Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.772125155625731 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 94.16 | 94.65 | -0.490000000000009 |
3 | 93.91 | 94.2716586737434 | -0.361658673743392 |
4 | 93.21 | 93.9924129139959 | -0.782412913995884 |
5 | 92.81 | 93.3882922210132 | -0.578292221013228 |
6 | 93.55 | 92.9417782498662 | 0.608221750133751 |
7 | 93.03 | 93.4114015633432 | -0.381401563343218 |
8 | 93.25 | 93.1169118218909 | 0.133088178109062 |
9 | 94.24 | 93.2196725521253 | 1.02032744787465 |
10 | 93.23 | 94.0074930416048 | -0.777493041604757 |
11 | 93.52 | 93.4071711058578 | 0.112828894142226 |
12 | 92.05 | 93.4942891333064 | -1.44428913330641 |
13 | 93.42 | 92.3791171614836 | 1.04088283851637 |
14 | 95.15 | 93.1828089851612 | 1.96719101483878 |
15 | 95.12 | 94.7017266536392 | 0.418273346360849 |
16 | 95.46 | 95.0246860262921 | 0.435313973707864 |
17 | 94.92 | 95.3608028959874 | -0.44080289598736 |
18 | 95.63 | 95.0204478913228 | 0.60955210867715 |
19 | 94.96 | 95.4910984080972 | -0.531098408097193 |
20 | 95.1 | 95.0810239670926 | 0.0189760329074318 |
21 | 95.22 | 95.0956758394544 | 0.124324160545626 |
22 | 93.77 | 95.1916696512637 | -1.42166965126371 |
23 | 95.01 | 94.0939627505333 | 0.916037249466669 |
24 | 94.87 | 94.8012581543368 | 0.0687418456632543 |
25 | 95.01 | 94.8543354626175 | 0.155664537382521 |
26 | 96.68 | 94.9745279677694 | 1.70547203223065 |
27 | 94.94 | 96.2913658260708 | -1.35136582607079 |
28 | 93.9 | 95.2479422773086 | -1.34794227730858 |
29 | 94.83 | 94.2071621366672 | 0.622837863332805 |
30 | 96.27 | 94.6880709188226 | 1.58192908117736 |
31 | 96.51 | 95.9095181568156 | 0.600481843184426 |
32 | 96.69 | 96.3731652934348 | 0.316834706565231 |
33 | 97.47 | 96.6178013405491 | 0.85219865945092 |
34 | 96.41 | 97.2758053631017 | -0.865805363101671 |
35 | 98.68 | 96.6072952623752 | 2.07270473762482 |
36 | 99.3 | 98.2076827304799 | 1.09231726952005 |
37 | 99.22 | 99.0510883722008 | 0.168911627799218 |
38 | 99.7 | 99.1815092891023 | 0.518490710897751 |
39 | 98 | 99.5818490099447 | -1.58184900994468 |
40 | 98.51 | 98.3604635969647 | 0.14953640303527 |
41 | 98.6 | 98.4759244154301 | 0.124075584569937 |
42 | 98.14 | 98.5717262954755 | -0.431726295475471 |
43 | 99.14 | 98.2383795623938 | 0.90162043760624 |
44 | 98.25 | 98.9345433830958 | -0.684543383095814 |
45 | 99.72 | 98.4059902168904 | 1.31400978310961 |
46 | 99.23 | 99.4205702251676 | -0.190570225167619 |
47 | 101.32 | 99.2734261604024 | 2.04657383959756 |
48 | 101.07 | 100.853637304801 | 0.21636269519874 |
49 | 101.66 | 101.020696384503 | 0.639303615496814 |
50 | 103.09 | 101.514318788111 | 1.57568121188925 |
51 | 102.3 | 102.730941889057 | -0.43094188905728 |
52 | 100.01 | 102.398200815903 | -2.38820081590328 |
53 | 98.78 | 100.554210889258 | -1.77421088925847 |
54 | 99.46 | 99.1842980302769 | 0.275701969723087 |
55 | 99.73 | 99.3971744565557 | 0.332825543444343 |
56 | 99.52 | 99.6541574310838 | -0.134157431083835 |
57 | 98.97 | 99.5505711037299 | -0.580571103729881 |
58 | 97.97 | 99.1022975499106 | -1.13229754991065 |
59 | 99.37 | 98.2280221279713 | 1.14197787202875 |
60 | 99.14 | 99.1097719701326 | 0.0302280298674162 |
61 | 99.89 | 99.1331117923982 | 0.756888207601776 |
62 | 100.29 | 99.717524217484 | 0.57247578251598 |
63 | 99.57 | 100.159547170151 | -0.58954717015115 |
64 | 101.11 | 99.7043429696495 | 1.40565703035053 |
65 | 101.44 | 100.789686122965 | 0.650313877034719 |
66 | 100.81 | 101.291809826476 | -0.48180982647628 |
67 | 101.26 | 100.919792339226 | 0.340207660773729 |
68 | 99.86 | 101.182475232246 | -1.32247523224625 |
69 | 100.57 | 100.161358837737 | 0.408641162263052 |
70 | 100.35 | 100.476880958744 | -0.12688095874438 |
71 | 101.15 | 100.378912978728 | 0.771087021272081 |
72 | 101.33 | 100.974288665029 | 0.355711334971389 |
73 | 102.09 | 101.248942334901 | 0.841057665098759 |
74 | 101.79 | 101.898344115456 | -0.108344115455836 |
75 | 102.83 | 101.814688898448 | 1.01531110155163 |
76 | 102.5 | 102.598636140742 | -0.0986361407424567 |
77 | 102.22 | 102.522476695221 | -0.302476695221372 |
78 | 102.43 | 102.28892682985 | 0.141073170149596 |
79 | 102.89 | 102.397852973307 | 0.492147026693218 |
80 | 102.12 | 102.777852072883 | -0.657852072883031 |
81 | 103.25 | 102.26990793873 | 0.980092061270483 |
82 | 103.36 | 103.026661674066 | 0.333338325934463 |
83 | 103.5 | 103.284040580854 | 0.215959419146287 |
84 | 103.68 | 103.450788280971 | 0.229211719029124 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
85 | 103.627768415197 | 101.874310728523 | 105.381226101872 |
86 | 103.627768415197 | 101.412451572735 | 105.84308525766 |
87 | 103.627768415197 | 101.031493474819 | 106.224043355576 |
88 | 103.627768415197 | 100.699687402046 | 106.555849428349 |
89 | 103.627768415197 | 100.401830834723 | 106.853705995672 |
90 | 103.627768415197 | 100.129241850105 | 107.12629498029 |
91 | 103.627768415197 | 99.876408264506 | 107.379128565889 |
92 | 103.627768415197 | 99.6395710988984 | 107.615965731497 |
93 | 103.627768415197 | 99.4160309248884 | 107.839505905507 |
94 | 103.627768415197 | 99.2037716316527 | 108.051765198742 |
95 | 103.627768415197 | 99.0012403006872 | 108.254296529708 |
96 | 103.627768415197 | 98.8072106416723 | 108.448326188723 |