| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.999933893038648 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 109078 | 109337 | -259 |
| 3 | 108293 | 109078.017121703 | -785.017121702986 |
| 4 | 106534 | 108293.051895097 | -1759.05189509652 |
| 5 | 99197 | 106534.116285576 | -7337.11628557566 |
| 6 | 103493 | 99197.4850344627 | 4295.51496553727 |
| 7 | 130676 | 103492.716036558 | 27183.2839634418 |
| 8 | 137448 | 130674.202995698 | 6773.79700430238 |
| 9 | 134704 | 137447.552204863 | -2743.55220486323 |
| 10 | 123725 | 134704.1813679 | -10979.1813678996 |
| 11 | 118277 | 123725.725800318 | -5448.72580031837 |
| 12 | 121225 | 118277.360198706 | 2947.63980129409 |
| 13 | 120528 | 121224.80514049 | -696.805140489581 |
| 14 | 118240 | 120528.04606367 | -2288.04606367048 |
| 15 | 112514 | 118240.151255773 | -5726.1512557727 |
| 16 | 107304 | 112514.37853846 | -5210.37853845976 |
| 17 | 100001 | 107304.344442293 | -7303.34444229267 |
| 18 | 102082 | 100001.482801909 | 2080.51719809121 |
| 19 | 130455 | 102081.86246333 | 28373.13753667 |
| 20 | 135574 | 130453.124338093 | 5120.87566190657 |
| 21 | 132540 | 135573.661474471 | -3033.66147447054 |
| 22 | 119920 | 132540.200546142 | -12620.2005461418 |
| 23 | 112454 | 119920.83428311 | -7466.83428310975 |
| 24 | 109415 | 112454.493609725 | -3039.49360972538 |
| 25 | 109843 | 109415.200931687 | 427.799068313412 |
| 26 | 106365 | 109842.971719504 | -3477.97171950352 |
| 27 | 102304 | 106365.229918142 | -4061.22991814204 |
| 28 | 97968 | 102304.268475569 | -4336.26847556925 |
| 29 | 92462 | 97968.2866575325 | -5506.28665753253 |
| 30 | 92286 | 92462.3640038793 | -176.364003879266 |
| 31 | 120092 | 92286.0116588884 | 27805.9883411116 |
| 32 | 126656 | 120090.161830603 | 6565.83816939662 |
| 33 | 124144 | 126655.56595239 | -2511.56595238989 |
| 34 | 114045 | 124144.166031993 | -10099.1660319933 |
| 35 | 108120 | 114045.667625179 | -5925.66762517855 |
| 36 | 105698 | 108120.391727881 | -2422.39172788068 |
| 37 | 111203 | 105698.160136956 | 5504.83986304367 |
| 38 | 110030 | 111202.636091764 | -1172.63609176392 |
| 39 | 104009 | 110030.077519409 | -6021.07751940879 |
| 40 | 99772 | 104009.398035139 | -4237.39803513887 |
| 41 | 96301 | 99772.2801215081 | -3471.28012150814 |
| 42 | 97680 | 96301.2294757808 | 1378.77052421917 |
| 43 | 121563 | 97679.9088536702 | 23883.0911463298 |
| 44 | 134210 | 121561.421161417 | 12648.5788385834 |
| 45 | 133111 | 134209.163840888 | -1098.16384088754 |
| 46 | 124527 | 133111.072596275 | -8584.07259627458 |
| 47 | 117589 | 124527.567466955 | -6938.56746695536 |
| 48 | 115699 | 117589.458687611 | -1890.45868761138 |
| 49 | 117830 | 115699.124972479 | 2130.87502752061 |
| 50 | 115874 | 117829.859134327 | -1955.85913432691 |
| 51 | 111267 | 115874.129295904 | -4607.1292959042 |
| 52 | 107985 | 111267.304563318 | -3282.30456331831 |
| 53 | 102185 | 107985.216983181 | -5800.21698318092 |
| 54 | 102101 | 102185.38343472 | -84.3834347199445 |
| 55 | 128932 | 102101.005578332 | 26830.9944216675 |
| 56 | 135782 | 128930.226284489 | 6851.77371551127 |
| 57 | 136971 | 135781.54705006 | 1189.4529499402 |
| 58 | 126292 | 136970.92136888 | -10678.9213688798 |
| 59 | 119260 | 126292.705951042 | -7032.70595104221 |
| 60 | 117359 | 119260.464910821 | -1901.4649108205 |
| 61 | 119818 | 117359.125700067 | 2458.87429993264 |
| 62 | 116059 | 119817.837451292 | -3758.83745129168 |
| 63 | 110046 | 116059.248485322 | -6013.24848532212 |
| 64 | 104100 | 110046.397517585 | -5946.39751758522 |
| 65 | 97981 | 104100.393098271 | -6119.39309827088 |
| 66 | 97527 | 97981.4045344831 | -454.404534483052 |
| 67 | 123700 | 97527.030039303 | 26172.969960697 |
| 68 | 129678 | 123698.269784486 | 5979.73021551366 |
| 69 | 130790 | 129677.604698206 | 1112.39530179425 |
| 70 | 120961 | 130789.926462927 | -9828.92646292679 |
| 71 | 114232 | 120961.649760462 | -6729.64976046182 |
| 72 | 110518 | 114232.444876697 | -3714.44487669662 |
| 73 | 110959 | 110518.245550664 | 440.754449336091 |
| 74 | 108443 | 110958.970863063 | -2515.97086306266 |
| 75 | 103977 | 108443.166323189 | -4466.16632318861 |
| 76 | 97126 | 103977.295244685 | -6851.29524468452 |
| 77 | 90860 | 97126.45291831 | -6266.45291830995 |
| 78 | 91959 | 90860.4142561609 | 1098.58574383912 |
| 79 | 113735 | 91958.9273758347 | 21776.0726241653 |
| 80 | 119713 | 113733.560450009 | 5979.43954999137 |
| 81 | 121905 | 119712.604717421 | 2192.39528257924 |
| 82 | 112442 | 121904.85506741 | -9462.85506740979 |
| 83 | 106728 | 112442.625560594 | -5714.62556059421 |
| 84 | 104906 | 106728.377776531 | -1822.37777653108 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 104906.120471857 | 86815.308246609 | 122996.932697105 |
| 86 | 104906.120471857 | 79322.6941038302 | 130489.546839884 |
| 87 | 104906.120471857 | 73573.2954717502 | 136238.945471964 |
| 88 | 104906.120471857 | 68726.2898994734 | 141085.951044241 |
| 89 | 104906.120471857 | 64455.9738960354 | 145356.267047679 |
| 90 | 104906.120471857 | 60595.3026531288 | 149216.938290586 |
| 91 | 104906.120471857 | 57045.0424070705 | 152767.198536644 |
| 92 | 104906.120471857 | 53740.5362253866 | 156071.704718328 |
| 93 | 104906.120471857 | 50636.8729273984 | 159175.368016316 |
| 94 | 104906.120471857 | 47701.3527789383 | 162110.888164776 |
| 95 | 104906.120471857 | 44909.2900175749 | 164902.95092614 |
| 96 | 104906.120471857 | 42241.5061961835 | 167570.734747531 |
