| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast | ||||||||
| time | Y[t] | F[t] | 95% LB | 95% UB | p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-1]) | P(F[t]>Y[t-s]) | P(F[t]>Y[60]) |
| 48 | 872705 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 49 | 628151 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 50 | 953712 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 51 | 1160384 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 52 | 1400618 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 53 | 1661511 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 54 | 1495347 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 55 | 2918786 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 56 | 2775677 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 57 | 1407026 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 58 | 1370199 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 59 | 964526 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 60 | 850851 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 61 | 683118 | 667161.6187 | 484540.1038 | 849783.1336 | 0.432 | 0.0243 | 0.6623 | 0.0243 |
| 62 | 847224 | 914667.9334 | 728572.0069 | 1100763.8599 | 0.2387 | 0.9926 | 0.3405 | 0.7493 |
| 63 | 1073256 | 1141928.0414 | 955149.0288 | 1328707.054 | 0.2356 | 0.999 | 0.4232 | 0.9989 |
| 64 | 1514326 | 1525189.2204 | 1338484.9697 | 1711893.4711 | 0.4546 | 1 | 0.9045 | 1 |
| 65 | 1503734 | 1623597.5046 | 1436868.8319 | 1810326.1773 | 0.1042 | 0.8743 | 0.3453 | 1 |
| 66 | 1507712 | 1529043.3973 | 1342320.4816 | 1715766.313 | 0.4114 | 0.6048 | 0.6382 | 1 |
| 67 | 2865698 | 2982702.9648 | 2795978.3889 | 3169427.5407 | 0.1097 | 1 | 0.7489 | 1 |
| 68 | 2788128 | 2682547.9434 | 2495824.6185 | 2869271.2683 | 0.1339 | 0.0273 | 0.1641 | 1 |
| 69 | 1391596 | 1391359.4224 | 1204632.44 | 1578086.4048 | 0.499 | 0 | 0.4347 | 1 |
| 70 | 1366378 | 1364775.4436 | 1178063.416 | 1551487.4712 | 0.4933 | 0.3891 | 0.4773 | 1 |
| 71 | 946295 | 965906.537 | 779143.5083 | 1152669.5656 | 0.4185 | 0 | 0.5058 | 0.8864 |
| 72 | 859626 | 868068.0269 | 681658.4779 | 1054477.5759 | 0.4646 | 0.2054 | 0.5718 | 0.5718 |
| Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance | ||||||
| time | % S.E. | PE | MAPE | Sq.E | MSE | RMSE |
| 61 | 0.1397 | 0.0239 | 0 | 254606104.2385 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | 0.1038 | -0.0737 | 0.0488 | 4548684154.1074 | 2401645129.1729 | 49006.5825 |
| 63 | 0.0835 | -0.0601 | 0.0526 | 4715849263.8355 | 3173046507.3938 | 56329.8012 |
| 64 | 0.0625 | -0.0071 | 0.0412 | 118009557.8947 | 2409287270.019 | 49084.4911 |
| 65 | 0.0587 | -0.0738 | 0.0477 | 14367259729.2884 | 4800881761.8729 | 69288.3956 |
| 66 | 0.0623 | -0.014 | 0.0421 | 455028509.2863 | 4076572886.4418 | 63848.0453 |
| 67 | 0.0319 | -0.0392 | 0.0417 | 13690161779.3764 | 5449942728.2896 | 73823.7274 |
| 68 | 0.0355 | 0.0394 | 0.0414 | 11147148348.8224 | 6162093430.8562 | 78499.0027 |
| 69 | 0.0685 | 2e-04 | 0.0368 | 55968.9642 | 5477422601.7571 | 74009.6115 |
| 70 | 0.0698 | 0.0012 | 0.0333 | 2568186.9595 | 4929937160.2773 | 70213.5112 |
| 71 | 0.0987 | -0.0203 | 0.0321 | 384612381.6628 | 4516725816.7669 | 67206.5906 |
| 72 | 0.1096 | -0.0097 | 0.0302 | 71267818.1922 | 4146270983.5524 | 64391.5443 |
