| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 872705 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 953712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | 639704.778 | 473336.113 | 806073.4429 | 0.3045 | 0.0064 | 0.5541 | 0.0064 |
| 62 | 847224 | 933944.637 | 765285.5617 | 1102603.7124 | 0.1568 | 0.9982 | 0.4092 | 0.8329 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1104260.7966 | 934408.6402 | 1274112.9529 | 0.3603 | 0.9985 | 0.2586 | 0.9983 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1532252.0724 | 1362443.2287 | 1702060.9161 | 0.418 | 1 | 0.9357 | 1 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1639808.1545 | 1468773.8118 | 1810842.4973 | 0.0595 | 0.9248 | 0.4018 | 1 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1511338.9841 | 1339451.9067 | 1683226.0614 | 0.4835 | 0.5346 | 0.5723 | 1 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 2994139.5372 | 2822302.3512 | 3165976.7232 | 0.0715 | 1 | 0.805 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2670704.1616 | 2498267.6669 | 2843140.6563 | 0.091 | 0.0133 | 0.1164 | 1 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1359287.3246 | 1186276.8651 | 1532297.7842 | 0.3572 | 0 | 0.2943 | 1 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1357232.9131 | 1184244.3271 | 1530221.4991 | 0.4587 | 0.3485 | 0.4416 | 1 |
| 71 | 946295 | 974963.4534 | 801750.1949 | 1148176.712 | 0.3728 | 0 | 0.547 | 0.9199 |
| 72 | 859626 | 845335.5489 | 671788.7159 | 1018882.3818 | 0.4359 | 0.1271 | 0.4752 | 0.4752 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 61 | 0.1327 | 0.0679 | 0 | 1884707847.8282 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | 0.0921 | -0.0929 | 0.0804 | 7520468887.851 | 4702588367.8396 | 68575.421 |
| 63 | 0.0785 | -0.0281 | 0.0629 | 961297410.2957 | 3455491381.9916 | 58783.4278 |
| 64 | 0.0565 | -0.0117 | 0.0501 | 321344071.9636 | 2671954554.4846 | 51690.9523 |
| 65 | 0.0532 | -0.083 | 0.0567 | 18516175529.5407 | 5840798749.4958 | 76425.1186 |
| 66 | 0.058 | -0.0024 | 0.0476 | 13155013.3143 | 4869524793.4656 | 69781.9804 |
| 67 | 0.0293 | -0.0429 | 0.047 | 16497228480.8939 | 6530625320.2411 | 80812.2845 |
| 68 | 0.0329 | 0.044 | 0.0466 | 13788357821.3126 | 7437841882.875 | 86242.9237 |
| 69 | 0.0649 | 0.0238 | 0.0441 | 1043850505.2698 | 6727398396.4744 | 82020.7193 |
| 70 | 0.065 | 0.0067 | 0.0403 | 83632614.8962 | 6063021818.3166 | 77865.4084 |
| 71 | 0.0906 | -0.0294 | 0.0393 | 821880222.3385 | 5586554400.5004 | 74743.2566 |
| 72 | 0.1047 | 0.0169 | 0.0375 | 204216993.133 | 5138026283.2198 | 71680.0271 |
