 | 100.95 | 100.971698042695 | -0.0216980426948936 |
49 | 100.92 | 101.888517600623 | -0.968517600622704 |
50 | 101.12 | 101.240735883099 | -0.12073588309913 |
51 | 101.19 | 101.60569111408 | -0.415691114079621 |
52 | 101.28 | 101.38034923688 | -0.100349236880348 |
53 | 101.28 | 101.245319369471 | 0.0346806305291523 |
54 | 101.3 | 101.280611634522 | 0.019388365477738 |
55 | 101.3 | 100.746240996582 | 0.553759003417952 |
56 | 101.36 | 101.079479928278 | 0.280520071721952 |
57 | 101.45 | 101.492445084622 | -0.0424450846221447 |
58 | 101.58 | 102.108606677883 | -0.528606677883033 |
59 | 101.73 | 101.925168894215 | -0.195168894214916 |
60 | 101.84 | 101.752822803244 | 0.0871771967561443 |
61 | 102.01 | 102.529800386465 | -0.519800386465121 |
62 | 102.14 | 102.331416938069 | -0.191416938069338 |
63 | 102.16 | 102.527203450665 | -0.367203450664974 |
64 | 102.32 | 102.329540841137 | -0.00954084113679698 |
65 | 102.41 | 102.236435581693 | 0.173564418307009 |
66 | 102.4 | 102.340376437703 | 0.0596235622969346 |
67 | 102.43 | 101.877041695975 | 0.552958304025097 |
68 | 102.42 | 102.12377408105 | 0.296225918950299 |
69 | 102.3 | 102.457671199971 | -0.157671199971389 |
70 | 102.65 | 102.851639699376 | -0.201639699375889 |
71 | 102.72 | 102.966227109382 | -0.246227109381948 |
72 | 102.86 | 102.760316919136 | 0.0996830808637839 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 103.423325648816 | 102.459055174694 | 104.387596122937 |
74 | 103.716191797904 | 102.4115432585 | 105.020840337309 |
75 | 104.060252377321 | 102.452344014484 | 105.668160740157 |
76 | 104.264222314882 | 102.370271742375 | 106.158172887389 |
77 | 104.243507616207 | 102.07219626982 | 106.414818962593 |
78 | 104.208440943017 | 101.763967865454 | 106.65291402058 |
79 | 103.791212653477 | 101.075137818137 | 106.507287488816 |
80 | 103.516723190262 | 100.528934482244 | 106.50451189828 |
81 | 103.498430671187 | 100.237701928585 | 106.759159413789 |
82 | 103.997404573819 | 100.461740425956 | 107.533068721683 |
83 | 104.266952131301 | 100.453812321007 | 108.080091941594 |
84 | 104.328720633584 | 100.235171877307 | 108.422269389861 |