Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.99994924009082 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 103.07 | 103.71 | -0.640000000000001 |
3 | 103.93 | 103.070032486342 | 0.859967513658134 |
4 | 102.9 | 103.929956348127 | -1.02995634812712 |
5 | 101.54 | 102.900052280491 | -1.36005228049068 |
6 | 102.13 | 101.54006903613 | 0.589930963869747 |
7 | 101.08 | 102.129970055158 | -1.04997005515784 |
8 | 101.33 | 101.080053296385 | 0.249946703615365 |
9 | 101.24 | 101.329987312728 | -0.0899873127280273 |
10 | 100.58 | 101.240004567748 | -0.660004567747819 |
11 | 99.87 | 100.580033501772 | -0.710033501771917 |
12 | 99.1 | 99.8700360412361 | -0.770036041236068 |
13 | 98.98 | 99.1000390869595 | -0.120039086959508 |
14 | 98.77 | 98.9800060931732 | -0.210006093173163 |
15 | 98.05 | 98.7700106598902 | -0.720010659890221 |
16 | 97.94 | 98.0500365476757 | -0.110036547675705 |
17 | 97.65 | 97.9400055854452 | -0.290005585445158 |
18 | 97.2 | 97.6500147206572 | -0.45001472065718 |
19 | 97.39 | 97.2000228427064 | 0.18997715729364 |
20 | 97.35 | 97.3899903567767 | -0.0399903567767552 |
21 | 98.01 | 97.3500020299069 | 0.65999797009313 |
22 | 97.81 | 98.009966498563 | -0.199966498562972 |
23 | 97.56 | 97.8100101502813 | -0.250010150281312 |
24 | 98.05 | 97.5600126904925 | 0.48998730950747 |
25 | 97.82 | 98.0499751282887 | -0.229975128288672 |
26 | 99.05 | 97.8200116735166 | 1.22998832648338 |
27 | 98.86 | 99.0499375659042 | -0.189937565904245 |
28 | 97.64 | 98.8600096412136 | -1.22000964121359 |
29 | 97.77 | 97.6400619275786 | 0.12993807242141 |
30 | 98.07 | 97.7699934043552 | 0.30000659564476 |
31 | 98.36 | 98.0699847716924 | 0.290015228307567 |
32 | 100 | 98.3599852788533 | 1.64001472114666 |
33 | 99.52 | 99.9999167530017 | -0.479916753001703 |
34 | 98.82 | 99.5200243605308 | -0.70002436053079 |
35 | 98.98 | 98.820035533173 | 0.159964466827049 |
36 | 98.6 | 98.9799918802182 | -0.379991880218213 |
37 | 98.8 | 98.6000192883533 | 0.199980711646674 |
38 | 99.62 | 98.7999898489972 | 0.820010151002762 |
39 | 99.35 | 99.6199583763592 | -0.269958376359213 |
40 | 99.87 | 99.3500137030627 | 0.519986296937347 |
41 | 99.53 | 99.8699736055428 | -0.339973605542795 |
42 | 99.88 | 99.5300172570293 | 0.349982742970653 |
43 | 99.26 | 99.8799822349077 | -0.619982234907738 |
44 | 99.51 | 99.2600314702419 | 0.249968529758064 |
45 | 100.64 | 99.5099873116201 | 1.13001268837986 |
46 | 100.85 | 100.639942640659 | 0.210057359341434 |
47 | 101.44 | 100.849989337508 | 0.590010662492489 |
48 | 101.26 | 101.439970051112 | -0.179970051112349 |
49 | 101.67 | 101.260009135263 | 0.409990864736542 |
50 | 102.93 | 101.669979188901 | 1.26002081109905 |
51 | 103.81 | 102.929936041458 | 0.880063958541925 |
52 | 106.19 | 103.809955328033 | 2.3800446719666 |
53 | 106.94 | 106.189879189149 | 0.750120810851399 |
54 | 108.51 | 106.939961923936 | 1.57003807606424 |
55 | 108.41 | 108.50992030501 | -0.09992030500986 |
56 | 108.97 | 108.410005071946 | 0.559994928054394 |
57 | 109.25 | 108.969971574708 | 0.28002842529169 |
58 | 109.97 | 109.249985785783 | 0.720014214217429 |
59 | 108.92 | 109.969963452144 | -1.04996345214387 |
60 | 109.01 | 108.920053296049 | 0.0899467039505311 |
61 | 108.86 | 109.009995434313 | -0.149995434313482 |
62 | 107.36 | 108.860007613755 | -1.50000761375463 |
63 | 107.99 | 107.36007614025 | 0.629923859749752 |
64 | 107.94 | 107.989968025122 | -0.0499680251220838 |
65 | 108.54 | 107.940002536372 | 0.599997463627588 |
66 | 108.37 | 108.539969544183 | -0.169969544183246 |
67 | 108.77 | 108.370008627639 | 0.399991372361356 |
68 | 107.15 | 108.769979696474 | -1.61997969647425 |
69 | 108.61 | 107.150082230022 | 1.45991776997774 |
70 | 109.02 | 108.609925894707 | 0.410074105293418 |
71 | 109.16 | 109.019979184676 | 0.140020815324348 |
72 | 109.55 | 109.159992892556 | 0.390007107443864 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 109.549980203275 | 108.064729577892 | 111.035230828657 |
74 | 109.549980203275 | 107.449571934278 | 111.650388472271 |
75 | 109.549980203275 | 106.977537711646 | 112.122422694903 |
76 | 109.549980203275 | 106.579592038572 | 112.520368367977 |
77 | 109.549980203275 | 106.228993704465 | 112.870966702084 |
78 | 109.549980203275 | 105.912027921902 | 113.187932484647 |
79 | 109.549980203275 | 105.62054738443 | 113.479413022119 |
80 | 109.549980203275 | 105.349243630472 | 113.750716776077 |
81 | 109.549980203275 | 105.094429369724 | 114.005531036825 |
82 | 109.549980203275 | 104.85341989741 | 114.246540509139 |
83 | 109.549980203275 | 104.624188471696 | 114.475771934853 |
84 | 109.549980203275 | 104.405160511667 | 114.694799894883 |