Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.832646637647366 |
beta | 0.0234863353593083 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 87.8 | 89.1063568376068 | -1.30635683760684 |
14 | 88 | 88.1304306447819 | -0.130430644781939 |
15 | 86.5 | 86.4185847645613 | 0.081415235438655 |
16 | 84.1 | 84.0555571190795 | 0.0444428809204709 |
17 | 84.3 | 84.2209470171537 | 0.0790529828463349 |
18 | 84.7 | 84.3917008459832 | 0.308299154016822 |
19 | 85.7 | 85.4968647706285 | 0.203135229371512 |
20 | 86.4 | 85.6601034492918 | 0.739896550708238 |
21 | 86 | 85.9514105864604 | 0.0485894135396308 |
22 | 86.9 | 88.4638866993533 | -1.56388669935329 |
23 | 89.1 | 87.003156914632 | 2.09684308536804 |
24 | 90.7 | 87.5940269585978 | 3.10597304140217 |
25 | 89.8 | 90.06726230223 | -0.267262302229994 |
26 | 89.4 | 90.2461431241284 | -0.846143124128389 |
27 | 88.6 | 88.0526316731031 | 0.547368326896944 |
28 | 86.8 | 86.1593198469037 | 0.640680153096298 |
29 | 86.8 | 86.9265457217242 | -0.126545721724213 |
30 | 89.5 | 87.0600418470587 | 2.43995815294134 |
31 | 88.5 | 90.0597795181783 | -1.55977951817829 |
32 | 91.2 | 88.9477413162904 | 2.25225868370957 |
33 | 92.3 | 90.5149739480094 | 1.7850260519906 |
34 | 92 | 94.3697471527765 | -2.3697471527765 |
35 | 92.8 | 93.0012088113275 | -0.201208811327504 |
36 | 92.9 | 91.953107678623 | 0.946892321377049 |
37 | 92.7 | 92.1274595706426 | 0.572540429357417 |
38 | 94.2 | 92.988534817943 | 1.21146518205704 |
39 | 94 | 92.8615442019649 | 1.13845579803512 |
40 | 94.3 | 91.6076259886333 | 2.69237401136668 |
41 | 94.8 | 94.1265231478245 | 0.673476852175469 |
42 | 94.7 | 95.5430466498953 | -0.8430466498953 |
43 | 95.1 | 95.2630082354153 | -0.163008235415319 |
44 | 97 | 96.1024357340653 | 0.897564265934676 |
45 | 97.9 | 96.5874928820389 | 1.31250711796109 |
46 | 97.3 | 99.4682682453502 | -2.16826824535022 |
47 | 96.5 | 98.7491016322559 | -2.24910163225586 |
48 | 98.1 | 96.2666186038866 | 1.83338139611344 |
49 | 99.3 | 97.2124402056815 | 2.08755979431848 |
50 | 99.9 | 99.5675314922811 | 0.332468507718943 |
51 | 99.9 | 98.8048534393186 | 1.09514656068143 |
52 | 99.9 | 97.8825049796826 | 2.01749502031745 |
53 | 99.8 | 99.595976984224 | 0.204023015775988 |
54 | 99.5 | 100.453015262766 | -0.953015262766115 |
55 | 99.9 | 100.278267283566 | -0.378267283565563 |
56 | 100.1 | 101.194789582706 | -1.09478958270614 |
57 | 100.1 | 100.130239118523 | -0.0302391185228288 |
58 | 100.2 | 101.324080420369 | -1.12408042036873 |
59 | 100.6 | 101.494864035168 | -0.894864035167629 |
60 | 100.8 | 100.883721359778 | -0.0837213597781243 |
61 | 100.8 | 100.298842604173 | 0.501157395826837 |
62 | 100.5 | 101.03130863956 | -0.531308639559811 |
63 | 101 | 99.6521621168605 | 1.34783788313948 |
64 | 100.5 | 99.0746318698329 | 1.42536813016712 |
65 | 99 | 99.9600587635619 | -0.960058763561932 |
66 | 97.9 | 99.5999074355224 | -1.69990743552235 |
67 | 97.6 | 98.8305555385099 | -1.2305555385099 |
68 | 97.2 | 98.8319506094569 | -1.63195060945694 |
69 | 96.5 | 97.4022264362377 | -0.902226436237697 |
70 | 96.3 | 97.5738354989316 | -1.2738354989316 |
71 | 96.3 | 97.5422406895367 | -1.24224068953667 |
72 | 96.2 | 96.6547647359477 | -0.454764735947705 |
73 | 95.6 | 95.7287246012602 | -0.128724601260245 |
74 | 93.5 | 95.6215222035061 | -2.1215222035061 |
75 | 93.2 | 93.0592606216537 | 0.140739378346268 |
76 | 93.6 | 91.2925024410359 | 2.30749755896404 |
77 | 94.6 | 92.3333566192314 | 2.26664338076861 |
78 | 96.1 | 94.4193270128098 | 1.68067298719023 |
79 | 98.4 | 96.4926968655408 | 1.90730313445918 |
80 | 99.6 | 99.0503531982214 | 0.549646801778636 |
81 | 99.4 | 99.6126220934628 | -0.212622093462755 |
82 | 99.7 | 100.363095169805 | -0.663095169804507 |
83 | 100.1 | 100.924119568794 | -0.824119568793861 |
84 | 99.9 | 100.603555039011 | -0.703555039010794 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
85 | 99.607036639757 | 97.0238255061132 | 102.190247773401 |
86 | 99.3581445160531 | 95.9641461644197 | 102.752142867686 |
87 | 99.0670759951912 | 94.9939397202633 | 103.140212270119 |
88 | 97.6691112869511 | 92.9902517500195 | 102.347970823883 |
89 | 96.8600386701339 | 91.6228456182101 | 102.097231722058 |
90 | 96.9945462654857 | 91.2321737940025 | 102.756918736969 |
91 | 97.7074840953878 | 91.4443325905204 | 103.970635600255 |
92 | 98.413571032489 | 91.6682255426576 | 105.15891652232 |
93 | 98.3436098092842 | 91.1305731804761 | 105.556646438092 |
94 | 99.1528914774442 | 91.4836799428362 | 106.822103012052 |
95 | 100.20921693857 | 92.0930901446545 | 108.325343732486 |
96 | 100.581271081789 | 92.0257391274789 | 109.136803036098 |