Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.958205043210276 |
beta | 0.0373725776280312 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 93.01 | 92.1187847222222 | 0.891215277777789 |
14 | 93.21 | 93.1864280066297 | 0.0235719933703393 |
15 | 93.58 | 93.5506185805894 | 0.0293814194105977 |
16 | 94.07 | 94.0135112752459 | 0.0564887247541037 |
17 | 94.57 | 94.4994012212856 | 0.0705987787144409 |
18 | 95.03 | 94.9625896762757 | 0.0674103237243173 |
19 | 95.21 | 95.2405536079047 | -0.0305536079047073 |
20 | 95.89 | 95.5868871967296 | 0.303112803270395 |
21 | 96.43 | 96.0525462725297 | 0.377453727470339 |
22 | 96.35 | 96.3479560383846 | 0.00204396161541354 |
23 | 96.71 | 96.5766361354698 | 0.133363864530182 |
24 | 96.32 | 96.6605067981235 | -0.340506798123556 |
25 | 97.23 | 96.6170334225411 | 0.612966577458948 |
26 | 97.88 | 97.4285389893056 | 0.451461010694359 |
27 | 98.2 | 98.265045445335 | -0.0650454453350306 |
28 | 98.56 | 98.6972769716971 | -0.137276971697091 |
29 | 99.31 | 99.0498366959864 | 0.260163304013631 |
30 | 99.69 | 99.7530693084297 | -0.0630693084297036 |
31 | 99.77 | 99.9557757819209 | -0.185775781920952 |
32 | 101.06 | 100.215624857741 | 0.844375142258585 |
33 | 101.77 | 101.270718820875 | 0.49928117912502 |
34 | 101.91 | 101.739224252275 | 0.170775747725315 |
35 | 102.52 | 102.213165114549 | 0.306834885450897 |
36 | 102.09 | 102.527755887568 | -0.437755887567874 |
37 | 102.22 | 102.511770482203 | -0.291770482202779 |
38 | 102.74 | 102.498025307037 | 0.241974692963424 |
39 | 103.56 | 103.153134712392 | 0.406865287607644 |
40 | 104.4 | 104.092355132841 | 0.307644867158785 |
41 | 104.76 | 104.961605684069 | -0.201605684069406 |
42 | 104.86 | 105.266076687229 | -0.406076687229202 |
43 | 104.84 | 105.179917208286 | -0.339917208285883 |
44 | 104.96 | 105.37453636912 | -0.414536369120185 |
45 | 104.83 | 105.203243482626 | -0.373243482626435 |
46 | 104.58 | 104.785047584322 | -0.205047584322031 |
47 | 104.8 | 104.854186835933 | -0.0541868359330095 |
48 | 104.17 | 104.728423849609 | -0.558423849609341 |
49 | 104.63 | 104.535293270952 | 0.0947067290478998 |
50 | 105.32 | 104.860398365875 | 0.459601634125463 |
51 | 106.16 | 105.684941949395 | 0.47505805060527 |
52 | 107.22 | 106.641811479637 | 0.578188520362957 |
53 | 107.51 | 107.715155921035 | -0.205155921035001 |
54 | 107.87 | 107.973693778444 | -0.103693778443926 |
55 | 107.79 | 108.156887337282 | -0.366887337282336 |
56 | 108.04 | 108.298422140637 | -0.258422140637421 |
57 | 107.74 | 108.259912333341 | -0.519912333341395 |
58 | 107.71 | 107.684422848219 | 0.0255771517811638 |
59 | 111.19 | 107.965327417243 | 3.22467258275704 |
60 | 110.82 | 111.062201709469 | -0.242201709468659 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
61 | 111.312590658519 | 110.177132029354 | 112.448049287685 |
62 | 111.672022864703 | 110.07103945119 | 113.273006278215 |
63 | 112.150186047897 | 110.167644995067 | 114.132727100726 |
64 | 112.732516984662 | 110.409902851325 | 115.055131118 |
65 | 113.274747242335 | 110.636820640737 | 115.912673843934 |
66 | 113.797102718342 | 110.860074158441 | 116.734131278243 |
67 | 114.135364925398 | 110.910417927764 | 117.360311923031 |
68 | 114.712833686893 | 111.207922476973 | 118.217744896814 |
69 | 115.000117919724 | 111.220990795145 | 118.779245044302 |
70 | 115.053329745524 | 111.004158528245 | 119.102500962802 |
71 | 115.550236262696 | 111.234026529011 | 119.866445996381 |
72 | 115.403641775496 | 110.822512516776 | 119.984771034216 |