Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.820763828405332 |
beta | 0.0187777670903829 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 87.8 | 89.1258648446212 | -1.32586484462119 |
14 | 88 | 88.1540085373686 | -0.154008537368554 |
15 | 86.5 | 86.4293005284753 | 0.0706994715246623 |
16 | 84.1 | 84.062250099019 | 0.0377499009809981 |
17 | 84.3 | 84.2276591959995 | 0.072340804000504 |
18 | 84.7 | 84.4021808894384 | 0.297819110561647 |
19 | 85.7 | 85.5110407267313 | 0.188959273268722 |
20 | 86.4 | 85.6610227881502 | 0.738977211849772 |
21 | 86 | 85.9445320204118 | 0.0554679795881583 |
22 | 86.9 | 88.431566547174 | -1.53156654717398 |
23 | 89.1 | 87.0242622826227 | 2.07573771737729 |
24 | 90.7 | 87.574705608817 | 3.12529439118296 |
25 | 89.8 | 89.9911983855068 | -0.191198385506823 |
26 | 89.4 | 90.2467345360067 | -0.846734536006693 |
27 | 88.6 | 88.0321462638165 | 0.567853736183466 |
28 | 86.8 | 86.0835989509948 | 0.716401049005228 |
29 | 86.8 | 86.9010332541665 | -0.101033254166524 |
30 | 89.5 | 87.060168404709 | 2.439831595291 |
31 | 88.5 | 90.0708586044507 | -1.57085860445075 |
32 | 91.2 | 88.9677141477435 | 2.23228585225648 |
33 | 92.3 | 90.4464034529661 | 1.8535965470339 |
34 | 92 | 94.4193124920275 | -2.41931249202749 |
35 | 92.8 | 93.0908940218817 | -0.290894021881655 |
36 | 92.9 | 91.9240182788283 | 0.975981721171678 |
37 | 92.7 | 92.0218427174305 | 0.678157282569515 |
38 | 94.2 | 92.9524445166808 | 1.24755548331916 |
39 | 94 | 92.7496020094007 | 1.2503979905993 |
40 | 94.3 | 91.3599272155323 | 2.94007278446774 |
41 | 94.8 | 94.0108842282275 | 0.789115771772458 |
42 | 94.7 | 95.5729601966893 | -0.872960196689263 |
43 | 95.1 | 95.2673911667694 | -0.167391166769434 |
44 | 97 | 96.1883568592271 | 0.811643140772858 |
45 | 97.9 | 96.5097478659953 | 1.39025213400467 |
46 | 97.3 | 99.5256619065462 | -2.22566190654624 |
47 | 96.5 | 98.9095989009419 | -2.40959890094194 |
48 | 98.1 | 96.2718848153288 | 1.82811518467123 |
49 | 99.3 | 97.0612091228921 | 2.23879087710786 |
50 | 99.9 | 99.5144679714866 | 0.385532028513452 |
51 | 99.9 | 98.6232337827709 | 1.27676621722912 |
52 | 99.9 | 97.5077769724935 | 2.39222302750646 |
53 | 99.8 | 99.3946960474529 | 0.405303952547143 |
54 | 99.5 | 100.448929199018 | -0.94892919901794 |
55 | 99.9 | 100.309764941192 | -0.409764941191568 |
56 | 100.1 | 101.340928606559 | -1.24092860655878 |
57 | 100.1 | 100.110214138397 | -0.0102141383966767 |
58 | 100.2 | 101.367509463926 | -1.16750946392554 |
59 | 100.6 | 101.651338907358 | -1.05133890735785 |
60 | 100.8 | 100.944791874014 | -0.144791874013919 |
61 | 100.8 | 100.189469704881 | 0.610530295118835 |
62 | 100.5 | 100.979181979839 | -0.479181979838657 |
63 | 101 | 99.5169547382794 | 1.4830452617206 |
64 | 100.5 | 98.737437284032 | 1.76256271596802 |
65 | 99 | 99.7322719579555 | -0.732271957955518 |
66 | 97.9 | 99.5715847596462 | -1.67158475964615 |
67 | 97.6 | 98.8813694502687 | -1.28136945026871 |
68 | 97.2 | 98.9628203855081 | -1.76282038550811 |
69 | 96.5 | 97.458356067394 | -0.958356067394007 |
70 | 96.3 | 97.6115965324933 | -1.31159653249333 |
71 | 96.3 | 97.6663502017457 | -1.36635020174573 |
72 | 96.2 | 96.7615476945839 | -0.561547694583851 |
73 | 95.6 | 95.7264232073297 | -0.126423207329665 |
74 | 93.5 | 95.6054516920938 | -2.10545169209382 |
75 | 93.2 | 93.0756485989899 | 0.124351401010117 |
76 | 93.6 | 91.2334525307088 | 2.36654746929122 |
77 | 94.6 | 92.2095956966954 | 2.39040430330462 |
78 | 96.1 | 94.3387923402721 | 1.7612076597279 |
79 | 98.4 | 96.4789494595798 | 1.92105054042018 |
80 | 99.6 | 99.1115983083746 | 0.48840169162537 |
81 | 99.4 | 99.6426036573955 | -0.242603657395506 |
82 | 99.7 | 100.398641838367 | -0.698641838367493 |
83 | 100.1 | 101.050136921272 | -0.95013692127246 |
84 | 99.9 | 100.718437003811 | -0.818437003810772 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
85 | 99.5994679539539 | 96.9057301385634 | 102.293205769344 |
86 | 99.2754490242754 | 95.769362956277 | 102.781535092274 |
87 | 98.9537328176424 | 94.7730002581488 | 103.134465377136 |
88 | 97.4082668179844 | 92.6721619107713 | 102.144371725198 |
89 | 96.4594122036406 | 91.202185747003 | 101.716638660278 |
90 | 96.533442695643 | 90.748251542777 | 102.318633848509 |
91 | 97.25062145171 | 90.9311181487811 | 103.570124754639 |
92 | 98.0073780609169 | 91.1701915008911 | 104.844564620943 |
93 | 97.9666643493059 | 90.677212490775 | 105.256116207837 |
94 | 98.7902853144664 | 91.0021677585268 | 106.578402870406 |
95 | 99.9315017857133 | 91.6293070568625 | 108.233696514564 |
96 | 100.388962345885 | 31.0985914048751 | 169.679333286896 |