Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.0892728687927934 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 89.34 | 91.65 | -2.31 |
4 | 89.15 | 90.1337796730887 | -0.983779673088648 |
5 | 88.82 | 89.855954839412 | -1.035954839412 |
6 | 88.82 | 89.4334721789579 | -0.613472178957906 |
7 | 91.97 | 89.3787057576178 | 2.59129424238225 |
8 | 93.01 | 92.7600380285215 | 0.249961971478527 |
9 | 93.24 | 93.8223528508045 | -0.582352850804469 |
10 | 93.2 | 94.0003645411635 | -0.800364541163475 |
11 | 93.19 | 93.8889137024938 | -0.698913702493797 |
12 | 92.2 | 93.8165196712336 | -1.61651967123358 |
13 | 93.39 | 92.6822083227226 | 0.707791677277427 |
14 | 94.75 | 93.9353949162608 | 0.81460508373921 |
15 | 94.25 | 95.3681170490194 | -1.11811704901939 |
16 | 94.37 | 94.7682995324073 | -0.398299532407293 |
17 | 94.02 | 94.8527421905105 | -0.832742190510473 |
18 | 92.77 | 94.4284009061988 | -1.65840090619881 |
19 | 92.64 | 93.0303506996939 | -0.390350699693869 |
20 | 93.19 | 92.8655029728969 | 0.324497027103078 |
21 | 92.74 | 93.4444717534211 | -0.704471753421146 |
22 | 92.52 | 92.9315815390097 | -0.411581539009745 |
23 | 92.25 | 92.6748384742802 | -0.424838474280193 |
24 | 91.6 | 92.3669119249077 | -0.76691192490766 |
25 | 93.73 | 91.6484474972597 | 2.08155250274027 |
26 | 96.21 | 93.9642736607222 | 2.24572633927781 |
27 | 96.36 | 96.644756093553 | -0.284756093553042 |
28 | 95.69 | 96.7693351001753 | -1.07933510017534 |
29 | 95.07 | 96.0029797593939 | -0.93297975939393 |
30 | 95.5 | 95.2996899797472 | 0.200310020252786 |
31 | 95.22 | 95.7475722299031 | -0.527572229903129 |
32 | 97.41 | 95.4204743434443 | 1.98952565655573 |
33 | 98.31 | 97.7880850063419 | 0.521914993658143 |
34 | 98.54 | 98.7346778550917 | -0.194677855091697 |
35 | 98.45 | 98.9472984044772 | -0.497298404477235 |
36 | 98.03 | 98.8129031492635 | -0.782903149263475 |
37 | 101.45 | 98.3230111391418 | 3.12698886085819 |
38 | 102.44 | 102.022166405434 | 0.417833594566261 |
39 | 102.42 | 103.049467609099 | -0.629467609098668 |
40 | 100.98 | 102.973273229822 | -1.99327322982229 |
41 | 100.69 | 101.355328010308 | -0.665328010308187 |
42 | 100.28 | 101.00593227014 | -0.725932270139765 |
43 | 98.06 | 100.531126213835 | -2.47112621383512 |
44 | 97.37 | 98.090521687577 | -0.720521687576991 |
45 | 97.25 | 97.3361986494996 | -0.0861986494995648 |
46 | 98.93 | 97.2085034487727 | 1.72149655122733 |
47 | 100.04 | 99.0421863845176 | 0.997813615482357 |
48 | 100.09 | 100.241264068492 | -0.151264068492253 |
49 | 100.79 | 100.277760291153 | 0.512239708847318 |
50 | 99.76 | 101.023489399471 | -1.26348939947107 |
51 | 99.63 | 99.880694076091 | -0.250694076091008 |
52 | 99.26 | 99.728313896729 | -0.468313896728986 |
53 | 99.69 | 99.3165061716725 | 0.373493828327526 |
54 | 99.17 | 99.7798490372037 | -0.609849037203674 |
55 | 98.79 | 99.205406064122 | -0.415406064121967 |
56 | 97.97 | 98.7883215730639 | -0.818321573063898 |
57 | 98.1 | 97.8952676586414 | 0.20473234135855 |
58 | 97.91 | 98.0435447020892 | -0.133544702089182 |
59 | 97.16 | 97.8416227834216 | -0.681622783421602 |
60 | 96.8 | 97.030772362111 | -0.230772362111026 |
61 | 97.46 | 96.6501706513073 | 0.809829348692716 |
62 | 96.59 | 97.3824664404977 | -0.792466440497677 |
63 | 96.35 | 96.4417206879324 | -0.091720687932451 |
64 | 96.12 | 96.1935325189931 | -0.073532518993062 |
65 | 96.16 | 95.956968060073 | 0.203031939927001 |
66 | 95.95 | 96.0150933038068 | -0.0650933038068331 |
67 | 96.06 | 95.7992822378368 | 0.260717762163196 |
68 | 95.89 | 95.9325572604103 | -0.0425572604103479 |
69 | 95.9 | 95.7587580516856 | 0.141241948314445 |
70 | 95.82 | 95.7813671256055 | 0.0386328743945086 |
71 | 95.54 | 95.7048159931324 | -0.164815993132365 |
72 | 95.51 | 95.4101023966025 | 0.0998976033974799 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 95.3890205422433 | 93.3805297057294 | 97.3975113787573 |
74 | 95.2680410844867 | 92.2981117007038 | 98.2379704682696 |
75 | 95.14706162673 | 91.3492155299969 | 98.9449077234631 |
76 | 95.0260821689734 | 90.4535775608419 | 99.5985867771048 |
77 | 94.9051027112167 | 89.5818264214704 | 100.228379000963 |
78 | 94.78412325346 | 88.7197724363629 | 100.848474070557 |
79 | 94.6631437957034 | 87.8595168820256 | 101.466770709381 |
80 | 94.5421643379467 | 86.996269085451 | 102.088059590442 |
81 | 94.4211848801901 | 86.1269556551349 | 102.715414105245 |
82 | 94.3002054224334 | 85.2495287256077 | 103.350882119259 |
83 | 94.1792259646767 | 84.3625887848001 | 103.995863144553 |
84 | 94.0582465069201 | 83.465164393958 | 104.651328619882 |