Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.912480497339331 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 98.82 | 98.62 | 0.199999999999989 |
4 | 99.39 | 98.7524960994679 | 0.637503900532138 |
5 | 99.33 | 99.2842059756812 | 0.0457940243187949 |
6 | 99.22 | 99.2759921297668 | -0.0559921297667927 |
7 | 99.05 | 99.1749004033501 | -0.124900403350111 |
8 | 98.83 | 99.0109312211833 | -0.180931221183315 |
9 | 98.84 | 98.7958350104937 | 0.0441649895062568 |
10 | 98.89 | 98.7861347020834 | 0.103865297916599 |
11 | 98.8 | 98.8309097607826 | -0.0309097607826487 |
12 | 99.4 | 98.7527052068911 | 0.647294793108941 |
13 | 98.89 | 99.2933490816323 | -0.403349081632285 |
14 | 98.85 | 98.8753009110231 | -0.0253009110231091 |
15 | 98.69 | 98.8022143231496 | -0.112214323149601 |
16 | 98.48 | 98.6498209417535 | -0.169820941753457 |
17 | 98.39 | 98.4448626443636 | -0.054862644363638 |
18 | 98.35 | 98.3448015513494 | 0.00519844865063135 |
19 | 98.26 | 98.2995450343595 | -0.0395450343594774 |
20 | 98.06 | 98.2134609617399 | -0.153460961739853 |
21 | 98.14 | 98.0234308270493 | 0.11656917295069 |
22 | 98.17 | 98.0797979239578 | 0.0902020760422033 |
23 | 98.41 | 98.1121055591658 | 0.29789444083417 |
24 | 98.64 | 98.3339284266928 | 0.306071573307179 |
25 | 99.25 | 98.5632127681256 | 0.686787231874419 |
26 | 99.61 | 99.1398927230326 | 0.470107276967354 |
27 | 100.28 | 99.5188564449227 | 0.761143555077339 |
28 | 100.31 | 100.163385094606 | 0.146614905393733 |
29 | 100.55 | 100.247168336397 | 0.302831663602703 |
30 | 100.45 | 100.473496323412 | -0.0234963234115924 |
31 | 100.78 | 100.402056386539 | 0.377943613460658 |
32 | 100.68 | 100.696922562916 | -0.016922562916136 |
33 | 101.69 | 100.63148105429 | 1.05851894570982 |
34 | 98.09 | 101.547358948315 | -3.45735894831458 |
35 | 99.13 | 98.3425863356759 | 0.787413664324077 |
36 | 99.18 | 99.0110859477101 | 0.168914052289864 |
37 | 96.22 | 99.1152167261512 | -2.8952167261512 |
38 | 96.11 | 96.4233879279676 | -0.313387927967611 |
39 | 96 | 96.0874275555956 | -0.0874275555955819 |
40 | 95.96 | 95.9576516161846 | 0.00234838381541635 |
41 | 97.95 | 95.9097944706164 | 2.04020552938358 |
42 | 98.43 | 97.7214422267428 | 0.708557773257198 |
43 | 98.32 | 98.3179873760782 | 0.00201262392180013 |
44 | 97.45 | 98.2698238561553 | -0.819823856155324 |
45 | 96.42 | 97.4717505761601 | -1.05175057616006 |
46 | 95.36 | 96.4620486873486 | -1.1020486873486 |
47 | 95.1 | 95.4064507530246 | -0.306450753024606 |
48 | 95.54 | 95.0768204174947 | 0.463179582505319 |
49 | 94.07 | 95.4494627532966 | -1.37946275329658 |
50 | 93.48 | 94.1407298941074 | -0.660729894107433 |
51 | 92.86 | 93.4878267517253 | -0.627826751725323 |
52 | 90.98 | 92.8649470850681 | -1.88494708506806 |
53 | 91.45 | 91.0949696314268 | 0.355030368573154 |
54 | 91.16 | 91.3689279187131 | -0.208927918713059 |
55 | 90.71 | 91.1282852675377 | -0.418285267537698 |
56 | 90.31 | 90.6966081185852 | -0.386608118585187 |
57 | 89.78 | 90.2938357502632 | -0.513835750263169 |
58 | 91.02 | 89.7749706493123 | 1.24502935068769 |
59 | 90.77 | 90.8610356504299 | -0.0910356504298733 |
60 | 90.69 | 90.72796739485 | -0.0379673948500141 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
61 | 90.6433228875146 | 88.9780954835408 | 92.3085502914883 |
62 | 90.5933228875146 | 88.339032608947 | 92.8476131660822 |
63 | 90.5433228875146 | 87.8247447640935 | 93.2619010109357 |
64 | 90.4933228875146 | 87.3789193545338 | 93.6077264204954 |
65 | 90.4433228875146 | 86.9780160151954 | 93.9086297598338 |
66 | 90.3933228875146 | 86.6095160646916 | 94.1771297103376 |
67 | 90.3433228875146 | 86.265819187266 | 94.4208265877632 |
68 | 90.2933228875146 | 85.9419002720197 | 94.6447455030095 |
69 | 90.2433228875146 | 85.6342317480664 | 94.8524140269628 |
70 | 90.1933228875146 | 85.3402245488407 | 95.0464212261885 |
71 | 90.1433228875146 | 85.0579118089548 | 95.2287339660744 |
72 | 90.0933228875146 | 84.7857577027017 | 95.4008880723275 |