| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.945564968612526 |
| beta | 0.13497582304194 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 118159 | 101321 | 16838 |
| 4 | 109763 | 80841.4301070252 | 28921.5698929748 |
| 5 | 97415 | 75478.8745772471 | 21936.1254227529 |
| 6 | 119190 | 66310.8002728317 | 52879.1997271683 |
| 7 | 97903 | 93150.301228651 | 4752.69877134904 |
| 8 | 96953 | 75089.6482055672 | 21863.3517944328 |
| 9 | 87888 | 75998.6140953244 | 11889.3859046756 |
| 10 | 84637 | 68993.9706590318 | 15643.0293409682 |
| 11 | 90549 | 67535.1359212241 | 23013.8640787759 |
| 12 | 95680 | 75983.1271784446 | 19696.8728215554 |
| 13 | 99371 | 83808.5682594297 | 15562.4317405703 |
| 14 | 79984 | 89710.8351063283 | -9726.83510632828 |
| 15 | 86752 | 70459.0366431382 | 16292.9633568618 |
| 16 | 85733 | 77890.0931025372 | 7842.90689746282 |
| 17 | 84906 | 78332.0499272757 | 6573.95007272433 |
| 18 | 78356 | 78413.1484262595 | -57.1484262594895 |
| 19 | 108895 | 72216.8187184146 | 36678.1812815854 |
| 20 | 101768 | 105437.307846928 | -3669.30784692836 |
| 21 | 73285 | 100038.316758188 | -26753.3167581881 |
| 22 | 65724 | 69397.4122310085 | -3673.41223100848 |
| 23 | 67457 | 60111.2251417812 | 7345.77485821882 |
| 24 | 67203 | 62181.9249111916 | 5021.07508880836 |
| 25 | 69273 | 62695.3018455691 | 6577.69815443088 |
| 26 | 80807 | 65520.0681762416 | 15286.9318237584 |
| 27 | 75129 | 78531.0275686722 | -3402.02756867219 |
| 28 | 74991 | 73436.1662908473 | 1554.83370915274 |
| 29 | 68157 | 73226.7803455296 | -5069.78034552955 |
| 30 | 73858 | 66106.3434155949 | 7751.65658440511 |
| 31 | 71349 | 72098.7396976701 | -749.739697670127 |
| 32 | 85634 | 69956.8253856861 | 15677.1746143139 |
| 33 | 91624 | 85348.4786569202 | 6275.52134307985 |
| 34 | 116014 | 92651.1927580073 | 23362.8072419927 |
| 35 | 120033 | 119092.803752357 | 940.196247642627 |
| 36 | 108651 | 124452.375037684 | -15801.3750376839 |
| 37 | 105378 | 111964.998626129 | -6586.99862612916 |
| 38 | 138939 | 107349.725596428 | 31589.2744035719 |
| 39 | 132974 | 142864.28783713 | -9890.28783713045 |
| 40 | 135277 | 137894.947399752 | -2617.94739975204 |
| 41 | 152741 | 139467.952856008 | 13273.0471439919 |
| 42 | 158417 | 157760.943970466 | 656.056029533996 |
| 43 | 157460 | 164207.481665637 | -6747.48166563737 |
| 44 | 193997 | 162792.323116785 | 31204.6768832146 |
| 45 | 154089 | 201245.999466321 | -47156.9994663209 |
| 46 | 147570 | 159585.046921474 | -12015.0469214739 |
| 47 | 162924 | 149619.63229848 | 13304.3677015204 |
| 48 | 153629 | 165293.384462943 | -11664.384462943 |
| 49 | 155907 | 155868.852429509 | 38.1475704906334 |
| 50 | 197675 | 157514.693444719 | 40160.3065552811 |
| 51 | 250708 | 202224.238526916 | 48483.7614730837 |
| 52 | 266652 | 260992.056378932 | 5659.94362106762 |
| 53 | 209842 | 279989.541852195 | -70147.5418521949 |
| 54 | 165826 | 218353.305479884 | -52527.3054798841 |
| 55 | 137152 | 166674.170886324 | -29522.1708863238 |
| 56 | 150581 | 132980.017936279 | 17600.9820637209 |
| 57 | 145973 | 146090.252979452 | -117.252979452431 |
| 58 | 126532 | 142431.780848837 | -15899.7808488372 |
| 59 | 115437 | 121820.639501633 | -6383.63950163346 |
| 60 | 119526 | 109392.894289882 | 10133.1057101177 |
| 61 | 110856 | 113876.076914771 | -3020.07691477073 |
| 62 | 97243 | 105536.62320946 | -8293.62320945995 |
| 63 | 103876 | 91152.1869251832 | 12723.8130748168 |
| 64 | 116370 | 98265.0221516894 | 18104.9778483106 |
| 65 | 109616 | 112776.807812001 | -3160.80781200125 |
| 66 | 98365 | 106777.002646924 | -8412.0026469236 |
| 67 | 90440 | 94738.2410808671 | -4298.2410808671 |
| 68 | 88899 | 86040.7306664744 | 2858.26933352558 |
| 69 | 92358 | 84474.9621674834 | 7883.03783251661 |
| 70 | 88394 | 88666.538320099 | -272.538320099047 |
| 71 | 98219 | 85111.7037315245 | 13107.2962684755 |
| 72 | 113546 | 95881.235396283 | 17664.764603717 |
| 73 | 107168 | 113214.67528165 | -6046.67528165005 |
| 74 | 77540 | 107355.680704806 | -29815.680704806 |
| 75 | 74944 | 75216.2193432769 | -272.219343276913 |
| 76 | 75641 | 70977.277174847 | 4663.72282515303 |
| 77 | 75910 | 72000.8125362682 | 3909.18746373177 |
| 78 | 87384 | 72809.8090722616 | 14574.1909277384 |
| 79 | 84615 | 85563.340087318 | -948.340087318036 |
| 80 | 80420 | 83518.2744129676 | -3098.27441296761 |
| 81 | 80784 | 79044.8783187723 | 1739.12168122771 |
| 82 | 79933 | 79367.5158453107 | 565.484154689271 |
| 83 | 82118 | 78652.5746843796 | 3465.42531562036 |
| 84 | 91420 | 81122.0030188465 | 10297.9969811535 |
| 85 | 112426 | 91366.3887454101 | 21059.6112545899 |
| 86 | 114528 | 114474.38463173 | 53.615368269966 |
| 87 | 131025 | 117726.689521324 | 13298.3104786757 |
| 88 | 116460 | 135199.956347731 | -18739.9563477305 |
| 89 | 111258 | 119987.20957818 | -8729.20957818034 |
| 90 | 155318 | 113126.179125612 | 42191.820874388 |
| 91 | 155078 | 159799.166242704 | -4721.16624270377 |
| 92 | 134794 | 161510.321228576 | -26716.3212285763 |
| 93 | 139985 | 139013.866584409 | 971.133415591117 |
| 94 | 198778 | 142821.643335426 | 55956.3566645742 |
| 95 | 172436 | 205763.141805692 | -33327.1418056917 |
| 96 | 169585 | 180027.801732862 | -10442.8017328616 |
| 97 | 203702 | 174598.293782878 | 29103.7062171219 |
| 98 | 282392 | 210277.038127406 | 72114.9618725936 |
| 99 | 220658 | 295829.636988005 | -75171.6369880053 |
| 100 | 194472 | 232519.151123223 | -38047.1511232232 |
| 101 | 269246 | 199456.381171681 | 69789.6188283189 |
| 102 | 215340 | 277267.421291702 | -61927.4212917024 |
| 103 | 218319 | 222627.74419759 | -4308.74419758952 |
| 104 | 195724 | 221920.351530957 | -26196.3515309569 |
| 105 | 174614 | 197173.405432642 | -22559.4054326417 |
| 106 | 172085 | 172986.207114462 | -901.207114461839 |
| 107 | 152347 | 169163.222778226 | -16816.222778226 |
| 108 | 189615 | 148145.329382074 | 41469.6706179258 |
| 109 | 173804 | 187533.243064742 | -13729.2430647423 |
| 110 | 145683 | 172974.75620243 | -27291.7562024298 |
| 111 | 133550 | 142108.828583876 | -8558.82858387585 |
| 112 | 121156 | 127863.751398401 | -6707.75139840128 |
| 113 | 112040 | 114512.888308874 | -2472.88830887376 |
| 114 | 120767 | 104850.752601006 | 15916.247398994 |
| 115 | 127019 | 114608.10476832 | 12410.8952316802 |
| 116 | 136295 | 122634.901547155 | 13660.0984528453 |
| 117 | 113425 | 133586.317774916 | -20161.3177749162 |
| 118 | 107815 | 109984.230700184 | -2169.23070018354 |
| 119 | 100298 | 103117.975410621 | -2819.97541062113 |
| 120 | 97048 | 95276.4897418061 | 1771.51025819388 |
| 121 | 98750 | 92002.6471126451 | 6747.35288735492 |
| 122 | 98235 | 94294.9408828471 | 3940.05911715291 |
| 123 | 101254 | 94435.6194872898 | 6818.38051271015 |
| 124 | 139589 | 98168.1570345605 | 41420.8429654395 |
| 125 | 134921 | 139906.047228352 | -4985.0472283519 |
| 126 | 80355 | 137127.919666693 | -56772.9196666928 |
| 127 | 80396 | 78135.1566671671 | 2260.84333283288 |
| 128 | 82183 | 75251.1997649202 | 6931.80023507976 |
| 129 | 79709 | 77668.6307209328 | 2040.36927906722 |
| 130 | 90781 | 75721.3050052045 | 15059.6949947955 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 131 | 88006.64252666 | 41628.7064264755 | 134384.578626845 |
| 132 | 86052.0600230475 | 18021.0809840664 | 154083.039062029 |
| 133 | 84097.477519435 | -3821.64695383461 | 172016.601992705 |
| 134 | 82142.8950158225 | -25214.7337955928 | 189500.523827238 |
