| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.89022951938608 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 15 | 14 | 1 |
| 4 | 13 | 14.8902295193861 | -1.89022951938608 |
| 5 | 8 | 13.2074914028136 | -5.20749140281363 |
| 6 | 7 | 8.57162883407971 | -1.57162883407971 |
| 7 | 3 | 7.17251845246362 | -4.17251845246362 |
| 8 | 3 | 3.45801935589738 | -0.458019355897382 |
| 9 | 4 | 3.05027700482733 | 0.949722995172666 |
| 10 | 4 | 3.8957484503698 | 0.104251549630195 |
| 11 | 0 | 3.98855625729235 | -3.98855625729235 |
| 12 | -4 | 0.437825737318639 | -4.43782573731864 |
| 13 | -14 | -3.51285773593371 | -10.4871422640663 |
| 14 | -18 | -12.8488213534069 | -5.15117864659311 |
| 15 | -8 | -17.4345526442353 | 9.43455264423531 |
| 16 | -1 | -9.03563537813504 | 8.03563537813504 |
| 17 | 1 | -1.8820755574961 | 2.8820755574961 |
| 18 | 2 | 0.683633180888021 | 1.31636681911198 |
| 19 | 0 | 1.85550178160186 | -1.85550178160186 |
| 20 | 1 | 0.203679322346421 | 0.796320677653579 |
| 21 | 0 | 0.912587496491164 | -0.912587496491164 |
| 22 | -1 | 0.100175168092089 | -1.10017516809209 |
| 23 | -3 | -0.879233243039031 | -2.12076675696097 |
| 24 | -3 | -2.76720241381837 | -0.23279758618163 |
| 25 | -3 | -2.97444569707908 | -0.0255543029209182 |
| 26 | -4 | -2.99719489188662 | -1.00280510811338 |
| 27 | -8 | -3.8899216013203 | -4.1100783986797 |
| 28 | -9 | -7.54883471881604 | -1.45116528118396 |
| 29 | -13 | -8.8407048896342 | -4.1592951103658 |
| 30 | -18 | -12.54343217672 | -5.45656782327998 |
| 31 | -11 | -17.4010299275361 | 6.4010299275361 |
| 32 | -9 | -11.7026441315697 | 2.70264413156973 |
| 33 | -10 | -9.2966705452508 | -0.7033294547492 |
| 34 | -13 | -9.92279518772225 | -3.07720481227775 |
| 35 | -11 | -12.6622137488088 | 1.6622137488088 |
| 36 | -5 | -11.1824620020898 | 6.18246200208981 |
| 37 | -15 | -5.6786518253467 | -9.3213481746533 |
| 38 | -6 | -13.9767911308986 | 7.97679113089862 |
| 39 | -6 | -6.8756161961956 | 0.875616196195597 |
| 40 | -3 | -6.09611681068972 | 3.09611681068972 |
| 41 | -1 | -3.33986223034625 | 2.33986223034625 |
| 42 | -3 | -1.25684780159547 | -1.74315219840453 |
| 43 | -4 | -2.80865334539792 | -1.19134665460208 |
| 44 | -6 | -3.86922530514654 | -2.13077469485346 |
| 45 | 0 | -5.76610383766596 | 5.76610383766596 |
| 46 | -4 | -0.632947989530361 | -3.36705201046964 |
| 47 | -2 | -3.63039708255868 | 1.63039708255868 |
| 48 | -2 | -2.178969471344 | 0.178969471344 |
| 49 | -6 | -2.01964556488465 | -3.98035443511535 |
| 50 | -7 | -5.56307458064364 | -1.43692541935636 |
| 51 | -6 | -6.84226800611089 | 0.842268006110894 |
| 52 | -6 | -6.09245616383652 | 0.0924561638365207 |
| 53 | -3 | -6.01014895754005 | 3.01014895754005 |
| 54 | -2 | -3.33042549778866 | 1.33042549778866 |
| 55 | -5 | -2.14604144631328 | -2.85395855368672 |
| 56 | -11 | -4.6867195979096 | -6.3132804020904 |
| 57 | -11 | -10.3069881760121 | -0.693011823987906 |
| 58 | -11 | -10.9239277590097 | -0.0760722409902819 |
| 59 | -10 | -10.9916495135451 | 0.991649513545118 |
| 60 | -14 | -10.1088538437024 | -3.89114615629759 |
| 61 | -8 | -13.5728670162842 | 5.5728670162842 |
| 62 | -9 | -8.61173629077498 | -0.38826370922502 |
| 63 | -5 | -8.95738010603343 | 3.95738010603343 |
| 64 | -1 | -5.43440351621126 | 4.43440351621126 |
| 65 | -2 | -1.48676660521057 | -0.513233394789433 |
| 66 | -5 | -1.94366212358685 | -3.05633787641315 |
| 67 | -4 | -4.6645043223876 | 0.6645043223876 |
| 68 | -6 | -4.07294295883851 | -1.92705704116149 |
| 69 | -2 | -5.78846602242126 | 3.78846602242126 |
| 70 | -2 | -2.41586173607069 | 0.415861736070688 |
| 71 | -2 | -2.04564934263742 | 0.0456493426374185 |
| 72 | -2 | -2.00501095028102 | 0.00501095028101872 |
| 73 | 2 | -2.00055005442068 | 4.00055005442068 |
| 74 | 1 | 1.5608576978062 | -0.560857697806198 |
| 75 | -8 | 1.0615656190442 | -9.0615656190442 |
| 76 | -1 | -7.00530758688294 | 6.00530758688294 |
| 77 | 1 | -1.65920550004656 | 2.65920550004656 |
| 78 | -1 | 0.708097734208709 | -1.70809773420871 |
| 79 | 2 | -0.812501290780362 | 2.81250129078036 |
| 80 | 2 | 1.69127038158377 | 0.308729618416231 |
| 81 | 1 | 1.9661106014067 | -0.966110601406698 |
| 82 | -1 | 1.10605042504262 | -2.10605042504262 |
| 83 | -2 | -0.768817832645921 | -1.23118216735408 |
| 84 | -2 | -1.86485254176625 | -0.135147458233745 |
| 85 | -1 | -1.98516479855593 | 0.985164798555932 |
| 86 | -8 | -1.1081420134214 | -6.8918579865786 |
| 87 | -4 | -7.24347743649038 | 3.24347743649038 |
| 88 | -6 | -4.35603807706396 | -1.64396192293604 |
| 89 | -3 | -5.81954150960833 | 2.81954150960833 |
| 90 | -3 | -3.3095024266206 | 0.309502426620604 |
| 91 | -7 | -3.03397423012132 | -3.96602576987868 |
| 92 | -9 | -6.56464744511322 | -2.43535255488678 |
| 93 | -11 | -8.73267017958574 | -2.26732982041426 |
| 94 | -13 | -10.7511141159029 | -2.24888588409715 |
| 95 | -11 | -12.7531387156568 | 1.7531387156568 |
| 96 | -9 | -11.1924428794005 | 2.19244287940052 |
| 97 | -17 | -9.24066550859036 | -7.75933449140964 |
| 98 | -22 | -16.1482541236338 | -5.8517458763662 |
| 99 | -25 | -21.3576510427208 | -3.64234895727924 |
| 100 | -20 | -24.6001776043958 | 4.60017760439585 |
| 101 | -24 | -20.5049637065439 | -3.49503629345608 |
| 102 | -24 | -23.6163481863042 | -0.383651813695767 |
| 103 | -22 | -23.9578863560222 | 1.95788635602221 |
| 104 | -19 | -22.214918126288 | 3.21491812628799 |
| 105 | -18 | -19.352903107857 | 1.35290310785704 |
| 106 | -17 | -18.1485088243735 | 1.14850882437353 |
| 107 | -11 | -17.1260723656408 | 6.12607236564081 |
| 108 | -11 | -11.672461907852 | 0.672461907852046 |
| 109 | -12 | -11.0738164668195 | -0.926183533180527 |
| 110 | -10 | -11.8983323884261 | 1.89833238842608 |
| 111 | -15 | -10.2083808586425 | -4.7916191413575 |
| 112 | -15 | -14.4740216639343 | -0.525978336065672 |
| 113 | -15 | -14.9422631052576 | -0.0577368947424386 |
| 114 | -13 | -14.993662193315 | 1.99366219331497 |
| 115 | -8 | -13.218845257142 | 5.21884525714199 |
| 116 | -13 | -8.57287515212615 | -4.42712484787385 |
| 117 | -9 | -12.5140323777111 | 3.51403237771106 |
| 118 | -7 | -9.38573702299422 | 2.38573702299422 |
| 119 | -4 | -7.2618834996325 | 3.2618834996325 |
| 120 | -4 | -4.35805851946128 | 0.358058519461276 |
| 121 | -2 | -4.03930425576917 | 2.03930425576917 |
| 122 | 0 | -2.22385540827379 | 2.22385540827379 |
| 123 | -2 | -0.24411367698208 | -1.75588632301792 |
| 124 | -3 | -1.80725551441891 | -1.19274448558109 |
| 125 | 1 | -2.86907186456816 | 3.86907186456816 |
| 126 | -2 | 0.575290121896557 | -2.57529012189656 |
| 127 | -1 | -1.71730916559913 | 0.717309165599134 |
| 128 | 1 | -1.07873937185659 | 2.07873937185659 |
| 129 | -3 | 0.771815780080224 | -3.77181578008022 |
| 130 | -4 | -2.58596596903343 | -1.41403403096657 |
| 131 | -9 | -3.84478080481636 | -5.15521919518364 |
| 132 | -9 | -8.43410911127459 | -0.565890888725415 |
| 133 | -7 | -8.93788188516957 | 1.93788188516957 |
| 134 | -14 | -7.21272222590807 | -6.78727777409193 |
| 135 | -12 | -13.2549572566778 | 1.25495725667775 |
| 136 | -16 | -12.1377572612154 | -3.86224273878456 |
| 137 | -20 | -15.576039758316 | -4.423960241684 |
| 138 | -12 | -19.5143797580535 | 7.51437975805347 |
| 139 | -12 | -12.824857077557 | 0.824857077557043 |
| 140 | -10 | -12.0905449578412 | 2.09054495784123 |
| 141 | -10 | -10.2294801247672 | 0.229480124767239 |
| 142 | -13 | -10.025190143587 | -2.97480985641296 |
| 143 | -16 | -12.6734536923265 | -3.32654630767348 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 144 | -15.6348434130222 | -22.6476633636145 | -8.62202346242993 |
| 145 | -15.6348434130222 | -25.0239293145401 | -6.24575751150433 |
| 146 | -15.6348434130222 | -26.9100473789263 | -4.35963944711816 |
| 147 | -15.6348434130222 | -28.523036260718 | -2.74665056532649 |
| 148 | -15.6348434130222 | -29.9554860412723 | -1.31420078477218 |
| 149 | -15.6348434130222 | -31.2571382410143 | -0.0125485850301139 |
| 150 | -15.6348434130222 | -32.4583800833946 | 1.1886932573502 |
| 151 | -15.6348434130222 | -33.5793878905514 | 2.30970106450694 |
| 152 | -15.6348434130222 | -34.6343688521662 | 3.36468202612176 |
| 153 | -15.6348434130222 | -35.6337748174582 | 4.36408799141376 |
| 154 | -15.6348434130222 | -36.5855605302474 | 5.31587370420297 |
| 155 | -15.6348434130222 | -37.4959467276459 | 6.22625990160143 |
