Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[60])
48	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
49	56.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
50	54.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
51	59.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
52	63.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
53	73.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
54	86.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
55	81.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
56	89.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
57	85.3	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
58	92.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
59	96.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
60	93.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
61	97.6	92.6883	78.5129	106.8637	0.2485	0.4498	1	0.4498
62	94.2	90.7379	66.5901	114.8857	0.3894	0.2888	0.9985	0.4081
63	99.9	89.298	55.0114	123.5846	0.2722	0.3897	0.9568	0.4029
64	106.4	88.0068	45.2014	130.8121	0.1998	0.293	0.8701	0.3989
65	96	87.1266	37.5345	136.7187	0.3629	0.2231	0.7076	0.399
66	94.9	86.6028	32.0427	141.163	0.3828	0.3678	0.4986	0.4008
67	94.8	86.431	28.4757	144.3862	0.3886	0.3873	0.5689	0.4042
68	95.9	86.5385	26.4238	146.6531	0.3801	0.3938	0.4602	0.409
69	96.2	86.8492	25.4426	148.2558	0.3827	0.3863	0.5197	0.4147
70	103.1	87.2781	25.1282	149.4281	0.3089	0.3892	0.4358	0.421
71	106.9	87.7486	25.1658	150.3314	0.2743	0.3153	0.3884	0.4273
72	114.2	88.1969	25.3359	151.0579	0.2087	0.2799	0.4331	0.4331
73	118.2	88.5774	25.4988	151.656	0.1787	0.213	0.3896	0.438
74	123.9	88.863	25.5684	152.1577	0.139	0.1818	0.4344	0.4417
75	137.1	89.044	25.4915	152.5964	0.0692	0.1412	0.3689	0.4441
76	146.2	89.1246	25.2366	153.0127	0.04	0.0705	0.2981	0.4454
77	136.4	89.1199	24.7912	153.4486	0.0749	0.041	0.417	0.4457
78	133.2	89.0506	24.1627	153.9386	0.0912	0.0763	0.4299	0.4454
79	135.9	88.9402	23.378	154.5025	0.0802	0.0929	0.4305	0.4446
80	127.1	88.8111	22.4792	155.143	0.1289	0.0821	0.417	0.4437
81	128.5	88.6824	21.5159	155.8488	0.1226	0.1311	0.4132	0.4429
82	126.6	88.5686	20.5369	156.6003	0.1366	0.125	0.3377	0.4424
83	132.6	88.4792	19.5832	157.3753	0.1047	0.1391	0.3001	0.4421
84	130.9	88.4185	18.6833	158.1537	0.1162	0.1072	0.2343	0.4421

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
61	0.078	0.053	0	24.1246	0	0
62	0.1358	0.0382	0.0456	11.9864	18.0555	4.2492
63	0.1959	0.1187	0.07	112.402	49.5043	7.0359
64	0.2482	0.209	0.1047	338.3104	121.7059	11.032
65	0.2904	0.1018	0.1041	78.7368	113.112	10.6354
66	0.3214	0.0958	0.1028	68.8427	105.7338	10.2827
67	0.3421	0.0968	0.1019	70.0407	100.6348	10.0317
68	0.3544	0.1082	0.1027	87.6385	99.0103	9.9504
69	0.3607	0.1077	0.1032	87.4373	97.7244	9.8856
70	0.3633	0.1813	0.111	250.3315	112.9851	10.6294
71	0.3639	0.2183	0.1208	366.7776	136.0571	11.6644
72	0.3636	0.2948	0.1353	676.1625	181.0659	13.4561
73	0.3633	0.3344	0.1506	877.4984	234.6377	15.3179
74	0.3634	0.3943	0.168	1227.5895	305.5628	17.4804
75	0.3641	0.5397	0.1928	2309.3833	439.1508	20.9559
76	0.3657	0.6404	0.2208	3257.5967	615.3037	24.8053
77	0.3683	0.5305	0.239	2235.4101	710.6041	26.6572
78	0.3718	0.4958	0.2533	1949.1654	779.413	27.918
79	0.3761	0.528	0.2677	2205.2182	854.4554	29.2311
80	0.3811	0.4311	0.2759	1466.0401	885.0346	29.7495
81	0.3864	0.449	0.2841	1585.4434	918.3874	30.3049
82	0.3919	0.4294	0.2907	1446.3854	942.3873	30.6983
83	0.3973	0.4987	0.2998	1946.6435	986.0507	31.4014
84	0.4024	0.4805	0.3073	1804.6779	1020.1601	31.9399