| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.769011136609184 |
| beta | 0.0296873720366851 |
| gamma | 0.390549194716412 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 5 | 97415 | 114939.06875 | -17524.06875 |
| 6 | 119190 | 119870.95413994 | -680.954139939699 |
| 7 | 97903 | 88839.3361118576 | 9063.66388814236 |
| 8 | 96953 | 92815.485588244 | 4137.51441175595 |
| 9 | 87888 | 79971.1900708081 | 7916.80992919189 |
| 10 | 84637 | 106453.430060023 | -21816.4300600234 |
| 11 | 90549 | 60031.5367969283 | 30517.4632030717 |
| 12 | 95680 | 80535.3396825554 | 15144.6603174446 |
| 13 | 99371 | 77221.737103133 | 22149.262896867 |
| 14 | 79984 | 113016.642740384 | -33032.642740384 |
| 15 | 86752 | 63484.5250507005 | 23267.4749492995 |
| 16 | 85733 | 77654.6663004551 | 8078.33369954488 |
| 17 | 84906 | 70006.0382760694 | 14899.9617239306 |
| 18 | 78356 | 95549.7067545321 | -17193.7067545321 |
| 19 | 108895 | 63940.138698166 | 44954.861301834 |
| 20 | 101768 | 94576.2485195354 | 7191.75148046463 |
| 21 | 73285 | 87999.3620810333 | -14714.3620810333 |
| 22 | 65724 | 88336.0795480143 | -22612.0795480143 |
| 23 | 67457 | 58504.6443909878 | 8952.35560901221 |
| 24 | 67203 | 57564.1302963088 | 9638.86970369119 |
| 25 | 69273 | 50465.1759505782 | 18807.8240494218 |
| 26 | 80807 | 76205.9402568338 | 4601.05974316619 |
| 27 | 75129 | 71108.0784626216 | 4020.92153737835 |
| 28 | 74991 | 67283.4436850627 | 7707.55631493729 |
| 29 | 68157 | 60328.6254080235 | 7828.37459197655 |
| 30 | 73858 | 76895.966071142 | -3037.96607114197 |
| 31 | 71349 | 66248.3974761755 | 5100.60252382453 |
| 32 | 85634 | 63988.4038747028 | 21645.5961252972 |
| 33 | 91624 | 68482.9709646186 | 23141.0290353814 |
| 34 | 116014 | 96915.1983914386 | 19098.8016085614 |
| 35 | 120033 | 105600.196918845 | 14432.8030811549 |
| 36 | 108651 | 113797.333851162 | -5146.33385116249 |
| 37 | 105378 | 98999.8564703635 | 6378.14352963648 |
| 38 | 138939 | 114970.224719831 | 23968.7752801688 |
| 39 | 132974 | 127884.182842384 | 5089.81715761573 |
| 40 | 135277 | 127821.703822619 | 7455.29617738098 |
| 41 | 152741 | 124733.894007195 | 28007.1059928052 |
| 42 | 158417 | 160397.079514203 | -1980.07951420313 |
| 43 | 157460 | 152533.559887733 | 4926.44011226681 |
| 44 | 193997 | 153435.706881471 | 40561.293118529 |
| 45 | 154089 | 179293.484067527 | -25204.4840675273 |
| 46 | 147570 | 171749.0047051 | -24179.0047051002 |
| 47 | 162924 | 147348.379102375 | 15575.620897625 |
| 48 | 153629 | 159808.754568503 | -6179.75456850257 |
| 49 | 155907 | 142876.335202917 | 13030.6647970829 |
| 50 | 197675 | 164787.61336812 | 32887.3866318795 |
| 51 | 250708 | 189120.855273088 | 61587.1447269115 |
| 52 | 266652 | 237315.249546051 | 29336.7504539492 |
| 53 | 209842 | 252552.528967838 | -42710.5289678381 |
| 54 | 165826 | 235241.056844176 | -69415.056844176 |
| 55 | 137152 | 183007.624864595 | -45855.6248645947 |
| 56 | 150581 | 142731.00091142 | 7849.99908858034 |
| 57 | 145973 | 131517.679491034 | 14455.3205089661 |
| 58 | 126532 | 153635.907885132 | -27103.9078851318 |
| 59 | 115437 | 134909.144639492 | -19472.1446394925 |
| 60 | 119526 | 119212.531302044 | 313.468697956298 |
| 61 | 110856 | 102073.259467025 | 8782.7405329747 |
| 62 | 97243 | 115224.386375359 | -17981.3863753588 |
| 63 | 103876 | 103554.028938205 | 321.971061795033 |
| 64 | 116370 | 104668.723638818 | 11701.2763611818 |
| 65 | 109616 | 97115.3224546366 | 12500.6775453634 |
| 66 | 98365 | 110860.490772412 | -12495.4907724119 |
| 67 | 90440 | 105334.648234931 | -14894.6482349315 |
| 68 | 88899 | 95701.3629702353 | -6802.36297023534 |
| 69 | 92358 | 73495.3504531689 | 18862.6495468311 |
| 70 | 88394 | 89527.9995917096 | -1133.99959170959 |
| 71 | 98219 | 92432.238904365 | 5786.76109563497 |
| 72 | 113546 | 99814.7706839566 | 13731.2293160434 |
| 73 | 107168 | 96564.9624348183 | 10603.0375651817 |
| 74 | 77540 | 105103.701504071 | -27563.7015040711 |
| 75 | 74944 | 88365.9284913644 | -13421.9284913644 |
| 76 | 75641 | 81313.3052310869 | -5672.30523108687 |
| 77 | 75910 | 62036.6303628086 | 13873.3696371914 |
| 78 | 87384 | 68898.704710646 | 18485.295289354 |
| 79 | 84615 | 89151.7138653672 | -4536.7138653672 |
| 80 | 80420 | 90136.7072410156 | -9716.70724101564 |
| 81 | 80784 | 69926.4479281166 | 10857.5520718834 |
| 82 | 79933 | 75229.8687823263 | 4703.13121767374 |
| 83 | 82118 | 82837.2116333725 | -719.211633372543 |
| 84 | 91420 | 86407.6044716462 | 5012.39552835377 |
| 85 | 112426 | 79833.5070828222 | 32592.4929171778 |
| 86 | 114528 | 102245.602867803 | 12282.397132197 |
| 87 | 131025 | 116314.825611487 | 14710.1743885127 |
| 88 | 116460 | 133742.405650994 | -17282.4056509945 |
| 89 | 111258 | 113477.194108475 | -2219.19410847528 |
| 90 | 155318 | 107457.508358216 | 47860.4916417845 |
| 91 | 155078 | 150088.961215324 | 4989.03878467574 |
| 92 | 134794 | 157916.079201261 | -23122.079201261 |
| 93 | 139985 | 135146.995156828 | 4838.0048431718 |
| 94 | 198778 | 139861.314961726 | 58916.685038274 |
| 95 | 172436 | 188169.100697508 | -15733.1006975077 |
| 96 | 169585 | 178093.141819743 | -8508.141819743 |
| 97 | 203702 | 169986.776691987 | 33715.2233080129 |
| 98 | 282392 | 203347.926226509 | 79044.0737734908 |
| 99 | 220658 | 262420.413244865 | -41762.4132448646 |
| 100 | 194472 | 234406.017811247 | -39934.0178112471 |
| 101 | 269246 | 206651.042748184 | 62594.9572518165 |
| 102 | 215340 | 267678.74363625 | -52338.7436362501 |
| 103 | 218319 | 213187.14950679 | 5131.85049320967 |
| 104 | 195724 | 220839.527128261 | -25115.5271282606 |
| 105 | 174614 | 213507.455886746 | -38893.4558867462 |
| 106 | 172085 | 183581.929143221 | -11496.9291432214 |
| 107 | 152347 | 164076.077831701 | -11729.0778317013 |
| 108 | 189615 | 154041.953985265 | 35573.0460147347 |
| 109 | 173804 | 191531.077191269 | -17727.0771912692 |
| 110 | 145683 | 180231.415115653 | -34548.4151156525 |
| 111 | 133550 | 142328.682245934 | -8778.68224593403 |
| 112 | 121156 | 138248.95688107 | -17092.9568810701 |
| 113 | 112040 | 128644.906460937 | -16604.9064609374 |
| 114 | 120767 | 114932.237312518 | 5834.76268748246 |
| 115 | 127019 | 109572.841345705 | 17446.1586542951 |
| 116 | 136295 | 124672.44111761 | 11622.5588823898 |
| 117 | 113425 | 137612.725338574 | -24187.7253385741 |
| 118 | 107815 | 120337.762830413 | -12522.7628304132 |
| 119 | 100298 | 101734.257517769 | -1436.25751776878 |
| 120 | 97048 | 101182.16233271 | -4134.16233271026 |
| 121 | 98750 | 97809.546939741 | 940.453060258966 |
| 122 | 98235 | 100519.163623299 | -2284.16362329907 |
| 123 | 101254 | 90631.5476042003 | 10622.4523957997 |
| 124 | 139589 | 99226.8001952893 | 40362.1998047107 |
| 125 | 134921 | 131663.475351802 | 3257.52464819798 |
| 126 | 80355 | 137050.242381583 | -56695.2423815834 |
| 127 | 80396 | 86428.2358391541 | -6032.23583915412 |
| 128 | 82183 | 84462.5166132995 | -2279.51661329948 |
| 129 | 79709 | 79350.1954648205 | 358.804535179457 |
| 130 | 90781 | 75623.4115815425 | 15157.5884184575 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 131 | 84991.9507021086 | 38006.3693029821 | 131977.532101235 |
| 132 | 88305.8270772143 | 28373.6550105293 | 148237.999143899 |
| 133 | 85538.7271809022 | 14425.7577982269 | 156651.696563578 |
| 134 | 83217.1006477609 | 1942.7896454694 | 164491.411650052 |
