| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 426.113 | 426.113 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 383.703 | 422.430558928762 | -1.22778937840304 | -8.2394475552094 | -0.101424274798099 |
| 3 | 232.444 | 388.888617529143 | -9.30939374802171 | -39.9163482166326 | -0.421942377802391 |
| 4 | 70.939 | 318.128016537216 | -21.6077624465149 | -63.1929733582889 | -0.680735968350385 |
| 5 | 226.731 | 281.287783163259 | -24.1492512356915 | -10.9967065577583 | -0.161656008960918 |
| 6 | 947.293 | 399.504073372785 | -3.77719466595508 | 135.690422240376 | 1.52338524849708 |
| 7 | 611.281 | 450.574391332164 | 3.0959365203944 | -4.75919249590837 | 0.607449518461489 |
| 8 | 158.047 | 402.118226380401 | -2.65289527315681 | -79.609192823846 | -0.598953292949554 |
| 9 | 33.999 | 329.969668660651 | -9.63812570370871 | -59.989628473631 | -0.852492571065795 |
| 10 | 37.028 | 267.582964538297 | -14.4673936912365 | -39.5060645826755 | -0.684870123962469 |
| 11 | 388.3 | 272.840213577761 | -12.8079584254756 | 39.2833369139686 | 0.271133208315022 |
| 12 | 506.652 | 301.910586963879 | -9.54572714868453 | 32.5642482527357 | 0.608846588634451 |
| 13 | 392.25 | 294.070168907141 | -9.41565799236473 | 78.9894787209131 | 0.0649519114584591 |
| 14 | 180.818 | 269.406785984404 | -10.4580049161088 | -21.4720748455634 | -0.246743578299306 |
| 15 | 198.296 | 249.543736917413 | -11.0597270032303 | -14.3981175245825 | -0.138455244426215 |
| 16 | 217.465 | 241.68255054938 | -10.8663667996641 | -37.2984856200537 | 0.0490803583081914 |
| 17 | 275.562 | 245.719183755637 | -10.010215536446 | -35.4167196195411 | 0.24352124139027 |
| 18 | 1030.944 | 322.546398253017 | -5.24755742048647 | 301.62493231418 | 1.50962550541286 |
| 19 | 57.47 | 296.399204596297 | -6.34644275223343 | -134.759242563876 | -0.384733798596978 |
| 20 | 136.452 | 275.571034447026 | -7.07926267524855 | -62.7323803681338 | -0.280937364368249 |
| 21 | 556.277 | 300.4320908672 | -5.51794915695239 | 78.415649425789 | 0.650162903628165 |
| 22 | 213.361 | 295.462537650506 | -5.49196059378938 | -85.2969281100752 | 0.0116708780443111 |
| 23 | 274.482 | 286.67472459548 | -5.64398788657632 | 7.92133043204918 | -0.0732314808793501 |
| 24 | 220.553 | 271.933304164902 | -6.056143120207 | 7.71287400557029 | -0.214088098612889 |
| 25 | 236.71 | 257.285536548163 | -6.46636563692685 | 50.8042656396604 | -0.257772815016969 |
| 26 | 260.642 | 251.620540460784 | -6.43085101577483 | 3.45443655982136 | 0.0204986255685929 |
| 27 | 2763.544 | 467.598382077819 | 3.0174008712115 | 828.535172447908 | 5.44463497912791 |
| 28 | 213.923 | 487.150460711226 | 3.70362266012077 | -383.270139804147 | 0.408659404417162 |
| 29 | 169.861 | 477.979993948769 | 3.17707540188861 | -220.19292715773 | -0.32617838253966 |
| 30 | 403.064 | 446.478588845901 | 1.772818375859 | 200.4004405764 | -0.903133976067104 |
| 31 | 449.594 | 452.902769703415 | 1.95986541783504 | -36.9391811131973 | 0.124389017524259 |
| 32 | 406.167 | 458.417812274363 | 2.10217613700734 | -78.6286419085883 | 0.0974311898727078 |
| 33 | 206.893 | 435.014414714904 | 1.08377074853034 | -34.3570112349907 | -0.714818708104199 |
| 34 | 156.187 | 416.798977405028 | 0.313319493352707 | -110.742856699842 | -0.552238802925422 |
| 35 | 257.102 | 400.515393853764 | -0.352034425117347 | -11.6173397901646 | -0.485022040757892 |
| 36 | 62.156 | 373.220542337871 | -1.45154325554121 | -90.5279553881455 | -0.810290704646101 |
| 37 | 662.883 | 391.250522116604 | -0.606800988355206 | 101.901907182846 | 0.625012019848168 |
| 38 | 251.422 | 405.165074199769 | -0.00044278487157697 | -275.541918207599 | 0.450403129154767 |
| 39 | 171.328 | 334.053114770494 | -2.89130802726353 | 422.721005079909 | -2.17106378158668 |
| 40 | 350.089 | 346.702171982139 | -2.2657991082646 | -124.546001427062 | 0.474757658160947 |
| 41 | 221.588 | 349.166201304203 | -2.07559358476255 | -166.781709574224 | 0.145469407856601 |
| 42 | 4.813 | 310.556752379689 | -3.5495239510301 | -0.374774510802023 | -1.13273379690917 |
| 43 | 183.186 | 295.016140447209 | -4.03575713959615 | -10.7895586094927 | -0.374660726802888 |
| 44 | 190.379 | 283.702361843222 | -4.33263846321297 | -31.5567910479772 | -0.228952104919326 |
| 45 | 223.166 | 273.733682578335 | -4.56405899556573 | -2.44295839959218 | -0.178329419700326 |
| 46 | 232.669 | 270.702586099764 | -4.50062764636137 | -51.1913994370173 | 0.048743208324774 |
| 47 | 356.725 | 270.695517683865 | -4.31268750786605 | 47.2833880050938 | 0.143501449916181 |
| 48 | 109.215 | 264.415961314664 | -4.39648806956938 | -138.163953052904 | -0.0631122398642033 |
| 49 | 475.834 | 266.484384247529 | -4.11249960481869 | 152.992890196515 | 0.209240832077057 |
| 50 | 315.955 | 277.746309562493 | -3.44634219447931 | -95.0063645438825 | 0.494942751580839 |
| 51 | 694.87 | 277.961887429813 | -3.28984216078082 | 385.308338465564 | 0.11750895055611 |
| 52 | 8.95 | 265.316637738114 | -3.68730068468272 | -175.684772087146 | -0.300127482718496 |
| 53 | 278.741 | 268.176455499378 | -3.40934106857533 | -45.9272500490227 | 0.210157122158839 |
| 54 | 308.16 | 266.963852062008 | -3.31590026904026 | 22.2324140670394 | 0.0705470406246712 |
| 55 | 207.533 | 260.116106234543 | -3.46658388779107 | -22.0904127150393 | -0.113433894815182 |
| 56 | 192.797 | 253.539176691658 | -3.59974244289832 | -33.8976559548864 | -0.0998619028285323 |
| 57 | 601.162 | 273.368797403733 | -2.59295020559047 | 125.749234777986 | 0.751617578626498 |
| 58 | 289.714 | 279.557780811157 | -2.21395905486316 | -65.4633365407899 | 0.281327718045305 |
| 59 | 293.671 | 277.259808827356 | -2.21760515990933 | 17.1328030240371 | -0.00268517441378156 |
| 60 | 386.688 | 293.400178983544 | -1.41432420568387 | -63.7709912659237 | 0.584834111480594 |
| 61 | 699.645 | 313.755625877271 | -0.452453043292318 | 200.386121161956 | 0.691743690724116 |
| 62 | 85.094 | 308.243917591786 | -0.674918478461259 | -180.022237864185 | -0.160819930646377 |
| 63 | 131.812 | 269.057407970003 | -2.35791387896631 | 191.376310598488 | -1.22562158049492 |
| 64 | 645.285 | 299.053377713067 | -0.949057197422799 | 69.9025716571002 | 1.03067891357064 |
| 65 | 197.549 | 298.865043724902 | -0.915976219014585 | -107.81507231794 | 0.0242412642022182 |
| 66 | 308.174 | 297.573377314666 | -0.932312025417298 | 13.8090382600768 | -0.0119675251210371 |
| 67 | 86.58 | 284.839005949283 | -1.44575928761613 | -97.5561364076813 | -0.375636353169538 |
| 68 | 242.205 | 284.308100858046 | -1.40592612809543 | -49.8995068786033 | 0.029083037968298 |
| 69 | 238.502 | 272.7424497113 | -1.84872969942143 | 52.2009433461105 | -0.322476427229893 |
| 70 | 187.881 | 268.959376903709 | -1.93314113046046 | -64.6554348703574 | -0.0612747950110704 |
| 71 | 140.321 | 259.355444693097 | -2.26842837105122 | -54.0953739582085 | -0.242354806903414 |
| 72 | 440.31 | 274.390675711787 | -1.51048571941748 | 19.9619732251912 | 0.545028983122267 |
| 73 | 421.403 | 270.27499639309 | -1.62481231268066 | 173.041914591232 | -0.0818901165771528 |
| 74 | 218.761 | 274.145957798286 | -1.38402668925143 | -101.674038831063 | 0.172959083855415 |
| 75 | 1305.923 | 333.963690549818 | 1.2915898080674 | 455.520113824953 | 1.92965080861762 |
| 76 | 137.55 | 326.230077484383 | 0.897608389573225 | -112.411784648 | -0.28497373942214 |
| 77 | 262.517 | 329.493999503108 | 1.00082597974721 | -86.9893646741579 | 0.0747748950903982 |
| 78 | 348.821 | 330.138468683696 | 0.985287038285421 | 21.6968125395426 | -0.0112626274175813 |
| 79 | 150.034 | 325.473372678425 | 0.738926187976665 | -127.659034977858 | -0.178529195998524 |
| 80 | 64.016 | 310.098076550136 | 0.036322476968234 | -109.905632557378 | -0.508830534453842 |
| 81 | 261.596 | 300.833582814287 | -0.369235408982774 | 39.2855246100535 | -0.293420275963206 |
| 82 | 259.7 | 300.368631409595 | -0.373409458980117 | -39.8616035494354 | -0.00301593856459507 |
| 83 | 171.26 | 296.92616999753 | -0.507259598735968 | -99.8338972016936 | -0.0965561443084817 |
| 84 | 203.077 | 288.913775711317 | -0.834595521351423 | -22.7833410011819 | -0.235764014413302 |
| 85 | 249.148 | 275.039777230283 | -1.40325005204533 | 83.551233007438 | -0.409355363665178 |
| 86 | 211.655 | 280.503707935393 | -1.10388135558231 | -126.541470812063 | 0.215775365746462 |
| 87 | 252.64 | 246.370200274792 | -2.54328074060777 | 284.09329690084 | -1.03905899125562 |
| 88 | 438.555 | 259.663415592506 | -1.85328797517481 | 45.5515186643385 | 0.498695374989568 |
| 89 | 239.89 | 263.495737774869 | -1.60559367304589 | -71.509107285832 | 0.179160228211952 |
| 90 | 401.915 | 269.313803671859 | -1.28219879766797 | 70.0346775545275 | 0.234000524004829 |
| 91 | 216.886 | 272.181979860825 | -1.10140504304967 | -90.2757803694386 | 0.130825627927914 |
| 92 | 184.641 | 272.246158387279 | -1.05063434514266 | -97.426553981224 | 0.0367327120234049 |
| 93 | 380.155 | 275.865584567577 | -0.847235626906065 | 64.9564512443289 | 0.147111828365421 |
| 94 | 653.641 | 303.246167009255 | 0.381985050798545 | 112.806964214903 | 0.888668802825262 |
| 95 | 313.906 | 314.028192819565 | 0.834750743048297 | -87.5858270394494 | 0.327185318052138 |
| 96 | 366.936 | 320.576092755162 | 1.08338545938551 | -1.65238771437537 | 0.179639166235575 |
| 97 | 236.302 | 311.535928915664 | 0.642945115867155 | 9.82876185834913 | -0.318309586334448 |
| 98 | 229.641 | 311.245387618347 | 0.602330987886522 | -73.7572309732121 | -0.0293634711302609 |
| 99 | 235.577 | 289.496115079649 | -0.370349164329079 | 134.060754311669 | -0.703407441915038 |
| 100 | 103.898 | 271.362460194695 | -1.14353146803317 | -18.0139603127127 | -0.559248622305241 |
| 101 | 263.906 | 272.782909280849 | -1.03191077016487 | -30.4554166692273 | 0.0807491023632743 |
| 102 | 241.171 | 265.6376502877 | -1.29807558989183 | 26.992989832991 | -0.192569205965686 |
| 103 | 216.548 | 266.892131475455 | -1.18693832206808 | -71.8316875467073 | 0.0804096815898979 |
| 104 | 295.281 | 275.971126186436 | -0.73997868420771 | -67.1029616359699 | 0.323370922872275 |
| 105 | 193.299 | 270.007747150401 | -0.967373421595724 | -32.7496810920391 | -0.164503820011268 |
| 106 | 204.386 | 257.411992683924 | -1.47351461253452 | 44.8069259324809 | -0.366122059609751 |
| 107 | 257.567 | 260.19554289254 | -1.28826592811865 | -38.4324644959058 | 0.133998575069421 |
| 108 | 136.813 | 249.52349684681 | -1.69649020150269 | -33.8054972757169 | -0.295336566411425 |
| 109 | 240.755 | 244.156431278927 | -1.85614181960296 | 27.4650243183928 | -0.115538482186766 |
| 110 | 59.609 | 231.223097772778 | -2.33798919428656 | -78.4500801764593 | -0.348724150002896 |
| 111 | 213.511 | 215.146965874997 | -2.93572618681604 | 113.9126729656 | -0.432518486807891 |
| 112 | 380.531 | 222.623588612269 | -2.48258761855735 | 70.329047432063 | 0.327832404565804 |
| 113 | 242.344 | 224.25518481074 | -2.30351115340907 | -16.5175631876487 | 0.129545875183479 |
| 114 | 250.407 | 223.031001853405 | -2.25652715755075 | 18.2966856119116 | 0.0339880961141813 |
| 115 | 183.613 | 223.99493380892 | -2.11633341147617 | -67.4733804441003 | 0.101416372361531 |
| 116 | 191.835 | 223.837779271975 | -2.0310477715579 | -48.4837126253414 | 0.0616961244795951 |
| 117 | 266.793 | 226.052394524457 | -1.84624149715021 | 5.02800594436631 | 0.133690047714844 |
| 118 | 246.542 | 223.3315014344 | -1.88430904268347 | 30.5668025226115 | -0.0275387460263877 |
| 119 | 330.563 | 230.05469916737 | -1.50974269514494 | 28.1227416932091 | 0.270989592338987 |
| 120 | 403.556 | 243.078015159088 | -0.877421061401566 | 38.2644562305555 | 0.457554600937091 |
| 121 | 208.108 | 238.926144838215 | -1.01987702540183 | -3.27982532195624 | -0.103103585158593 |
| 122 | 324.04 | 247.916593887477 | -0.58434884869338 | -8.06631657675259 | 0.315205219021671 |
| 123 | 308.532 | 246.687213463005 | -0.612416588022494 | 67.2691722536561 | -0.0203091338873188 |
| 124 | 199.297 | 238.950908464096 | -0.922444221441582 | 20.2482162548001 | -0.224283152268746 |
| 125 | 200.156 | 236.040740819052 | -1.00895692263733 | -19.1714481359038 | -0.0625789432644302 |
| 126 | 262.875 | 235.906283558263 | -0.970893654515263 | 19.615658478697 | 0.0275321900792038 |
| 127 | 287.069 | 243.585508030644 | -0.594384772071865 | -29.2508366770005 | 0.272341764553546 |
| 128 | 190.157 | 244.639279707467 | -0.52264744634588 | -68.3408769285083 | 0.0518912092434152 |
| 129 | 199.746 | 241.616598805457 | -0.631458905316955 | -20.8493576465051 | -0.0787105591068658 |
| 130 | 265.777 | 241.757946351798 | -0.597825438386781 | 17.5212626457276 | 0.0243301098743707 |
| 131 | 435.956 | 254.08477203696 | -0.0353736291013834 | 73.2035110074252 | 0.406900724511317 |
| 132 | 72.844 | 241.052917151623 | -0.600909438178514 | -58.934814138801 | -0.409183481895807 |
| 133 | 756.46 | 274.826671201379 | 0.894835173139692 | 192.593112882177 | 1.08234476402895 |
| 134 | 206.771 | 276.175105667727 | 0.914573137132885 | -73.2181840457822 | 0.0142822404077705 |
| 135 | 4202.361 | 537.392937528896 | 12.2420552793549 | 1476.43573249653 | 8.19529485397143 |
| 136 | 401.422 | 576.105155593087 | 13.3940031452488 | -397.210151012361 | 0.833305806162411 |
| 137 | 216.046 | 574.99665073208 | 12.7628502396327 | -237.039383956903 | -0.456535776966441 |
| 138 | 39.047 | 551.474347353414 | 11.1836829380476 | -207.408903617513 | -1.1422534379075 |
| 139 | 441.437 | 553.24522319853 | 10.7740265198 | -32.6814972352114 | -0.296320184194854 |
