Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.200818967424103 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 85.74 | 86.17 | -0.429999999999993 |
4 | 85.88 | 86.2536478440076 | -0.373647844007635 |
5 | 85.88 | 86.3186122697938 | -0.438612269793779 |
6 | 85.96 | 86.2305306066743 | -0.270530606674257 |
7 | 85.96 | 86.2562029295853 | -0.296202929585306 |
8 | 85.99 | 86.196719763118 | -0.206719763117988 |
9 | 86.02 | 86.1852065137425 | -0.165206513742476 |
10 | 86.14 | 86.182029912241 | -0.0420299122409773 |
11 | 86.3 | 86.2935895086638 | 0.00641049133616889 |
12 | 86.32 | 86.4548768569146 | -0.134876856914644 |
13 | 86.32 | 86.4477910257796 | -0.127791025779629 |
14 | 86.77 | 86.4221281639365 | 0.347871836063504 |
15 | 87.47 | 86.9419874268507 | 0.528012573149311 |
16 | 87.39 | 87.7480223665775 | -0.358022366577487 |
17 | 87.3 | 87.5961246846067 | -0.296124684606667 |
18 | 87.31 | 87.4466572312152 | -0.136657231215153 |
19 | 87.31 | 87.4292138671515 | -0.119213867151501 |
20 | 87.38 | 87.4052734614475 | -0.0252734614475116 |
21 | 87.4 | 87.4701980710164 | -0.0701980710163639 |
22 | 87.32 | 87.4761009668797 | -0.15610096687972 |
23 | 87.37 | 87.364752931897 | 0.00524706810298881 |
24 | 87.4 | 87.4158066426955 | -0.0158066426954662 |
25 | 87.4 | 87.4426323690309 | -0.042632369030926 |
26 | 87.89 | 87.4340709807033 | 0.455929019296704 |
27 | 87.7 | 88.0156301755771 | -0.315630175577141 |
28 | 87.89 | 87.7622456496298 | 0.127754350370154 |
29 | 88.02 | 87.9779011463551 | 0.0420988536448732 |
30 | 88.08 | 88.1163553946738 | -0.0363553946738193 |
31 | 88.08 | 88.1690545418551 | -0.0890545418551341 |
32 | 88.15 | 88.1511707007154 | -0.00117070071534897 |
33 | 88.21 | 88.2209356018065 | -0.0109356018065512 |
34 | 88.41 | 88.2787395255436 | 0.131260474456425 |
35 | 88.39 | 88.5050991184875 | -0.115099118487521 |
36 | 88.41 | 88.4619850323614 | -0.0519850323614435 |
37 | 88.41 | 88.4715454518411 | -0.0615454518410985 |
38 | 89.1 | 88.4591859577527 | 0.640814042247271 |
39 | 90.35 | 89.2778735720277 | 1.07212642797232 |
40 | 90.61 | 90.7431768942412 | -0.133176894241174 |
41 | 91.18 | 90.9764324478549 | 0.203567552145088 |
42 | 91.22 | 91.5873126734778 | -0.367312673477755 |
43 | 91.22 | 91.5535493216682 | -0.333549321668158 |
44 | 91.4 | 91.4865662913057 | -0.0865662913057434 |
45 | 91.52 | 91.649182138072 | -0.129182138072011 |
46 | 91.68 | 91.7432399144947 | -0.06323991449473 |
47 | 91.71 | 91.8905401401659 | -0.180540140165931 |
48 | 91.77 | 91.8842842556392 | -0.114284255639191 |
49 | 91.77 | 91.9213338094289 | -0.151333809428891 |
50 | 92.16 | 91.890943110083 | 0.269056889916968 |
51 | 93.64 | 92.3349748368945 | 1.30502516310551 |
52 | 93.78 | 94.0770486426118 | -0.297048642611813 |
53 | 93.96 | 94.1573956409278 | -0.197395640927795 |
54 | 93.82 | 94.2977548521426 | -0.477754852142638 |
55 | 93.82 | 94.0618126160535 | -0.241812616053508 |
56 | 93.89 | 94.0132520561875 | -0.123252056187511 |
57 | 94.05 | 94.058500705531 | -0.00850070553104842 |
58 | 94.46 | 94.2167936026239 | 0.243206397376071 |
59 | 94.62 | 94.6756340602159 | -0.0556340602159082 |
60 | 94.72 | 94.8244616856898 | -0.104461685689756 |
61 | 94.72 | 94.9034837978342 | -0.183483797834157 |
62 | 95.76 | 94.866636771014 | 0.893363228985962 |
63 | 96.14 | 96.0860410521937 | 0.053958947806322 |
64 | 97.11 | 96.4768770323754 | 0.633122967624573 |
65 | 97.19 | 97.5740201329863 | -0.384020132986279 |
66 | 97.43 | 97.5769016064099 | -0.146901606409898 |
67 | 97.43 | 97.7874009774977 | -0.357400977497733 |
68 | 97.56 | 97.7156280822403 | -0.15562808224027 |
69 | 97.66 | 97.8143750114626 | -0.154375011462591 |
70 | 97.75 | 97.8833735810646 | -0.133373581064575 |
71 | 97.82 | 97.9465896362335 | -0.126589636233547 |
72 | 97.82 | 97.9911680361985 | -0.171168036198523 |
73 | 97.82 | 97.9567942479131 | -0.13679424791313 |
74 | 98.35 | 97.9293233682976 | 0.420676631702349 |
75 | 98.19 | 98.5438032150956 | -0.353803215095567 |
76 | 98.19 | 98.3127528187687 | -0.122752818768745 |
77 | 98.21 | 98.2881017244552 | -0.0781017244552089 |
78 | 98.22 | 98.2924174167961 | -0.0724174167960712 |
79 | 98.26 | 98.2878746259316 | -0.0278746259315596 |
80 | 98.23 | 98.3222768723347 | -0.092276872334665 |
81 | 98.26 | 98.2737459261153 | -0.0137459261152912 |
82 | 98.5 | 98.3009854834265 | 0.19901451657347 |
83 | 98.51 | 98.5809513731472 | -0.07095137314721 |
84 | 98.51 | 98.5767029916545 | -0.0667029916544664 |
85 | 98.51 | 98.5633077657463 | -0.0533077657463252 |
86 | 98.89 | 98.5526025552735 | 0.337397444726534 |
87 | 99.55 | 99.000358361735 | 0.54964163826503 |
88 | 99.9 | 99.7707368279846 | 0.129263172015357 |
89 | 100.12 | 100.146695324715 | -0.026695324714737 |
90 | 100.09 | 100.36133439717 | -0.271334397170477 |
91 | 100.09 | 100.276845303704 | -0.186845303704061 |
92 | 100.09 | 100.239323222746 | -0.149323222746162 |
93 | 100.46 | 100.209336287342 | 0.250663712658152 |
94 | 100.71 | 100.629674315289 | 0.080325684711454 |
95 | 100.79 | 100.89580523635 | -0.105805236349923 |
96 | 100.79 | 100.954557538038 | -0.164557538038082 |
97 | 100.93 | 100.921511263167 | 0.00848873683258944 |
98 | 101.15 | 101.063215962533 | 0.086784037467126 |
99 | 101.53 | 101.300643843326 | 0.229356156674086 |
100 | 101.91 | 101.726702909882 | 0.18329709011843 |
101 | 102.18 | 102.143512442251 | 0.0364875577490125 |
102 | 102.24 | 102.420839835922 | -0.180839835921986 |
103 | 102.2 | 102.444523766803 | -0.24452376680297 |
104 | 102.32 | 102.355418756443 | -0.0354187564429651 |
105 | 102.43 | 102.468305998347 | -0.0383059983466154 |
106 | 102.45 | 102.570613427313 | -0.12061342731252 |
107 | 102.84 | 102.566391963382 | 0.273608036617873 |
108 | 102.96 | 103.011337646775 | -0.0513376467746838 |
109 | 102.96 | 103.121028073559 | -0.161028073559393 |
110 | 103.1 | 103.088690582101 | 0.0113094178990991 |
111 | 103.4 | 103.230961727726 | 0.169038272274449 |
112 | 103.74 | 103.564907819019 | 0.17509218098111 |
113 | 103.97 | 103.940069650008 | 0.029930349992469 |
114 | 104.29 | 104.176080231988 | 0.113919768012337 |
115 | 104.33 | 104.518957482169 | -0.188957482169101 |
116 | 104.46 | 104.521011235713 | -0.0610112357128401 |
117 | 104.9 | 104.638759022356 | 0.261240977644292 |
118 | 105.31 | 105.131221165735 | 0.178778834264889 |
119 | 105.63 | 105.577123346629 | 0.0528766533705181 |
120 | 105.68 | 105.90774198156 | -0.227741981560172 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
121 | 105.912007071984 | 105.358000313438 | 106.466013830531 |
122 | 106.144014143968 | 105.278279321608 | 107.009748966328 |
123 | 106.376021215952 | 105.21306151697 | 107.538980914935 |
124 | 106.608028287937 | 105.144944454381 | 108.071112121492 |
125 | 106.840035359921 | 105.068406366769 | 108.611664353072 |
126 | 107.072042431905 | 104.981254160317 | 109.162830703493 |
127 | 107.304049503889 | 104.882572969875 | 109.725526037903 |
128 | 107.536056575873 | 104.772022622942 | 110.300090528804 |
129 | 107.768063647857 | 104.649545371465 | 110.886581924249 |
130 | 108.000070719841 | 104.515229026801 | 111.484912412882 |
131 | 108.232077791826 | 104.369237486026 | 112.094918097626 |
132 | 108.46408486381 | 104.211773442132 | 112.716396285487 |