Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999919206385201 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 92.9 | 92.8 | 0.100000000000009 |
3 | 93.06 | 92.8999919206385 | 0.160008079361475 |
4 | 93.28 | 93.0599870723689 | 0.220012927631132 |
5 | 93.41 | 93.2799822243603 | 0.130017775639715 |
6 | 93.49 | 93.4099894953939 | 0.0800105046060935 |
7 | 93.49 | 93.4899935356621 | 6.46433788631384e-06 |
8 | 93.5 | 93.4899999994777 | 0.0100000005222824 |
9 | 93.56 | 93.4999991920638 | 0.0600008079361913 |
10 | 94.12 | 93.5599951523178 | 0.560004847682166 |
11 | 94.3 | 94.1199547551841 | 0.180045244815943 |
12 | 94.36 | 94.2999854534938 | 0.060014546506153 |
13 | 94.36 | 94.3599951512078 | 4.84879215889578e-06 |
14 | 94.5 | 94.3599999996082 | 0.140000000391751 |
15 | 94.85 | 94.4999886888939 | 0.350011311106101 |
16 | 95.16 | 94.849971721321 | 0.310028278679042 |
17 | 95.73 | 95.1599749516947 | 0.57002504830534 |
18 | 95.76 | 95.7299539456158 | 0.0300460543841865 |
19 | 95.76 | 95.7599975724707 | 2.42752933843349e-06 |
20 | 95.81 | 95.7599999998039 | 0.0500000001961212 |
21 | 96.09 | 95.8099959603192 | 0.280004039680762 |
22 | 96.48 | 96.0899773774615 | 0.390022622538524 |
23 | 96.71 | 96.4799684886625 | 0.230031511337515 |
24 | 96.69 | 96.7099814149227 | -0.0199814149226683 |
25 | 96.69 | 96.6900016143707 | -1.61437073131765e-06 |
26 | 96.66 | 96.6900000001304 | -0.0300000001304284 |
27 | 96.73 | 96.6600024238085 | 0.0699975761915539 |
28 | 96.84 | 96.7299943446428 | 0.110005655357213 |
29 | 97.87 | 96.8399911122455 | 1.03000888775455 |
30 | 98 | 97.8699167818587 | 0.130083218141323 |
31 | 97.98 | 97.9999894901066 | -0.0199894901065818 |
32 | 98.03 | 97.9800016150232 | 0.0499983849768313 |
33 | 98.11 | 98.0299959604498 | 0.0800040395502464 |
34 | 98.18 | 98.1099935361844 | 0.0700064638155595 |
35 | 98.32 | 98.1799943439247 | 0.14000565607526 |
36 | 98.34 | 98.3199886884369 | 0.0200113115630671 |
37 | 98.28 | 98.3399983832138 | -0.0599983832137951 |
38 | 98.52 | 98.2800048474863 | 0.239995152513728 |
39 | 98.56 | 98.5199806099241 | 0.040019390075912 |
40 | 99.6 | 98.5599967666888 | 1.04000323331118 |
41 | 100.16 | 99.5999159743794 | 0.560084025620625 |
42 | 100.46 | 100.159954748787 | 0.300045251213021 |
43 | 100.46 | 100.45997575826 | 2.42417404479056e-05 |
44 | 100.68 | 100.459999998041 | 0.220000001958596 |
45 | 100.83 | 100.679982225405 | 0.150017774595398 |
46 | 100.64 | 100.829987879522 | -0.189987879521709 |
47 | 100.9 | 100.640015349808 | 0.25998465019245 |
48 | 100.92 | 100.8999789949 | 0.0200210050996787 |
49 | 100.75 | 100.919998382431 | -0.169998382430634 |
50 | 100.96 | 100.750013734784 | 0.209986265216159 |
51 | 101.05 | 100.959983034451 | 0.0900169655494381 |
52 | 101.33 | 101.049992727204 | 0.280007272796041 |
53 | 101.38 | 101.3299773772 | 0.0500226227997445 |
54 | 101.44 | 101.379995958491 | 0.0600040415085203 |
55 | 101.51 | 101.439995152057 | 0.070004847943423 |
56 | 101.4 | 101.509994344055 | -0.109994344055281 |
57 | 101.26 | 101.400008886841 | -0.140008886840675 |
58 | 100.83 | 101.260011311824 | -0.430011311824074 |
59 | 100.75 | 100.830034742168 | -0.0800347421682801 |
60 | 100.81 | 100.750006466296 | 0.0599935337038744 |
61 | 100.82 | 100.809995152906 | 0.01000484709445 |
62 | 100.85 | 100.819999191672 | 0.0300008083277561 |
63 | 100.79 | 100.849997576126 | -0.0599975761262357 |
64 | 100.84 | 100.790004847421 | 0.0499951525789442 |
65 | 101.04 | 100.839995960711 | 0.200004039289098 |
66 | 101.11 | 101.039983840951 | 0.0700161590493025 |
67 | 101.15 | 101.109994343141 | 0.0400056568585825 |
68 | 101.11 | 101.149996767798 | -0.039996767798371 |
69 | 101.28 | 101.110003231483 | 0.169996768516555 |
70 | 101.62 | 101.279986265347 | 0.340013734653439 |
71 | 102.07 | 101.619972529061 | 0.450027470938693 |
72 | 102.14 | 102.069963640654 | 0.0700363593461475 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 102.139994341509 | 101.686987159418 | 102.593001523601 |
74 | 102.139994341509 | 101.499371320391 | 102.780617362628 |
75 | 102.139994341509 | 101.355405147505 | 102.924583535513 |
76 | 102.139994341509 | 101.234034876904 | 103.045953806115 |
77 | 102.139994341509 | 101.127104959756 | 103.152883723263 |
78 | 102.139994341509 | 101.030432604683 | 103.249556078336 |
79 | 102.139994341509 | 100.941532996288 | 103.338455686731 |
80 | 102.139994341509 | 100.858787120116 | 103.421201562903 |
81 | 102.139994341509 | 100.781070395031 | 103.498918287987 |
82 | 102.139994341509 | 100.707564014941 | 103.572424668078 |
83 | 102.139994341509 | 100.637649844188 | 103.642338838831 |
84 | 102.139994341509 | 100.570847650854 | 103.709141032164 |