| ARIMA Parameter Estimation and Backward Selection | |||||
| Iteration | ar1 | ar2 | ar3 | sar1 | sma1 |
| Estimates ( 1 ) | 0.1361 | 0.243 | 0.0042 | -0.0795 | -0.6533 |
| (p-val) | (0.0106 ) | (0 ) | (0.9365 ) | (0.2988 ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 2 ) | 0.1371 | 0.2435 | 0 | -0.0797 | -0.6535 |
| (p-val) | (0.008 ) | (0 ) | (NA ) | (0.2973 ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 3 ) | 0.135 | 0.2464 | 0 | 0 | -0.6953 |
| (p-val) | (0.0089 ) | (0 ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (0 ) |
| Estimates ( 4 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 5 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 6 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 7 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 8 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimates ( 9 ) | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| (p-val) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) | (NA ) |
| Estimated ARIMA Residuals |
| Value |
| -0.535784830976831 |
| 1.76903397191346 |
| 5.14628252916545 |
| 9.4926520027237 |
| 48.0757459925896 |
| -5.06528498901834 |
| 20.7584381496093 |
| -26.5568571295093 |
| -16.8988462953076 |
| 44.40130259583 |
| -42.7178616086099 |
| -7.60463439085142 |
| 24.714388118564 |
| -30.8433190421496 |
| -31.1643180664074 |
| -32.4428235024559 |
| -16.0439783388515 |
| 2.40363875144062 |
| -32.5951123833247 |
| -28.7937725346551 |
| 26.816413022255 |
| -25.684958916906 |
| 25.9796570937098 |
| -5.07605046066862 |
| -65.1521496061982 |
| -34.7982371860641 |
| 23.599690712917 |
| 5.70418788137112 |
| -0.151767950147911 |
| -0.290378094906347 |
| -12.5624234913062 |
| 20.2266249680593 |
| 28.7044304771356 |
| -3.20566227508572 |
| 4.39937534246934 |
| -33.8742686637881 |
| -18.7777379531313 |
| -1.22402047698739 |
| -1.72395529219807 |
| 24.539804126782 |
| 12.2257481791746 |
| -18.2527616563548 |
| 2.89326438817624 |
| 26.7848754154271 |
| -11.9243674402666 |
| -10.9010323693039 |
| -2.47663537377535 |
| -5.02404132959319 |
| 3.63602627734319 |
| -29.1234512918508 |
| 17.778833844422 |
| 30.7382194275226 |
| -14.8383568473524 |
| -18.6503909597798 |
| 0.145804337718408 |
| 17.3503595327912 |
| 21.661014884809 |
| 8.86165761246452 |
| 21.0871971049756 |
| 28.2567763536581 |
| 50.7247607296956 |
| 19.6870387851375 |
| 9.31026526815972 |
| -8.58112938200254 |
| -10.405620201571 |
| -27.2704222289155 |
| 3.28595724388374 |
| 14.0389278869765 |
| 1.89952483454334 |
| -36.2758718335084 |
| -0.55960945834314 |
| -9.79499591585763 |
| -4.37692306685266 |
| -17.7030834036084 |
| -6.60867563703818 |
| 14.8051720376241 |
| -27.9044534130267 |
| 1.56528234357327 |
| -16.0249763735606 |
| 16.4239315941089 |
| -11.5878786835515 |
| 18.0459864645769 |
| 2.69788310540313 |
| -3.59338082189156 |
| -29.567532249738 |
| -3.14406117948626 |
| 25.2046569288462 |
| -20.3477913443421 |
| 32.9065928510913 |
| 18.7488484497254 |
| -24.4104892633646 |
| -32.6048832536814 |
| -3.61178732053284 |
| 12.0439965759627 |
| 29.3551015047632 |
| -2.72090261418846 |
| -19.2438099413364 |
| -16.8799372230402 |
| -7.66028528526407 |
| 10.3942325211243 |
| 21.47535867844 |
| 21.6114008831411 |
| -25.8554797710933 |
| -6.34672786572312 |
| 14.6502264137583 |
| 14.7866001601947 |
| 30.6062985152381 |
| 6.94023464218742 |
| 40.4509362338861 |
| 53.4787344606328 |
| -1.78205621572222 |
| -3.67951362007862 |
| -19.0815509231999 |
| 5.02229114364384 |
| 5.97739598780304 |
| -19.7534101636705 |
| -43.2839411583197 |
| -5.31879784721217 |
| -25.452995412496 |
| 28.2020581462457 |
| -7.35727838508619 |
| -17.7582030977024 |
| -23.2668327028022 |
| -46.8985450870398 |
| 4.60337282519803 |
| 24.4938073979864 |
| -0.0894167220781985 |
| 8.20648203102952 |
| 5.12216480712498 |
| 18.5702197491549 |
| 2.30587714765411 |
| -32.9871627068673 |
| -12.5892512083707 |
| -31.6654165962767 |
| 54.5593575376825 |
| -18.9454763996064 |
| -14.0400568812147 |
| 47.1473333063379 |
| -16.5698046677318 |
| 8.94781236584361 |
| -16.4609937150212 |
| 33.8648377086654 |
| 9.20038726761918 |
| 31.128962417314 |
| 9.01529322664593 |
| 14.5687893767886 |
| -23.6105418878432 |
| -15.5372206288923 |
| 2.54721910487765 |
| 17.4907170651471 |
| -16.7186104541045 |
| -24.2798602966992 |
| -7.24693152325897 |
| -6.97498058127626 |
| -23.0880477901024 |
| -1.02824871829531 |
| -7.1104874880454 |
| -19.7532631526219 |
| -0.0748883998965978 |
| 7.2738901275672 |
| 30.3974478316699 |
| -33.3476523387737 |
| -17.3800821499326 |
| 44.7726767704997 |
| -8.80525878988357 |
| -25.2655605027819 |
| 24.1784712813431 |
| -13.7923839678723 |
| 13.7297547645765 |
| 20.5006351245874 |
| -37.6508806868545 |
| 1.64465281368277 |
| 15.1939533469807 |
| 10.0938344111377 |
| -15.6373793710177 |
| -13.4181636071579 |
| 10.1268173034072 |
| 4.82628047691192 |
| 11.8459605297286 |
| -23.4412367927873 |
| -1.06481124813955 |
| -9.32672496432393 |
| -1.08399438187233 |
| 10.8874757144825 |
| -21.9468469623101 |
| 43.6235103443176 |
| -45.0012271521586 |
| 10.7284056776388 |
| 12.7974666199096 |
| -0.130451956435516 |
| -27.3045708898671 |
| 4.12396240377367 |
| -15.2500150024029 |
| 19.4598642561244 |
| -21.4119586842466 |
| 22.8614865314854 |
| -11.1308182284788 |
| 18.1385240484527 |
| -16.6410192586275 |
| -5.1921326888724 |
| 3.6192051546009 |
| -3.51670900929658 |
| -12.9163478768749 |
| -13.898663044252 |
| -17.470889464474 |
| -15.9921245422155 |
| 26.4551794823846 |
| 14.8901898508295 |
| 19.3873080845169 |
| 3.0276875801971 |
| -8.73934423798327 |
| -1.12049363686786 |
| -0.117355769955134 |
| 6.04001412227224 |
| -15.7537444219845 |
| 6.64251571357321 |
| -9.09564937093057 |
| -1.96304269635448 |
| 6.43794300337987 |
| 4.25793207529969 |
| -9.02835777049555 |
| 42.8760019769903 |
| 12.1252464661439 |
| -19.5294307332982 |
| 23.9583301332121 |
| 12.3156680601464 |
| -35.1272701295165 |
| -21.2696664499641 |
| -12.0628842667418 |
| 26.8579776602081 |
| -8.89306793400264 |
| -15.2686500325446 |
| -0.749959796783489 |
| 48.7711015832542 |
| 5.04418415655933 |
| -31.2546807807804 |
| 8.13922853636404 |
| -1.76178329827789 |
| -8.40063167145589 |
| -11.3759090892664 |
| -1.23156783161761 |
| 1.20422363840203 |
| 11.1883200911636 |
| 13.4407481778698 |
| -13.053831000849 |
| 6.24340715431676 |
| 26.3225338647497 |
| -5.70089842173531 |
| 23.4176610078893 |
| -10.7875527764369 |
| -29.6493947900414 |
| 3.63544392151567 |
| 35.7096773086633 |
| 27.0722935321706 |
| 7.74179440797446 |
| 3.30655551028347 |
| -5.30560189250141 |
| 19.8293487230023 |
| 19.4895777363157 |
| -5.66462879132965 |
| 13.7111366726853 |
| 0.432176552483553 |
| 25.6187628001013 |
| 5.8070263083149 |
| 12.9268532652652 |
| -18.8094612520058 |
| -10.6617626985004 |
| -16.843976144291 |
| -7.19959128575644 |
| 4.59881898650176 |
| 18.4753306910867 |
| 2.75714357643068 |
| -20.8493504299649 |
| -19.2612052501417 |
| 20.5709226920974 |
| -3.71716444529074 |
| 9.34079932886775 |
| -17.6920487272172 |
| 0.282780700131674 |
| -15.6000550654091 |
| -11.5268418992641 |
| 2.45322208522521 |
| 4.71093551425211 |
| -0.747657464536695 |
| -10.8720240914714 |
| -5.15363348308538 |
| -33.1092733909457 |
| -1.88675374395731 |
| -1.69643563100753 |
| 12.1289352281836 |
| -10.8487629592757 |
| 4.42844002747247 |
| -9.4063050320154 |
| -5.85987916793011 |
| -0.942332891197308 |
| -1.90340972792835 |
| 10.3294439910607 |
| -25.5527503267159 |
| 23.487923176158 |
| 12.4579953817512 |
| 23.1729726508223 |
| -3.03145701760198 |
| -22.2223306581653 |
| -5.88322409353115 |
| 18.4007181993601 |
| 14.2110504118804 |
| 8.92875457423253 |
| -11.6405367523245 |
| 40.2495539579375 |
| 1.74539419383237 |
| 41.930368637512 |
| 40.4142332127378 |
| 115.312864561629 |
| -28.912923615866 |
| 0.519131229204766 |
| -19.0273754382756 |
| 0.562758768508315 |
| -15.6102413328833 |
| -12.4343120383412 |
| -11.877679591556 |
| -12.5002435978047 |
| 0.844933570602423 |
| -22.5899116468759 |
| -4.91822524169806 |
| -4.13095371917262 |
| -21.8240050297471 |
| -23.8100331572438 |
| -8.95917808502537 |
| -24.6994337769713 |
| 35.8657236279948 |
| 22.4770304336743 |
| 4.03655965147121 |
| -34.0667326801478 |
| 4.29015384806397 |
| 10.4161002183014 |
| -15.4465226108543 |
| -31.1435878547975 |
| 28.8663626153941 |
| -23.8712271992953 |
| -49.9583288911025 |
| 4.78041795064893 |
| 28.6551580829978 |
| -29.5952751669598 |
| 17.8411657728783 |
| -16.86984516204 |
| -0.586197663616276 |
| -3.65875658596648 |
| -47.7168811169054 |
| 5.75713700519138 |
| -12.6426986145159 |
| 14.2909648643469 |
| -10.3054160964647 |
| 13.7088308778022 |
| -31.8091420679853 |
| 40.732918570457 |
| -17.515245897683 |
| -2.61849116994544 |
| -7.46245913607824 |
| -1.88121643904192 |
| 24.422384860429 |
