| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.703764717445406 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 2115 | 2341 | -226 |
| 3 | 2402 | 2181.94917385734 | 220.050826142662 |
| 4 | 2180 | 2336.81318134126 | -156.813181341257 |
| 5 | 2453 | 2226.45359708291 | 226.546402917088 |
| 6 | 2507 | 2385.88896232013 | 121.111037679871 |
| 7 | 2679 | 2471.12263753242 | 207.877362467576 |
| 8 | 2622 | 2617.41939079271 | 4.58060920728622 |
| 9 | 2618 | 2620.64306193721 | -2.64306193720768 |
| 10 | 2648 | 2618.78296819978 | 29.2170318002222 |
| 11 | 2523 | 2639.34488432925 | -116.344884329254 |
| 12 | 2473 | 2557.46545968306 | -84.4654596830583 |
| 13 | 2513 | 2498.02164931531 | 14.9783506846852 |
| 14 | 2466 | 2508.56288405272 | -42.5628840527206 |
| 15 | 2544 | 2478.6086279837 | 65.3913720163036 |
| 16 | 2537 | 2524.62876843412 | 12.3712315658822 |
| 17 | 2564 | 2533.33520472153 | 30.6647952784674 |
| 18 | 2582 | 2554.9160057062 | 27.0839942937955 |
| 19 | 2716 | 2573.97676529767 | 142.02323470233 |
| 20 | 2904 | 2673.92770693864 | 230.072293061362 |
| 21 | 2851 | 2835.84446925698 | 15.1555307430162 |
| 22 | 2932 | 2846.51039706808 | 85.4896029319225 |
| 23 | 2772 | 2906.67496331998 | -134.674963319982 |
| 24 | 2811 | 2811.89547581212 | -0.895475812124459 |
| 25 | 2935 | 2811.26527153023 | 123.734728469774 |
| 26 | 2783 | 2898.34540774994 | -115.34540774994 |
| 27 | 3003 | 2817.16937945618 | 185.830620543822 |
| 28 | 2995 | 2947.95041361591 | 47.0495863840943 |
| 29 | 3127 | 2981.06225248343 | 145.937747516569 |
| 30 | 2985 | 3083.76809012905 | -98.7680901290478 |
| 31 | 3287 | 3014.25859308676 | 272.741406913244 |
| 32 | 3236 | 3206.20437225872 | 29.7956277412823 |
| 33 | 3252 | 3227.17348379717 | 24.8265162028301 |
| 34 | 3228 | 3244.64550995781 | -16.6455099578084 |
| 35 | 2856 | 3232.93098734562 | -376.930987345617 |
| 36 | 3176 | 2967.66025753991 | 208.339742460089 |
| 37 | 3362 | 3114.28241752498 | 247.717582475016 |
| 38 | 3036 | 3288.61731196177 | -252.617311961772 |
| 39 | 3330 | 3110.83416078718 | 219.165839212822 |
| 40 | 3251 | 3265.07534569447 | -14.0753456944749 |
| 41 | 3318 | 3255.16961400886 | 62.8303859911434 |
| 42 | 3238 | 3299.3874228529 | -61.3874228528994 |
| 43 | 3597 | 3256.18512055413 | 340.814879445873 |
| 44 | 3708 | 3496.03860788854 | 211.961392111458 |
| 45 | 3902 | 3645.2095571172 | 256.790442882803 |
| 46 | 3745 | 3825.92961059529 | -80.9296105952935 |
| 47 | 3426 | 3768.97420606173 | -342.97420606173 |
| 48 | 3526 | 3527.60106084163 | -1.60106084163453 |
| 49 | 3483 | 3526.47429071081 | -43.4742907108089 |
| 50 | 3458 | 3495.87861879258 | -37.8786187925771 |
| 51 | 3824 | 3469.2209833408 | 354.779016659203 |
| 52 | 3696 | 3718.90193775552 | -22.9019377555201 |
| 53 | 3518 | 3702.78436200205 | -184.784362002054 |
| 54 | 3814 | 3572.73964768935 | 241.260352310651 |
| 55 | 3996 | 3742.53017136403 | 253.469828635966 |
| 56 | 4136 | 3920.91329369496 | 215.08670630504 |
| 57 | 4037 | 4072.28372878399 | -35.2837287839893 |
| 58 | 3915 | 4047.4522853659 | -132.452285365905 |
| 59 | 3760 | 3954.23704018037 | -194.23704018037 |
| 60 | 3955 | 3817.5398644804 | 137.4601355196 |
| 61 | 4160 | 3914.27945791436 | 245.720542085642 |
| 62 | 4115 | 4087.20890578579 | 27.791094214208 |
| 63 | 4202 | 4106.76729735295 | 95.2327026470475 |
| 64 | 4018 | 4173.78871342291 | -155.788713422915 |
| 65 | 4233 | 4064.15011353965 | 168.849886460346 |
| 66 | 4029 | 4182.98070617511 | -153.980706175108 |
| 67 | 4401 | 4074.61451800174 | 326.385481998261 |
| 68 | 4645 | 4304.31310451853 | 340.686895481473 |
| 69 | 4491 | 4544.0765212544 | -53.0765212543984 |
| 70 | 4379 | 4506.72313827081 | -127.723138270811 |
| 71 | 4394 | 4416.83609995441 | -22.8360999544129 |
| 72 | 4472 | 4400.76485852244 | 71.2351414775594 |
| 73 | 4614 | 4450.89763773658 | 163.102362263421 |
| 74 | 4160 | 4565.68332562957 | -405.683325629574 |
| 75 | 4328 | 4280.17771459556 | 47.8222854044361 |
| 76 | 4202 | 4313.83335177081 | -111.833351770811 |
| 77 | 4635 | 4235.12898456085 | 399.871015439147 |
| 78 | 4542 | 4516.54409675599 | 25.4559032440084 |
| 79 | 4920 | 4534.45906330983 | 385.540936690171 |
| 80 | 4774 | 4805.78917168322 | -31.7891716832237 |
| 81 | 4698 | 4783.41707425576 | -85.4170742557562 |
| 82 | 4916 | 4723.30355112714 | 192.696448872859 |
| 83 | 4703 | 4858.91651302088 | -155.916513020882 |
| 84 | 4616 | 4749.18797228967 | -133.187972289668 |
| 85 | 4873 | 4655.4549766041 | 217.545023395896 |
| 86 | 4375 | 4808.55548852597 | -433.555488525971 |
| 87 | 4801 | 4503.43443264659 | 297.565567353414 |
| 88 | 4427 | 4712.85058007654 | -285.850580076543 |
| 89 | 4684 | 4511.67902735737 | 172.32097264263 |
| 90 | 4648 | 4632.95244797913 | 15.047552020872 |
| 91 | 5225 | 4643.54238417534 | 581.457615824658 |
| 92 | 5174 | 5052.75173888266 | 121.248261117338 |
| 93 | 5181 | 5138.08198710865 | 42.9180128913476 |
| 94 | 5266 | 5168.28617032445 | 97.7138296755502 |
| 95 | 4839 | 5237.05371605657 | -398.053716056572 |
| 96 | 5032 | 4956.91755504792 | 75.0824449520751 |
| 97 | 5221 | 5009.75793070473 | 211.242069295267 |
| 98 | 4658 | 5158.4226459149 | -500.422645914899 |
| 99 | 5014 | 4806.24284390932 | 207.757156090682 |
| 100 | 4980 | 4952.45500016274 | 27.5449998372624 |
| 101 | 4952 | 4971.84019919024 | -19.8401991902419 |
| 102 | 4946 | 4957.87736701306 | -11.8773670130604 |
| 103 | 5365 | 4949.51849517312 | 415.481504826881 |
| 104 | 5456 | 5241.9197190214 | 214.080280978599 |
| 105 | 5397 | 5392.58186747494 | 4.41813252506199 |
| 106 | 5436 | 5395.69119326307 | 40.3088067369254 |
| 107 | 4995 | 5424.05910924685 | -429.059109246848 |
| 108 | 5019 | 5122.10244646036 | -103.102446460362 |
| 109 | 5249 | 5049.54258235926 | 199.457417640744 |
| 110 | 4799 | 5189.91367552758 | -390.913675527585 |
| 111 | 5137 | 4914.80242312437 | 222.197576875631 |
| 112 | 4979 | 5071.1772380313 | -92.1772380313014 |
| 113 | 4951 | 5006.3061501533 | -55.3061501533048 |
| 114 | 5265 | 4967.38363301767 | 297.616366982329 |
| 115 | 5612 | 5176.83553143412 | 435.164468565882 |
| 116 | 5572 | 5483.08893069667 | 88.9110693033335 |
| 117 | 5403 | 5545.6614042627 | -142.661404262696 |
| 118 | 5373 | 5445.26134140139 | -72.2613414013949 |
| 119 | 5252 | 5394.40635888782 | -142.406358887816 |
| 120 | 5437 | 5294.1857879627 | 142.814212037297 |
| 121 | 5296 | 5394.69339154432 | -98.6933915443196 |
| 122 | 5011 | 5325.2364647304 | -314.236464730402 |
| 123 | 5294 | 5104.08792791837 | 189.912072081633 |
| 124 | 5335 | 5237.74134366637 | 97.2586563336308 |
| 125 | 5398 | 5306.18855446013 | 91.8114455398736 |
| 126 | 5396 | 5370.80221048875 | 25.1977895112504 |
| 127 | 5724 | 5388.53552570438 | 335.464474295617 |
| 128 | 5898 | 5624.62358667001 | 273.37641332999 |
| 129 | 5718 | 5817.01626095343 | -99.0162609534291 |
| 130 | 5625 | 5747.33211004104 | -122.332110041039 |
| 131 | 5380 | 5661.23908718351 | -281.239087183507 |
| 132 | 5488 | 5463.3129404572 | 24.6870595427981 |
| 133 | 5678 | 5480.6868219409 | 197.313178059103 |
| 134 | 5224 | 5619.54887494592 | -395.548874945916 |
| 135 | 5596 | 5341.17553273376 | 254.824467266245 |
| 136 | 5184 | 5520.51200193756 | -336.51200193756 |
| 137 | 5620 | 5283.68672797698 | 336.313272023015 |
| 138 | 5531 | 5520.3721428354 | 10.627857164598 |
| 139 | 5816 | 5527.8516537299 | 288.148346270104 |
| 140 | 6086 | 5730.64029322504 | 355.359706774963 |
| 141 | 6175 | 5980.729916855 | 194.270083144999 |
| 142 | 6112 | 6117.45034702764 | -5.45034702763678 |
| 143 | 5813 | 6113.61458509175 | -300.614585091753 |
| 144 | 5740 | 5902.05264655469 | -162.052646554687 |
| 145 | 5821 | 5788.00571154085 | 32.9942884591528 |
| 146 | 5294 | 5811.22592763562 | -517.225927635615 |
| 147 | 5881 | 5447.2205688177 | 433.779431182302 |
| 148 | 5589 | 5752.49922763734 | -163.49922763734 |
| 149 | 5845 | 5637.43423989661 | 207.565760103394 |
| 150 | 5706 | 5783.51169840711 | -77.5116984071119 |
| 151 | 6355 | 5728.96169987892 | 626.038300121083 |
| 152 | 6404 | 6169.54536727363 | 234.454632726367 |
| 153 | 6426 | 6334.54626562807 | 91.4537343719294 |
| 154 | 6375 | 6398.90817715766 | -23.9081771576584 |
| 155 | 5869 | 6382.08244561566 | -513.082445615664 |
| 156 | 5994 | 6020.99312325076 | -26.9931232507588 |
| 157 | 6105 | 6001.99631549322 | 103.003684506781 |
| 158 | 5792 | 6074.48667441597 | -282.48667441597 |
| 159 | 6011 | 5875.68251981352 | 135.317480186477 |
| 160 | 5968 | 5970.91418802238 | -2.91418802238331 |
| 161 | 6255 | 5968.86328531223 | 286.136714687772 |
| 162 | 6208 | 6170.23620947522 | 37.7637905247757 |
| 163 | 6897 | 6196.81303284356 | 700.18696715644 |
| 164 | 6814 | 6689.57991594337 | 124.420084056632 |
| 165 | 6897 | 6777.14238124402 | 119.857618755982 |
| 166 | 6596 | 6861.4939444415 | -265.493944441501 |
| 167 | 6188 | 6674.64867364816 | -486.648673648162 |
| 168 | 6406 | 6332.16250734298 | 73.8374926570186 |
| 169 | 6548 | 6384.12672949963 | 163.873270500375 |
| 170 | 5842 | 6499.45495541018 | -657.454955410176 |
| 171 | 6555 | 6036.76135448285 | 518.238645517148 |
| 172 | 6424 | 6401.47942841452 | 22.5205715854827 |
| 173 | 6596 | 6417.32861211308 | 178.671387886916 |
| 174 | 6645 | 6543.0712309249 | 101.928769075102 |
| 175 | 7203 | 6614.8051022926 | 588.194897707404 |
| 176 | 7128 | 7028.75591828048 | 99.2440817195229 |
| 177 | 7133 | 7098.60040140995 | 34.3995985900547 |
| 178 | 6778 | 7122.80962519191 | -344.809625191911 |
| 179 | 6593 | 6880.14477674627 | -287.14477674627 |
| 180 | 6591 | 6678.06241407351 | -87.0624140735072 |
| 181 | 6120 | 6616.79095883295 | -496.79095883295 |
| 182 | 5612 | 6267.16701006045 | -655.167010060446 |
| 183 | 6070 | 5806.0835843457 | 263.916415654296 |
| 184 | 5983 | 5991.81864603785 | -8.81864603785471 |
| 185 | 6145 | 5985.61239410077 | 159.387605899227 |
| 186 | 6303 | 6097.78376753074 | 205.216232469258 |
| 187 | 6588 | 6242.20771138968 | 345.792288610321 |
| 188 | 6640 | 6485.56412367832 | 154.435876321678 |
| 189 | 6719 | 6594.25064454128 | 124.749355458719 |
| 190 | 6575 | 6682.04483943718 | -107.044839437183 |
| 191 | 6487 | 6606.71045825669 | -119.710458256685 |
| 192 | 6510 | 6522.46246142641 | -12.4624614264094 |
| 193 | 6365 | 6513.69182078198 | -148.691820781978 |
| 194 | 5844 | 6409.04776354291 | -565.047763542907 |
| 195 | 5974 | 6011.38708388997 | -37.3870838899747 |
| 196 | 5880 | 5985.07537336004 | -105.07537336004 |
| 197 | 6279 | 5911.12703291684 | 367.872967083159 |
| 198 | 6342 | 6170.02304765192 | 171.976952348076 |
| 199 | 6598 | 6291.05435892829 | 306.94564107171 |
| 200 | 6801 | 6507.07187128822 | 293.928128711779 |
| 201 | 6529 | 6713.92811774032 | -184.928117740323 |
| 202 | 6369 | 6583.78223321109 | -214.782233211094 |
| 203 | 6028 | 6432.62607554299 | -404.626075542995 |
| 204 | 6187 | 6147.86451981744 | 39.1354801825637 |
| 205 | 6164 | 6175.40668997021 | -11.4066899702084 |
| 206 | 5866 | 6167.37906402634 | -301.379064026338 |
| 207 | 6198 | 5955.27911218788 | 242.720887812118 |
| 208 | 5898 | 6126.09750921708 | -228.097509217076 |
| 209 | 6462 | 5965.57053009292 | 496.42946990708 |
| 210 | 6063 | 6314.94007571365 | -251.940075713649 |
| 211 | 6496 | 6137.63353951586 | 358.366460484141 |
| 212 | 6678 | 6389.83921032039 | 288.160789679609 |
| 213 | 6554 | 6592.63660704811 | -38.6366070481054 |
| 214 | 6513 | 6565.44552620585 | -52.4455262058464 |
| 215 | 6210 | 6528.53621527431 | -318.536215274313 |
| 216 | 5928 | 6304.36166573566 | -376.361665735657 |
| 217 | 6268 | 6039.49160439192 | 228.50839560808 |
| 218 | 5582 | 6200.30775086094 | -618.307750860943 |
| 219 | 5869 | 5765.16457128199 | 103.835428718014 |
| 220 | 5764 | 5838.24028243454 | -74.2402824345418 |
| 221 | 6082 | 5785.99259104393 | 296.00740895607 |
| 222 | 6062 | 5994.31216156965 | 67.6878384303545 |
| 223 | 6810 | 6041.94847405707 | 768.051525942926 |
| 224 | 6727 | 6582.47603919581 | 144.523960804189 |
| 225 | 6537 | 6684.18690363526 | -147.186903635262 |
| 226 | 6175 | 6580.60195398673 | -405.601953986728 |
| 227 | 6014 | 6295.15360944395 | -281.153609443954 |
| 228 | 6109 | 6097.28761893487 | 11.7123810651256 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 229 | 6105.53037948578 | 5615.86066957651 | 6595.20008939506 |
| 230 | 6105.53037948578 | 5506.75326067129 | 6704.30749830028 |
| 231 | 6105.53037948578 | 5414.66740375981 | 6796.39335521176 |
| 232 | 6105.53037948578 | 5333.48811092654 | 6877.57264804503 |
| 233 | 6105.53037948578 | 5260.06785656992 | 6950.99290240165 |
| 234 | 6105.53037948578 | 5192.53284889306 | 7018.52791007851 |
| 235 | 6105.53037948578 | 5129.66045778435 | 7081.40030118722 |
| 236 | 6105.53037948578 | 5070.60056674739 | 7140.46019222418 |
| 237 | 6105.53037948578 | 5014.73373000987 | 7196.3270289617 |
| 238 | 6105.53037948578 | 4961.59203161863 | 7249.46872735294 |
| 239 | 6105.53037948578 | 4910.81176954695 | 7300.24898942462 |
| 240 | 6105.53037948578 | 4862.10359428798 | 7348.95716468359 |
