Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999957558403617 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 92.97 | 92.94 | 0.0300000000000011 |
3 | 93.37 | 92.9699987267521 | 0.400001273247895 |
4 | 92.6 | 93.3699830233074 | -0.769983023307418 |
5 | 92.84 | 92.6000326793087 | 0.239967320691321 |
6 | 92.55 | 92.8399898154038 | -0.289989815403842 |
7 | 92.93 | 92.5500123076307 | 0.379987692369312 |
8 | 92.44 | 92.9299838727157 | -0.489983872715726 |
9 | 93.36 | 92.4400207956977 | 0.919979204302251 |
10 | 93.24 | 93.3599609546139 | -0.11996095461393 |
11 | 92.65 | 93.2400050913344 | -0.590005091334419 |
12 | 92.06 | 92.650025040758 | -0.590025040757951 |
13 | 92.88 | 92.0600250416046 | 0.819974958395349 |
14 | 91.69 | 92.8799651989538 | -1.18996519895377 |
15 | 91.66 | 91.6900505040227 | -0.0300505040226824 |
16 | 90.26 | 91.6600012753914 | -1.40000127539135 |
17 | 91.11 | 90.2600594182891 | 0.849940581710925 |
18 | 92.33 | 91.1099639271649 | 1.22003607283511 |
19 | 91.82 | 92.3299482197214 | -0.509948219721423 |
20 | 92.24 | 91.8200216430165 | 0.419978356983478 |
21 | 93.35 | 92.2399821754481 | 1.11001782455192 |
22 | 93.53 | 93.3499528890715 | 0.180047110928498 |
23 | 93.34 | 93.5299923585132 | -0.18999235851318 |
24 | 92.59 | 93.340008063579 | -0.750008063579003 |
25 | 92.42 | 92.5900318315395 | -0.170031831539518 |
26 | 92.64 | 92.4200072164224 | 0.219992783577638 |
27 | 94.44 | 92.6399906631551 | 1.80000933684492 |
28 | 93.59 | 94.4399236047302 | -0.849923604730236 |
29 | 93.39 | 93.5900360721146 | -0.200036072114585 |
30 | 93.33 | 93.3900084898502 | -0.0600084898502331 |
31 | 93.72 | 93.3300025468561 | 0.389997453143891 |
32 | 95.43 | 93.7199834478855 | 1.71001655211451 |
33 | 97.06 | 95.4299274241677 | 1.6300725758323 |
34 | 97.7 | 97.0599308171177 | 0.640069182882343 |
35 | 97.59 | 97.6999728344421 | -0.10997283444209 |
36 | 96.97 | 97.5900046674227 | -0.620004667422663 |
37 | 97.75 | 96.9700263139879 | 0.779973686012141 |
38 | 99.27 | 97.7499668966716 | 1.52003310332836 |
39 | 100.63 | 99.2699354873685 | 1.36006451263147 |
40 | 99.8 | 100.629942276691 | -0.8299422766909 |
41 | 99.5 | 99.8000352240751 | -0.300035224075131 |
42 | 99.72 | 99.5000127339739 | 0.219987266026109 |
43 | 99.77 | 99.7199906633892 | 0.0500093366107563 |
44 | 100.18 | 99.7699978775239 | 0.410002122476101 |
45 | 101.11 | 100.179982598855 | 0.930017401144582 |
46 | 100.67 | 101.109960528577 | -0.439960528576833 |
47 | 101.13 | 100.670018672627 | 0.459981327372816 |
48 | 100.46 | 101.129980477658 | -0.669980477658157 |
49 | 101.6 | 100.460028435041 | 1.13997156495898 |
50 | 102.3 | 101.599951617787 | 0.700048382213055 |
51 | 103.26 | 102.299970288829 | 0.960029711170904 |
52 | 104.56 | 103.259959254806 | 1.30004074519351 |
53 | 104.61 | 104.559944824195 | 0.0500551758045731 |
54 | 104.62 | 104.609997875578 | 0.0100021244215753 |
55 | 105.03 | 104.619999575494 | 0.410000424506123 |
56 | 104.93 | 105.029982598927 | -0.0999825989274683 |
57 | 104.73 | 104.930004243421 | -0.200004243421105 |
58 | 104.33 | 104.730008488499 | -0.400008488499381 |
59 | 104.6 | 104.330016976999 | 0.269983023001188 |
60 | 104.41 | 104.599988541489 | -0.189988541489498 |
61 | 104.63 | 104.410008063417 | 0.219991936583014 |
62 | 105.55 | 104.629990663191 | 0.920009336808974 |
63 | 106.12 | 105.549960953335 | 0.570039046664945 |
64 | 106.62 | 106.119975806633 | 0.500024193367139 |
65 | 106.72 | 106.619978778175 | 0.100021221824989 |
66 | 106.52 | 106.71999575494 | -0.199995754939678 |
67 | 106.79 | 106.520008488139 | 0.269991511860908 |
68 | 106.95 | 106.789988541129 | 0.16001145887077 |
69 | 106.92 | 106.949993208858 | -0.0299932088582437 |
70 | 106.74 | 106.92000127296 | -0.180001272959672 |
71 | 108.13 | 106.740007639541 | 1.38999236045862 |
72 | 107.86 | 108.129941006505 | -0.269941006505263 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 107.860011456727 | 106.475751486644 | 109.244271426811 |
74 | 107.860011456727 | 105.902413775411 | 109.817609138043 |
75 | 107.860011456727 | 105.46247069607 | 110.257552217384 |
76 | 107.860011456727 | 105.091579641398 | 110.628443272057 |
77 | 107.860011456727 | 104.764817160201 | 110.955205753253 |
78 | 107.860011456727 | 104.469400781588 | 111.250622131866 |
79 | 107.860011456727 | 104.197737058558 | 111.522285854896 |
80 | 107.860011456727 | 103.944878408592 | 111.775144504863 |
81 | 107.860011456727 | 103.707388213316 | 112.012634700139 |
82 | 107.860011456727 | 103.482764283122 | 112.237258630333 |
83 | 107.860011456727 | 103.269117661838 | 112.450905251617 |
84 | 107.860011456727 | 103.064980815212 | 112.655042098243 |