| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 178421 | 178421 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 139871 | 147547.204063282 | -7524.39207126218 | -7524.39207114085 | -0.364693280412279 |
| 3 | 118159 | 127645.857022788 | -8285.70424887263 | -8285.70424887263 | -0.625644233837677 |
| 4 | 109763 | 118214.399703031 | -8337.75976279794 | -8337.75976279794 | -0.0581974094622058 |
| 5 | 97415 | 83857.724866391 | -5394.50823216663 | 16183.5246958545 | -1.49554980236121 |
| 6 | 119190 | 118300.33721398 | -1712.08913447358 | -1712.08913357832 | 1.65137689079881 |
| 7 | 97903 | 101499.096926316 | -2107.48854365875 | -2107.48854365875 | -0.757764228355765 |
| 8 | 96953 | 99095.8882499873 | -2113.45918873038 | -2113.45918873038 | -0.01488138443672 |
| 9 | 87888 | 84670.899309254 | -1483.98563308541 | 4451.95689779937 | -0.658144598744649 |
| 10 | 84637 | 85770.0140458987 | -1335.31305107826 | -1335.3130496003 | 0.116143466100026 |
| 11 | 90549 | 91111.4114181802 | -1223.81853245492 | -1223.81853245492 | 0.334629165292249 |
| 12 | 95680 | 96193.7829105502 | -1141.94169114441 | -1141.94169114441 | 0.316482005406113 |
| 13 | 99371 | 95796.7824501105 | -1166.54574977949 | 3499.63724816632 | 0.0389118123901675 |
| 14 | 79984 | 82658.7556801133 | -1666.80348193293 | -1666.80348086886 | -0.555677057905876 |
| 15 | 86752 | 87673.7407414942 | -1584.92452455206 | -1584.92452455206 | 0.334566030202903 |
| 16 | 85733 | 87196.897286543 | -1574.3220811745 | -1574.3220811745 | 0.0555380858780272 |
| 17 | 84906 | 80986.0970552913 | -1461.22589152628 | 4383.6776737456 | -0.239440282305154 |
| 18 | 78356 | 79785.8210806427 | -1452.66646056527 | -1452.66645972953 | 0.0123201721156311 |
| 19 | 108895 | 107200.000773791 | -1173.29443428454 | -1173.29443428454 | 1.44460056066886 |
| 20 | 101768 | 103240.16603116 | -1194.40406322312 | -1194.40406322311 | -0.13955824398851 |
| 21 | 73285 | 74114.5401373215 | -654.300817765748 | 1962.90245334737 | -1.43268709126833 |
| 22 | 65724 | 67118.4359175817 | -825.501791839036 | -825.501791951515 | -0.302600469988058 |
| 23 | 67457 | 68089.4940783136 | -811.135007247405 | -811.135007247406 | 0.0898736483471024 |
| 24 | 67203 | 67943.6377126451 | -806.963842819937 | -806.963842819937 | 0.0333025623438042 |
| 25 | 69273 | 66888.7930892178 | -802.993513934874 | 2408.98054198552 | -0.0126575138187859 |
| 26 | 80807 | 80019.3204370159 | -483.411753111879 | -483.411753152703 | 0.669661661718537 |
| 27 | 75129 | 75989.4020694428 | -507.575211596773 | -507.575211596774 | -0.177369935320865 |
| 28 | 74991 | 75496.9829615274 | -507.494156901417 | -507.494156901417 | 0.000758418469900839 |
| 29 | 68157 | 67666.5290732471 | -407.388115667376 | 1222.16434690316 | -0.37273449427697 |
| 30 | 73858 | 73558.1289231506 | -281.798788855623 | -281.798788692301 | 0.304329140817482 |
| 31 | 71349 | 71787.7789587392 | -290.633265772498 | -290.6332657725 | -0.0744320748036103 |
| 32 | 85634 | 84561.0247403993 | -229.723026212069 | -229.723026212069 | 0.653551485029934 |
| 33 | 91624 | 90145.9608878945 | -299.051842776565 | 897.155528280231 | 0.295253553785463 |
| 34 | 116014 | 113672.33837492 | 121.063460612795 | 121.063460908651 | 1.15569396244332 |
| 35 | 120033 | 119331.491190498 | 150.178300617362 | 150.17830061736 | 0.276880427720654 |
| 36 | 108651 | 109533.962571714 | 109.066803024924 | 109.066803024924 | -0.497556876114126 |
| 37 | 105378 | 106163.158521307 | 145.856008160466 | -437.568024711436 | -0.176370076025908 |
| 38 | 138939 | 135582.170751268 | 608.542153655358 | 608.542154191034 | 1.42439091861129 |
| 39 | 132974 | 132726.730306513 | 592.197777428709 | 592.197777428708 | -0.173163760100324 |
| 40 | 135277 | 134556.759678454 | 596.79151960714 | 596.791519607139 | 0.0619029450766543 |
| 41 | 152741 | 152326.948395841 | 433.713979208684 | -1301.1419382208 | 0.869103689089694 |
| 42 | 158417 | 157470.993611203 | 501.173990717676 | 501.173991361982 | 0.229776230595144 |
| 43 | 157460 | 157054.181061808 | 497.245249610398 | 497.245249610398 | -0.0458855629394918 |
| 44 | 193997 | 190139.829123311 | 606.988314068446 | 606.988314068447 | 1.62950523106522 |
| 45 | 154089 | 159800.590627785 | 873.704318941366 | -2621.11295720789 | -1.56420903612346 |
| 46 | 147570 | 148058.639912052 | 708.535254569774 | 708.535254819988 | -0.616685712930425 |
| 47 | 162924 | 160953.832313037 | 756.254742013432 | 756.254742013429 | 0.609101722865591 |
| 48 | 153629 | 153696.685074338 | 731.555808896229 | 731.555808896229 | -0.400647283281497 |
| 49 | 155907 | 157697.78675244 | 705.759679279998 | -2117.27903775884 | 0.16509528576582 |
| 50 | 197675 | 193230.895601529 | 1125.68778340628 | 1125.68778369586 | 1.70540903701748 |
| 51 | 250708 | 244414.714689533 | 1306.33583912772 | 1306.33583912771 | 2.50178936794149 |
| 52 | 266652 | 263519.820469021 | 1356.90991327519 | 1356.90991327519 | 0.889805832994142 |
| 53 | 209842 | 219441.155895985 | 1687.43624240953 | -5062.3087257323 | -2.29229951047299 |
| 54 | 165826 | 169637.10273368 | 1112.06515430693 | 1112.06515226005 | -2.52513318946277 |
| 55 | 137152 | 139280.595329301 | 1006.75745883005 | 1006.75745883004 | -1.57263612073526 |
| 56 | 150581 | 148711.75735299 | 1028.96047751349 | 1028.96047751349 | 0.421124249038794 |
| 57 | 145973 | 149132.878207528 | 1033.06242925003 | -3099.18728667778 | -0.0306440228184998 |
| 58 | 126532 | 127869.235020728 | 800.923237450732 | 800.923236139085 | -1.09481476982339 |
| 59 | 115437 | 115943.877786681 | 761.221468255756 | 761.221468255752 | -0.635961977789812 |
| 60 | 119526 | 118573.791443159 | 765.813780280644 | 765.813780280647 | 0.0934069516629513 |
| 61 | 110856 | 113809.934208829 | 800.613090746419 | -2401.839271353 | -0.278599365826088 |
| 62 | 97243 | 98182.0033564348 | 640.498737774437 | 640.498736711241 | -0.807566157962433 |
| 63 | 103876 | 102824.95266294 | 652.192616317819 | 652.192616317815 | 0.200003143496062 |
| 64 | 116370 | 114584.319163239 | 677.761091000768 | 677.761091000772 | 0.555161239420263 |
| 65 | 109616 | 112029.223919552 | 696.820445192428 | -2090.46133425991 | -0.162789317366693 |
| 66 | 98365 | 99105.461477855 | 572.045579370733 | 572.045577906223 | -0.670185536197868 |
| 67 | 90440 | 90779.2064934122 | 547.599080785229 | 547.599080785224 | -0.444632637957359 |
| 68 | 88899 | 88626.5927458957 | 541.753203476281 | 541.753203476285 | -0.134955557602922 |
| 69 | 92358 | 93480.9686723849 | 517.839248829607 | -1553.51774534588 | 0.217054158933852 |
| 70 | 88394 | 88458.9399285321 | 469.965165476788 | 469.965164273854 | -0.272816424885122 |
| 71 | 98219 | 96930.7694404785 | 490.710823321929 | 490.710823321924 | 0.399825728239291 |
| 72 | 113546 | 111610.881581826 | 519.704774254288 | 519.704774254293 | 0.709147570032889 |
| 73 | 107168 | 109079.604864961 | 535.67365984926 | -1607.0209779194 | -0.153488939760987 |
| 74 | 77540 | 80100.6131175231 | 294.2916547047 | 294.29165275592 | -1.45458827818473 |
| 75 | 74944 | 75182.0788709632 | 281.497392514329 | 281.497392514322 | -0.260459152192496 |
| 76 | 75641 | 75369.1087749447 | 281.314628811448 | 281.314628811453 | -0.00472103082157354 |
| 77 | 75910 | 76640.3973137538 | 276.408341768315 | -829.225023531536 | 0.0497842644685614 |
| 78 | 87384 | 86142.1942773807 | 348.017417022648 | 348.017415349597 | 0.454970990010378 |
| 79 | 84615 | 84472.7773240939 | 343.316488745256 | 343.316488745249 | -0.100798482773163 |
| 80 | 80420 | 80513.7621662682 | 335.413233479816 | 335.413233479821 | -0.215001799475477 |
| 81 | 80784 | 81693.9793551161 | 331.437597760312 | -994.312791723178 | 0.0424690042768969 |
| 82 | 79933 | 79830.7115639062 | 315.226881541389 | 315.226879959711 | -0.108303588351293 |
| 83 | 82118 | 81649.5536726147 | 318.561738138246 | 318.56173813824 | 0.0751243295004835 |
| 84 | 91420 | 90259.7996001714 | 333.06108492064 | 333.061084920646 | 0.414348973518977 |
| 85 | 112426 | 111102.216714073 | 241.179063438412 | -723.53718853413 | 1.03069576375044 |
| 86 | 114528 | 114009.068418848 | 259.959038659874 | 259.959036907871 | 0.131618183068245 |
| 87 | 131025 | 129240.861369729 | 291.638724252268 | 291.638724252261 | 0.748013073702597 |
| 88 | 116460 | 117398.99891439 | 271.394543272285 | 271.394543272291 | -0.606312194937714 |
| 89 | 111258 | 112638.954281602 | 292.902602151011 | -878.707804344768 | -0.252781662869138 |
| 90 | 155318 | 151059.758456777 | 549.658757433874 | 549.658755742512 | 1.88353068646197 |
| 91 | 155078 | 154258.855871293 | 555.01849576259 | 555.018495762585 | 0.132366840212403 |
| 92 | 134794 | 136132.396892093 | 525.216293735883 | 525.216293735888 | -0.933489009359589 |
| 93 | 139985 | 141066.492589791 | 507.195230301318 | -1521.58568932412 | 0.221445743789572 |
| 94 | 198778 | 192938.03446935 | 838.461219427074 | 838.461218409667 | 2.5385945427877 |
| 95 | 172436 | 173643.689015425 | 799.447503251507 | 799.447503251503 | -1.00582296090861 |
| 96 | 169585 | 169305.88606916 | 791.596465663218 | 791.59646566322 | -0.256695095794139 |
| 97 | 203702 | 202465.618379822 | 664.846595750956 | -1994.53978689161 | 1.62536956623471 |
| 98 | 282392 | 274345.157031183 | 1105.50185546891 | 1105.50185588845 | 3.52116477071151 |
| 99 | 220658 | 224706.009063932 | 1011.13994715499 | 1011.13994715498 | -2.5351287778705 |
| 100 | 194472 | 196425.885010592 | 968.18028109016 | 968.180281090158 | -1.46357401050132 |
| 101 | 269246 | 264676.124502584 | 715.324701135946 | -2145.97410570484 | 3.37782713743637 |
| 102 | 215340 | 219386.510829187 | 441.757885119505 | 441.757886911507 | -2.27557806507796 |
| 103 | 218319 | 218057.005203262 | 438.592021101198 | 438.592021101194 | -0.0884883429328967 |
| 104 | 195724 | 197417.834007399 | 408.876703427189 | 408.876703427188 | -1.05315340141476 |
| 105 | 174614 | 178031.071352675 | 480.390778326487 | -1441.17233712382 | -0.993616536664587 |
| 106 | 172085 | 172251.666299244 | 444.563869863861 | 444.563871939438 | -0.309745514488841 |
| 107 | 152347 | 153817.232507475 | 412.081645022019 | 412.081645022015 | -0.94313845591642 |
| 108 | 189615 | 185991.231279232 | 455.188713738268 | 455.188713738267 | 1.58695665434821 |
| 109 | 173804 | 176289.355237117 | 490.514401469948 | -1471.54320679017 | -0.509724169230241 |
| 110 | 145683 | 148148.328949683 | 332.572993504038 | 332.572995569408 | -1.41721456154934 |
| 111 | 133550 | 134622.217488968 | 309.587510289904 | 309.587510289897 | -0.692329152607874 |
| 112 | 121156 | 122139.338849772 | 292.850148623141 | 292.850148623139 | -0.639152520045124 |
| 113 | 112040 | 113860.347657147 | 321.591084927681 | -964.773257486522 | -0.430095347640865 |
| 114 | 120767 | 119859.915445079 | 351.819504586883 | 351.819507352888 | 0.281138423769949 |
| 115 | 127019 | 126073.340350737 | 361.203268396351 | 361.203268396346 | 0.292820645572966 |
| 116 | 136295 | 135062.192629329 | 372.099551495368 | 372.099551495367 | 0.431057429346919 |
| 117 | 113425 | 116603.647683099 | 433.047300180576 | -1299.14190306032 | -0.944679950519808 |
| 118 | 107815 | 108283.56028315 | 388.019014296921 | 388.019016719051 | -0.433527509506452 |
| 119 | 100298 | 100715.593464993 | 375.710409190909 | 375.710409190903 | -0.397442208417933 |
| 120 | 97048 | 97077.6038200125 | 370.811404383835 | 370.811404383833 | -0.200530540328668 |
| 121 | 98750 | 99624.7869985173 | 364.003486929875 | -1092.01046352139 | 0.109165709129423 |
| 122 | 98235 | 98068.5833502746 | 354.447751074854 | 354.447753785451 | -0.0951303802756595 |
| 123 | 101254 | 100671.93910438 | 357.813886783526 | 357.81388678352 | 0.112343223323036 |
| 124 | 139589 | 135728.564034307 | 398.791235712838 | 398.791235712838 | 1.73357887207231 |
| 125 | 134921 | 136118.353861422 | 398.818479589059 | -1196.45544100622 | -0.000451441584437512 |
| 126 | 80355 | 85228.6474375608 | 151.650012988744 | 151.650014661655 | -2.54156909832055 |
| 127 | 80396 | 80716.1957340299 | 144.888679238903 | 144.888679238895 | -0.232990766049109 |
| 128 | 82183 | 81930.2273932714 | 146.111574793113 | 146.111574793114 | 0.0534144322632701 |
| 129 | 79709 | 80336.3065278808 | 151.212515888723 | -453.637549489531 | -0.0872549846872228 |
| 130 | 90781 | 89685.1240493351 | 194.179826279363 | 194.179828204333 | 0.455890121828791 |
